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Sunday, November 6, 2011

Silver - Update

Silver did spike down, back up, and now should be entering the "Rounded Top" zone.  Probably the price trends sideways in a relatively tight range. 

Once the Rounded Top completes, then a test of near the late September low is anticipated to follow.  I'll have more to say on timing at a later date.

30min Chart

SPX continues to trade sideways with whipsaws.  There will be more detailed analysis soon with dates to watch, and reasoning for the next significant moves approaching.    

30min Chart

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38 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 7, 2011 at 6:18 AM

    GOLD UPDATE FROM POSTED BOTTOM

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/10/goldmq.gif/

    Good Trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCNovember 7, 2011 at 9:09 AM

    Very quiet, financials are holding quite well today.

    ReplyDelete
  3. SpudthorpeNovember 7, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    SC, are you still expecting a decline into Nov 8-9? Do you think the decline has already started, or do you expect some strength later today before the real decline starts? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCNovember 7, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    For today I am seeing some mild positives from this point. Much of my cycle work is fairly subdued for this week though. There aren't extremes either way. I do see some indications for weakness into 8-9th, but possibly is is only mild.

    The next extreme is around Nov 14th, and looks very positive. Let's see how the mkts hold next few days, then things become favorable to the bulls.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousNovember 7, 2011 at 10:38 AM

    SC... With silver already hovering around 35.. don't you think any up move in the market is going to push the Silver market over the prices levels where you have set the formation top to?

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousNovember 7, 2011 at 11:06 AM

    EMINI DAY TRADING

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/266/es3min117.gif/

    Easy day trading today!

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousNovember 7, 2011 at 12:34 PM

    EMINI FOLLOW UP INTO CLOSE



    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/440/es3min117b.gif/

    Good Trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  8. phantomNovember 7, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    sc,
    whats your target for s/p for the next year end, for traders(speculators) who dont want to be bothered by day to day fluctuations. sorry if i missed this in your previous posts, thanks

    ReplyDelete
  9. ABQNovember 7, 2011 at 1:32 PM

    1inbluemoon: Just returned from a long wknd...regarding /SI, the 4hr MACD has pulled over the 0 line, and traditionally portends to higher prices, but it is not a convincing slope/move. The recent high ($35.70) is exactly where we thought it would find resistance, and it is still contained within a bearish fork. A 2% move over /SI $35.89, and I am out of shorts. Some important fib dates from the 10th-15th are approaching...should be interesting. Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCNovember 7, 2011 at 2:36 PM

    Sami, I think Silver pushes up into the oval, and there will be an even match of buyers and sellers at that level. So trading range bound for Silver.

    Phantom,

    I have some specific comments coming regarding that question, and the timing.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousNovember 7, 2011 at 5:54 PM

    EMINI DAILY UPDATE


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/254/eminicycle.gif/


    Good Trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousNovember 7, 2011 at 6:11 PM

    EMINI 240 UPDATE

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/51/emini240min5ctall.gif/

    Good Trading! joed


    "Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. WD GANN

    The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states: `The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done, and there is no new thing under the sun.' -Eccl. 1:9."

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 6:37 AM

    ABQ thanks- jumping ahead my question is whats after, do you think silver is still a buy after this drop or are you with SC on the longer bear market for metals from here?

    Gabe, great quote!

    ReplyDelete
  14. SCNovember 8, 2011 at 7:13 AM

    Trading at the turquoise line, likely resistance there.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 7:28 AM

    EMINI 240 MAP

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/412/es240118.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    trakktrader80@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  16. SpudthorpeNovember 8, 2011 at 7:41 AM

    Gabe & SC, thanks for continuing to post your helpful updates.

    ReplyDelete
  17. ABQNovember 8, 2011 at 7:58 AM

    Yes, SC/Gabe...thanks for your continued input. There are some interesting timing/fib comparison within these TF fractals. I am interested to see what happens next here, if we don't set a new TF high: http://screencast.com/t/rm1jbSzI

    ReplyDelete
  18. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 8:27 AM

    EMINI 11/8 FOLLOW UP


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/521/es240118b.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 8:42 AM

    SILVER DAILY

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/545/silverdaily.gif/

    GOOD TRADING! joed

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 9:38 AM

    Gabe..
    Do you see any corrections coming up for silver soon?

    ReplyDelete
  21. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 9:57 AM

    SC, old is in nice uptrend, 1850-1900 could be here again soon, that could drag silver up to 40-41 once again. Crazy.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SCNovember 8, 2011 at 10:53 AM

    Yes, Gold moving up steadily. My Gold chart from early in October has continued to work well.

    Target for Gold is around $2,000.

    ReplyDelete
  23. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    SC.. if gold goes to 2000 wouldn't that make silver like around 38 bucks at least?

    ReplyDelete
  24. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 11:45 AM

    SC, is your 1200/oz gold target for 2011 no longer valid? im assuming..

    ReplyDelete
  25. SCNovember 8, 2011 at 11:51 AM

    It is a different topping pattern for Gold than anticipated earlier in the summer, and that means the same plan, but it takes longer. 2012 looks very bearish for Gold.

    Silver should make it to around $37 for a final top, but not in this rounded top. The final top comes later.

    ReplyDelete
  26. ABQNovember 8, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    http://screencast.com/t/y4oN30YAtf
    TLT continues to soften, reallocation in to equities. Still holding 1/2 position TBT.
    The reversal action today in Gold/Silver is encouraging...

    ReplyDelete
  27. SCNovember 8, 2011 at 11:59 AM

    Gold fell $350 off the $1900 level. Significant decline, but this wasn't the big move I was looking for, just a sizable correction. I'm ready and waiting for the setup.

    ReplyDelete
  28. BlakeNovember 8, 2011 at 12:07 PM

    SC- where do you see gold topping out when silver hits around $36 for this rounded top? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  29. SCNovember 8, 2011 at 12:14 PM

    Probably not too much higher for Gold. I have not looked at that in great detail but I'll say $1825-50 then decline to $1700.

    ReplyDelete
  30. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 12:40 PM

    SC, yes but in reality bull trend quickly resumed that 1530/oz did not last even half a day. It looks like we simply shook off new specs who got in late and now continuing higher... now the main concern for shorts - if that august mania spike was not the top, imagine what kind of spike/price level we will see before gold really tops out? 2K may seem like a great bargain.
    If thats the case i do not see silver staying this low much longer, it may challenge 50's possibly finally break out of the 30 year cup and handle and trade up to its historical low silver gold ratio of 16.

    So, considering all of this - doesn't it make more sense to take a bull approach on metals and buy dips instead of trying to figure out tops and often get burned in the process? (like 400$+ rally in the summer?)

    ReplyDelete
  31. ABQNovember 8, 2011 at 12:56 PM

    Out TBT...close enough to 1280. Thx SC.

    ReplyDelete
  32. SCNovember 8, 2011 at 1:05 PM

    Thanks, sure took it's sweet time to get there!

    ReplyDelete
  33. SamiNovember 8, 2011 at 1:12 PM

    SC.. are you still seeing the market top out around 1280?

    Please advice.

    ReplyDelete
  34. mickNovember 8, 2011 at 2:53 PM

    tell me we are topping I am short and getting nervous... thanks

    ReplyDelete
  35. AnonymousNovember 8, 2011 at 10:08 PM

    The only bullish sign I see is we closed above the 200dma on the SPX. Not a sure thing by any means but considered bullish

    ReplyDelete
  36. ABQNovember 9, 2011 at 5:32 AM

    One would think that /GC would be rocketing higher this morning, still think we are in a 4/5 of C, with the next big move to the downside....time will tell.
    Still valid: http://screencast.com/t/pnWn9DkLY3

    ReplyDelete
  37. SCNovember 9, 2011 at 5:52 AM

    There you go Mick, nervous is a good thing!

    ReplyDelete
  38. BlakeNovember 9, 2011 at 9:11 AM

    what do you see today SC?

    ReplyDelete

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