The cycle analysis is negative at the end of this week, but with the holiday this may be pushed into early next week instead. Detailed April cycles will be coming shortly.
15min Chart
Monday, April 2, 2012
$SPX - Sideways Shuffle
SPX has traded flat for several weeks. The trend could continue this week since Friday is a holiday and trading may be quiet. NDX has been a little weaker for the last several days though.
The cycle analysis is negative at the end of this week, but with the holiday this may be pushed into early next week instead. Detailed April cycles will be coming shortly.
15min Chart
The cycle analysis is negative at the end of this week, but with the holiday this may be pushed into early next week instead. Detailed April cycles will be coming shortly.
15min Chart
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I agree with this. I think Fridays jobs report will be negative, and the reaction will happen Monday given Friday is a holiday.
ReplyDeleteHVU is a buy on Thursday.
Does any one know ..... Does the job report come out with the market closed? Are the futures trading on Friday??
ReplyDeleteYes. Job report comes out Friday at 8:30 a.m.
ReplyDeleteFutures are open, but close at 9:15 A.M. EST.
Good trading.
SPX bounced exactly at the midfork shown above 1404.50 this morning.
ReplyDeleteIt should dip again soon imo. 1398 is a downside level to watch at the orange fork shown in previous analysis.
uvxy almost all the way back down ... 12.60 was low
ReplyDeleteSC, after today, you see the SPX positive the rest of the week....think we then get new HVU lows possibly in the low $3 range?
ReplyDeleteSPX can dip again soon imo. I see it being a quiet week small dips and pops - rangebound.
DeleteThat implies low volatility so probably late this week UVXY etc can undercut the low. They should be about ready to bounce soon though.
Sideways and a final dip around the 10th?
ReplyDeleteYes, exactly. Rangebound this week likely, then dip again.
DOW and S & P is rising crazy...what happened? any news out?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Combo of US and Chinese manufacturing....good news though I think seasonally influenced.....I do think the Friday jobs report will dissappoint, and Monday will be a particularly bad day for the markets, and that is how I am going to hedge my bets. HVU on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteSC, you expected UVXY to reach $18.50 today. It doesn't look like that will be reached. Are you still expecting to make a profit on your most recent trade? Do you still expect to see $7.50 and then $10.90 HVU?
ReplyDeleteSC you bought uvxy at 20... no stops on your trades?
DeleteApril should be quite volatile. Plenty of opportunity to trade in and out of these.
DeleteHow are you adjusting your plan as the volatility hasn't been playing out the way you've expected? Are you just holding UVXY until it reaches your $28 and $41 targets?
DeleteYou said you didn't see any point to repositioning, so it looks like you're in the negative with your recent UVXY trade. I don't see how you expect to be profitable when you don't really address when your expectations fall short.
There are negative cycles coming up in April. These are the spots when volatility pops. So the plan simply is to unload in these spots and reload when things are quiet again.
DeleteI'm not sure if you understand me, or maybe I don't understand you. You keep calling for pops in volatility at a future date; however, when said pop doesn't happen you simply extend the date further into the future and seem to ignore the fact that your original prediction did not occur.
DeleteYou've made some correct predictions that are related to the volatility, and when they're correct you say that it equates to a high degree of confidence. But, when your direct predictions on how the volatility should be behave don't occur, you seem to just ignore them and give another future prediction.
Obviously, you know more about this than I do. But, just from following this blog there a few things just don't add up for me.
I have a plan going forward to simplify this approach. I'll show what I mean in the next few days.
Deletewhen do you expect 1398 SC? Short term, where do you see the SPX going? I'm thinking 1443 this week.
ReplyDeleteThis is the level to watch for next week. The orange line slopes down so next week 1395 or so.
DeleteIs 80 points profit on SPX flat market??
ReplyDeleteAM, what are your SPX guesses short term...
Deleteby the looks of it it may be another year where "sell in may and go away" might be the best trading advice.
DeleteRoughly $33.50 to $33.25. Gold $1660-1690.
ReplyDeleteVIX futures actually holding up well today....
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteDo you see reversal in UVXY and HVU as positive for these two in coming days? do you think UVXY have made bottom now?
Thanks
Yes, looks good for tomorrow. This should be a choppy week but not major moves either.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteI still think that the POS will hit the 30$ before going up. The charts that you made not so long ago still shows a lot of downside possible.
Yes, I agree. I'll do an update this week on Silver and Gold. Thanks.
DeleteI revised my equation and methodology for silver lease rate curve drop area (time x negativity) versus silver price drop for RB last week and the correlation for May, Sept, Dec of 2011 is straight line. The equation predicts current POS 30.2 closing cycle low based on Netdania line chart data. Actual low for the day could be $1-3 less than 30.2 on a daily spike down. Curious to see how this pans out. I wish I had data for before last May.
DeleteFrom a cycle low standpoint, Mar 21st low was too early, I agree. However, the April 10th date is OK for silver but verging on lateness for gold IMO.
It all hinges on USD I think as it could rocket anytime. USD cycle low IMO is last week of April so it needs to get moving. If USD breaks down badly to keep stocks up for another month, then perhaps Mar 21st could be the bottom. ??
Thanks Hammerman,
DeleteI greatly appreciated for your work.
I will deeply look it out after finishing my exams.
Take care,
Have a nice day & trade.
RB
That makes a lot of sense Hammerman, and fits well with the update I have coming for Silver. Thanks very much.
DeleteI think Silver can test $32 next, then $33.50, then the spike down next week.
Hi SC, do you still see a major correction on the S&P happening shortly? Is the 980 target later this year still on the cards? What is the short and longer term outlook for the S&P.
ReplyDeleteThanks
We don't have a top yet, but April looks weaker than previous months - a month of whipsaws. A late April low around 1326 SPX looks good. May bounce, and then June and Sept are months when the bottom can fall out.
DeleteYou mean the top will show up on May?
DeleteI think top this month not much higher, then lower high in May.
DeleteThank you for your reply
DeleteYou are a decent man
No wonder everybody love you ~ ^ ^
VIX futures showing good strength again today.....perhaps the spike for HVU is coming?? SC, what do you think?
ReplyDeleteHI SC
ReplyDeleteIve been reviewing my data, and Ive come around to see the 10th as a potential PIVOT LOW - occurring during the noon hour
see the blog for further details
YEH, I know -- JAYWIZ is the KISS OF DEATH -- HAH !!
not so said the wizard.
PAY ATTENTION
Jay
Hi Jay
DeleteZIGZAG already predicted april 10 a low like 3 month ago...you are way way behind in your research...is your service free? cause ZIGZAG is free here...
Thanks!
Jay, why do you post here? SC, you should consider banning this person who clearly is here to promote himself.
DeleteDaym Jay,
DeleteJust when the bears have half a chance to get something going, you have to absolutely screw it up by being bearish. Don't be married to your shorts guys, the Wizard has speaketh. We bears are so screwed.
I have the 10th. +/- 1 day as a turning point...but can't tell
ReplyDeleteif it will be a high or low..
SC do you have any SPX charts coming on where we are and where we're going?
ReplyDeleteYes Sami, updates coming.
Deletess76
ReplyDeleteREAL GOOD POINT.........hes sooo lame and a REAL RUDE DUDE!
SC,
ReplyDeleteWhat about using March 20th as a "mirror" line in the gold daily chart. Would that suggest a large move up next using your symmetry technique? It looks like very good symmetry to me.
Let me take a look at that Blake, thanks. I'll have PM charts coming soon.
Deletecbear2
ReplyDeleteHes a real rude dude...........hes been callin crash for 3 months and when we finally get a set back he will sell the world on how good he is! SC make him go away.....hes tooo stupid to know we don't want what he is selling! He was a car salesman who got fired .....can't ya tell! j
Good call SC for silver. Silver is around $32 (a little bit under) so next move is $33.5 according to you. Let's see
ReplyDeleteI feel that the POS will not stop there yet.
ReplyDeleteIVE only been super bearish since MARCH 19th on that MONSTER sell signal generated by the INTERNALS as published
ReplyDeleteARMS 5day 69.6
trin 5 day 348
trin 10day 692
explanations were published with the data
March 19 = 1414
fell to 1391
ran to 1419 and topped at 1422 Monday-Apr2nd &
the day's reading was for OPTIMISM & EXPANSION
SO, from MAR19th to Apr 2nd the SPX gained 7pts- wow, super bullish, while ALL THE CHART patterns and data indicated a TOP forming.
IT is GOOD TO BE FOREWARNED
thus we can be ready when it hits
Thsday stands good chance of a deep plunge
the H&S NECK line support seems to be at 1340
THOSE who Bash others are deemed RUDE. maybe those posters should be banished
YES, I was in SALES, but not cars -- ughh
FOR 15 years, I was in the TOP 10% nationally out of 300 account execs with FIRST DATA Merchant services.
the BLOG offers sufficient FREE data without membership
for those who want to use it. BUT The VPN offers a lot more
YES, I know IM inviting MORE BASHING -- have at it !!
BEST WISHES to ALL,
Jaywiz