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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

$SPX - Final Whipsaw

SPX had been bouncing on the yellow midfork since mid-October.  Finally it broke down below, and met the time target of Nov 21st and price target of 1187.  The red fork line has been holding back a rally, but a break out above is expected soon. 

A solid bounce is anticipated next into Dec 6th.  The price target may be approximately 1260 which would also be a backtest of the yellow midfork.  It should bounce this week as the cycle analysis is bullish.  Next week is mixed and may indicate chop eventually rallying up into the time target. 

30min Chart















The Silver chart is quite bullish short term.  A bounce is anticipated to near $36.50 on the Silver future.  Don't overstay.... 

30min Chart
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34 comments:

  1. SCNovember 22, 2011 at 9:07 PM

    NDX holding up quite well today, and also have a lower high for VIX this week from last week. The market is providing some bullish hints.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ckoreyNovember 22, 2011 at 9:18 PM

    Are we looking for a test of the lower yellow line tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  3. ckoreyNovember 22, 2011 at 9:21 PM

    And if these next 1.5 days are that bullish what level do you thing we will be on friday with half a day of trading?

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCNovember 22, 2011 at 9:26 PM

    I haven't really looked at where we might be on Friday, maybe could test around the turquoise line.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousNovember 23, 2011 at 3:46 AM

    TBONDS DAILY UPDATE

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/828/tbondsdaily.gif/

    HAPPY BIRD DAY TO ALL!! ENJOY YOUR
    TIME........joed

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousNovember 23, 2011 at 3:55 AM

    Happy Thanksgiving!!

    Wishing you all a most wonderful Thanksgiving Day filled with great food, loving family and friends. . . and

    of course,

    incredible thanks for all that blesses your life each and every day throughout the year!!

    Happy, Happy Thanksgiving

    & Many Continued Blessings to All of You

    joed

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousNovember 23, 2011 at 5:01 AM

    SC, perhaps that mid-fork test is it for silver (and market). Look at the dollar gaining momentum.

    ReplyDelete
  8. beetlejuiceNovember 23, 2011 at 6:23 AM

    Well the USD has bucked the expectation of a bearish breakdown from the wedge and has broken up.

    Vey dollar bullsih and market bearish

    ReplyDelete
  9. SantaNovember 23, 2011 at 7:21 AM

    Hi SC

    Curious are you still seeing the most bullish week for this week? curious about if cycle tell something differently, cause we been going down everyday so far, worst day today.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  10. ckoreyNovember 23, 2011 at 7:28 AM

    SC,

    ??????????

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 7:40 AM

    S&P currently down 15 points from Monday. Yes there has been some downside, but this is not exactly an exciting move for the bears.

    I still favor a bounce. I'll get serious about shorting around Dec 6th.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 7:42 AM

    Interesting that we are trading at the same level as this time last year late Nov 2010.

    ReplyDelete
  13. ckoreyNovember 23, 2011 at 7:47 AM

    But why do you think the cycles failed?

    ReplyDelete
  14. PKNovember 23, 2011 at 7:58 AM

    SC

    I think one of the problems with your site is that you attempt to please all the traders/investors irrespective of their respective time frames. If I am a short term trader, then i consider this week's analysis to have failed. Clearly there has been nothing resembling a bullish move since Monday and every little bounce has been met with more selling. Now, if you were addressing position traders for example, then 30-40-50 points on the S&P are nothing thus the move since Monday fits within the parameters. I believe when you reveal your analysis you should state clearly what time frame you are talking about.

    ReplyDelete
  15. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 8:00 AM

    In this case, I just think it has been a quiet week with the holiday. So the cycle positives this week have been subdued. Instead of a bullish move off Monday's low, we have seen sideways instead. To me this means the timing is pushed out for the next high.

    The next positive extreme is Dec 6th. So I think we form a base here and chop higher into Dec 6th.

    ReplyDelete
  16. The HookNovember 23, 2011 at 8:09 AM

    Sideways??? You are deluded indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  17. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 8:12 AM

    I favored Monday for the low, and we did trade 15 points lower today. That is acceptable to me in this current volatile mkt.

    ReplyDelete
  18. PKNovember 23, 2011 at 8:19 AM

    Tuesday's price action was acceptable; today it is not!

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 8:27 AM

    NDX still much firmer relative to SPX, that should give bulls the upper hand.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousNovember 23, 2011 at 8:32 AM

    EMINI DAILY


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/818/eminidaily1123.gif/


    "The small cycle never overcomes the larger
    that it is part of, no matter what time frame
    you trade"

    ReplyDelete
  21. ABQNovember 23, 2011 at 8:44 AM

    VIX very mute given this move, locking some in here...
    11/18/2011 11:32:52 Bought TZA @ 31.7484
    11/23/2011 11:38:56 Sold TZA @ 37.7132

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousNovember 23, 2011 at 8:54 AM

    EMINI INTRA DAY

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/812/eminiintra1123.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 9:06 AM

    For SPX sideways chop for another week may be in order almost a repeat of last year at this time. 1170-1200, and then a better move up near Dec 6th.

    ReplyDelete
  24. SantaNovember 23, 2011 at 9:14 AM

    Hi SC

    It near 1170 right now, are you seeing we heading to 1200 from here? then higher towards Dec 6? confused when you say sideways chop for another week (when you say chop you mean lower than 1170 next week?)

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  25. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 9:16 AM

    No, what I am thinking is we may rattle up and down in the 1170-1200 range a few times and then surge up around Dec 6th.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SantaNovember 23, 2011 at 9:24 AM

    Hi SC

    you dont think we go down to 1150 level friday or sometime early next week?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  27. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 9:53 AM

    Well we'll see, I think SPX holds around this level.

    Silver is my favorite. I'm working off the same pattern that specified the spike down and rounded top earlier in Nov. I'm satisfied the next significant move is to the $36.50 area.

    ReplyDelete
  28. PKNovember 23, 2011 at 10:19 AM

    ...and silver is behaving real well today. A vote of confidence for the "risk-on trade" possibly.

    ReplyDelete
  29. ZigZagNovember 23, 2011 at 12:17 PM

    Could be hitting a low on the weekly...

    http://tinyurl.com/blqxx24

    ReplyDelete
  30. SCNovember 23, 2011 at 12:27 PM

    Nice chart ZZ, thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  31. PKNovember 23, 2011 at 1:02 PM

    Well, it looks like there will be plenty of indigestion over the next few days. This is a real shitty close.

    ReplyDelete
  32. ZigZagNovember 23, 2011 at 5:42 PM

    INDU daily cycle...

    http://tinyurl.com/cc2dete

    The last two closing candle lows from the double bottom measured to today. Starting out from from the March low we hit some interesting areas as well, and is in alignment with today….

    ReplyDelete
  33. PKNovember 23, 2011 at 5:54 PM

    interesting chart Zig

    ReplyDelete
  34. SS76November 23, 2011 at 7:43 PM

    SC, hope you're right about Silver! Bought at $32 today.

    ReplyDelete

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