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Sunday, April 22, 2012

$SPX - Pop and Drop

The turquoise fork resistance was tested hard last week.  SPX should have the strength to push higher now and reach into the target zone above.

A number of cycle methods indicate weakness is coming though.  At least a double bottom near the low of April 10th is favoured later in the week.  Even a little lower roughly around 1350 looks possible.

15min Chart
Posted by at

43 comments:

  1. RBApril 22, 2012 at 10:48 PM

    Hi SC,

    Can we still expect Silver (spot) will go up to 34$ level or this expectation is dead due to market action after friday?

    When can we see your gold and updated silver chart?
    Thank you.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 23, 2012 at 6:04 AM

      Silver bounced a little last week, but not much. I think we're finally going to see a bottom for Gold/Silver soon. Silver $29.50 to $30.

      Delete
    2. RBApril 23, 2012 at 6:13 AM

      SC Thanks for the comment,

      I don't have to muuch expertise on this but I guess, if PoS break down 31$, we can see 28$ level.

      What should we expect for Gold, Do you have any price/time projection for Gold?

      Thanks,
      RB

      Delete
    3. SCApril 23, 2012 at 6:27 AM

      Gold is still above it's early April low. A slightly lower low around $1600 is likely to be the bottom from my point of view.

      Delete
  2. joedApril 23, 2012 at 2:51 AM

    DOW

    http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8858/dow420.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  3. beetlejuiceApril 23, 2012 at 5:34 AM

    Doesn't look like you're gonna get your pop SC.

    Futures are getting slammed, alot of nervous nellies after the Rd 1 of the French election.
    Looks like Hollande is going to be the next President and he is outspokenly anti-Eurozone establishment.
    Spain back in recession, Greek elections on the horizon and the media now quite obviously pimping for the shorts.

    ReplyDelete
  4. mickApril 23, 2012 at 6:01 AM

    the pop was last week you missed it... there is no way you should be LONG right now, you called this plunge yet you own xiv right now?

    ReplyDelete
  5. SCApril 23, 2012 at 6:08 AM

    No pop obviously. I still like the double bottom part. A double bottom isn't much lower.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. mceApril 23, 2012 at 6:13 AM

      So how can UVXY reach the level over 20 you predicted several post before, when you think the SPX will head higher after the double bottom?
      Just a question, not attacking you.
      Thanks

      Delete
    2. SCApril 23, 2012 at 6:23 AM

      It can't. April 10th $21.50 looks like the high for the month. The problem for UVXY now is that all of this April chop dissipated the energy. The bearish sentiments have increased over this time. Now the market is setting to rally again.

      Delete
  6. SCApril 23, 2012 at 6:18 AM

    The VIX futures aren't doing much comparatively with this drop in S&P futures. XIV is at about the price I bought it.

    A double bottom would likely only take UVXY up to low-mid $18. This week I think it is heading for high $13 - low $14.

    ReplyDelete
  7. MuzzApril 23, 2012 at 6:27 AM

    Hi SC if we do see a double bottom which is very close to where we are now in the futures what do you see after that point? Would you be looking at another push up to 1400 area before a bigger drop?

    Basically what sort of road map do you see coming up?

    Thanks SC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 23, 2012 at 6:30 AM

      The plan is Double bottom (slight lower low is possible) with April 10th, and then a surge into mid May. Around 1460 SPX is where I am targeting.

      Delete
    2. SantaApril 23, 2012 at 6:31 AM

      Hi SC

      you still holding your XIV?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. SCApril 23, 2012 at 6:37 AM

      Yes, it probably has 30 cents of downside or something. I may just hold it because I am expecting it to rise to mid-high $11 later this week.

      Delete
  8. SamiApril 23, 2012 at 7:25 AM

    I don't get how VIX is up 15% and HVU.to is only up 12.9..
    lol


    come on

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousApril 23, 2012 at 8:30 AM

      Hi Sami

      Thanks for your common on Google + at least someone make me laugh on the red day ( market down ) you 're a funny friend . Thanksssssssssss ....

      LOL

      Delete
    2. AnonymousApril 23, 2012 at 1:36 PM

      must be the exchange rate....LOL

      Delete
  9. SCApril 23, 2012 at 8:22 AM

    SPX hit the double bottom minimum target. There is support at that level so a small bounce can occur here. It still seems that it may dip a little lower tomorrow though. Closer to 1350 may be about right.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaApril 23, 2012 at 9:02 AM

      Hi SC

      since you think we may dip to 1350, would you consider selling your XIV in this bounce and buy it back lower?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCApril 23, 2012 at 9:06 AM

      Yes, that would likely work, and could be a little better positioned.

      Delete
  10. SCApril 23, 2012 at 8:25 AM

    Aapl may have already bottomed this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCApril 23, 2012 at 9:17 AM

    Sold my XIV at $10.79 for a small gain. Would have been better last week. I plan to pick it up again tomorrow/Wed around $10.10-20.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaApril 23, 2012 at 9:40 AM

      Hi SC

      congrats on gain

      you plan to stay cash then with your position or get into some UVXY for more added bullet to sell tomorrow to buy more XIV?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCApril 23, 2012 at 9:41 AM

      I'm debating that. It should work but the upside is only to low-mid $18's imo.

      Delete
  12. SS76April 23, 2012 at 9:57 AM

    I think I'll hold HVU and sell towards the end of the trading session...

    ReplyDelete
  13. monadApril 23, 2012 at 10:28 AM

    SC
    whıle you say that silver will be $34,$32,it goes under $31 evenmore $30.Interesting!I wonder about where would it stop at?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 23, 2012 at 10:30 AM

      The big support is at $29.50-30 for Silver futures imo.

      Delete
  14. SCApril 23, 2012 at 11:37 AM

    Bought UVXY at $16.52.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 23, 2012 at 11:38 AM

      Just thinking it can pop into the $18's tomorrow/Wed.

      Delete
  15. SS76April 23, 2012 at 11:45 AM

    Stopped out of HVU at $4.50. Bought HND at $44.98 as I see the surge in NG as simply a reaction to the little cold weather system plowing through the east.

    ReplyDelete
  16. joedApril 23, 2012 at 12:00 PM

    SILVER 240

    http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7413/silver240.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomApril 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

      Joed,

      Thanks for the chart, do you see silver pop in short term? what would be your target for POP?

      I see silver surging from here as daily and 4 hr. chart are exausted

      Delete
    2. joedApril 23, 2012 at 12:40 PM

      Stock

      I trade time first so targets are an after thought once time runs into them..........Iam looking for much morethan a POP.....but I take profit as I go an reenter........swing or not! joed

      Delete
  17. SS76April 23, 2012 at 12:18 PM

    SC, do you not think that the surge to 1460 may happen before May 6th? That is the election runoff date when Hollande is likely to assume power, and you bet the markets won't like that one bit.

    Yesterdays election results sure put the markets on edge, and likely heavily contributed to todays action.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM

      There should still be some chop right into the end of April first. I do think that the market should surge strongly first week of May. Mid-May looks best to me for a top. We can review in early May.

      Delete
  18. SantaApril 23, 2012 at 12:48 PM

    Hi SC

    you have a stop for your UVXY?

    snp may have a chance to go lower over night (can do jack overnight) and then just bounce in pre-market and market hour.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 23, 2012 at 12:56 PM

      Say around $16.20. The next day or two should be weak imo. Rally for SPX late in the week seems likely imo.

      Delete
  19. SCApril 23, 2012 at 12:59 PM

    Tomorrow/Wed seems most probable for SPX to bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  20. SS76April 23, 2012 at 1:12 PM

    I think tomorrow. HVI will be a buy. Didn't want to risk it though as this market seems to be a risk on risk off which is tough to predict, but I think todays sell off was obvious at the end of last week with everything happening this last weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  21. SantaApril 23, 2012 at 1:19 PM

    Hi SC

    I got a question regarding today sudden change of direction, for knowledge purpose, hope you dont mind me asking. Why did the pop not happen as predicted and as well, due to the pop didn’t happen, a switch to UVXY was made to catch further weakness (assuming it happen). Can you show us chart or let us know what made you change your view so quick and why?

    Understand you mention double bottom, but that statement didn’t show up till we had this drop today, before that, think you were expecting quick bounce on Monday, which didn’t happen. (Guessing the bounce happen on last Friday)

    Also about this double bottom, what evident do you see that this is a double bottom and not that we going to 1340 or lower?

    And chart for that big bounce to 1460 into May?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 23, 2012 at 1:30 PM

      Sure let me show some charts and reasoning later today.

      Delete
  22. SantaApril 23, 2012 at 4:12 PM

    Hi SC

    I am thinking now do you think the market would run the snp up to the earning announcement of AAPL tomorrow?

    certainly trap a lot of bears today if they do it.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete

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