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Thursday, December 22, 2011

SPY - Backtest

This may be a backtest of the white trendline going back to the August lows.  The reactions to this white line have been quite violent in the past.  Originally it was the flag boundary in the summer.

Let's see if the market finds this line important.

2hour Chart
Posted by at

14 comments:

  1. sujoDecember 23, 2011 at 7:34 AM

    I'm sorry to ask but you think Dec 27 will be positive. Tsx is closed on the 27th. Can I Gtc order and get it filled on the 27th?

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  2. SCDecember 23, 2011 at 7:48 AM

    Generally the 27th looks quite positive. It could carry into the 28th. Starting on the 28th into month-end looks negative.

    Sometimes the cycle can come in late also.

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  3. BlakeDecember 23, 2011 at 9:08 AM

    SC,

    It appears that gold and silver are not following your framework, do you have any insight as to whether it is a delay of the initial move up, or is this sideways action all that we are going to get prior to another move down? Thanks

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  4. AnonymousDecember 23, 2011 at 9:09 AM

    SC,

    Here are some quick thoughts on the USD wave. Interesting pattern. Projected dollar high is in feb-march 2012 timeframe, if we follow similar timeframes, although time may be squeezing a bit, which would put dollar top closer if its more than 10%, i hear late january as a possibility (makes it 18% time squeeze on this up cycle).

    This date (feb 2012) is interestingly in line with J. Taylor's (FX concepts) view that gold bottoms in february. Your thoughts?

    http://img860.imageshack.us/img860/343/usdwavedec11.png

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  5. SCDecember 23, 2011 at 9:26 AM

    Metals hovering here, but I'd give them until Tues/Wed.

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  6. SCDecember 23, 2011 at 9:27 AM

    I still thinks metals can spike up next week. Next week could be much more volatile.

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  7. SCDecember 23, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    Thanks bluemoon, let me take a look at that. Dates to watch in January that look important are Jan 6-9, and also around Jan 20th.

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  8. MikeDecember 23, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    Won't we need a decent amount of volume to get metals moving up again? Not sure if that would happen during the holidays? Hope you are right though. They are looking very weak at the moment.

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  9. SCDecember 23, 2011 at 9:57 AM

    Gold did spike up last Dec on the 28th.

    On my last Gold chart there is an orange line. Gold is finding solid support at this line so this is one reason I think Gold can move higher.

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  10. MuzzDecember 23, 2011 at 10:42 AM

    Hi SC, the Euro is not participating in the move up in the markets. I do agree that we are nearing some sort of major top. How are you seeing the price action on the S&P today and what is installed over the next week or so?

    SC to you and all the followers have a Merry Christmas and a happy & prosperous new year.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCDecember 23, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    SPX feels toppy. RUT doesn't agree with this rally any more today either. VIX looking firmer. The warning signs are mounting, but we also need to see it play out some more.

    Thanks Muzz! Have youself a wonderful Christmas as well!!

    Merry Christmas to everyone!!!

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  12. ABQDecember 23, 2011 at 11:38 AM

    Merry Xmas SC!

    SPX wedge looks complete, breaking 1261 decicively should confirm....wouldn't be surprse to see a final wedge backtest for a final divergent 5th high. FAS on left, diverged on most recent high, FAZ on the agenda.
    http://screencast.com/t/Spt5tgoZw

    TVIX has been ripping, posted @ 27....more to go IMO, but a dangerous animal - keep your stops!

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  13. SCDecember 23, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    Thanks ABQ! Have a good one!!

    Nice charts as always.

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  14. sammyDecember 23, 2011 at 1:57 PM

    SC Happy Holidays

    http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/update-12-23-2011-merry-christmas-happy-hannukah-to-all/

    ReplyDelete

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