I've only shown the topping formation with this chart. I thought I would show some short term charts in addition to the bigger picture.
Yes, I do see the next major target at 1044. Last week I saw a top and decline starting on Dec 28th. It did work, but was a false start for the bigger play. No problem. My bigger picture and target are still the same. It'll take patience but will be well worth it.
Thanks SC and happy new year. I'm new to your blog and fascinated by your fractals TA. I know nothing about the fractal technigue, can you direct me to a site, a book,an article that can get me on the road to learn and follow your work.Thanks!
I use a combination of different techniques. Many of these I have developed myself such as various different cycles, patterns, and symmetry methods that I use.
Some techniques such as the "Andrews pitchforks" are available. You could probably find quite a bit about that on the internet or books.
There is an art and science to using these, and like anything else practise and experience are the keys to applying them and making profits.
All the best in 2012! This is going to be an exciting year with huge moves!!
"This is going to be an exciting year with huge moves!!"
If Walter Zimmerman is correct, the mother of all moves will begin shortly...
"United-ICAP senior technical analyst Walter Zimmerman says the S&P 500 could rally a little further into January before beginning a “traumatic decline” for the rest of 2012, dragged down by weakness in Europe.
How traumatic? You might want to sit down for this one.
He thinks the index will reach its 2012 peak in the 1293-1311 zone, then start a “sharp and sustained drop” until December. His downside target is around 579.57."
Below 600 during an election year would be the death nail for the Dem's and they know it. I see them proping things up somehow until after the election is over. Ernie at Apple investor is predicting the S&P at 1650 by years end. Who knows, but it may be another one of those years things don't make sence.
Crash is a term used too often on bear blogs and it gets everybody excited. I generally scan the bear blogs that use crash and fade them. I also use bull blogs the use "explode Higher or massive short squeeze" as and an indicator. Bottom line is that as a trader you can be neither. You have to put the wild projections aside and just trade the market up or down.
Agreed, crash is an overused term, I simply meant a significant selloff is in order due to various fractals playing out and tend to agree with SC that we'll have two selloffs, the first takes us below the October lows, followed by a rebound and the second should take the SPX well into the triple digits.
My idea is confirmed if the DX embarks upon a significant rally above and beyond 80, otherwise the market could remain choppy for quite sometime or even bullish. Though technically/fundamentally that doesn't seem so possible here given the confluence of resistance levels many markets are at right now. Let's see what happens here, will be quite telling for sure.
Thank you for sharing your insight. I missed the chance to get on the silver board and now afraid of get on since it jumped too much today, over 7%. Do you think it is still find or not too late to buy SLV? Or it's better to wait to pullback? In advance, thank you so much.
I think $ 26 was a bottom level. Now silver is at $ 29.54. At the end of the week, $ 31 is possible. Pullbacks are possible but not this week, in my opinion.
SC, whats your take on oil? i see some interesting resistances around this level, as well as time fibo turning points. Do you see it trading down to ~65 after we top out in 103 - 106 area? thanks.
Oil may have a shot at 107 or so, but then I do see it declining along with SPX. It may not make it into the 60's but I do think the Oct low at 75 can be tested.
Just to be clear I'm showing these short term charts only to fine tune the topping process and timing setup for the large decline down to the target at 1044.
Some traders are more nimble than others, but generally in these situations the tendency is to over trade the market here chasing the top tick, instead of focusing on what is really important - the big picture to the downside.
SC, GSratio still seems to be interested in testing 60 (perhaps 60+) level briefly achieved in late september which makes me think that silver and gold will retest their respective lows and perhaps dive even lower during this coming downturn. http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/3649/streamingserver0687249.gif
Thanks, that is interesting. It does appear that the ratio can push higher, but I'm not sure that necessarily means that Gold and Silver must decline. Remember, my theory is that Gold should outperform Silver to start. Once that blue trendline breaks, the ratio falls and then Silver goes parabolic.
SC, yes it is possible for the ratio to go up and both metals go up but unless you are looking for gold move several hundred $'s up in a few days period i say we drop one more time.
p.s. The most recent flag pole height is 15, the fear trade in aug gave us only 7.
Happy New Year All! Just returned from Colorado, family ski trip that was well deserved!
The more I look at SI, the more I like what I see...sticking with AGQ. Here is a fractal compare - the two grey are 1.618 time & price. http://screencast.com/t/rtwFRG90gmO
If we stay congruent, it appears we consolidate for a few days, setting up a deep 2. The 10th (red fib) is 100% time match from the top fractal. A TL backtest would be expected. http://screencast.com/t/gOPngrHIcYl2
Longer term chart refined: http://screencast.com/t/xFosRYf575
Will be interesting to see if PM's & equities finally diverge....
I usually wait for confirmation, but I started my 1/2 position in shorting this market just a few minutes ago. I like to wait until there is confirmation on a move, ...but I may be a day or so early. Bought 1/2 positions in TZA at 25.83 and TVIX at 27.24. The MACD is on the verge for crossing to the upside on both of those, but still like to see this happen before I buy the other half of these positions.
I don't post here often, but thought I would this trade. I do see the market as topping out now, but didn't see the point of shorting until the year end rally and new year's optimism.
Theendsend, zoom out a bit.. since gold's sept 5th top dollar index moved up 5 points and gold bullion lost 400$/oz, no decoupling yet. Dollar up/metals down.
dollar seems to be spiking above march - june 2008 resistance line.. interesting. August 8 2008 was when we broke out above this line back then, marked the beginning of the down turn.
I entirely agree with you, but since the begining of the week, there is something new : the change is gold price is greater that the change in dollar index (eventhough there is still a negative correlation between $ index and gold)
All I'm saying is that TODAY, Gold is up while the US$ is Up and up alot. A week ago, that was not happening.Gold could be starting to be looked upon as a safe haven again.
All I am looking for now is a higher high a few points higher than Tuesday's 1285. 1289 or so - not much higher. We're into the final ticks of the top. Top out today/tomorrow and then selloff into mid next week.
I have a plan and charts coming to show how things can unfold this month.
@ 1inbluemoon, Every walk begins with a first step. I am long GLD and take comfort in the fact that the Euro is down 1.22% vrs the US$ and Gold is up. I see GLD getting to 166 in the ST. Today's action helps support that thought.
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteI dont see 1044 in your chart with that white line. Is it out of question now with that target?
Thanks!
I've only shown the topping formation with this chart. I thought I would show some short term charts in addition to the bigger picture.
ReplyDeleteYes, I do see the next major target at 1044. Last week I saw a top and decline starting on Dec 28th. It did work, but was a false start for the bigger play. No problem. My bigger picture and target are still the same. It'll take patience but will be well worth it.
Thanks SC and happy new year.
ReplyDeleteI'm new to your blog and fascinated by your fractals TA. I know nothing about the fractal technigue, can you direct me to a site, a book,an article that can get me on the road to learn and follow your work.Thanks!
Happy New Year to you as well Farhad!
ReplyDeleteI use a combination of different techniques. Many of these I have developed myself such as various different cycles, patterns, and symmetry methods that I use.
Some techniques such as the "Andrews pitchforks" are available. You could probably find quite a bit about that on the internet or books.
There is an art and science to using these, and like anything else practise and experience are the keys to applying them and making profits.
All the best in 2012! This is going to be an exciting year with huge moves!!
"This is going to be an exciting year with huge moves!!"
ReplyDeleteIf Walter Zimmerman is correct, the mother of all moves will begin shortly...
"United-ICAP senior technical analyst Walter Zimmerman says the S&P 500 could rally a little further into January before beginning a “traumatic decline” for the rest of 2012, dragged down by weakness in Europe.
How traumatic? You might want to sit down for this one.
He thinks the index will reach its 2012 peak in the 1293-1311 zone, then start a “sharp and sustained drop” until December. His downside target is around 579.57."
http://tinyurl.com/motherofallmoves
Thank you for all the work you do on this blog.
ZigZag.
ReplyDeletewhat does your road map look like for this month and next?
we arent even going to test 120 before 130+?
thanks
Below 600 during an election year would be the death nail for the Dem's and they know it. I see them proping things up somehow until after the election is over. Ernie at Apple investor is predicting the S&P at 1650 by years end. Who knows, but it may be another one of those years things don't make sence.
ReplyDeleteSC your 1st chart matches mine to a tee.1265-70 tomorrow,one last push to 1280-88 than hard down
ReplyDeleteMaybe hard down into the 9th-11th but this is not a top. 1240ish?
ReplyDeleteHigher than today into thursday then I would scalp short but only scalp as I see us moving to make a slightly higher high than thursday.
Then we can see but no chance of a crash before the 18th.
Check this post later in the month and see how it played out.
A crash will be dependent on when S&P releases their France/Eurozone downgrades. This will no doubt rock the market just as the US downgrade did.
ReplyDeleteCrash is a term used too often on bear blogs and it gets everybody excited.
ReplyDeleteI generally scan the bear blogs that use crash and fade them. I also use bull blogs the use "explode Higher or massive short squeeze" as and an indicator.
Bottom line is that as a trader you can be neither. You have to put the wild projections aside and just trade the market up or down.
Yes, I agree it is an overused term. Having said that from my patterns I am quite sure that we'll see 2 crashes in the first half of 2012...
ReplyDeleteHi stevesteve121,
ReplyDeleteMarket could resemble something like this by the time we hit October.
http://tinyurl.com/8yjk4em
For now, I doubt we'll see the market trading below this NYA cycle low chart that I posted on Dec 13th.
http://tinyurl.com/72f86vj
Agreed, crash is an overused term, I simply meant a significant selloff is in order due to various fractals playing out and tend to agree with SC that we'll have two selloffs, the first takes us below the October lows, followed by a rebound and the second should take the SPX well into the triple digits.
ReplyDeleteLol! I think Zig-Zag disagrees.
ReplyDeleteThe good news is you can trade both just don't be married to either.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMy idea is confirmed if the DX embarks upon a significant rally above and beyond 80, otherwise the market could remain choppy for quite sometime or even bullish. Though technically/fundamentally that doesn't seem so possible here given the confluence of resistance levels many markets are at right now. Let's see what happens here, will be quite telling for sure.
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing your insight. I missed the chance to get on the silver board and now afraid of get on since it jumped too much today, over 7%. Do you think it is still find or not too late to buy SLV? Or it's better to wait to pullback? In advance, thank you so much.
ReplyDeleteI think $ 26 was a bottom level.
ReplyDeleteNow silver is at $ 29.54. At the end of the week, $ 31 is possible. Pullbacks are possible but not this week, in my opinion.
Silver was looking a little "hot" yesterday. I think it'll cool off, flatten out with better spots to accumulate during the next week.
ReplyDeleteAnother consideration is that Gold is likely to be the better performer in Jan with Silver better in Feb. Both good overall.
Also, both Gold and Silver rose with SPX yesterday. More importantly they outperformed.
SC, whats your take on oil? i see some interesting resistances around this level, as well as time fibo turning points. Do you see it trading down to ~65 after we top out in 103 - 106 area? thanks.
ReplyDeleteOil may have a shot at 107 or so, but then I do see it declining along with SPX. It may not make it into the 60's but I do think the Oct low at 75 can be tested.
ReplyDeleteSPX is in the short term target range.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteyou expect a bounce from here short term? then sell off after tomorrow?
Thanks!
Yes, short term bounce just a touch higher than yesterday and then selloff.
ReplyDeleteJust to be clear I'm showing these short term charts only to fine tune the topping process and timing setup for the large decline down to the target at 1044.
ReplyDeleteSome traders are more nimble than others, but generally in these situations the tendency is to over trade the market here chasing the top tick, instead of focusing on what is really important - the big picture to the downside.
SC, GSratio still seems to be interested in testing 60 (perhaps 60+) level briefly achieved in late september which makes me think that silver and gold will retest their respective lows and perhaps dive even lower during this coming downturn.
ReplyDeletehttp://img844.imageshack.us/img844/3649/streamingserver0687249.gif
Thanks, that is interesting. It does appear that the ratio can push higher, but I'm not sure that necessarily means that Gold and Silver must decline. Remember, my theory is that Gold should outperform Silver to start. Once that blue trendline breaks, the ratio falls and then Silver goes parabolic.
ReplyDeleteSC, yes it is possible for the ratio to go up and both metals go up but unless you are looking for gold move several hundred $'s up in a few days period i say we drop one more time.
ReplyDeletep.s. The most recent flag pole height is 15, the fear trade in aug gave us only 7.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI see an ABC decline from the top in GLD as complete. We should move higher from here
ReplyDeleteThey will have to ramp futures to get this up to 1290 for final push,market losing energy
ReplyDeleteZigZag
ReplyDeletemy god the first chart you posted is INSANELY bullish (http://tinyurl.com/8yjk4em)
that looks like spy 1500????
At the very least we'll be above the May 2011 peak by October.
ReplyDeleteNDX holding well this morning, not likely the start of a decline yet. It can still grind higher to near that 1289 area. Next week should be weaker.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year All! Just returned from Colorado, family ski trip that was well deserved!
ReplyDeleteThe more I look at SI, the more I like what I see...sticking with AGQ.
Here is a fractal compare - the two grey are 1.618 time & price.
http://screencast.com/t/rtwFRG90gmO
If we stay congruent, it appears we consolidate for a few days, setting up a deep 2. The 10th (red fib) is 100% time match from the top fractal. A TL backtest would be expected.
http://screencast.com/t/gOPngrHIcYl2
Longer term chart refined: http://screencast.com/t/xFosRYf575
Will be interesting to see if PM's & equities finally diverge....
Happy New Year to you as well ABQ!
ReplyDeleteSilver is looking great. It might test $30 this week yet, and then more likely to dip next week.
Oh oh SC breaking down although ndx and sox strong can they pull dow and rut up,market wobbling on last legs
ReplyDeleteI think it will manage to grind it's way back up today/tomorrow, but yes it is toppy.
ReplyDeleteSPX is at the same level as early Dec, and still hasn't tested the Oct high in over 2 months.
Any thing coming from USD/EUR. Todays correction is pretty steep !!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGold up with US $ higher. That's different.
ReplyDeleteWave a down on GLD was 27 points, as was wave c.
I usually wait for confirmation, but I started my 1/2 position in shorting this market just a few minutes ago. I like to wait until there is confirmation on a move, ...but I may be a day or so early. Bought 1/2 positions in TZA at 25.83 and TVIX at 27.24. The MACD is on the verge for crossing to the upside on both of those, but still like to see this happen before I buy the other half of these positions.
ReplyDeleteI don't post here often, but thought I would this trade. I do see the market as topping out now, but didn't see the point of shorting until the year end rally and new year's optimism.
Let's make some money for this old fart.
Theendsend, zoom out a bit.. since gold's sept 5th top dollar index moved up 5 points and gold bullion lost 400$/oz, no decoupling yet. Dollar up/metals down.
ReplyDeletehttp://img857.imageshack.us/img857/907/streamingserver7948326.gif
dollar seems to be spiking above march - june 2008 resistance line.. interesting. August 8 2008 was when we broke out above this line back then, marked the beginning of the down turn.
ReplyDelete1inbluemone,
ReplyDeleteI entirely agree with you, but since the begining of the week, there is something new : the change is gold price is greater that the change in dollar index (eventhough there is still a negative correlation between $ index and gold)
All I'm saying is that TODAY, Gold is up while the US$ is Up and up alot. A week ago, that was not happening.Gold could be starting to be looked upon as a safe haven again.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletewhen do you see the sell off happen in your cycle work, end of this week or next?
Thanks!
Theendsend, i see that sometime on small timeframes but then they usually catch up.
ReplyDeleteAll I am looking for now is a higher high a few points higher than Tuesday's 1285. 1289 or so - not much higher. We're into the final ticks of the top. Top out today/tomorrow and then selloff into mid next week.
ReplyDeleteI have a plan and charts coming to show how things can unfold this month.
@ 1inbluemoon, Every walk begins with a first step. I am long GLD and take comfort in the fact that the Euro is down 1.22% vrs the US$ and Gold is up. I see GLD getting to 166 in the ST. Today's action helps support that thought.
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeleteThink its time to go down
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteTom... stop being a troll and kindly F&*&^ off... go read other blogs.. no need for your unwanted presence here.
ReplyDeleteGood one Sami, And we highly respect SC analysis here so Tom if you do not like what you see then you should move on!
ReplyDelete