1340 is an interesting number.
The May 2011 high was 1370, and SPX fell to the Oct low at 1074. That is a 296 point drop. 1340 SPX minus 296 points equals 1044 SPX.
The calculated target for a major decline remains at 1044 SPX.
30min Chart
2day Chart
The market is in a frenzied state. The pullback scenario looked ok this morning, but it just simply did not play out. Finally, this looks like the right setup. It's been a challenge to line this up correctly.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm going to have to cover shorts and re-position. I'm just glad I realized this now.
Additional charts will be coming.
Hi SC,
ReplyDeleteAre you expecting any pullback tomorrow or before the 30th, basically a good point to cover our shorts?
Thanks for all the time you put into your charts and analysis. I, for one, appreciate it.
When analysis is wrong and dates and targets pass you by just REVISE them... eventually market will correct and you will be "right". Finally, this looks like the "right" setup, until its wrong (again). Let me guess those APPL earnings and green futures helped you "revise" target higher.
ReplyDeleteAs for me I am short as of the close today via ERY, TYP, and TZA. Good Luck.
This morning looks weak in my cycle analysis. I don't think we'll see much lower though, and I'll be covering shorts. My S&P shorts have a small profit right now, TVIX will be a small loss.
ReplyDeleteI probably will go long S&P.
It's just a matter of waiting for the right setup for a large play. My bigger picture has always been the same.
Covered all my shorts, and unloaded TVIX. Maybe this is a little earlier than optimal as the market could dip more this morning, but I'm not taking chances.
ReplyDeleteThe TVIX in particular is concerning because if the mkt does form a blow off top next as I suspect, then TVIX could drop to $14-15 area.
Went long S&P at 1309 with a starter position.
ReplyDeletelooks like its time to buy tvix ... fade
ReplyDeleteso you have been preaching a crash for months and now your long... hilarious. As you know most large corrections happen very fast without warning, a shame you will miss it trying to squeeze last drops out of this bogus rally
ReplyDeleteaapl blow out earnings marked the top ... you did not see it. Put a fork in your forks
ReplyDeleteWell we will soon find out. I'm satisfied this chart is correct.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised if SPX did slightly undercut yesterday's 1306 low. It could gyrate around the Fed, but I do expect it resolves to the upside.
ReplyDeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteDo you still think that silver will touch around 30 and will go up parabolic?
Silver and Gold are still not detached from S & P....
Thanks
Careful with Silver because it could run up with S&P short term. I don't have a position on it currently. It has found some resistance in the spot shown on the chart, but I would rather sit back and watch for now.
ReplyDelete23rd and 24th' market actions seem to point to a topping process in the making. Today 25th market actions will decidedly unmask that covert topping process. I think to a large extent, the FOMC will be the trigger, and I think logic tells us it cannot be good. I am looking for a drop from 23 Jan to 10 Feb.
ReplyDeletegotta love silver! the top of this channel is around 36.4 bear killing spree in progess.
ReplyDeleteThe Feds moving markets again..
ReplyDeleteWho cares who/what moves the market? as long as your system allows to be positioned on the correct side of things. SC's seems to be struggling with both timing and direction.
ReplyDeleteThe struggle has arisen from a short term bullish blow off market, with a much larger bearish play developing. It's been tricky to get the optimal short entry for the bigger play just right.
ReplyDeleteI like how things are moving now.
There should be resistance at 1326, pullback to 1317, or a touch lower. Up more from there.
ReplyDeleteThis will likely be the typical pattern. Up every day for probably 4 days in a row with small pullbacks.
For the next 4 days basically see a choppy ride up to 1340 then? Pull back after that to what? and then another peak around Feb 8?
DeleteI will likely take profit on my longs if we see SPX 1326. Then, a pullback to 1314-16. Will go long again there.
DeleteYes choppy rise to 1340. I'm going to look closer at the plan for what/when comes next after that. Stay tuned.
Jobs data may support a continuation of the rally tomorrow SC, although market is overbought.
DeleteSilver is hitting the pink line I mentioned a few days ago:
ReplyDeleteSLV stopped at the area shown and is hitting some resistance there. However, because everything has been stronger today I do wonder if SLV could reach that pink line just over $32. That may be a better estimate of where it reverses.
Took profit and went short 1328.
ReplyDeleteSC, that pink line, is just .. a line. Silver is shooting for down trending resistance at ~36 on the futures.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Silver is heading higher, but I do think it'll pullback from that line short term.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the fear trade in gold/silver you were speaking of is not here. They are simply tracking the dollar and the markets, both are dragged by inflationary expectations along with the equities higher.
ReplyDeleteThat is true. I knew Silver would rise from my pattern, but was mistaken about the fear trade being the reasoning.
ReplyDeletedollar index is breaking down, we are at the same point on the index as a year ago. It looks like it is heading to the trending up resistance at 75 if 78 is taken out.
ReplyDeletewe all remember what happened with the metals and equities going into the spring last year.
SC where's your crash?
ReplyDeleteIt's coming Beetle. Same plan. I realized the bears had to face one final squeeze to 1340 before it happens.
ReplyDeleteyou realized you have been wrong whole time with countless crash calls for past 2 months.. so you pushed it out farther.
ReplyDeleteDecember crash oops I mean January crash... ummm February crash at 1340ish ... no wait make that March at 1377 I mean it this time really !!!
mick
DeleteYour point is well taken! jon
Yes, but so what. If I had told you that the mkt would crash in July 2008, or in June 2011, 2 months before it happened would that really be such a bad call?
ReplyDeleteI'm still not a buyer here...
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/86a6g24
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Deleteso short term top early feb, drop mid feb, cycle high march. right? Do you see a major correction?
DeleteThis chart is showing equal distances in time from key highs and lows that have aligned to where we are now..We're at a point in time where things could possibly reverse course for a bit. Other indicators I follow are overbought as well.
DeleteAnything is possible, and we could keep going until early February, but I won't be buying it here just yet. We should see a healthy sell off before the next up move to the mid March cycle. I don't see a major correction this year.
DeleteZigzag, so far you are all right, May I ask why you are so confident there is no major correction this year with bad news around?
DeleteThe patterns and cycles that I use are pointing higher, and this year should be positive. Election year and tons of money in bonds suggest it will move into equities soon. Things are overbought now, plus we hit the mid January cycle peak, so I'm waiting for new low cycle to form before buying again.
DeleteSC
ReplyDeleteNo offense but your statements, after catching up with your posts from November are off base! They make no sense! I can see Zig is the voice of reason here! Making any excuses for not being even close is crazy! jon
no one has a crystal ball however it isok to revise your targets. particularly now that SC is posting his trades, this morning he covered and went long, then sold. lets see this play out some. i think he has coveyed such confidence and thus is due some criticism, but larger picture if the s&p drops to 1044,it wont matter if you shorted at 1240 or 1340. Now, i think SC can do a better job of concurrently showing the larger picture cycle followed by shorter cycles, but he has made an effort to do so and the full disclosure of his trades before he makes them should make a difference going forward.
ReplyDeleteI agree. A major part of market participation is being able to reverse(cover) your position.
DeleteI probably sounded like I was taking a pot shot at SC, I wasn't. It was a legitimate question.
HOWEVER, when you put yourself out there for all to see, you have to be able to take some heat and I am sure that SC is up to it.