Though VIX has some limited downside to test supports near term, the bigger picture is that the VIX target is in the 60+ range.
3day Chart
Let's take a look at TVIX aka the "widowmaker". TVIX will probably still put in a slight higher high first in coming weeks. The timing cycles suggest a potential bottoming date may be Feb 8-9th approximately.
SC, Thanks for the update. Don't feel down by the naysayers. We all support and respect your analysis. Keep your spirit up and the firework is coming. Thanks for looking at TVIX. This baby has caused me much pain and joy at the same time!! It's supposed to be 2X VIX ETF, but the correlation is rarely 2X and sometimes VIX can be up and TVIX is actually down!! But the price projection of TVIX is difficult to predict. The VIX hits 47 2 times last year, in Aug and Oct. TVIX was at 60 in Aug and 110 in Oct at its peak. I wonder what kind of price TVIX will be if VIX hits 60+....I surely wish to see it happens
ReplyDeleteThank you curiousmind.
ReplyDeleteThe TVIX trades off the VIX futures so it will reflect the futures, but trade differently than the VIX itself. There is a ton of decay in TVIX especially during a period of volatility such as we had in August/September.
For this reason even with a VIX at 60, TVIX probably wouldn't make it over 110. I have not looked at a price target for TVIX yet. Better to wait until it is closer in time and then review the charts.
I plan to post my live trades and positions on the site. This is going to be a fun year!
ReplyDeleteCool! Full disclosure, love it!
DeleteThanks SC for you transparency !!
ReplyDeleteBtw, what do you see for silver this week ?
Thank you, I have a plan and charts coming for Silver.
DeleteI will look forward to see your silver and gold comments a.s.a.p.
ReplyDeletethanks.
RB
Thanks again SC...does the Feb8-9 low in VIX coincide with your timing of SPX topping? I would also love to see your silver and gold updates?
ReplyDeleteUsually the VIX bottoms and SPX tops don't line up exactly. So I will chart the timing on SPX separately. Having said that, the timing has important implications for SPX as well. I'll explain what I mean by this statement soon. Thanks.
DeleteHy guys, i am expecting correction incoming in next four weeks.......
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletehttp://twitter.com/#!/BULLISH70/status/158610089228505089/photo/1
ReplyDeleteSC, thank you for weekend updates. Don't feel bad, nobody can time market perfectly. People need to realize what you present here is just your view, and one of the possibilities.
ReplyDeleteSC-
ReplyDeleteAppreciate all your Comments. I have been holding thousands of shares of TVIX with an average of $20. Getting killed, down 70K. Really appreciate any insights into when you see this baby turning. I can't do the bloodbath much longer. VIX up 4 % today, and TVIX still down. If she goes down to 12-ish range, I will be wiped!
Any thoughts appreciated! Another VIX/TVIX analysis would be great!
I bought a large position at $14.48, down slightly, but holding it. A turn up to $21-23 looks imminent to me.
DeleteThe VIX is ready to move higher. Lots of hammer candles on the VIX lately. So TVIX looks stretched on the downside. It could go slightly lower but not much so I will hold tight. I think it is a rubber band ready to pop higher.