All of this January topping process is setting up for Crash #1 of 2012. The Crash target is 1044 SPX in February. Additional charts will be following to show February timing, but let's finish up with the top first and foremost.
I did mention that 2012 was going to be a wild year!
60min Chart
There is a need to look back to 2008 to see the best perspective on this market. There is strong resistance just overhead.
2day Chart
Thankfully it appears next week is set to be a lot more exciting than last week!
ReplyDeleteLets recap your crash call....
ReplyDelete11/30- Bearish 1044 coming
12/5 - Top Is In target 1044
12/7 - Triple Top
12/15 Crisis is about to erupt
12/20 - "crash december 27 to January 6"
12/27 - Major Decline Next
01/03 - Topping
01/05 Multiple Resistance
01/07 - OOPS TOP IS NOT IN.. lets try February yes thats it February it will crash.
How about "I was wrong" next time
Fair point. Yes, let's review shall we:
ReplyDelete11/30- Bearish 1044 coming
Minimum target met from the bottom called in Nov. Starting to get uncomfortable.
12/5 - Top Is In target 1044
Top was in.
12/7 - Triple Top
Top was still in. Fell 60 points from that 1267 top.
12/15 Crisis is about to erupt
Early, but realize a top is nearing. Becoming bullish on precious metals as a safe haven trade.
12/20 - "crash december 27 to January 6"
My cycle work is suggesting a top Dec 27th, and decline on Dec 28th. I was concerned about that top beacuse my larger patterns are calling for a crash next. It did top on Dec 27th and dropped hard on Dec 28th. However, it was a false start, and the crash call was wrong/early.
12/27 - Major Decline Next
Dropped hard the next day, but still a little early for a crash.
01/03 - Topping
Yes, it is getting close!
01/05 Multiple Resistance
Absolutely true
It is notoriously tough to line up a top prior to a crash. That's the way it is. I may have to redraw the chart a few times to get it right. Would you rather be warned well in advance or surprised when it happens...?
SC I think seasonality delayed what should happen next two weeks.
ReplyDeleteSc, I have a lot of respect for you. Mick, you are fair to point out where SC is wrong but SC, I commend you for admitting where your analysis may have not been "exact" but at the same time, commend you for continuing to adjust based on the circumstances presented. I respect that now you are looking at a higher top but at the same time we are still close to where you are calling it.
ReplyDeleteSo, down on Monday, likely an opportunity to cover your shorts, and up until we hit somewhere over 1300, before a bigger drop. That sounds good to me.
SC, while the next drop is to 1250 which should be next week, do you see 1200 before the end of January, or do you think that that drop below 1200 and 1100 happens both in February over the course of a few days?
SC, I never post on your blog, but I am an avid reader, and first of all would like to thank you for taking your time to provide your analysis free of charge. After looking over some of my charts, I believe we will start decline starting at the end of January and into February. I think someone here mentioned Jan 18th, and indeed this date lines up with my cycle. However, I don't see a crash yet. Please, don't get me wrong, you might be very well right, however, my charts are not yet showing sell signals like I had in August of last year. Thank you again for your work and all other readers contributions. Good luck everyone.
ReplyDeleteDear All,
ReplyDeleteI'm a very rare poster and it's quite a shame I have zero knowledge of cycles. I do respect people who can do this very much though and I believe that this blog is an excellent place to be.
However, I do not see any upside for the market here at all and here is why:
There are two charts I would like you to look at
http://screencast.com/t/pcaUvwymVh2Q
1) Dollar index chart. Pay attention to strong volume bars on the way up. This type of bars (price levels) can not be easily reversed.
So my conclusion - dollar would be up in coming days/weeks
http://screencast.com/t/UwF9HYy9uM
2) 10 year notes. All attempts to ramp up the market and to sell bonds last two days has met huge demand (volume bars are there for you). Like the dollar case - these are very strong signs of further upside. Not to mention that we are currently at october lows level for bonds and pattern suggests triangle upside breakout.
So 1070 is here already based on bonds and currencies. Rubber band is about to snap IMHO.
I have to appoligize for my inperfect english since me native language is Russian :)
2)
Come on guys. Cut SC a break. I believe his big picture analysis is valid, but the time and top are hard to pinpoint exactly. Honestl, if he can pinpoint every turn and top, he won't be here writing FREE blog. He will be somewhere in Europe in his multi million dollar mansion,with maids line up to greet him!
ReplyDeleteIt is not easy to spend your time and effort providing all these analysis, and yet have people constantly putting you down when things don't turn out exactly. If you think SC's analysis is valid, then contribute your 2cents instead being all negative. If you think otherwise, like zigzag whom I respect, then speak your mind with evidence to support. It will beneit everyone who reads the blog.
So Mick here's your chance to give us all your forecast. Easy to be a criic!
ReplyDeleteSS76,
ReplyDeleteThat lower high at near 1303 later in January will likely be more rounded than spiky as I've shown. I think there will be another quiet week in the second half of January much like we saw last week. There should be selling pressure during the last week of January though.
The crash itself should be a steady slide down not over a few days, but rather over a few weeks. Similar to August 2011 except the slope not quite as steep.
SC, thanks for your contributions. Those who expect pin-point accuracy form any TA analysis are perhaps in the wrong business, tops are notoriuos for causing max pain; if they were so easy to pin-point we wouldn't be having this dialogue!!
ReplyDelete