Pages

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

$VIX - Volatile April Update

The VIX spiked and has nearly reached the target outlined previously.  After settling down first, it'll surge higher again next week.

Daily Chart
Posted by at

62 comments:

  1. RBApril 11, 2012 at 6:34 AM

    Hello SC,

    You did say (I guess last week) you work on Gold and Silver charts.
    When can we see PM charts and your latest analysis about Gold and Silver?

    Thank you for your efforts and kindness.
    Appreciated,
    RB

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousApril 11, 2012 at 7:01 AM

    SC, are you still expecting a lower low for silver this week ?
    Many thanks !!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 11, 2012 at 7:08 AM

      Silver didn't quite make it lower yesterday, and still hovering here. It'll give it a little more time.

      Delete
  3. SCApril 11, 2012 at 9:18 AM

    SPX stopped at my orange line 1375 this morning, now at the white line of support 1368.

    I think it'll move up now to 1378 or so.

    ReplyDelete
  4. HammermanApril 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

    Hi SC,
    Notice how USD, Gold, and Silver moving together today. What's up with that ?

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousApril 11, 2012 at 9:48 AM

    On Friday silver will drop under $31. This drop will be explained by the speech of Bernanke.

    ReplyDelete
  6. SCApril 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

    It does seem that the USD could manage a small pop next few days.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SantaApril 11, 2012 at 10:30 AM

    Hi SC

    Are we still on target with weak wednesday, thursday and postive on friday?

    curious to know.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 11, 2012 at 10:42 AM

      SPX can bounce a little more first, then weaken again. It should not get past 1380, then dip back into the 1360's imo.

      Delete
  8. HammermanApril 11, 2012 at 10:43 AM

    Just a historical mention on the period of June 24 - Sept 04 2011,

    Dow 12043 (june 24) to 12719 (july 7) to 11139 (Sept 4) 7.5% drop / 12.4% from peak.

    USD 74.1 to 77.3 4.3% increase
    Silver 33.4 to 43.4 30% increase
    Gold 1475 to 1918 30% increase
    The 3 amigos all moved up together.

    ReplyDelete
  9. HammermanApril 11, 2012 at 11:26 AM

    Correction:
    I used a weekly chart for USD values above. Actual values on daily chart for those specific USD dates, shows only a 75.2 to 75.9 rise. There were specific periods that moved together. The point was to see what happens while the dow crashes.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SS76April 12, 2012 at 7:27 AM

    SPX feels really weak right now...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 7:40 AM

      Yes, agree. At the 1380 level mentioned yesterday and I think another test of near the 1357 low comes over next few days.

      Delete
  11. SS76April 12, 2012 at 7:40 AM

    1380 is here SC.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCApril 12, 2012 at 7:45 AM

    Out of XIV, and into UVXY at $18.60.

    ReplyDelete
  13. SS76April 12, 2012 at 7:57 AM

    How long will you hold that SC? I bought HVU at $5.09.

    ReplyDelete
  14. AMApril 12, 2012 at 8:14 AM

    Zig Zag, if this bottom holds and dollar breaks down your fractal may be the ticket AGAIN!

    ReplyDelete
  15. SantaApril 12, 2012 at 8:37 AM

    Guys,

    ZigZag has a dip on the map around April 12, small dip, I think that will go well with SC entry today.

    Take a look.

    Cheer

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomApril 12, 2012 at 8:48 AM

      That Dip was for S & P not HVU or UVXY....

      correct me if wrong.

      Delete
    2. SCApril 12, 2012 at 8:57 AM

      Dip for S&P next.

      Delete
  16. SS76April 12, 2012 at 8:52 AM

    I think the Chinese GDP data will disappoint and perhaps be the catalyst for a Friday/Monday drop...

    ReplyDelete
  17. StockboomApril 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

    Hi SC, Zigzag or anyone with knowledge can explain me below?

    What is the difference between XIV and UVXY/HVU?

    Thank you for taking time

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 9:01 AM

      XIV is the VIX futures 1x bear. UVXY is the VIX futures 2x bull.

      So basically XIV seeks to profit from a decrease in volatility (futures not the cash VIX directly).

      Delete
  18. SS76April 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

    Bomb at WTC?
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2-world-financial-center-area-evacuated-due-suspicious-package?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCApril 12, 2012 at 9:12 AM

    I think the market will struggle for the next 2-3 days. A grind down - not too fast.

    ReplyDelete
  20. SantaApril 12, 2012 at 9:15 AM

    Hi SC

    curious to know what ever happen to friday being positive? this aint happening anymore?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 9:23 AM

      Overall the cycle analysis is weak today, only mildly positive tomorrow and quite negative over the weekend and Monday.

      So my take is that a small bounce could occur sometime tomorrow on the way down. Overall it is a negative trend until Tues.

      Delete
    2. SantaApril 12, 2012 at 9:41 AM

      Hi SC

      curious, we are getting newer high as we discuss further today. This doesnt change your outlook still?

      I know the day is still early, still almost half day left, but so far it seems pretty strong day, no?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCApril 12, 2012 at 9:49 AM

      Bounced as expected yesterday, and now should retest the Tues low in coming days. Still the same plan.

      NDX has been making lower highs for the last 2 hours also.

      We're heading lower again imo.

      Delete
  21. HammermanApril 12, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    Hi SC,
    In regards to silver/gold with dollar headed down :

    Are we there yet ?

    Or is this a head fake ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 9:54 AM

      I think Silver could head higher up to $33.50, but I still think it is a headfake.

      This is proving to be a slow process.

      Delete
    2. RBApril 12, 2012 at 9:57 AM

      Hello SC,

      What should we expect for gold/silver rally?
      Can we buy gold with dry powder money or wait then buy when the correction comes?

      Do you expect any correction for PMs or bottom locked in?

      Thank you,
      RB

      Delete
    3. SCApril 12, 2012 at 10:03 AM

      The bottom still is not in for Gold or Silver imo. So it is a waiting game for now.

      The charts are coming with time and price targets.

      Delete
  22. SCApril 12, 2012 at 10:57 AM

    Markets rolling over, oil dropping.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaApril 12, 2012 at 11:03 AM

      Hi SC

      Could this be a fake roll over, before we go higher today?

      Do you see a chance in that


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCApril 12, 2012 at 11:09 AM

      Things are pretty conclusive that we are heading lower imo.

      Delete
    3. SS76April 12, 2012 at 11:55 AM

      Ya think? S&P heading higher???

      Delete
  23. SantaApril 12, 2012 at 11:47 AM

    Hi SC

    After this drop do you expect a big sharp bounce afterward within April?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  24. SCApril 12, 2012 at 12:15 PM

    Maxed out my UVXY position at $17.80.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 12:16 PM

      I have an in depth plan for the month, and this time I am going to do it right!

      Delete
    2. SS76April 12, 2012 at 12:17 PM

      Stop loss?

      Delete
    3. SCApril 12, 2012 at 12:20 PM

      I am satified with the position. Could place one at $17.

      Delete
    4. SCApril 12, 2012 at 12:21 PM

      Target is still around $21.

      Delete
  25. SCApril 12, 2012 at 12:24 PM

    Lower highs for NDX, also oil.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SS76April 12, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    What a terrible HVU trade...gonna hold it but man, just a bad bad trade. Should have kept HVI.

    ReplyDelete
  27. SS76April 12, 2012 at 12:51 PM

    Get stopped out?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 12:53 PM

      No, never had a hard stop in. I'm just going to hold it because I'm expecting another VIX spike soon anyways.

      Delete
  28. StockboomApril 12, 2012 at 12:53 PM

    Lot of dumping is going right now in UVXY....so may be tomorrow will not see day light either...

    ReplyDelete
  29. SantaApril 12, 2012 at 1:03 PM

    hi SC

    what would a target for HVU be? relative to UVXY


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  30. SCApril 12, 2012 at 1:49 PM

    Important update coming. BIG trade setup...

    ReplyDelete
  31. stevesteve121April 12, 2012 at 2:26 PM

    yay!

    ReplyDelete
  32. mickApril 12, 2012 at 3:04 PM

    Do I need to be buying UVXY after hours at 16.30 ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 3:57 PM

      No. It should pop in the morning a little ($17's) so may be worthwhile, however, not part of the setup for the "BIG" trade.

      Delete
  33. stevesteve121April 12, 2012 at 4:13 PM

    update coming before tomorrow morning? ty

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2012 at 4:17 PM

      Update will be later tonight, there will be plenty of time tomorrow to position as well.

      This is going to be great!

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)