Wednesday, February 26, 2020

$SPX - VIX and Volatility

SPX plummeted after breaking the turquoise fork.

The white support is effectively being tested, and SPX isn't out of the woods until this week is over.  A huge gap is overhead, and SPX is going to attempt to push with a pop next week.


SPX is testing weekly support.


SVXY made a crashy drop after busting the orange, but then hit a support yesterday at blue.  In one week it's dropped almost all it's gain since October.


VIX melted up through the rectangle yesterday like butter.  Resistance becomes support.


VXO testing weekly resistance.


Tuesday, February 25, 2020

TVIX - Short Term Levels

TVIX is cooling off today.

Possibly consolidation with a triangle formation this week.  Watch these short term levels and 50% retracement.

30min Chart

Monday, February 24, 2020

$VXO - 1987 Trendline Update

VXO has formed a trendline from 1987 to 2008.  VXO has been spiking, and has been in a rising trend into the third year now. 

The trendline may be acting as a magnet.  

A test of the 1987 trendline would take VXO up to approximately 65, and surpass all peaks since 2008.


Thursday, February 20, 2020

UVXY - Timing Maturing

UVXY and TVIX will probably see a lower low soon.  Interestingly the declines are becoming shorter and shallower.

The timing is maturing and March looks ripe for a turn. 


Saturday, February 15, 2020

$SPX - Weekly Measured Move

SPX has nearly completed a measured move on the weekly chart.  The rally has been weaker this time than the first rally early in 2019.

A down week this coming week looks probable.  Within the next several weeks the measured move should finish.

A two month selloff is anticipated.    


Monday, February 3, 2020

TVIX and UVXY - Friday the 13th Nightmare Continues...

January was a nightmare for the stock market.

Iran's top General Soleimani was assassinated, 176 people were killed when Iran shot down a passenger plane by mistake, and Kobe Bryant is dead.

Coronavirus has infected 17,205 with a rising death toll of 361 people.  60 million people are quarantined in China.  Countries are quickly closing their borders with the Chinese.  China is becoming isolated, and Coronavirus continues to infect people exponentially.  Fears of a global pandemic went viral.

This is fear, and after fear comes panic.  The selling will only end when panic selling occurs.

In January, the VIX futures curve normalized and moved into backwardation going into March, 2020.  UVXY/TVIX have the advantage with the curve, underpriced relative to VIX.  


UVXY bottomed out, and has been rising in accordance with the pattern.  Price and timing of the turn were accurate.

2 day Chart


November 14th, 2019 analysis:

2 day Chart