I sold my UVXY. I think it is coming down again soon. I still see plenty of volatility in April, but I prefer to look for a better entry on it in a few days.
Hi SC, You are expecting a bounce on silver to 33.5 spot followed by the big drop next week ? (we dropped to 31.5 so far and it still looks like it has a ways to go). What time frame to get to 33.5 ? Looks like we're headed to 30.9 and if it breaks below that it could be a free fall. Gold approaching 1615, if it breaks below also very bad
I think what could happen here is that Silver/Gold bounce, and then come down again next week. Gold may dip a touch lower next week but little. Gold could even put in a higher low next week with Silver reaching a lower low.
I'm thinking you believe that this bounce for HVU is a sell opportunity.......lower prices coming before days end and probably tomorrow I think.
I now actually think the jobs numbers will be good on Friday, but not sure if that will be positive or negative for the market as a good jobs number reduces the likelyhood of QE3..
There are a few reasons. Things could start to go quiet since we are approaching the holiday. My cycle analysis is negative for Fri, but then mildly positive early next week.
I am going to size things up tomorrow and see if it makes sense to take any positions for the weekend.
For UVXY or HVU, people should remember that VIX do not go high always when market drop, market could drop due to many reason such as profit taking, pull back etc. that doesn't mean VIX will rise sharply....unless there are bad news VIX will move around range...
With current situation, markets are very stable and no panic so chances are VIX will dip again even market goes lower.
I agree with stockboom, current market conditions look more like a correction rather than fear trade. VIX is spiking moderately but unless it goes and stays above 20, the market bulls will keep fighting. Mid to end of April will be interesting, I think the bulls will give a good fight all the way down to a 5-7% correction.
There are some really weak spots throughout April, but I think it is going to be choppy. Similar to what we have seen recently, but the movements larger.
SC, will you buy HVU or UVXY before todays close? I am thinking with a robust job report tomorrow, and Spanish yields continuing to rise, the perfect storm is approaching as you predicted....We have gone up on the SPX for so long, no reason why it can't come down for an extended period. What worries me is that in an election year, they will ultimately push it up. Just wondering if the big fall happens first....which would be soon just enough to let QE3 boost the market in time for the election.
More likely I'll wait until next week. I agree with the rest. The weakest months in my work are June and Sept. There is room in there for some strong bounces also.
Great, thanks SC. I think I'll buy HVU before todays out, as I think tomorrows jobs report will actually be strong, and dampen further the thought of QE3....with a long weekend, anything can happen too...
Now, is the opposite true also? Do you feel that if UVXY tanks into the close as it has done the last few sessions, that in fact will bounce Monday?
Just trying to figure out how to position myself. I am in HVI (the canadian version of XIV) and not sure if I want to hold it or HVU or either over the weekend....
IMO the USD at 80.07 is still climbing and should make the 80.4 trend line. It may tag the 81.7 upper main trend line too next week (which fits with your 2nd drop in PM) but the problem I see is that USD is very late in its 6 month cycle for 81.7. It is in month 5 of 6 and month 11 of 18 for the 1 1/2 year cycle. So, if the dollar caves at 80.4, then Jan was a USD cycle top - 2.5 of 6 months and PM's are on there way up to the end of April from there - no lower low maybe. If it tags 81.7, then you will be spot on for a big drop in PM next week in IMO. Also, USD is in day 2 of 33 (roughly) on a monthly and looking very left translated meaning topping in the next week is very reasonable.
Importantly Gold took out the March 22nd low. Silver put in a double bottom with the 22nd. In my work this suggests some more downside for Silver regardless of bounces.
Hy, sc i think sold Uvxy it's a big , big mistake. Futures plunge after data job and monday vix , uvxy and Tvix climb to the moon... Panic selling incoming... Fear incoming and start a new cyclical bear market incoming. Your roadmap for sp500 ? thanks.
Friday was negative in my cycle analysis but then early next week is mildly positive. So it will be interesing to see how it plays out. A lower open, then rally makes sense.
Sami, his tweets are blocked. Can you re-post here? I appreciate that he is not married to his views/positions and is willing to adopt to changing market conditions.
Zig Zag, do you see rally in metals coinciding with main market rally into may?
Yeas but first a steep correction in markets..Then a big rally..But hes been wrong before about this..No one know what will happen in Europe. Its a mess! A steep correction must be like 10-15% in short order.
I don't know if anyone could give me some insight here, but I'm holding a ton of TVIX, and I'm not sure what to do with it b/c of this contango, decay, etc. stuff that I do not understand. I realize that I have been stupid, dumb, naive, and all of those other negative things, and this is my own fault. Again...all of this is realized; however, I just want to come out with as little loss as possible or perhaps even a profit or a break even scenario. I bought at $17.35, and as I stated I have LOTS of shares. I don't know how to find out how much decay/contango is happening, so I'm not sure whether to keep holding and hoping (which already got me into the deep hole of trouble I'm into currently) or cut my losses (which would be extremely severe). Thanks.
Wolf Haldenstein Announces Investigation of VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term Exchange Traded Notes
2012-03-29 17:19 ET - News Release
NEW YORK -- (Business Wire)
Attorney Advertising. The law firm of Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP is investigating possible wrongdoing by Credit Suisse and others concerning trading in, and disclosure related to, VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETN (Ticker Symbol: TVIX) during the period of February 21, 2012 – March 26, 2012.
On February 21, 2012, Credit Suisse announced that it had temporarily suspended further issuances of the VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETNs due to internal limits on the size of the ETNs. As a result of the suspension, shares of TVIX subsequently traded at prices uncorrelated to the VIX index – the index that the ETN was supposed to track through the use of VIX futures. This “disconnect” lasted for approximately one month.
On March 22, 2012, shares of TVIX declined in price by over 29% as short-selling increased dramatically and suddenly. That evening, Credit Suisse announced that it would reopen issuance of TVIX shares on a limited basis. On March 23, 2012, shares of TVIX declined further by almost 30%.
Wolf Haldenstein has been representing individual and institutional investors for many years, serving as lead counsel in numerous cases in U.S. federal and state courts. Please visit the Wolf Haldenstein website (http://www.whafh.com) for more information about the firm.
If you are an institutional investor who owned VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETNs (TVIX) on March 22 & 23, 2012 and you wish to discuss this matter with us, or have any questions concerning your rights and interests with regard to this matter, please contact:
Gregory Nespole or Alan Weiss Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP 270 Madison Avenue New York, New York 10016 Phone Numbers: (800) 575-0735 (212) 545-4600
I do think there are spots in April when the VIX can pop, and so you may be able to recoup somewhat. My plan is to be selective and pick and chose a few spots in April, but I don't see this as a long term hold.
SC, as the disappointed job report released on Friday, do you think the market may start a dip correction next week. As I sold my HVU on a big loss, I hope I can recover some loss by following your plan in April which should be a very volatile month.
you still waiting for 17 dollar silver... I know you expected it to happen in Feb, but it got pushed to march. Seeing that March is over are you expecting it to occur in april or has the time analysis pushed further out.
ratandrea: This person offers a free blog and a paid newsletter with a lot of good information about trading vix etf's. I think the current contango decay is about 11 per cent per month.
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/
Tvix and uvxy can spike 30 even 40 per cent in a day or two but unless we get some sort of panic going in the market they will quickly go back down. A lot of people are expecting a market panic soon so you will have to decide whether to play for the one or two day spikes or to bet on a larger scale move down, knowing you are losing about 11 per cent a month (that figure may be wrong, it's just what I heard).The tvix trade became extremely popular on a great many message boards in the last 2 months and in not one of them did I ever see this contango thing mentioned.
Also when a rally is expected my understanding is that xiv gains from the contango just as tvix loses from it.
Well I will remain short based not exclusively on this but it is a BIG factor.....positively terrifying....The Fed have managed to do it yet again. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p06064550651
I sold my UVXY. I think it is coming down again soon. I still see plenty of volatility in April, but I prefer to look for a better entry on it in a few days.
ReplyDeleteRight around here could be the bottom for Gold.
ReplyDeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteYou are expecting a bounce on silver to 33.5 spot followed by the big drop next week ? (we dropped to 31.5 so far and it still looks like it has a ways to go). What time frame to get to 33.5 ? Looks like we're headed to 30.9 and if it breaks below that it could be a free fall.
Gold approaching 1615, if it breaks below also very bad
Not on April 10th for gold ?
ReplyDeleteI think what could happen here is that Silver/Gold bounce, and then come down again next week. Gold may dip a touch lower next week but little. Gold could even put in a higher low next week with Silver reaching a lower low.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeletePlease let us know when you reenter UVXY or HVU.
Thanks
Will do.
DeleteSC, are you sure that gold will not dip under $1600 today or tomorrow ?
ReplyDeleteIt could but I don't see much. Let's give it a little time here.
DeleteI'm thinking you believe that this bounce for HVU is a sell opportunity.......lower prices coming before days end and probably tomorrow I think.
ReplyDeleteI now actually think the jobs numbers will be good on Friday, but not sure if that will be positive or negative for the market as a good jobs number reduces the likelyhood of QE3..
There are a few reasons. Things could start to go quiet since we are approaching the holiday. My cycle analysis is negative for Fri, but then mildly positive early next week.
DeleteI am going to size things up tomorrow and see if it makes sense to take any positions for the weekend.
SPX at the orange fork target.
ReplyDeleteSCApr 2, 2012 08:34 AM
SPX bounced exactly at the midfork shown above 1404.50 this morning.
It should dip again soon imo. 1398 is a downside level to watch at the orange fork shown in previous analysis.
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteWhy would you leave UVXY so early? you dont think today is a down day at all?
Thanks!
We're at a support for SPX, and have the holiday approaching. Things could go quiet and that would mean little volatility.
DeleteFor UVXY or HVU, people should remember that VIX do not go high always when market drop, market could drop due to many reason such as profit taking, pull back etc. that doesn't mean VIX will rise sharply....unless there are bad news VIX will move around range...
ReplyDeleteWith current situation, markets are very stable and no panic so chances are VIX will dip again even market goes lower.
SC did I make sense?
Thanks
Generally that is the case.
DeleteI agree with stockboom, current market conditions look more like a correction rather than fear trade. VIX is spiking moderately but unless it goes and stays above 20, the market bulls will keep fighting. Mid to end of April will be interesting, I think the bulls will give a good fight all the way down to a 5-7% correction.
DeleteMARKETS
ReplyDeletehttp://img401.imageshack.us/img401/6503/beansw.jpg
http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/2421/emini.jpg
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteyou have any target for the next low for UVXY?
Thanks!
Let's see tomorrow, and can then fine tune the numbers.
DeleteGOLD
ReplyDeletehttp://img94.imageshack.us/img94/6136/goldct.jpg
Anyone going long on Gold or silver for 24 hrs? I am thinking maybe short covering before long weekend will occur soon.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Funny how the S&P 500 always creeps back up in the last half hour. Back above 20MA again.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletecan you tell us what price you sold your UVXY at?
Thanks!
David
$16.35
DeleteSC
ReplyDeletedidnt you mention that all first 3 weeks of april appears to be weak>?
thx
There are some really weak spots throughout April, but I think it is going to be choppy. Similar to what we have seen recently, but the movements larger.
ReplyDeleteSC, will you buy HVU or UVXY before todays close? I am thinking with a robust job report tomorrow, and Spanish yields continuing to rise, the perfect storm is approaching as you predicted....We have gone up on the SPX for so long, no reason why it can't come down for an extended period. What worries me is that in an election year, they will ultimately push it up. Just wondering if the big fall happens first....which would be soon just enough to let QE3 boost the market in time for the election.
ReplyDeleteMore likely I'll wait until next week. I agree with the rest. The weakest months in my work are June and Sept. There is room in there for some strong bounces also.
DeleteGreat, thanks SC. I think I'll buy HVU before todays out, as I think tomorrows jobs report will actually be strong, and dampen further the thought of QE3....with a long weekend, anything can happen too...
DeleteI think Monday could be an up day for the mkts so will likely wait until Monday. Let's see how it looks at the end of the day today.
DeleteWhat will sway you this afteroon on how Monday could shape up?
DeleteIf UVXY rallies into the close, then I think it'll tumble on Monday.
DeleteSorry, you think the market will tumble on Monday, or UVXY?
DeleteUVXY
DeleteThat is really interesting SC. Why would UVXY rally into the close and tank Monday? Is it because the fear of the long weekend would not be realized?
DeleteThere is a pattern I am watching which is mainly why, but your comment makes sense too.
DeleteNow, is the opposite true also? Do you feel that if UVXY tanks into the close as it has done the last few sessions, that in fact will bounce Monday?
DeleteJust trying to figure out how to position myself. I am in HVI (the canadian version of XIV) and not sure if I want to hold it or HVU or either over the weekend....
I think the probability is for mkts to bounce Monday, but not so sure I want to be in XIV either. I haven't decided, but may do neither.
DeleteSC
ReplyDeleteVery nice job on gold and silver !
IMO the USD at 80.07 is still climbing and should make the 80.4 trend line. It may tag the 81.7 upper main trend line too next week (which fits with your 2nd drop in PM) but the problem I see is that USD is very late in its 6 month cycle for 81.7. It is in month 5 of 6 and month 11 of 18 for the 1 1/2 year cycle. So, if the dollar caves at 80.4, then Jan was a USD cycle top - 2.5 of 6 months and PM's are on there way up to the end of April from there - no lower low maybe. If it tags 81.7, then you will be spot on for a big drop in PM next week in IMO.
Also, USD is in day 2 of 33 (roughly) on a monthly and looking very left translated meaning topping in the next week is very reasonable.
Good thoughts on the USD, thank you. This is an important time.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteAlso, I'm seeing a bump to maybe 32 on silver but not 33.5 before the fall. Are you still thinking to see up to 33.5 before the drop next week ?
No, Silver came close to $33.50 on April 3rd, and then fell quite a bit already so probably won't make it back there just yet.
DeleteWhat are you implying ? What is the next move for silver in your opinion ?
DeleteThanks
SPX bounced exactly at the lower pink fork line, now at the orange line.
ReplyDeleteLines are 1393 and 1397.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteDo you have a price range where you plan to go back into UVXY now?
Thanks!
There is a pattern that I am waiting to see. I'll let you know once it develops some more. I do think it can come down quite a bit.
DeleteImportantly Gold took out the March 22nd low. Silver put in a double bottom with the 22nd. In my work this suggests some more downside for Silver regardless of bounces.
ReplyDeleteSC, what is your maximum upside target for silver ? Yesterday you said 33.50 ? Is it still valid ?
ReplyDeleteIt is still possible that it could reach that level.
DeleteSo SC. how does next week look?
ReplyDeletemildly positive all week?
thanks
It is mildly positive early next week. Then quite negative late next week and also early the following week.
DeleteThanks, and for precious metals, gold and silver are going to rise in the middle of next week ?
ReplyDeleteBouncing now, but still see some downside next week. I would say rise early in the week, fall later in the week.
DeleteHI BOBO
DeleteDITTO for metals, OIL, SPX AFTER MONDAY
Jaywiz
Hi SC
ReplyDeletewhat position you think is best to hold over this long weekend, long or short snp?
Thanks!
Better odds for long imo, but not a given.
Deleterelying on others "opinions/guesses" is a recipe to go broke.. no crystal balls (blogs)
ReplyDeleteLeft translated USD dollar
ReplyDeletehttp://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/
SPY WEEKLY
ReplyDeletehttp://img217.imageshack.us/img217/328/spywkly.jpg
Joed- Excellent call for top on "DOW BE AWARE"
DeleteThanks for sharing.
Thanks joed, could you explain your chart more? You mean we could get another high above 1400 on June?
DeleteCompliment Joed for your call on the Dow. Right at the day. Have a nice easter.
DeleteHy, sc i think sold Uvxy it's a big , big mistake. Futures plunge after data job and monday vix , uvxy and Tvix climb to the moon... Panic selling incoming... Fear incoming and start a new cyclical bear market incoming. Your roadmap for sp500 ? thanks.
ReplyDeleteDisastrous NFP and early signs of panic emerging over Spainish bond market.
ReplyDeleteThings could get very ugly next week
Ugly can be beautiful.
DeleteTBONDS
ReplyDeletehttp://img842.imageshack.us/img842/6876/tbondsallll.jpg
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteDo you still see Monday as mildly positive after that Job report today and looking at the future price? any changes you seeing?
Thanks!
could be a gap down and rally... that is still "strong"
DeleteFriday was negative in my cycle analysis but then early next week is mildly positive. So it will be interesing to see how it plays out. A lower open, then rally makes sense.
DeleteZigZag,
ReplyDeleteApril 10th?
http://tinyurl.com/dymwoug
can it be off a day?
btw, love the hourly T's. when they work.
let's see what Sunday brings.
http://i39.tinypic.com/1zpjzw9.png
the example, I believe you called was a collision T.
Deletewhen instead of getting a high, you get the opposite.
March 23rd was a day off, so this next low could be closer to 11th-12th. Should be a nice run higher to May 8th once it starts.
Delete"Live long and prosper" :-)
YES it can be the 9th as indicated by SCIENTIFIC resources
DeleteJay
SCIENTIFIC resources my ass, Jay.
DeleteATilla has gone bullish and calling for all time highs later this year... bears are Screwed as he is right almost 100% of the time - the exact timing.
ReplyDeleteTime to redo charts...I almost puked when I read his tweet today
Not this time Sami.
DeleteSami, his tweets are blocked. Can you re-post here?
DeleteI appreciate that he is not married to his views/positions and is willing to adopt to changing market conditions.
Zig Zag, do you see rally in metals coinciding with main market rally into may?
thanks.
I don't follow the metals very much.. My guess is they will follow along and go up once the low is put in this week.
DeleteYeas but first a steep correction in markets..Then a big rally..But hes been wrong before about this..No one know what will happen in Europe. Its a mess! A steep correction must be like 10-15% in short order.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if anyone could give me some insight here, but I'm holding a ton of TVIX, and I'm not sure what to do with it b/c of this contango, decay, etc. stuff that I do not understand. I realize that I have been stupid, dumb, naive, and all of those other negative things, and this is my own fault. Again...all of this is realized; however, I just want to come out with as little loss as possible or perhaps even a profit or a break even scenario. I bought at $17.35, and as I stated I have LOTS of shares. I don't know how to find out how much decay/contango is happening, so I'm not sure whether to keep holding and hoping (which already got me into the deep hole of trouble I'm into currently) or cut my losses (which would be extremely severe). Thanks.
ReplyDeleteWolf Haldenstein Announces Investigation of VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term Exchange Traded Notes
Delete2012-03-29 17:19 ET - News Release
NEW YORK -- (Business Wire)
Attorney Advertising. The law firm of Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP is investigating possible wrongdoing by Credit Suisse and others concerning trading in, and disclosure related to, VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETN (Ticker Symbol: TVIX) during the period of February 21, 2012 – March 26, 2012.
On February 21, 2012, Credit Suisse announced that it had temporarily suspended further issuances of the VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETNs due to internal limits on the size of the ETNs. As a result of the suspension, shares of TVIX subsequently traded at prices uncorrelated to the VIX index – the index that the ETN was supposed to track through the use of VIX futures. This “disconnect” lasted for approximately one month.
On March 22, 2012, shares of TVIX declined in price by over 29% as short-selling increased dramatically and suddenly. That evening, Credit Suisse announced that it would reopen issuance of TVIX shares on a limited basis. On March 23, 2012, shares of TVIX declined further by almost 30%.
Wolf Haldenstein has been representing individual and institutional investors for many years, serving as lead counsel in numerous cases in U.S. federal and state courts. Please visit the Wolf Haldenstein website (http://www.whafh.com) for more information about the firm.
If you are an institutional investor who owned VelocityShares 2x Long VIX Short Term ETNs (TVIX) on March 22 & 23, 2012 and you wish to discuss this matter with us, or have any questions concerning your rights and interests with regard to this matter, please contact:
Gregory Nespole or Alan Weiss
Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP
270 Madison Avenue
New York, New York 10016
Phone Numbers:
(800) 575-0735
(212) 545-4600
Email: nespole@whafh.com
aweiss@whafh.com
Classmember@whafh.com
Website: http://www.whafh.com
Attorney Advertising. Prior Results Do Not Guarantee A Similar Outcome.
Contacts:
Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP
Gregory Nespole or Alan Weiss
800-575-0735
212-545-4600
nespole@whafh.com
aweiss@whafh.com
Classmember@whafh.com
Website: http://www.whafh.com
Source: Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP
I do think there are spots in April when the VIX can pop, and so you may be able to recoup somewhat. My plan is to be selective and pick and chose a few spots in April, but I don't see this as a long term hold.
DeleteSC, as the disappointed job report released on Friday, do you think the market may start a dip correction next week. As I sold my HVU on a big loss, I hope I can recover some loss by following your plan in April which should be a very volatile month.
DeleteI do think I have a good plan for April Chester, stay tuned.
DeletePOWER DATA for Monday thru Wed is showing some WILD SWINGS POSSIBLE
ReplyDeleteMon opens down & recovers later.
Tuesday continues to mid day, then backs off
WED starts flat, but drops till about 1pm, then recovers
THE rest of the week will be available late Sunday
Jaywiz
SC,
ReplyDeleteyou still waiting for 17 dollar silver... I know you expected it to happen in Feb, but it got pushed to march. Seeing that March is over are you expecting it to occur in april or has the time analysis pushed further out.
My large pattern for Silver remains bullish from the low in Dec. So I am looking for a higher low to be put in soon and then head up again.
DeleteSC... so your saying we won't go above the 1430 mark you said this year?
ReplyDeleteThe outlook is bearish for the year. Right now I'm showing short term charts outlining the chop. I do think it all resolves to the downside.
Deleteratandrea:
ReplyDeleteThis person offers a free blog and a paid newsletter with a lot of good information about trading vix etf's. I think the current contango decay is about 11 per cent per month.
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/
Tvix and uvxy can spike 30 even 40 per cent in a day or two but unless we get some sort of panic going in the market they will quickly go back down. A lot of people are expecting a market panic soon so you will have to decide whether to play for the one or two day spikes or to bet on a larger scale move down, knowing you are losing about 11 per cent a month (that figure may be wrong, it's just what I heard).The tvix trade became extremely popular on a great many message boards in the last 2 months and in not one of them did I ever see this contango thing mentioned.
Also when a rally is expected my understanding is that xiv gains from the contango just as tvix loses from it.
So you are not expecting your 17 dollar crash anymore?
ReplyDeleteWhat I see is that a low will be formed soon then a run up to $38-39. Once that top is complete, then yes, Silver is heading for $17 by my analysis.
DeleteWell I will remain short based not exclusively on this but it is a BIG factor.....positively terrifying....The Fed have managed to do it yet again.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p06064550651