December in particular looks very bearish.
As shown though the end result is anticipated to look much different in 2012 than it did in 2008. Instead of a crash, a massive rally kicks off from the green arrow. Despite the economic malaise, 2012 looks extremely bullish!
Make no mistake, eventually the markets will reflect the deteriorating economic conditions, and my cycle work predicts how and when this will occur.
The 2008 comparison is a convenient way to show what is anticipated next. The main evidence comes from my other cycle work. For example, the symmetry charts indicate another plunge, the cycle analysis looks bearish, and other methods are in agreement. I will outline more specific thoughts as to the important dates, and smaller time frame patterns later.
Some downside early next week is possible, but a solid bounce is anticipated next week before the more bearish cycles start to become active.
Daily Chart
This is the pattern from the 2008 crash:
3day Chart
SnP...............BUY AND HOLD?????
ReplyDeletehttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/718/snp.gif/
Good trading! joed
“MEMORIZING………….WILL NOT MAKE UP FOR WORK”
DIFFERENT TYPES OF FORECASTS……………..
ReplyDeleteI was asked in an email about the Dow CIT chart. There are basically a couple different ways of forecasting……………
CIT DATES………….
Almost everyone does this is some way or another………..it is nothing more than determining which date in the future to expect a turn. One can do this all the way from Astro dates to bar counts and everything in between! This is usually a static count and in reality it depends on what time period in the future one is interested in……this will dictate the approach used! With CIT dates I find the simplest approach is the easiest to consistently use.
FORCASTING…………..
This is a completely different animal………….this approach is much more complex and demands much more attention to detail and takes much more time to perfect. It demands one has filters in effect so that the trader also has a good idea when he is approaching a change in his forecast. This type of approach is giving the trader a very good idea of the time, direction and price ratio of the move into the future……….much like Gann’s forecast of the 1929 crash! CIT dates do none of this but rather concentrate on dates of turns!
I have shown both types will be shown here at different times of the different market moves…………
Good trading,
joed
This is my comment from the 17th:
ReplyDelete"I'm going to look closer at SPX - have been eyeing the 1187 area for a while. It seems the cycle came in early, but it wasn't much early, and I don't see that impacting future dates. Nov 21st still makes sense."
Likely close to a short term bottom, time and price targets met today as expected. Nov 21st is a turn date in my smaller cycles. I think we'll see a strong bounce next to 1270 area. Bearish after that.
With the exception of today, my cycle analysis is quite bullish this week.
ReplyDeleteSC, you think silver bounce is over or are you still expecting 34-35 short term on the futures before continuing lower?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I still think Silver bounces.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletewondering about your cycle work for next week, if for the rest of this week is bullish, would it continue into next week into Dec 1st? and then decline from there? so near the end of next week bearish?
Thanks!
SI: http://screencast.com/t/oe9B5F2fGaz
ReplyDeleteGiddy-up! http://screencast.com/t/ylJXJl6HAoE
RLX: http://screencast.com/t/txpl8JLq
This week is conclusively bullish using many different methods. I have some mixed signals for next week, but I am leaning bearish though it may be able to hold.
ReplyDeleteLet see how things go this week, and we can review later in the week.
So I want to be clear, even though the chart above is quite bearish, that is a bigger picture chart. I wanted to give some notice which is why I posted the chart early.
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting one final whipsaw short squeeze this month to near 1270 before the bottom falls out.
Financials are firming up!
ReplyDeleteSC, appreciate your heads up on the bigger picture.
ReplyDeleteAg and Au seem to have bottomed short term. Any updates on short term upside gold targets? looking at 1720-1730's as the top of the multiyear channel, not sure if its got momentum to go higher..
I haven't looked at the short term movement for Gold as much as I have for Silver. Gold looks really cheap at this price.
ReplyDeleteJust eyeballing it, a bounce to $1760 or better looks possible next.
EMINI CYCLE FOLLOW UP..........
ReplyDeleteWell the dio buyers got their dip....lol....all %50 of it so far! Good trading! joed
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/3/eminidailycycleupdate.gif/
SC, minor Bradley turn date coming up - nov 22/23 then major dec 28th. rally into the second turn date then bye-bye 1000's?
ReplyDeletehttp://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/bradley2011.GIF
SC
ReplyDeleteDo you ever explain your cycle work? How you do it?
Zigzag
Been trying to catch up reading as I am new! Are you saying you have been holding all this time into this correction! Your last post!
"One giant ramp is about to commence. Hope you've been buying the dips.
This cycle doesn't end until January and possibly March.. "
Tx, I am new here and appreciate al the posts and work! Syd
gabe
ReplyDeleteNice cycle chart........real accurate ! tx, syd
Sydneice, I've been buying at my cycles. I went long at my cycle lows on August 9th and Oct 3rd. I was short at my cycle peak on July 22nd. I am up over 600 ES points since July and I continue to buy on the dips.
ReplyDeleteWelcome Syd,
ReplyDeleteSome of the cycle methods I use are relatively straightforward to show and explain. I show the symmetry which I think is quite helpful in seeing what comes next. Equal time cycles are easy to show as well. Also I often explain various price patterns.
The turn dates that I have been indicating, and whether each day looks bullish or bearish comes from my "cycle analysis" method.
This one is difficult to show. It is an analytical compilation of data with calculations involved. In the future I plan to show the results in graphic form. That will make it easier to explain also.
Silver surging up! I am reviewing my upside target. I suspect it is too low by about $1.
ReplyDeleteI want to review further, but the revised target would be about $36.50 for the Silver future.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the silve update SC.
ReplyDeleteYou still think that silver finds that target in the next 5 trading days or so?
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletewondering if today's SPY action so far still correspond with your timing cycle with it being bullish for the rest this week? is this some short of minor pullback before the big bounce? cause it is slowly drifting downward right now.
Thanks!
For Silver I'll refresh that chart, probably take longer, could reach that target roughly 10 trading days. Steady climb, few dips.
ReplyDeleteStill bullish for SPX short term, should start to catch hold soon.
Starting to perk up...
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteYour 1187 target was pretty accurate yesterday, wondering if you may have an idea on this week highest bull target for spx?
Thanks!
I want to look at the target for SPX some more, and will have charts on that, expecting a good strong bounce.
ReplyDeleteSyd, what made you pick on my post anyway?!? Anyone who has bought at my cycles has made money on them, and it seems like saying the words "buy the dip" is taboo with a few here. What a hassle…I'm done posting.... Zig out.
ReplyDeleteZigZag,
ReplyDeleteI would hate to see you go. I have both enjoyed and respected your excellent and timely posts. I think there is a misunderstanding here (and I do agree with you that there is a certain arrogance with some posts)with regards to the time horizon involved with the various posters. Some are day-traders others put on positions for a few days and yet others (like yourself I believe) focus more on the intermediate type of trends which is where i think your analysis has been very accurate. Of course there will be times when things don't go as well but that should not be a reason to stop posting.
Don't sweat it ZigZag. Your work has been excellent, and much appreciated. Your point of view is more of a big picture, and I am in agreement in the big picture as well. The bulls are going to surprise in dramatic fashion in 2012!
ReplyDeleteSC, I appreciate your work. ZigZag, I enjoy your posts especially when they give an alternate point of view.
ReplyDeleteZigZag shoot me an email if you don't mind, thanks.
ReplyDeletecyclicalanalyst@gmail.com
NDX holding well today, that's bullish.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteWith only 1.5 trading trading days left you still expect a strong rally?
Yes, taking it's sweet time getting going, still strong rally expected, and could carry into next week.
ReplyDeleteZigZag - could I get your Email address? I trade on the intermediate cycles and very much appreciate your perspectives and your approach.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeletewith all due respect..............unless tomorrow and friday are massive up days the cycles are in question. It might be helpful to give some more color on how they work, when they work best and why they miss.
EXAMPLE: Not calling you out just trying to understand why some times it works and why it doesn't
"With the exception of today, my cycle analysis is quite bullish this week.'
"This week is conclusively bullish using many different methods."
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteSPY AH just got a nose dive. Arent sure what happen there exactly, thinking this dive may continue into tomorrow as well. Curious are you still seeing the bullishness for the rest of this week? As well, Is there even enough volume to see this bounce high for the rest of the week given the fact that Thursday is a holiday, arent sure if market open on friday either.
I remember you mention next week could be bearish starting on the 28th, is that still in affect?
Thanks!
Let me shed some light on these cycles with charts later.
ReplyDeleteYesterday, the 21st, I was favoring for the low. That has worked ok, though the bounces have just been modest thus far. I'm ok with that. I still like the probability for a strong bounce next.
I'll give a window of about a week for a bounce here. It is more Dec that looks bearish, Nov has always looked to be more whipsaws than anything.
DD_Ing
ReplyDeletezzcycle23@gmail.com
The lack of a meaningful bounce could portend a more bearish December. I do agree we should see a decent bounce here but it must get going quickly if it has any chance of getting up to 1250-1260. If we crack here and fall down into the 1150 zone, i think the best we can hope for in terms of a bounce will be back to 1220-1230 before the December swoon comes along.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteThe core of what you have been saying is that other than monday this week looks bullish and now it's a window of another week?
Forgive me if I'm a bit confused but do the cycles have windows of a week or more?
SC
ReplyDeleteThanks for your help as I am new and trying to figure out a trading style……I appreciate all your work and that I know it is!!!
Zig
Not sure why asking a question was taken as picking on your post! Just trying to see if you trade one way or both…..and if one way is a style using cycles! Not sure why my post made you so hyper sensitive but hide your dog! Lol……..once again just trying to figure out a style for myself!
BTW…..I have learned more from yours, SC’s and Gabes posts then al the newsletters I have seen and yours are free……..so ……thanks! Syd
ES CYCLE FOLLOW UP ......NIGHT SESSION EXIT!
ReplyDeletehttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/707/escyclefollow.gif/
Good trading! joed
ES is tanking, we could have a crash tomorrow or Thursday. Bevy of bad news from US, to Asia, to Europe.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts on the market for sharing.
ReplyDeletehttp://timecycles-timer.blogspot.com/2011/11/22-nov-thoughts.html
SS76...agree, all technicals (kelt channels, BB's, VIX) are aligning with the crash senario, ala from previous flash crash. Still maintaining mid-1100's as initial target, with revisions for lower, pending the action...62 is VIX P&F target, although that is a HUGE move. Should we obtain, sub 1100 is in order...prefer that happens later in the cycle. Agree with SC, take it one day at a time. Whatever side of the tape you are on, GLTA.
ReplyDeleteContemplated playing HVU however figured thanksgiving weekend would have resulted in a more bullish market kind of in line with SC's cycles, however looks like that is not going to pan out. We'll see where we are in the morning, but thinking Cash might be the best place to be.....or betting on Natural Gas for a short bet.
ReplyDeleteThis week looks bullish, next week looks mixed. I think bottom out right here, and choppy move higher. The next spot I am eying for a top is Dec 6th.
ReplyDeleteS&P futures are down, but look at the nasdaq futures, they are just testing the level of this morning. Holding quite well actually.
I'm liking Silver upside, $4 more up to $36.50 on the Silver future.
Gutsy SC. Gutsy.
ReplyDeleteSydneice, I misunderstood your comment. I will hide my dog :-)
ReplyDeleteZig
ReplyDeleteToo late he pissed on my leg! lol
One last ?......is your style to buy at the Oct low and hold this retrace and keep buying into it holding through this or are you stopped out...........trying to buy again? Thanks in advance! Syd
Sorry about that. I need to get a new dog. lol
ReplyDeleteI'm still holding from the Oct 3rd cycle low and have been adding on this drop. Next peak in cycle measures to mid January and then mid March.