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Thursday, November 24, 2011

$SPX - Short Term Bottom

SPX hit the orange midfork and the white trendline.  I am confident that this level holds as a short term bottom.  Next, a significant bounce is expected to minimum 1240 into December 6th.

The symmetry did follow through with a move down from point 6.  Price is on the way to point 7 which is anticipated to be substantially lower than the early October low (point 5).  Watch out for the short squeeze into Dec 6th though.

Notice that this pattern is not a mirror image, but this is a typical example of symmetry.  Point 6 on the left side was very choppy, and that was why I was expecting whipsaws early in November during point 6 on the right side.

2hour Chart
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35 comments:

  1. PKNovember 24, 2011 at 1:53 PM

    Indeed a short squeeze here is not only possible but it could carry the market to your targeted level (1240) within a couple of days.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SantaNovember 24, 2011 at 2:37 PM

    Hi SC

    Can you show how you pin point exactly that point 7 dot on the right side around Dec6? still new at this cycle work. Cause for people who is still new at looking at this chart like myself, it looks like a random dot on whole bunch lines.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  3. SCNovember 24, 2011 at 3:33 PM

    Point 7 (blue) isn't actually shown on this chart. Point 7 would be equivalent to the green arrow on my SPY 2008 comparison chart.

    Agree this chart is a little "busy". Looking for a bounce next into all of the intersecting lines - white oval area.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousNovember 24, 2011 at 4:41 PM

    SPY WKLY..........FROM AN ANDREWS VIEW

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/39/spywklyandrews.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  5. SS76November 24, 2011 at 4:55 PM

    SC, will the high for silver coincide with the high for the SPX in your opinion? Cause I'd love to sell my Silver at that point then buy HVU.....

    ReplyDelete
  6. SamiNovember 24, 2011 at 5:13 PM

    Gabe, where do you see the ES bottoming tommorow or next week?

    Please advice and what is your upside target for the next few weeks?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  7. SCNovember 24, 2011 at 6:01 PM

    Yes SS76, I think both line up very close in time to top out.

    ReplyDelete
  8. ckoreyNovember 24, 2011 at 7:25 PM

    SC,

    Thanks for your work but honestly how can you trust it?

    This week was supposed to be bullish by your model and the market tanked 60 SPX points

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCNovember 24, 2011 at 8:55 PM

    No, I was bearish into the 21st. So it hasn't traded much lower.

    ReplyDelete
  10. TimerNovember 24, 2011 at 9:27 PM

    I think the turn date will be between 25-28, with more bias on 28 than on 25.

    ReplyDelete
  11. ckoreyNovember 24, 2011 at 9:31 PM

    SC,

    Nov 21st you said....."This week is conclusively bullish using many different methods."

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCNovember 24, 2011 at 9:53 PM

    I liked the 21st the best for a bottom. There was a bottom on the 21st low 1180's and some decent bounces up to 1200 from there as well. We're lower now, but not much from Monday either. What I saw as bullish just translated into muted bounces. That's the way it goes sometimes. Things are slow with the holiday week. Perhaps I should have put a little more weight on that fact.

    This week wasn't great, but my turn dates worked out very well overall in Nov.

    ReplyDelete
  13. ABQNovember 24, 2011 at 10:18 PM

    Timer - Ditto. Getting a number of fibs on various sectors/indices on the 28th. The EUR/USD & VIX should be a concern if you are long...JMHO.

    ReplyDelete
  14. SCNovember 25, 2011 at 7:09 AM

    Symmetry and Geometry worked great to mark the top:

    This is what I said on Oct 29th:

    "I am satisfied that a top is already in place, or just a few points. This is apparent because the geometry is near perfect already. Notice the lines crossing at the dark blue vertical cycle line. That geometry is only off by a few points. Let's say up to 5 points approx.

    What I am anticipating are 2 large whipsaws with upsurges at Nov 3 +/1 and Nov 14 +/1. Lower highs are favored for those, but yes "fakebreaks" are possible.

    There is momentum to this rally obviously so bears need to be patient in waiting for that to fizzle. You'll know it is just about ready when the crowd becomes convinced in a Christmas rally scenario. Once it gets started on the downside it'll be similar to the first week of Aug.

    I want to be very clear though a "2008 like move" is not what I am seeing at all. In fact, I am looking forward to going long when the crowd calls for that scenario (which they will). I have done the work already and know which index to play on that bull move. It is going to be really something. No point showing that chart until the right time.

    Thank you"


    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx-next-week.html

    ReplyDelete
  15. PKNovember 25, 2011 at 8:22 AM

    I will grant you the above SC but at the same time you must stand up for the times that things don't go as planned. I find that when things do not work out, just like this week for example, you attempt to portray a different picture that what actually is. Your insistence that this week is basically according to your forecasted analysis is a case in point.

    ReplyDelete
  16. PKNovember 25, 2011 at 8:29 AM

    I would also like to hear what other contributors to this site have to say regarding my above comments. If everyone else feels differently, then I will have to admit to myself that I am wrong and missing something.

    ReplyDelete
  17. SamiNovember 25, 2011 at 8:37 AM

    PK.. nobody is right 100% of the time.
    To be honest I think you are being rude and if you don't like the information found on this side you should kindly shut your mouth and F&*876 off and go troll somewhere else :)

    ReplyDelete
  18. The HookNovember 25, 2011 at 8:38 AM

    You are correct. Good site, would be great if SC would not characterize a large plunge, indeed the worst Thanksgiving week IN HISTORY as "sideways".

    ReplyDelete
  19. SamiNovember 25, 2011 at 8:40 AM

    I have yet to see you offer anything positive on here ... and for you to Bash SC and all his hardwork to provide "FREE" I repeat "FREE" information for the public... its unbelievable.


    so again please ... kindly F&^% off

    ReplyDelete
  20. PKNovember 25, 2011 at 8:42 AM

    Ok Sami,

    Have a great Thanksgiving day week end.

    ReplyDelete
  21. ZNovember 25, 2011 at 8:52 AM

    Guys I would not fight the trend at the present time. The 10 EMA on the hourly chart is still rejecting any advancement including today. I will not go long until we close above it.

    ReplyDelete
  22. phantomNovember 25, 2011 at 9:04 AM

    i agree with you, PK. SC is of coarse wrong at time, (who is'nt: occupational hazard) in terms of time frame, but he does'nt admit it.

    Sami, i have been following the blog for many months. PK has been a great commentator . your comments and PK's response show your lack of class and his class.

    happy thanksgiving weekend to all

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCNovember 25, 2011 at 9:04 AM

    This week I was right about a decline into Monday, but we have not seen the bounce since then. My record is far from perfect, and that is ok.

    We don't need to be right about every detail to make money. No, I didn't get this week right, but I am still having a good month.

    ReplyDelete
  24. PKNovember 25, 2011 at 9:09 AM

    SC,

    I have been critical of you in the past but in all fairness I have extended KUDOS on numerous occasions when they were rightly deserved. Indeed no one is right all of the time and what I have tried to bring across on a couple of occasions is that it is okay to be wrong, just accept, say so, and move on. The one good thing about this game is that as long as you practice good risk management, the trains keep coming and coming.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AnonymousNovember 25, 2011 at 9:11 AM

    EMINI CYCLE FOLLOW UP

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/406/72213947.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  26. ABQNovember 25, 2011 at 9:15 AM

    agree....things could get nasty here with all of the macro news. I see two patterns, one could have us plunging into/on Monday, the other has us in a bottoming process here. EUR/USD & VIX are the charts to pay attention to here, IMO.

    Regarding blog comments, personally I find this FREE blog very appealing with all of the contributors. If one just criticizes and doesn't add value via charts/positions, then they have no right to be judgemental. SC could flip a switch & shut this down, then how much would we learn from one another. Just my 2 cents.....

    ReplyDelete
  27. UnknownNovember 25, 2011 at 9:37 AM

    SC, you are a nice and classy guy. However, you need to admit that your calls sometime do not pan out. That way you will get more respect.

    You have made many BAD calls since summer. For instance the short silver trade in July, you missed the free fall in August, and the horrible severe decline in mid October. Nothing being wrong, but must admit and look for the new set up.

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/10/spy-plan-next-week-severe-decline-setup.html

    ReplyDelete
  28. SCNovember 25, 2011 at 9:40 AM

    Traders right now are reluctant to buy this dip, and that is because of memories late July/Early Aug. It is natural to feel this way.

    The market "like" to alternate patterns. It'll bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SCNovember 25, 2011 at 9:53 AM

    Yes, I have made a few bad calls, and then had to rework and regroup to get it right.

    I'm quite pleased with my current charts and patterns.

    ReplyDelete
  30. ABQNovember 25, 2011 at 9:57 AM

    Interesting bond action today, either contagion fears or reallocation & this rally sticks, IMO.

    This is what keeps me out of silver in the near term:
    http://screencast.com/t/7O9CRKz3ENq

    ReplyDelete
  31. ZigZagNovember 25, 2011 at 10:11 AM

    For some reason my post vanished. Trying it again..

    FWIW, this is how I found the March low and the July 22nd peak. The INDU alignment was today, but this could extend to Monday..

    $XII
    http://tinyurl.com/7lwvve8

    ReplyDelete
  32. SCNovember 25, 2011 at 10:26 AM

    Thanks ZZ, strange.

    I have a chart coming for Silver. Spotted something in the symmetry that is interesting. I like the Silver long, same target early Dec $36.50 for the future.

    ReplyDelete
  33. AnonymousNovember 25, 2011 at 11:21 AM

    SC what are your thoughts about all technicals , candle sticks, and others pointing for futher downside in the upcoming week?

    ReplyDelete
  34. SCNovember 25, 2011 at 11:32 AM

    Sami, I just see the downside is really minimal. Maybe a little first thing Monday morning. There is plenty of upside.

    The gloom is so thick now, you can cut it with a knife. I'm very bullish short term.

    ReplyDelete
  35. SCNovember 25, 2011 at 11:53 AM

    New Silver chart is UP (pardon the pun)!

    ReplyDelete

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