A substantial bounce is expected from the 1044 SPX January 2012 target. A final low is estimated at 1025 SPX early 2012. The entire process is mapped out in the symmetry to be an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern encompassing several months early 2012. The target at the green arrow is the Left Shoulder.
This is a market trending downwards. There have been lower highs since late October, and in fact, lower highs since May.
The coloured arrows correlate to my "2008" pattern. Further charts will be coming shortly.
Daily Chart
Nice, SC. That's a bold call. Many analyst hedge their views to uselessness; it's nice to see someone with the courage of his convictions. Now let's see if it pans out! :)
ReplyDeleteThanks, will explain about why to anticipate an inverse H&S etc...
ReplyDeleteinteresting work and bold call!!!I wish you profitable trading :)
ReplyDeletep.s.I agree with your view.But do you have an invalidation point for your scenario if exceeded by SPX?
Sc
ReplyDeleteI understand snp call but how commodities will behave? snp and commodities go together...just a thought
thanks
There is still some positive in my cycles mid part of this week. So some sideways trade and chop for a couple days would make sense now. I expect to be in a full blown selloff soon with late this week, and all of next week looking negative.
ReplyDelete1266 was the high yesterday. If it did trade 5 points or something above that it wouldn't bother me. In terms of invalidation there should be no "significant" breach of yesterday's high.
Also, Silver is finally acting the way that I've been watching for. That is a good validation of my theory because it suggests a bottom for Silver/Gold shortly with the fear trade about to come alive. Silver should bottom in the $29.50 to $30.25 area soon.
Stockboom do you mean Precious metals or other commodities?
ReplyDeleteAll commodities in general
ReplyDeleteSilver looks to be heading to around $29.75. possibly tomorrow. It'll be attractive at that price on the long side. Gold also. Upside for both is actually about equal on a % basis from that level. So what I am saying is that as the S&P is topping Silver and Gold are bottoming.
ReplyDeleteJust like we saw in August, precious metals will move inverse to the S&P as the fear trade comes alive. Commodities such as oil should decline.
I do not agree with you SC. IMO silver is really close to the bottom and from now until friday, silver is expected to rise quite frankly.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIt does appear to be quite difficult to push silver any lower at this point. I am seeing quite a bit of buying pressure in the precious metals
I also feel as though the S&P is getting some good support at these levels. IT seems to have worked off the overbought conditions and is now seeing new buying. I am not interested in being long the S&P here, but I still haven't seen any real selling step in yet, do you see anything negative in the internals other than your cycles?
ReplyDeleteWhat I favour is that Silver trades flat at this level today, gaps down tomorrow putting in a bottom, and then rises steadily for weeks.
ReplyDeleteBoth the financials and NDX are leading down. This has been the case for over a month now. So that goes a long way to confirming what I see in my cycles and other analysis. Everything I use is in agreement.
ReplyDeleteRather than support I see a mkt struggling here at resistance. Since it has been a strong push this last week, it will take a few days for the momentum to burn off. That is why some sideways trade would be normal.
Silver- guys turn on daily TSI, it has nailed silver sell off bottom in may and september. It has not bottomed yet and keeps moving down.
ReplyDeletesilver going straight up
ReplyDeleteSilver did find some support this morning at the trendline going back to Nov 21st. However, I think it will be interesting to see the action overnight...
ReplyDeletesilver shorts may be repositioning to the long side, hence these spikes at the bottom.
ReplyDeletesilver has definitely bottomed. I wouldn't be suprised to see the market make new highs today or tomorrow
ReplyDeleteBlake, what is your auto system showing for Silver? Let us know if that switches to short if you don't mind. Just curious.
ReplyDeleteIt went long at almost exactly $32 just a couple of hours ago. I did not take the signal although I wish I had. I am going to wait till the end of the day to make a decision. Looks very strong here though. The way it is set up, it is extremely doubtful that it could post a sell signal for atleast 6 more hours
ReplyDeleteyou are really that confident that it can basically crash in the next 24 hours SC? Even after this intraday reversal?
ReplyDeleteFeeling fairly confident. You know how sneaky this Silver is. It has that dark side under the surface, loves to make spiky moves that reverse.
ReplyDeleteI'm curious to see what happens tomorrow. NDX trading at yesterday's lows. Mkt are due for a gap down.
by the way, I have another autosystem for gold that is totally unrelated to the silver system and it has still not triggered a buy signal yet. I have been trading gold over silver lately becuase of the margin requirements on silver. It requires too large of a margin in my account for the # of contracts I liek to play and it doesn't leave me enough "comfort" margin for other simultaneous trades.
ReplyDeleteThe auto system for gold will not be able to trigger a buy until maybe Thursday unless gold sells off before end of day. It does not catch every wiggle, but does catch significant bottoms. I find these auto systems to be a great way to stay disciplined. I have about 15 of them. Some day trade, some make swing trades. On average they hold for 5 days or less and each systems makes approximately a 10% return on the account, usually in the market less then 20% of the time.
Ok thanks, interesting auto sytems. Human emotion sure get's in the way of a lot of good trades - that is for sure.
ReplyDeleteunfortunately, I cannot run all 15 at the same time. Backtesting and randomizing the results shows that running all 15 systems would average over a 150% return per year, however there are a few instances in the statistics that show it possible to produce up to a 50% drawdown, which is too high for me. I statistically limit the drawdown to 25-30% and it results in near 100% CAGR over the last 12 years of testing.
ReplyDeleteVery good. SPX holding up, but NDX has a lower high today, and also VIX looking firm.
ReplyDeleteCould be a cycle peak on the INDU here today, but we'll likely finish the year higher than we are now. I'm still thinking the lunar eclipse gets us another low.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/7nbvtdu
ZigZag, what are the differences between your green and red cycle lines? Thanks
ReplyDeleteHi Blake.. green line is next possible low cycle. Sometime around the 9th, or 12th. Lunar eclipse is the 10th.
ReplyDeleteThanks
ReplyDeleteLarge move within 2-3 days.
ReplyDeleteI have a turn date today 7 Dec till 14 Dec.
ReplyDeleteTimer ........ right turn, left turn or U turn
ReplyDeleteok, sell signal here on silver at 32.6...short lived by signal from 32. The short will stop out on a move that hold above 32.8 for more than 2 hours from now.
ReplyDeleteThai,
ReplyDeleteThe analog signal suggests a down move from 7 Dec to 14 Dec.
Blake, a good system u have there. Does your system analyzes purely on technicals only or cycles and astro are also used by the system ? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThank you Blake.
ReplyDeleteEmperor,
ReplyDeleteIt is a good system but probably not as good as you think. I am constantly changing the parameters, but right now it wins about 70% of the time with the average gain about 1.8 times greater than the average loss.
It is purely technical, no cycles.
So far it us still in the short trade from last night, but it will close out if silver keeps going higher, i am traveling right now so i am not sure exactly where it has the stop at this point.
SC, so still waiting for lower low (than yesterday) for silver and gold? When does the time expire for this move?
ReplyDeleteIMO, the bottom for silver this week is around $ 31.50
ReplyDeleteI am quite convinced that silver will go higher today, thursday and friday.
That is why, I have taken a long position now
I'm doing a review of Silver right now. My work shows it heading to $37 - that I am sure of. So the question just simply is whether it bottomed on Nov 21 or not.
ReplyDeleteIf silver doesn't move back below 32.6 in the next hour my system will close short and go long. Getting whipsawed a lot these days. Definitely a tough market to trade.
ReplyDeleteBlack
ReplyDeletesilver did go below 32.60 what is your system suggesting?
Thanks
Got any skin in the game SC?
ReplyDeleteIf so, what?
Stockboom, with silver riding 32.6, there is no edge at the moment with my system. It will Clear up tomorrow or overnight.
ReplyDeleteAlso, keep in mind that my system is extremely short term, playing swings in silver for 8-72 hours. It is not a swing trade indicator, so probably useless to most people that dont day trade.
ReplyDeleteSkin is in! S&P shorts. The strategy here is remarkably simple. Short and cover at 1044 SPX. I see a steady grind down. No bounces of any significance.
ReplyDeleteTraders have been trained now to trade the November whipsaws. So the mkt throws it's curve ball. No whipsaws - steady trend down. Sit and wait for the bottom.