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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

$VIX - Ready for Final Spike

VIX has consolidated for several weeks and has completed a bull flag pattern.  A final spike is imminent to take the VIX up into the target zone.  May 1st is a target date.

It is important to remember that spikes in VIX are characteristic of SPX bottoms.

Daily Chart
















UVXY can spike over 3-4 days up into the target zone approximately $18.75.  It should plunge severely after the spike occurs.

30min Chart
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79 comments:

  1. MM111April 26, 2012 at 7:08 AM

    I guess no pullback. Market looking like it wants to go move higher still.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCApril 26, 2012 at 7:10 AM

    1395.50 SPX is where my red fork targets rests. I think it sells off from that level.

    ReplyDelete
  3. MM111April 26, 2012 at 7:23 AM

    It touched 1397 AH. What down side target do we have from here? 1360 or a bit lower still?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 26, 2012 at 7:28 AM

      Yes, we could test that level again on the downside.

      Delete
  4. SCApril 26, 2012 at 7:58 AM

    Going back to early March the VIX chart is a great, clean example of a cup and handle also.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SS76April 26, 2012 at 8:43 AM

    Vix charts are tricky when you consider etfs are trading futures.....remember that. I think $3.25 is the area HVU will hit to be a buy..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 26, 2012 at 8:51 AM

      Yes that is important, and I'm well aware of that. That is why cash VIX should make a higher high, but UVXY only a lower high from April 10th.

      Delete
    2. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 9:25 AM

      SC, so you think HVU is going to 3.25? so spike will not occure?

      Also are still holding UVXY? you said you bought in heavy yesterday...

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. SCApril 26, 2012 at 9:29 AM

      No, I don't see it reaching down there at all. The VIX is set to spike sharply.

      I bought heavy yesterday, and am going to max out my position shortly. When this solid an opportunity presents I take full advantage.

      Delete
    4. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 9:35 AM

      can you please advice at what price you targeting to maximize your position on UVXY?

      Thank you

      Delete
    5. SCApril 26, 2012 at 9:38 AM

      Anything at this level looks attractive. I've been waiting to see if SPX can reach 1395.50.

      Delete
    6. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 9:40 AM

      But if you cheak VIX daily chart, it could hit in 16's that will be nasty blow another 10% on VIX and 20% on UVXY and HVU...

      Am I reading it correct? based on BB range and looking at bottom BB.

      Thanks

      Delete
    7. SCApril 26, 2012 at 9:43 AM

      I don't see any chance of that happening.

      Delete
  6. SS76April 26, 2012 at 9:47 AM

    I think you are right in the risk of UVXY and HVU right now, and I do think it has another down leg left.....however when that happens is anyones guess. I would rather hold watching the S & P levels rather than continually trying HVU and bleeding more and more catching a falling knife.....that said, it does look ready for a short term spike as SC stated, and I think the best buying opp will come at the end of the day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 9:55 AM

      Thanks SS!

      Why you think good opportunity will come at the end of the day?

      Thanks

      Delete
  7. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 9:53 AM

    SC,

    S & P moving towards 1395 right now, if it hits, are you planning to fill your balance position?

    I just want to time my purchase right..

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  8. SCApril 26, 2012 at 10:03 AM

    There is a pattern I am currently reviewing. It is looking quite possible that my target for UVXY is way too low.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 10:05 AM

      If VIX go up from here then VIX can reach around 29 from current level of 18...so yes your target is way too low if that happens....

      Here is the technicals...

      http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/vix:-a-must-check-out-chart-121161

      Delete
  9. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 10:20 AM

    Looks like HVU/UVXY going to be in bad shape

    VIX is going down here....

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCApril 26, 2012 at 10:20 AM

    There we go 1395.50 SPX. So I maxed my position at $13.15.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCApril 26, 2012 at 10:21 AM

    I think SPX is heading for 1326 next.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCApril 26, 2012 at 10:26 AM

    I am putting my UVXY for sale at $27.60.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sun_shineApril 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM

      UVXY at over $27 is quite a target from these levels ($13.15)! That means HVU over $7. To get to those numbers, this market would have to really fall hard, a prospect I also don't relish much.

      Delete
  13. mike cApril 26, 2012 at 10:35 AM

    SC when is all this going to happen to the downside? Thanks MC

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousApril 26, 2012 at 10:37 AM

    Yesterday i mentioned set stop lost on HVU
    my new target HVU will be @ 3.00 or below
    play safe ....

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousApril 26, 2012 at 10:39 AM

    I expect a pull back tomorrow my hrs chart RSI or above 90%

    ReplyDelete
  16. MikeApril 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM

    uvxy seems to be re-testing all time lows.

    ReplyDelete
  17. MM111April 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM

    1398. Still going strong.

    ReplyDelete
  18. SS76April 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM

    Destiny, you could be right. I'm thinking $3.30 - $3.25 is the bottom before it goes up though....could be at the close today, or the open tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousApril 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM

    A pull back might come either friday or next monday dont get trap in again because SPX daily chart still have alot of room to go up reverse back with Vix daily heading futher down properly i m wrong but my target Hvu 3.50 while it was above 5

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousApril 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM

    i try to pick the lowest price so can save myself from those contango .

    ReplyDelete
  21. AnonymousApril 26, 2012 at 10:58 AM

    Vix ( Foxe-pro ) will chop down 2 more current @ 18 will be around 16 so will be fine for us to buy .

    ReplyDelete
  22. MM111April 26, 2012 at 10:59 AM

    This thing is not going down...

    ReplyDelete
  23. MM111April 26, 2012 at 11:01 AM

    Well this move down to 1358 and now to 1400. Not one of your best calls SC :(

    ReplyDelete
  24. SamiApril 26, 2012 at 11:04 AM

    I think its safe to say ZIGZAg's chart is in play...
    lows are in already a few days ago.

    ReplyDelete
  25. MM111April 26, 2012 at 11:10 AM

    well, i'm out. no point fighting this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SS76April 26, 2012 at 11:30 AM

      I think you are right and while the market may pull back tomorrow, I think its too risky holding these 2x Vix etfs overnight....except maybe HND.

      Delete
  26. SCApril 26, 2012 at 11:10 AM

    I'm staying put with my position. I think the market is in big trouble here. Everyone turned bullish way too fast. Always a warning.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TheendsendApril 26, 2012 at 11:28 AM

      AAII came out with their numbers this morning. 27% bulls/ 37% bears.

      Delete
    2. SCApril 26, 2012 at 11:31 AM

      I just mean on a short term basis.

      Delete
  27. AnonymousApril 26, 2012 at 11:12 AM

    A pull back will be come if you see Dow Jone @ level 13225 - 13250

    ReplyDelete
  28. BlakeApril 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

    Market is on fire!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  29. choppyApril 26, 2012 at 11:39 AM

    SC, i am curious, why don't you put stop lose? just in case you are on the wrong side.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 26, 2012 at 11:47 AM

      I'm looking for a big spike in the VIX. So I don't worry about the little things. Once the analysis is done then I give my trades room and let them work. Having said that I will draw the line when it is appropriate.

      Delete
    2. choppyApril 26, 2012 at 11:55 AM

      snp has higher high, but vix no lower lowe, maybe your right.

      Delete
    3. SS76April 26, 2012 at 12:17 PM

      Choppy, I think you are wrong here. The VIX on this down leg has not put in a lower low, but the S&P hasn't put in a higher high either.....if you are looking at simply the recent action, then the $3.45 print on HVU and the 1401 print on the S&P are a lower low and higher high respectively.

      Delete
  30. MM111April 26, 2012 at 11:45 AM

    Not even pull back at this level.

    ReplyDelete
  31. MM111April 26, 2012 at 11:47 AM

    Might get a small pull-back and then it will go higher.

    ReplyDelete
  32. SCApril 26, 2012 at 11:58 AM

    My UVXY is all for sale at $27.60. Now I'm sitting back waiting for the fill :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 12:03 PM

      when you think your target will be reached? next week?

      Thanks

      Delete
    2. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:05 PM

      Early May

      Delete
    3. choppyApril 26, 2012 at 12:07 PM

      this is more than double current price.

      Delete
    4. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:08 PM

      Yes, it is and that is why I'm going to give this trade some room to work.

      Delete
    5. SS76April 26, 2012 at 12:20 PM

      I thnk you are going to see the VIX spike around the May 6th French elections, but I don't think you'll see anywhere close to your targets...could be wrong though.

      Delete
  33. mickApril 26, 2012 at 12:00 PM

    27.60 would be crash of 100+ s&p points

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:03 PM

      I think we're looking at a freefall to 1326.

      Delete
    2. SS76April 26, 2012 at 12:21 PM

      When do you see 1326....after we hit 1450?

      Delete
    3. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:27 PM

      No I think we're heading there right now.

      Delete
  34. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:07 PM

    Gold and Silver could go wildly up here too.

    ReplyDelete
  35. TheendsendApril 26, 2012 at 12:17 PM

    From my technical prospective, above spx 1390 and I gotta be bullish. I just don't see what you are seeing SC. If we break back below 1390, I may see but for now it is a shot in the dark that you are correct. We shall C.

    ReplyDelete
  36. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:24 PM

    I think my original chart at the end of March for VIX was correct.

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/03/vix-volatile-april-ahead.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:26 PM

      We hit the first target on the VIX, and the second target is around 29 for VIX. That would put UVXY around $28 I figure.

      Delete
    2. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:34 PM

      Most often the first thought is the correct one.

      Delete
  37. StockboomApril 26, 2012 at 12:25 PM

    Look at the DOW...like mad elephant..going like no tomorrow...tomorrow should be interesting...

    ReplyDelete
  38. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:30 PM

    Bottom line if I am right, the SPX should not go much higher here. Certainly not above 1420. If it starts to slide soon, then I believe I am correct, and the bottom should be around 1326 SPX with a serious waterfall move.

    Let's see...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 26, 2012 at 12:40 PM

      It could take a week or so though in total. Not likely to be overnight. So if SPX stalls out here and starts to slide for a few days, then my scenario looks right.

      Delete
    2. dude budApril 26, 2012 at 1:01 PM

      Could be wrong but it looks like the spx is still in a bear flag, the last move down may have been a false signal.

      Delete
  39. MM111April 26, 2012 at 1:09 PM

    Face it. Correction is over.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sun_shineApril 26, 2012 at 1:15 PM

      Somehow, I doubt that is the case, however next week will tell the real story.

      Delete
    2. dude budApril 26, 2012 at 1:19 PM

      Haha that's what I like to hear.

      Delete
  40. SS76April 26, 2012 at 1:26 PM

    For some reason I get the feeling that the SPX will rise to 1425 before having the bottom fall out.....with May 6th area being the time when it happens.

    We'll see. I'm safer in HND at the moment, I think, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  41. SCApril 26, 2012 at 1:36 PM

    The VIX didn't spike on that last SPX bottom at 1360. Too much complacency for a real bottom imo.

    Also, why the sudden delays in the Facebook deal? Is there a problem with the market in May? It seems suspicious...

    ReplyDelete
  42. SamiApril 26, 2012 at 1:59 PM

    FAT FINGER ALERT>> FUTURES TOOK A BIG tank in the after hours.. what happened?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sun_shineApril 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

      S&P cut Spain's rating. DOn't worry everything will be back to normal tomorrow.

      Delete
    2. dude budApril 26, 2012 at 3:50 PM

      Who here believes in free markets? I don't, they will make the market look like its going to crash shortly and when u least expect it make a move up again possibly to new highs until the real one comes in. They've done it before and will do it again to screw the common person.

      Delete
    3. dude budApril 26, 2012 at 3:57 PM

      On that note I stand by my call bear flag is still in play for the spx to around the 1300 area.

      Delete
    4. MikeApril 27, 2012 at 5:25 AM

      agreed sun_shine. I was happy with uvxy aftermarket yesterday.. But of course it couldn't last. 180 this morning.

      Delete
  43. Jay StraussApril 26, 2012 at 4:31 PM

    mkt should churn for a couple days between 1375 & 1400.
    Bad GDP tomorrow could take it down to 1375 possibly at open.

    cycle top due Apr30-& May1st
    next big pivot low after May 1st should hit on May7th

    thats all for now
    best wishes
    Jaywiz

    ReplyDelete

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