Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
You still like $36 as a high on the rounded top...or lower highs?
I think the rounded top will likely be just slightly higher than the level tested last week. 50 cents or something.I have marked retest the low in red. Silver should make one more run up after that low retest to about $36-7.
Nice call, SC. Reversing my longs from spx 1230 here at SPX 1267. Good luck!!
Thanks, let's see how it unfolds. Bears should have advantage in the early part of the week, bulls in the latter part.
ES 240 ........http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/510/es240.gif/Good trading! joed
SC, have you seen atillas recent chart? is he using $TNX as in 10-year treasury note yield?
He is using a combination of the 10-year treasury note yield and SPX.
thanks, i was trying to re-plot this on stockcharts but can get them to multiply. one can divide there but no multiplying.. go figure
EMINI UPDATEhttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/42/es2403min.gif/Good trading! joed
A little out of the scope of this blog but Greece will now be holding a referendum on the EU debt deal. It's pretty obvious how the vote will go but for our purposes, stocks are really not getting whacked as they should. Any ideas anyone?
Financials have been going sideways all day, just last while now starting to weaken. When is the vote PK? I looked around, but did not see a date anywhere. Thanks.
I still see November 3-4 as the next cycle peak. Retail (RLX) isn't selling off much here..I might do some dip buying here.
They haven't announced a date yet but have confirmed that they will be going to the population for a vote.
I think you may be right, ZZ. Volume was really low on this down move and I have a feeling after initial weakness tomorrow morning we snap back up. Still short from SPX 1267 but ...
EMINI CLOSINGhttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/854/esdaily1031.gif/Good trading! joed
From the price action today, I think your Nov 1st date for a low is looking good SC
I do think the bears have some time, but not a lot of time to work with. I'm going to review the various levels.Let's see if the witches and goblins come out tonight. Happy Halloween!
EMINI UPDATE........http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/841/unledhs.png/Price coming into posted time!Good trading! joed
SC, dollar left huge gap behind in todays break out .. gotta fill it at some point.Question - Why such crazy pattern for silver? are you seeing some fractal thats still in play?thanks.
Yes, it has to do with a long time pattern I've been watching. Hard to be prescise with Silver, but it should be in the ballpark. There should be more downside for Silver still. That likely implies for SPX also.
SC, buck is breaking out ... i've mentioned this before, its following the same pattern as in '08 so far, should be violent move up from here if that fractal is still in play. that probably means market top is in place...
the afterhours shanninigans leads me to think we go lower... break that 1240 area... tape moving sideways .. indicators working off the over sold conditions at least in smaller time frames.. maybe a dip and then rip to the close tommorow...who knows boys.. who knows!
Wow I can't believe what I said before the weekend actually is happening. SnP is down another 2% premarket. It seems that man are predicting that the market will rise towards the end of the day because of the weak sellng ol yesterday. But with such a big gap down, and noiceably panic in the market, it is really hard to say what might happen. Maybe we sell off till Thurs, like I predicted or SC prddicted, beore a meanngful up day. We will see
We're not all that far from the 1187 level that looks important from the geometry. However, my work suggests a bottom is close in terms of time. Today/tomorrow perhaps. I don't know that we make it all the way down to 1187 here. For example it could bottom out, bounce later this week, and test that level later this month. Let's see how things go today. Remember, my cycles look very positive around Nov 3, and a test of 1280's looks likely latter part of the week to me. We also have the fed coming up. We're approaching a tricky spot.
Silver is now only 50 cents from the target.
The Silver target is $31 even at the midfork shown above for SLV.
SC, silver did not come back to test 26 area, may be we continue down leg from here? US buck is gaining momentum to the upside...
Dollar shooting up quite nicely for sure. It is nearing 50% retrace to the early Oct high.
VIX has filled the October 20-21 cycle high gap. Lots of empty space down below..
SPX flirting with the red trendline 1216.
This fits well with your analysis SC;According to SENTIMENTRADER,There were 22 times that the VIX jumped 10% or more for two consecutive days. Following those, the S&P was higher the next day 17 times, a 77% win rate. It was still positive a week later 19 of the 22 times, averaging +1.2%, and also a month later, averaging +2.0%.
It still seems to me the mkt and Silver might have a little more to decline, but time is quickly running out. So bears should start to think more defensively. Yes, those VIX stats do tend to agree with this being a whipsaw rather than a real start to anything more.
EMINI...........Time window of small cycle is now present with an Make Or Break area of price...Good trading! joedhttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/207/esdailycycleallsaveall.gif/
SC,Your expectations are for a rise into weeks' end; if by Friday we find ourselves lower or even at current levels, what would that do/mean to your analysis?
I can't believe we've breached the lows going all the way back to, umm, Thursday. ;-)
Well all I can say is that it looks really positive later this week. So I would be surprised if didn't bounce strongly later this week. Let's reassess along the way, and see the confirmations in the mkt.Lol Zigzag - so true.
Mining stocks which generally tend to lead (albeit somewhat early and in many cases in days) are holding firm on this latest bout of selling in stocks.
EMINI 3 MIN..........going smaller!http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/266/3mines.gif/Good trading! joed
I still think a swing is in effect from 28 Oct to 23 Nov.
EMINI UPDATEhttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/534/3minesb.gif/Good trading! joed
Covered shorts and long spx 1224. Good luck everyone!
Hi SC do you see anymore downside here before the cycle turn date? I was looking at a test of the 1200-1209 area before we might bottom. Thanks SC
I think there is still a good chance of that Muzz. Nevertheless we are getting close, and so have to approach carefully here. Good day for the bears, and don't see confirmation of a turn back up yet. You how it is though sometimes trying to get that last little bit ends up being more of a headache than it is worth.
in '08 it took USD 5 weeks to reach top level from the sept bottom. if we continue going through the same fractal then selling is just starting..
Given Europe's predicament, my guess is that tomorrow on the FED announcement we may hear a somewhat dovish statement. Any thoughts?
EMINI 240 .......LINE IN SAND!http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/444/es240val.gif/Best! joed
Gabe-Ive been following your charts for weeks and they are extremely helpful, thank you. But would you mind explaining the circles (some filled with green, some not)? And any other color-coding you have done.
EMINI 3 MINhttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/543/3miness.gif/
jkThe circles filled are time......the ones that are not are just pointing out areas of support/resistance or interest! Good trading! joed
SC, silver finally had a death cross.. also overall commodities look about ready for another leg down.http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/1327/sc1934873.pnghttp://img252.imageshack.us/img252/2981/sc2164033.png
Counting the weeks from my October cycle low..Week 5 is weak and 10 weeks gets us to November 28th. Me thinks the 76 MA is going to hold…http://tinyurl.com/5t25owuI'd be keeping a close eye on RLX here..http://tinyurl.com/3b5hx8j
1inbluemoon, re: commodities, I agree: http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/crbfallingchannelhindsightnov1.gif/SI: http://screencast.com/t/UJ3PtaCbh Regarding retail, posted this the eve of AMZN's earnings...Najarian continues to state to watch the ratio as a sign of weekness: http://screencast.com/t/lEh9EtVHZe4S