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Saturday, April 14, 2012

$SPX - Big Bounce Monday

SPX is poised to rocket higher Monday morning as it launches up and out of the triangle.  The minimum upside should be in the area of the green oval, but not higher than the red fork line.

A top on Monday or Tuesday (more likely) is to be followed by a steady plunge down to the maximum downside target at 1342 give or take.  April 23rd is the date indicated by the triangle apex for an important bottom.  There are other timing methods that I am using suggesting this date as well.

Interesting geometry lines up at the green arrow - it is a promising indication that the configuration is correct as this volatile April continues.

15min Chart
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19 comments:

  1. KlaatuApril 14, 2012 at 11:22 AM

    Nice chart layout SC. Thanks for the effort.

    Backing up your bullish Monday, I noted from Springheel Jack's blog,Channels and Patterns, the following:On tax deadline day,the Dow has only closed down 5x since 1981 and Monday of an April Opex has been up 15x in last 22x.
    Euro looks vulnerable and might effect markets this week. Good trading.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Trading SunsetApril 14, 2012 at 3:20 PM

    If you're right, you will deserve a gold star..or something better.

    I most definately agree with your target of 1340 - I've the same, based on short term weekly/monthly chart outlooks.

    Are you also guessing a mini H/S formation..with the 1340 low being the right side of the Head?

    Regardless, Good wishes !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 15, 2012 at 6:05 AM

      "Are you also guessing a mini H/S formation..with the 1340 low being the right side of the Head?"

      No, not in my work. After 1342 or so, I am expecting a new high in mid-May.

      Thanks, all the best to you too!

      Delete
  3. EllipseTradingApril 14, 2012 at 6:12 PM

    Maybe you should be worried. I also expect a bounce on monday :-)
    And COT data shows a lot of buying.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousApril 14, 2012 at 6:13 PM

    been a lurker for some time. without giving away your recipe, r u using gann, astro, bradley or sumthin else to forecast your positive/negative sentiment flows intraday?? keep up the GREAT work

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 15, 2012 at 6:13 AM

      It's a combination of a few historical cycles of price action. Long story, but I still tweaking it. When it shows extremes and trends it is quite reliable.

      In the future I plan to actually show the chart.

      Thank you.

      Delete
  5. Gold_GerbApril 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

    Amazing, I was just thinking of this move 30min ago.
    then I read SC's forecast.

    23rd eh? great minds think alike!
    http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2012/04/april-rain.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 15, 2012 at 6:16 AM

      Nice chart GG! Yes, the 23rd looks really promising for the low. Several methods are matching up for that date.

      Delete
  6. change.in.trend@gmail.comApril 14, 2012 at 9:37 PM

    http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/

    Important update

    ReplyDelete
  7. HousewifeMaggiApril 15, 2012 at 8:21 AM

    SC...I just wonder will you update your long-term view of S&P with after this uptrend from Oct 2011 till say March 2012? I recall your analysis in Jan 2012 was a 200 points decline in Jan 2012 - which did not materialise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 15, 2012 at 8:46 AM

      My longer term view is the same - bearish. According to my current analysis this bull run ends in May, and the bear market finally begins at that time.

      In May, I'll present the chart and target for that bear market. The bull run lasted longer and went higher than I anticipated earlier this year. However, this means my target for the coming bear market is lowered.

      Principles of physics are involved. It's an elastic band, and since the market stretched higher - it'll go lower in the future. In other words there is no free lunch when it comes to the markets. There is a future consequence for every move the market makes.

      Delete
    2. StevenApril 15, 2012 at 9:03 AM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. StevenApril 15, 2012 at 9:05 AM

      I want to ask the bear crash will happen before president's election? Obama and Bernanke will do all best to hold up the stocks market.

      Delete
    4. SCApril 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

      Starting from the May peak there will be large whipsaws. So yes, some of the bear market will be underway prior to elections, but the entire bear market will take longer. There will be bounces along the way.

      Delete
  8. TimerApril 15, 2012 at 9:46 AM

    Mars going direct over this weekend, if there is a reversal, this might be the cause.

    But scanning the NYSE internal momentum, I can't see any reason for the price to jump up.

    So my bias is to the downside..as the larger internal momentum deterioration and larger cycle is pointing to the downside. Throw in Spain, Italy and what have you. The fuel of worries will power the slide to the downside with even more speed.

    ReplyDelete
  9. monadApril 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM

    SC
    What's your comment about silver and gold on Monday and Tuesday?
    targets please...
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  10. sun_shineApril 16, 2012 at 6:36 AM

    SC, at what level would you consider selling XIV and getting into UVXY/HVU? I am assuming you will make the switch sometime tomorrow. Thx.

    ReplyDelete

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