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Monday, January 23, 2012

$SPX - Correction Due

Today was a turn date in the timing cycles, and a correction is due.  The cycle analysis looks weaker for tomorrow/Wednesday and also around January 30-31st. 

The VIX gapped up, and that was a sign that the rally was about to fizzle.  The VIX bottom on Friday looks solid.  

15min Chart
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21 comments:

  1. Financial AnalysisJanuary 24, 2012 at 6:59 AM

    SC...this video goes with your analysis

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCJanuary 24, 2012 at 7:27 AM

    Thank you, I'm not that bearish, but a large 20% leg down is coming from my work. The worst crisis since 2008 is coming in the next few months imo...

    I have bearish and bullish charts coming this year, and will turn bullish when appropriate.

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  3. SCJanuary 24, 2012 at 8:52 AM

    So the basic plan is a correction into Jan month-end. Then, another pop into Feb 6-8th fits the time cycles.

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  4. The HookJanuary 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

    So is the 20% downleg to start now? Be specific.

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  5. SCJanuary 24, 2012 at 9:46 AM

    Not from right now because I still see corrction followed by a pop into Feb 6-8th and that is likely a slight higher high for SPX. 1326 area. The downleg would start from there.

    I have specifics coming for timing, how long it should take to hit bottom etc...just waiting for this topping process play out.

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  6. TPJanuary 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM

    hi SC,

    so what could be your target for the present correction?
    thx

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  7. SCJanuary 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

    Roughly 1275.

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  8. AnonymousJanuary 24, 2012 at 2:28 PM

    Well were all set up for another up day with the AAPL earnings. But we still have Ben, Obama, and Greece to rain on the parade

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  9. AnonymousJanuary 24, 2012 at 3:19 PM

    SC

    Where is your stop on shorts!? Tx, syd

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  10. SCJanuary 24, 2012 at 3:40 PM

    I've been eyeing the 1326 area. A little more than that might be possible, but not much. I'm going to review my short term charts.

    I plan to add shorts on this pop.

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  11. AnonymousJanuary 24, 2012 at 4:06 PM

    SC

    Are you saying above 1326 is your stop? Just trying to follow and learn some about stops! Tx,syd

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  12. AnonymousJanuary 24, 2012 at 4:08 PM

    Sc

    How do you decide stop placement in general? tx! syd

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  13. ZigZagJanuary 24, 2012 at 4:09 PM

    I still think the momentum high was yesterday from my previous chart. Regardless of AAPL earnings tonight, the overall market should sell off for a bit.

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  14. AnonymousJanuary 24, 2012 at 4:19 PM

    zigzag

    Are you short into your cycle? jon

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    Replies
    1. ZigZagJanuary 24, 2012 at 4:29 PM

      Jon, I started a small short on Friday and sold some of my longs.

      Delete
    2. StevenJanuary 25, 2012 at 5:32 AM

      ZigZag, thanks for your sharing, so your correction just started, may I ask which date this correction will be over?

      Delete
    3. ZigZagJanuary 25, 2012 at 9:05 AM

      Hi Steven, If we can get a close below 1,308 that will likley confirm the January 23rd peak. The next alignment I'm seeing is around Feb 17th for possible low, and then my mid March cycle peak.

      Delete
  15. AnonymousJanuary 24, 2012 at 4:38 PM

    ZigZAG

    Tx for your time! jon

    ReplyDelete
  16. SS76January 24, 2012 at 7:34 PM

    you have to think a nice correction is coming, but this market has been very resilient. Starting to think that it will grind higher and HVU will drift lower, and i use the term "drift" lightly as 2-4% down per day is nothing to sneeze at. I am really hoping for a pullback to 1280 at least, and with a little luck, 1272.

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  17. AfshaikhJanuary 24, 2012 at 8:02 PM

    The fact that the dip got bought once again today, tells me this market wants to go higher this week. (I'm still holding short from Friday)

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    Replies
    1. SS76January 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

      yes, thats how i feel too, but its not really rallying, though tomorrow may change that. hope not. fed hopefully disappoints

      Delete

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