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Sunday, November 13, 2011

$SPX - Week Ahead

As anticipated there has been strength into Nov 14th.  Much of my work suggests a high around Nov 17th, and then decline into Nov 21st.  The theme continues to be the same - November whipsaws.

15min Chart















Since late October, NDX has been weakening relative to SPX. 

30min Chart
Posted by at

82 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 14, 2011 at 1:51 AM

    EMINI FLOOW UP

    Price came off confluence as expected.............Best, joed

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/855/es2401111b.gif/

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/269/es240only.gif/


    “TIME MAKES PRICE RIGHT”

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousNovember 14, 2011 at 2:09 AM

    EMINI SMALL TIME FRAME ENTRANCE

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/585/esboth.gif/

    Good Trading! joed



    “KNOW THE GEOMETRY AND YOU WILL KNOW YOUR TRADE”

    ReplyDelete
  3. beetlejuiceNovember 14, 2011 at 5:20 AM

    I don't care what time cycles or whatever the SPX is saying, the fact is that Eurozone bond yields are begining to signal disaster for the EU.

    Markets are about to collapse and the herd have been hoodwinked into the biggest "bull trap" in history!

    ReplyDelete
  4. beetlejuiceNovember 14, 2011 at 5:23 AM

    Oh one more thing, go and compare late 2007 to now and look what is about to befall the markets

    ReplyDelete
  5. SCNovember 14, 2011 at 7:51 AM

    Beetle, I've shown that 2007 comparison, and will continue to update on that similarity. One step at a time...

    On friday I mentioned a backtest of the turquoise line at 1250. We have done that, now can push higher into Nov 17th.

    ReplyDelete
  6. PKNovember 14, 2011 at 8:02 AM

    The entire world is aware of the 2007-2008 analogue. Back then we were told how the housing and credit problems were to be contained and thus not to worry. Today we are inundated with bad news daily form Europe and here at home and everyone is waiting for the "impending collapse". By my take, things are never that easy. Look for the market to continue surprising to the upside near/intermediate term

    ReplyDelete
  7. SCNovember 14, 2011 at 8:21 AM

    I agree, and want to be clear in that I do see the 2007 pattern continuing to play out, but only to a certain extent, and it is a different ending this time around.

    It won't be "predictable".

    ReplyDelete
  8. AMNovember 14, 2011 at 8:22 AM

    PK, so instead we'll just get a lot of volatility. Powerful upswings followed by as powerful downswings.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCNovember 14, 2011 at 8:47 AM

    AM, that is exactly right.

    We want to focus on the mkt in front of us. Right now that means whipsaws. Then, when the timing is right, switch to a bearish/bullish position.

    That is the key to know when to switch strategies, and that is why the timing cycles become very valuable.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AMNovember 14, 2011 at 8:56 AM

    I am guessing this high volatility may actually lead to money leaving the markets and causing full blown deflationary sell off sometime in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  11. m 8 zNovember 14, 2011 at 9:16 AM

    AM, I think you are right! All this volatility spells a crash later.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AMNovember 14, 2011 at 9:33 AM

    So the strategy for most should be capital preservation and waiting patiently for the big move. This is where money is made. Now, how do we filter out the noise and get the timing right?

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousNovember 14, 2011 at 9:44 AM

    ES FOLLOW UP.......the beat goes on!

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/840/esbothfollow.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    “WELCOME TO THE JOURNEY WITHIN”

    ReplyDelete
  14. SCNovember 14, 2011 at 10:37 AM

    AM - we filter out the noise with the timing cycles and patterns. I have charts coming to show what I mean.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousNovember 14, 2011 at 12:12 PM

    EMINI FOLLOW up


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/526/eminifollowbothz.gif/

    Good Trading, joed


    “KNOW WHEN NOT TO TAKE SMALL PROFIT ON A LARGE TRADE”

    ReplyDelete
  16. ABQNovember 15, 2011 at 8:39 AM

    RLX leading sector appears to be heading in to a 3 down & nice H&S topping pattern: http://screencast.com/t/XpKYrZ7cfF
    I have ES bottoming ~22nd.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousNovember 15, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    ES 11/15

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/259/es1115.gif/

    Good trading! joed



    “MOST THAT SAY INDICATORS ARE LAGGING,
    HAVE LAGGED IN THEIR “STUDY TIME”
    OF HOW TO USE THEM”

    ReplyDelete
  18. AnonymousNovember 15, 2011 at 2:08 PM

    SC, whats your take on metals here? gold and silver holding up well despite dollar advancing. Do you think this will continue on from here into 2012 and we have already seen our lows for 2011 at 26/1532? -Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCNovember 15, 2011 at 3:06 PM

    Silver is trading sideways in the oval as expected. Just more than half of the rounded top is complete now.

    There is some sideways yet to finish the top, and then it'll plunge again to test the $26-28 area.

    I'm very pleased with the way it is trading. It is nearly exact per the pattern.

    ReplyDelete
  20. SCNovember 15, 2011 at 3:07 PM

    I'll let you know when Silver is ready to go off the cliff.

    ReplyDelete
  21. beetlejuiceNovember 15, 2011 at 9:39 PM

    USD has been sending a clear signal. 7 of the last 11 trading days it has closed above its rising 50dma.

    Can't believe stock markets are dithering whilst the dollar, Euro yields and CDS's signal disaster

    ReplyDelete
  22. BlakeNovember 16, 2011 at 5:40 AM

    what is your take on oil SC? Thanks!

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  23. SCNovember 16, 2011 at 6:46 AM

    I can't see oil going much higher here. Looking top heavy.

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  24. AMNovember 16, 2011 at 6:50 AM

    beetle juice, something is bothering me about USDX i was expecting a strong break out of these levels but its seem to be struggling, is it a sign that it may head for a double bottom from here to 71 ? we did leave a nice hole at 75-76 level...

    ReplyDelete
  25. SCNovember 16, 2011 at 6:50 AM

    I would think oil trades much lower by mid-Dec.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SCNovember 16, 2011 at 7:35 AM

    SPX backtested the turquoise line again today. There should be upward pressure into tomorrow.

    Thankfully we should be out of this slop soon, and into some cleaner moves!

    ReplyDelete
  27. PKNovember 16, 2011 at 7:42 AM

    RUT stronger today, possibly an indication

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  28. AnonymousNovember 16, 2011 at 8:33 AM

    Thanks SC!

    ReplyDelete
  29. OtisNovember 16, 2011 at 8:47 AM

    SC, thank-you for your efforts. Wondering where you see the SPX heading? 1254 range or greater? 1278?

    ReplyDelete
  30. SCNovember 16, 2011 at 9:11 AM

    Quite a solid push is possible 1280's. Let's review targets later today and tomorrow morning. Because of all the chop lately, the timing turn dates have been helpful.

    ReplyDelete
  31. SantaNovember 16, 2011 at 9:25 AM

    Hi SC

    Would tomorrow be the day you would still expect the top with today being down quite a bit from yesterday? And then it will drop to 21st still?


    Thanks!
    David

    ReplyDelete
  32. SCNovember 16, 2011 at 9:43 AM

    Yes, that is what the cycle work suggests.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SantaNovember 16, 2011 at 12:41 PM

    with the last hour drop in spx, does that affect your cycle work for tomorrow SC?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  34. AnonymousNovember 16, 2011 at 12:41 PM

    EMINI 11/16

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/713/clipboard02e.gif/



    “A TRADERS RESULTS ARE DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO HIS CYCLES AT THE TIME. SOME CALL IT BEING IN THE ZONE”

    ReplyDelete
  35. SCNovember 16, 2011 at 12:57 PM

    Weak finish to the day. It doesn't change my work as far as timing. Let's see if it bounces tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  36. AnonymousNovember 16, 2011 at 1:08 PM

    ES DAILY CYCLE UPDATE



    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/205/escycle1116.gif/



    “DRAW WITH THE THOUGHTS OF LEANING ON IT WITH TIME………..IF IT FEELS WEAK DON’T LEAN HARD!

    ReplyDelete
  37. AnonymousNovember 16, 2011 at 1:17 PM

    EMINI 240 MIN


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/847/es240min1116.gif/



    “WHEN TIME IS RIGHT……. LINES ARE CLEARER”

    ReplyDelete
  38. AnonymousNovember 16, 2011 at 1:31 PM

    Gabe, thanks for the charts. What are you targets if it fails to the downside?

    ReplyDelete
  39. SantaNovember 16, 2011 at 1:58 PM

    Hi SC

    curious to know what kind of bounce you predicting for tomorrow. Consider today end of market drop, even with a bounce, may only get back to today's high. Is that what you expecting as well or some where higher?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  40. ZigZagNovember 16, 2011 at 7:43 PM

    One giant ramp is about to commence. Hope you've been buying the dips.
    This cycle doesn't end until January and possibly March..

    ReplyDelete
  41. SS76November 16, 2011 at 7:53 PM

    Which way zigzag? With the eurocrisis and bond yields going nuts, I don't think there is anything that will support this market going higher from now to January...I think the shoe drops first, and quite low.

    Do you have shorter time frames you work with? What about number targets?

    ReplyDelete
  42. SS76November 16, 2011 at 7:56 PM

    SC, for tomorrow to be a bullish day on the SPX (you said the same about the 14th by the way), it will have to be a 40-50 point rally.

    Spanish and French bond auctions going on tonight before the market opens.....I don't think you have a chance here.

    What am I missing? Could your cycle be off?

    You also mention that the next low should occur around the 21st, which can make sense if there are issues with the super committee, however I wonder from what level will that low happen, as I think we could already be on our way there and have missed a Short opportunity.

    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  43. ZigZagNovember 16, 2011 at 8:37 PM

    SS76, I posted these charts and others at the October low. We are following cycle patterns from 1998 and 1966. INDU has been positive from Nov 12th thru Jan 2nd for 10 straight years. I'm pretty sure they'll think something up to make it 11 :-)

    http://tinyurl.com/c9y9xje

    http://tinyurl.com/d8vok3t

    ReplyDelete
  44. SCNovember 16, 2011 at 10:21 PM

    The 14th was not an up day, but it was a top and the futures were up that morning. These timing cycles have been working quite well.

    I do think bounce tomorrow. Fri/Mon look weaker and mid next week looks very positive again. Bulls/bears have been disappointed in Nov. It is just whipsaws that we are seeing.

    ReplyDelete
  45. SantaNovember 17, 2011 at 6:43 AM

    Morning SC

    wondering if you still think the bounce is on today? this morning dropping so far still (continue drop from yesterday)


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  46. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 6:46 AM

    I think so, there is support at 1230.

    ReplyDelete
  47. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 7:08 AM

    Silver close to a short term bottom. $2 bounce coming.

    ReplyDelete
  48. SantaNovember 17, 2011 at 7:24 AM

    Hi SC

    was that the bounce you were seeing just now for spx? didnt really do a whole lot of rising...tomorrow looks scary if this is a bounce.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  49. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 7:33 AM

    Just starting to bounce imo.

    ReplyDelete
  50. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 7:45 AM

    I like this Silver trade better than SPX. High probability trade, better upside, and I see another Silver trade following it. Much cleaner action than SPX.

    I'll update the Silver chart today.

    ReplyDelete
  51. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 7:46 AM

    EMINI ....................

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/14/es1117intra.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  52. SS76November 17, 2011 at 7:50 AM

    So you figure Silver is a buy here?

    ReplyDelete
  53. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 7:50 AM

    INDU BASIC GEOMETRY

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/846/indu.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  54. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 7:51 AM

    I like Silver for a $2 bounce only.

    ReplyDelete
  55. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 7:57 AM

    SILVER DAILY


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/52/silverdaily.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  56. SS76November 17, 2011 at 8:04 AM

    $2 would be great, but the market seems set for a major drop. Good US economic data offset by Euro news.....bond yields rising, seems like a credit rating downgrade is coming.

    ReplyDelete
  57. SS76November 17, 2011 at 8:08 AM

    Other thing is, if you are seeing market weakness for the next 2 days, don't you think Silver will also have downside still?

    ReplyDelete
  58. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 8:12 AM

    That is a good point. Remember, for now I just see a sideways mkt with whipsaws. May see some minor weakness Fri/Mon.

    ReplyDelete
  59. SS76November 17, 2011 at 8:20 AM

    Thats just my opinion, but you are saying that your timing cycle on Silver points to an up today or Tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  60. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 8:23 AM

    The upside for Silver would be into next week. Over a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  61. SS76November 17, 2011 at 8:25 AM

    Have a price target?

    ReplyDelete
  62. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 8:30 AM

    Around $35 for the Silver future, would not trust it beyond that.

    ReplyDelete
  63. ABQNovember 17, 2011 at 8:34 AM

    GC holding TL http://screencast.com/t/hQlJXyynbO1
    http://screencast.com/t/XmKlsrugx8K
    taking some off here
    Buy ZSL Limit 11.16 -- -- 10:05:37 11/15/11

    ReplyDelete
  64. SS76November 17, 2011 at 8:40 AM

    Thanks SC. Would be great if you had an updated Silver chart given your topping formation.

    ReplyDelete
  65. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 8:43 AM

    Yes, I will show the updated chart for Silver later today. There are some nice moves coming imo.

    ReplyDelete
  66. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 8:45 AM

    SC, they can drive silver up and down easy in thin volume when US markets are closed. If general trend is down - then shouldn't we stick to it?

    ReplyDelete
  67. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 8:49 AM

    I'm just working off of my Silver pattern. Very pleased with the way it is working.

    ReplyDelete
  68. SantaNovember 17, 2011 at 8:55 AM

    Hi SC

    almost half trading day gone, we got a few small bounce, nothing huge. Curious if you see in your cycle for now are we heading downward till 21st?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  69. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 9:07 AM

    Still may bounce today, it's been sluggish thus far. That's right I would be looking at downside (may only be minor) into the 21st in any case.

    ReplyDelete
  70. SamiNovember 17, 2011 at 9:27 AM

    Gabe... Silver just dipped below 32.00 does that mean we go to 30?

    ReplyDelete
  71. SantaNovember 17, 2011 at 9:33 AM

    spx at 1225.31 now...looking bearish so far...is this a trap for bear before the bounce you see SC?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  72. ABQNovember 17, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    next stop for GC?
    http://screencast.com/t/9WFvkknKs
    liking mid 1100's for SPX

    ReplyDelete
  73. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 10:02 AM

    EMINI FOLLOW UP........BINGO!
    GOLD/SILVER DAILY!

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/190/es240daily1117.gif/


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/228/goldsilver.gif/

    Good TRADING! joed

    ReplyDelete
  74. SantaNovember 17, 2011 at 10:23 AM

    Hi SC

    we just had a landslide in snp, your thoughts?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  75. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 10:47 AM

    TBONDS DAILY

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/163/tbonds.gif/

    +++ JOHN W. ....PLEASE EMAIL ME AGAIN,
    I LOST YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS!

    Good Trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  76. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    SC, do you think this is it for silver's downside for now, for that bounce that you mentioned?

    ReplyDelete
  77. ABQNovember 17, 2011 at 11:18 AM

    Out ZSL for now..
    'bout time this rollsover: http://screencast.com/t/8rRRgTunOhcR

    ReplyDelete
  78. SS76November 17, 2011 at 11:28 AM

    Ok, all support levels are being taken out. What to do?

    ReplyDelete
  79. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 12:42 PM

    No bounce today so the conclusion is that the cycle high came in late yesterday. That means down pressure into 21st.

    For Silver I think the way to play is to put in a stop just below the low today.

    ReplyDelete
  80. AnonymousNovember 17, 2011 at 1:09 PM

    SC, i hope silver bounces, i closed some of my shorts. But looks like it may be an elevator down to new lows.

    ReplyDelete
  81. SantaNovember 17, 2011 at 1:18 PM

    Hi SC

    Are you sure it will still be 21st for the decline to? I mean if your cycle high got push 1 day in advance, how can the rest stay the same? Confused.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  82. SCNovember 17, 2011 at 2:04 PM

    I do think Silver likely to rebound, hit an important support today. Chart coming.

    I'm going to look closer at SPX - have been eyeing the 1187 area for a while. It seems the cycle came in early, but it wasn't much early, and I don't see that impacting future dates. Nov 21st still makes sense.

    ReplyDelete

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