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Monday, January 9, 2012

Silver - Nice Symmetry

Let's see how Silver reacts to the pink trendline.  The line has been tested hard for a while now.  It may have enough strength to break above.  Even if it breaks above though, it might just settle again and cool off with some retracement short term.

Check out how the geometry has lined up perfectly on my cycle line as shown with the green arrow.  I use the cycle line in my symmetry work.  It is a good confirmation that the symmetry is correct, and also that the bottom is in.

2hour Chart
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36 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 9, 2012 at 8:25 PM

    Actually, Alcoa had a positive outlook for world demand, which falls in line for higher prices in the markets. This could be what takes us over the 1300 level.

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  2. ILUVPMSJanuary 9, 2012 at 9:04 PM

    are you still expecting 18 dollar silver.... seems silver bottomed and 141 is the target according to rambus1

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  3. campagnoloJanuary 9, 2012 at 11:29 PM

    ILUVPMS: I think this guy Maud is calling silver going to 17 if we see a really ugly deflationary scenario, the guy has been more wrong than right, however he was very right on last September call. Now, do you have a link on this Rambus target?, what time frame is he calling this?, thanks

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  4. AnonymousJanuary 10, 2012 at 12:11 AM

    Indeed, it's really nice. Impressive !

    According to my model, a close below $28.50 seems quite possible at the end of the week.
    Silver needs to consolidate a little bit before its leg up !

    Let's see

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  5. TimerJanuary 10, 2012 at 5:34 AM

    Raj's Timing model has 11/1/12 as a cycle date. I think it should be a high and will next turn down into the 23/1/12 cycle date. The pressing question is how large is the down force between 11/1/12 and 23/1/12?

    The Jupiter back pass energy is currently propping up the markets since Oct 11. I expect its effect will wane off completely after 7/3/12.

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X-jz0we33fY/TwUNpTjk3lI/AAAAAAAAKdk/wuMmrX0IpC8/s1600/master+Cycle+2.gif

    http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

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  6. ILUVPMSJanuary 10, 2012 at 6:08 AM

    http://rambus1.com/?p=1122 here you go

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  7. ILUVPMSJanuary 10, 2012 at 6:10 AM

    campagnolo: i also read a blog here by the author who stated 18 in 2012 for silver as well. Just want to know if he is still thinking that.

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  8. SCJanuary 10, 2012 at 6:34 AM

    Yes, still the same. Silver target at $37, and I see that being a top prior to a large decline. Charts will be coming to show that decline and details. For now, there is good upside so that is where I have been focused.

    I have a large picture pattern that has been working well for Silver.

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  9. Financial AnalysisJanuary 10, 2012 at 8:21 AM

    SC.. Greece is down by 1.75% today, its at almost new low, could we see something coming out of Greece Soon??

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  10. fartninja33January 10, 2012 at 8:38 AM

    Bought the last 1/4 position in both TVIX and TZA this morning. Both positions are now just over $25 so I am about $3 underwater in TVIX and a buck and a half for TZA. Taking the grandkids on a holiday for a couple of weeks and don't want to be checking the markets then. We are close to a top in the marklets, but still no confirmation yet. Patience is needed for the larger moves.

    I am reading some of your posts on here and it seems many can not actually make decisions on their own and only trade what SC says and then panic if it doesn't turn out or take longer to materialize. If people are getting worried because they shorted around 1280 (S&P) and yet expecting a large decline of about 200 points, the last small move to the topping process should not be causing you that much of a concern. Lots of resistance just above here and don't see the markets breaking through it.

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  11. AnonymousJanuary 10, 2012 at 10:43 AM

    SC, $ 30 level has been reached. Do you see some retracements from now ?

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  12. SCJanuary 10, 2012 at 11:01 AM

    A minimal amount of upside for Silver could still be possible here, but then I do think it cools off and retraces to slide down or backtest the pink line.

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  13. ABQJanuary 10, 2012 at 3:32 PM

    Still hanging with AGQ here, anticipating further upside, after a small pullback:
    http://screencast.com/t/VSusJ1mDnLc
    http://screencast.com/t/l0tnzMdxEyzQ

    ZSL has minor + histo div, but under 0 line, expect further weekness. http://screencast.com/t/PVYiWINuXU

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  14. SS76January 10, 2012 at 4:02 PM

    ninja, u r right,trying to get the best entry possible and no one has a crystal ball. i thinkwe have a double top (rather than an inverse head and shoulders)based on yesterday's vix performance and the fact that the vix is trading like it did in july.

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  15. ABQJanuary 10, 2012 at 4:34 PM

    I have been legging back in to TVIX as well, Ninja...here is my take: http://screencast.com/t/8sH2ybju

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  16. RachelJanuary 10, 2012 at 6:03 PM

    TVIX can be a widow maker. One needs a huge stomach for risk to be able to handle this ETF. From 110 in Oct to less than 23 in jan. But I am sticking with it too. When this guy moves, it moves big!! 30+ % in 2 consecutive days is no surprise.

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  17. SCJanuary 11, 2012 at 7:42 AM

    In the cycle analysis today and tomorrow morning look weak, Friday looks strong.

    There is support at 1287 as shown on the chart. 1279 is another spot to watch. Tomorrow morning could be a candidate for a low.

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  18. ABQJanuary 11, 2012 at 7:58 AM

    Financials continue to hold up, timing wise they look to top ~13th.
    XLE coming off on schedule: http://screencast.com/t/xlZTJgUDo

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  19. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

    FAZ is at all time lows and falling, no signs of crisis. lol

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  20. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM

    Interesting situation we got at the moment, metals/market and dollar all are up? which one is it going to be ?

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  21. ABQJanuary 11, 2012 at 11:47 AM

    Yes, financials looking bullish here.

    http://screencast.com/t/M8XGceom

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  22. ZigZagJanuary 11, 2012 at 7:43 PM

    Next week is my mid January cycle peak. The dip after that should be bought as we head up towards my mid March cycle and beyond.

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  23. TheendsendJanuary 12, 2012 at 6:40 AM

    I have been watching for a while now and I gotta tell ya. The work leaves something to be desired. The call was for a 20% decline and we are hitting multi month highs. and when you call a ST top in the metals, they just keep on going. Everyone,from time to time, is wrong and it would be good for one to own there bad calls and move on. Good luck in your trading.

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  24. ckoreyJanuary 12, 2012 at 6:59 AM

    1301-1310 holds it back into next week............if the dip is weak then we will see 1400-1450 by April.

    Where's the crash?

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  25. SCJanuary 12, 2012 at 7:03 AM

    The call for a 20% decline was made at 1267. We're not much higher. I think I have been clear that my timing was early.

    I didn't call a ST top in metals.

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    Replies
    1. TheendsendJanuary 12, 2012 at 7:16 AM

      These where your words on Silver yesterday.

      "A minimal amount of upside for Silver could still be possible here, but then I do think it cools off and retraces to slide down or backtest the pink line".

      Sounds like a ST top call to me when "a move back to the pink line" is near 28 and SLV was trading above 29 at the time. Whatever

      Delete
    2. MikeJanuary 12, 2012 at 7:59 AM

      We all have to make our own trades. I use SC as a guide to get ideas for possible upcoming trades. I think he's doing the best he can in a broken, and completely rigged market.

      Delete
  26. ckoreyJanuary 12, 2012 at 7:15 AM

    ZigZag..............

    Sounds about right to me as I have 1400-1450 by mar-april.

    ReplyDelete
  27. AMJanuary 12, 2012 at 3:23 PM

    SC, I am looking at your symmetry chart for SLV and the cycle line, if drawn 2 weeks later, would suggest that the test of the lower low is a possibility. Here is what i mean:

    http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/1645/slvsccycleline.png

    What do you think?

    On the side note, FAZ started to show some bullish divergences on smaller time frames, DJIA is showing a slight negative divergence on TSI daily. Oil sold off today nicely, confirming negative divergence on the weekly TSI chart, finally. No sell on Gold and silver yet, both pointing north, for now.

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  28. SCJanuary 12, 2012 at 4:32 PM

    Thanks for drawing that out AM - it is helpful to look at the symmetry different ways. The reason I like the blue line for symmetry is that all of the lines of geometry cross on it. The pink and turquoise lines, and if we move up the orange line to the Oct high then it also crosses right there. So the geometry is confirming the symmetry to either side of the cycle line.

    I spotted something else in the symmetry that looks interesting for Silver. I'll follow up on that soon.

    Rifin still has a lower high from Oct indicating weaker financials versus SPX.

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  29. ABQJanuary 12, 2012 at 4:48 PM

    The DX sure looks spotty. Triple fork resistance (only 2 shown to avoid clutter) & double fib resistance...w/ 4hr TSI neg divergence to boot. Caveat, the pending Euro trash bond auctions could juice the greenback, if the demand is subpar, which I am cool with as well.

    http://screencast.com/t/Mfz2qLGXAX

    If the DX pulls back, PM's will continue to get juiced...and of course I am talking my book :-)

    http://screencast.com/t/CwGpSfT4

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  30. SS76January 12, 2012 at 5:36 PM

    HI SC. Any new SPX charts coming? Here is how you made out from the beginning of the week:

    1. Monday dip and test near 1267. Check (premarket though)

    2. May reach about 1302 Jan 11. Nope, 1295 tops, but not far off.

    3. A dip to 1287 or so next into Jan 12. Check, close.

    4. From there rise to 1310 approx Jan 16. I think you'll see that perhaps tomorrow.

    So all in all, quite good. I think you get into trouble with posters when you use terminology like "crash", and also your timing cycles of which timing is everything to the accuracy rather than price, is clearly off as initally heading into the Dec 27th time period you stated that the SPX heading into Jan 5th was targeting 1040, and even if it was off slightly, you'd expect it to be at least close to 1200 or less, but it wasn't.

    So, in your opinion SC, what is it about the timing of your cycles that is off? I appreciate the work you put into this and of course we should all realize that no one is perfect and we all need to take responsibility for the actions.

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  31. SCJanuary 12, 2012 at 7:44 PM

    SS76,

    Yes, so far SPX plan has been working well this week.

    It's just a matter of meshing the larger pattern which is bearish with the timing for a decline on a daily basis. The cycle analysis did correctly identify Dec 27th as a top with the weakness that followed it. However, it was just a false start in terms of the larger pattern. So we wait patiently for the next setup.

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  32. SS76January 13, 2012 at 4:26 AM

    today was suppose to be very bullish according to your cycle, right SC?

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  33. SCJanuary 13, 2012 at 5:30 AM

    If it consolidates today then Tuesday may be more positive. Monday is a holiday.

    New chart coming.

    ReplyDelete
  34. dj oussJanuary 17, 2012 at 8:07 PM

    Will HZU follow?

    ReplyDelete

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