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Wednesday, November 9, 2011

$SPX - Tested Midfork

The orange midfork was tested.  Today is the weakest day of the week in my cycle analysis.  The market is still in a sideways whipsaw zone this month from what I see.  Around Nov 14th looks very positive so a pullback should be limited to this week.

I have a plan for December, and will outline that soon, but it is better not to get too far ahead of the market.   

15min Chart
Posted by at

38 comments:

  1. ABQNovember 9, 2011 at 6:14 AM

    Thanks SC....looking for a test of the neckline here on ES: http://screencast.com/t/LBijKYccP

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  2. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 8:12 AM

    Guys what do you think about this long term buck projection? http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/844/usdxnovember11longterm.png

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  3. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 8:23 AM

    50/200MA bullish cross in USD in october supports the theory:

    http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/3275/sc5446473.png

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  4. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 9:31 AM

    That dollar chart makes sense to me for 2012.

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  5. curiousmindNovember 9, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    SC,

    You mentioned before that there will be no Santa rally, only a lump of coal from Santa. It does seem like that everyone is expecting a Santa rally to come, all these hope has prevented any follow through selling. It seems like even the bears don't think the market will drop until 2012!! because of this, your theory might just play out perfectly, when everyone expects Santa to give them presents, they get coal instead. What is your year end target for the S and P?

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  6. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 9:44 AM

    Yes that is how I see it. Whipsaws in Nov. There is not much time for a pullback this week, around Nov 14 looks very strong, and also around Dec 1 looks strong.

    December looks very weak...gloomy with lumps of coal for sure. I do have a target in mind, and also a plan for early 2012.

    Let's leave it at that for now. I'll have the specifics for Dec later this month, but it's best to focus on the Nov mkt for now.

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  7. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 9:46 AM

    The mkt for tomorrow looks more positive.

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  8. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    here is 40 year buck, major buck rally could be around the corner.. perhaps euro collapse? gold could pick up some of that fear trade money..

    http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9870/usdxnovember11longtermy.png

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  9. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    SC, so short term you are looking for silver to test 27 again, gold hit 1700 or so, then silver makes it back up to 37, gold goes after 1900+, perhaps making higher high, then both metals top. Am i getting this right?

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  10. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 10:42 AM

    Silver is just starting the rounded top phase so I see it going sideways for a few weeks here yet.

    After that, then yes, that is the picture I see for the metals.

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  11. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 10:45 AM

    Thank you SC. honestly silver is getting so volatile that staying here for few weeks is unlikely IMO, time is accelerating, perhaps we crunch through these targets much faster. time will tell. again thanks for your input!

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  12. ABQNovember 9, 2011 at 10:58 AM

    Gabe - Thanks for your fib charts....they are awesome!

    Filled Sell TZA Market 31.651 -- -- 13:56:17 11/09/11
    Order No. 8167909440 Direxion Shs Etf Tr Dly S... Entered:13:56:16 11/09/11 Reuse


    Filled Buy TZA Market 28.449 -- -- 15:47:35 11/08/11

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  13. ABQNovember 9, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    Letting ERY run...the bloated XLE needs to let some air out: http://screencast.com/t/2fr59e8tW27

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  14. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 11:14 AM

    My cycle work suggested a decline Nov 8/9, we got it.

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  15. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 11:30 AM

    The yellow line may be a target.

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  16. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 11:31 AM

    Great call SC. So no follow through tomorrow?

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  17. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 11:35 AM

    The most probable might be bounce tomorrow, bottom Fri not much lower than today.

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  18. ZigZagNovember 9, 2011 at 11:37 AM

    INDU has been positive 10 out of 10 years from Nov 12th to Jan 2nd..My cycle says it's going to be 11.

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  19. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 4:27 PM

    SC, i'm looking at my chart and silver seems ready for a take down to your target..

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  20. ABQNovember 9, 2011 at 6:14 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 10:10 PM

    SC, do you have any thoughts on the euro and how long it can go in this dollar bull cycle thats about to start?

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  22. StockboomNovember 10, 2011 at 3:32 AM

    Bluemoon, what target you talking for silver?

    Thanks

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  23. AnonymousNovember 10, 2011 at 8:11 AM

    Silver, may be done selling for now. Waiting for indicators to catch up for a full blown sell signal. Looking for 30-27.

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  24. AnonymousNovember 10, 2011 at 8:22 AM

    over all downtrend in metals seems to have started though.

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  25. SpudthorpeNovember 11, 2011 at 7:58 AM

    SC,

    What are the chances your cycle is off by a day and today is the major bullish day rather than Monday?

    Given how strong the market is today, it's hard to imagine Monday will be even stronger...

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  26. SCNovember 11, 2011 at 8:49 AM

    Using this method, it does line up on Monday. Actually it shows up as one of the strongest days I've seen all year.

    This method has been calling the turn dates really well, although it is not perfect. The extremes such as Monday usually are quite reliable, but we have seen quite a strong day already today.

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  27. SCNovember 11, 2011 at 9:02 AM

    NDX is weaker. Let's see if there is some pullback later today. We're trading above the turquoise line, a pullback to backtest that line is possible to 1250 area.

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  28. ZigZagNovember 11, 2011 at 9:19 AM

    Buy the dips.....The cycle chart that I've been posting here since my October 3rd cycle low says we're gonna party like it's 1998.

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  29. AnonymousNovember 11, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    Zig Zag, so you think the dollar will continue down trend then?

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  30. AnonymousNovember 11, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    ES 240 MIN..........

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/406/es2401111.gif/


    Good trading! joed

    “IF YOU HAVE NOT PUT IN THE WORK YOU WILL NOT UNDERSTAND”

    ReplyDelete
  31. AnonymousNovember 11, 2011 at 10:43 AM

    TNA AUTO SYSTEM........

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/508/tnaspreadsheet1111.gif/

    SWING RESULTS RATHER THAN BUY AND HOLD!

    GOOD TRADING! joed


    “KNOWING WHEN TO TRADE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHICH LINE TO DRAW”

    ReplyDelete
  32. ZigZagNovember 11, 2011 at 11:10 AM

    1inbluemoon, dollar will likely trend down as seasonal strength takes the markets up into my larger January cycle. There will be some wild whipsaws along the way. The next weekly SPX cycle is the week of November 28th. Maybe a pause that week before final push into January..

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  33. curiousmindNovember 11, 2011 at 2:51 PM

    Today's action is kind of eerie. I know we have a big up day, volume is abysmal, normally volatility collapses on a day like tday. However, I noticed that VIX is actually higher at the end of the day thanthe beginning of the day when the S and P was only at 1256. This is highly unusual, i noticed in the past that this kind of disconnect usually means a plunge is around the corner. I guess we shall see next week

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  34. DuzNovember 11, 2011 at 6:15 PM

    gaberocks11 ,
    The TNA auto system is impressive . Do you have any subscription service for this service ?

    ReplyDelete
  35. SS76November 11, 2011 at 6:55 PM

    Curious, I noticed this too. Interesting isn't it? Perhaps we get some upward movement before a big plunge heading into the 28th when the cycles are suggesting weakness...

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  36. AnonymousNovember 11, 2011 at 8:09 PM

    Duz.........

    No, I have no subscription......I used to post it live on my blog, but now I just periodically post the results just to show what is possible! I have taught it in the past! Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  37. SpudthorpeNovember 11, 2011 at 11:13 PM

    Gabe, would you consider running a webinar on your trading methods? I'm sure people here (including me) would be willing to pay.

    I am familiar with a wide variety of trading methods, but some of the stuff you post is unfamiliar to me - and interesting. Thanks...

    ReplyDelete
  38. AnonymousNovember 12, 2011 at 3:49 AM

    Spud................

    Have not thought about it ........as I stated I have been part of some very large trading forums and was recently offered a private room in a large trading fib web side, but I have found to lay the base properly it takes time and most are not willing to apply themselves, so I have mainly settled on mentoring a few a year as I can control the results.........you can email me and I would be glad to think over your thoughts~ Best, joed

    trakktrader80@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete

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