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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

SPY - Powerful Convergence of Timing Cycles October 13/14th

There is a powerful convergence of timing cycles coming due on Oct 13th or 14th.  Three different cycles have been shown, but there are many more examples.   
The expectation is for a severe decline during this time frame.

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87 comments:

  1. ckoreyOctober 11, 2011 at 8:49 PM

    Nice work SC.

    The question is........from where?

    If it's from here or a bit higher to say 1140ish you can see a nice inverse head and shoulders setting up.

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  2. SCOctober 11, 2011 at 9:22 PM

    Thanks.

    Let's see how things unfold as we go. There will be signs as a bottom is approaching.

    The timing cycles show the significance of this period of time, but it is something else entirely that has me thinking it is a severe decline. It's a long story and I don't have an easy way to show it, so for now I'll just leave it at these timing cycles.

    The Aug 9th bottom timing was identified using the same methods so I am confident it'll work.

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  3. The HookOctober 12, 2011 at 6:20 AM

    SC, is the 13/14th a top or a bottom in your model?

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  4. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 6:33 AM

    Because there are so many cycles converging, one of the cycles could be indicating a top. I get the feeling SPX is aiming for 1220 or so to shake out the bears.

    My model definitely shows a decline on that date though.

    I think the Slovakia vote fails later this week again putting the EFSF into question. Mkts tumble hard...

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  5. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 6:41 AM

    From a short term trader's point of view, 1220 is a lot different than 1195. Maybe its better if you just talk about "cycle dates" rather than values since the dates are more important anyways

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  6. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 7:09 AM

    That is true the dates are more important.

    For example back in July when I was looking for weakness into Aug 9th, it wasn't particularly important what price to short 1300, 1320, 1340 etc...because it fell to 1100. The key was to remain short into the right time frame.

    I see the same situation this time as well.

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  7. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 7:14 AM

    SC,

    With all due respect, it all depends on what kind of trader one is. If the focus is on short term trades, it does matter the price you short at. Take for example silver. If I am trading and i watch the price go from $35 to $42, to me the fact that it eventually dropped to $26 means nothing. I think people who come to this site must know first and foremost which type of trading hat they are wearing.

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  8. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 7:33 AM

    I agree completely. A lot of the time I do not show my trades. Instead, I show the chart, and the same chart can be traded many different ways (or not at all) according to the preferences and tolerances of the trader.

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  9. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 7:39 AM

    The FTSE has now taken out the late AUG highs; for myself, that's bullish for an intermediate term time frame. Normally when this type of breakout occurs and the market is overextended, we do get a pullback but given this breakout, I cannot see new lows in the immediate horizon

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  10. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 7:42 AM

    I am bullish on an intermediate time frame, and just bearish short term. The FTSE may not hit new lows, but I think SPX will.

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  11. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 7:50 AM

    On a close only basis, the cash S&P has a gap between the September high close and the month end AUG close (1216.01 vs. 1218.89). Historically, this scenario has represented stiff resistance.

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  12. fartninja33October 12, 2011 at 7:58 AM

    I for one am thankful of the bulls as of late. Nibbled at TZA the last 2 days and just bought a larger position in the lower 38's here today. Sitting under $40 in TZA now. Just look at the last few months how quickly the up moves can be erased by downside moves. The VIX has dropped a bunch the past 7 days. Tells me there are more bulls than people are making out. I believe there has to be one more time of panic before any sustainable rally.

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  13. Anon.October 12, 2011 at 8:18 AM

    Gabe,

    Need some encouragement on this kind of day:
    for your last call of "..... SPY going to 96, by end of Oct.".

    You are an inspiring trader. Thank you.

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  14. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 8:58 AM

    For timelines likely top out tomorrow. Drop hard late this week and early next week. Most of the drop should happen by early next week, then grind slowly lower from there into a bottom.

    I've been working on the bottom date and Oct 21st or 24th is what I'm seeing.

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  15. choppyOctober 12, 2011 at 9:03 AM

    i shorted at yesterday.

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  16. ABQOctober 12, 2011 at 9:04 AM

    http://screencast.com/t/ChYb59sXzE

    50% short, will deploy addt'l shorts @ 1218.57 ES or break of W4. Will gradually cover near marked MACD pickfork zone.

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  17. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 9:21 AM

    I think my initial target of 1044 SPX is probably too high. The reason is a bottom Oct 21st or 24th means my wedge line is lower.

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  18. ckoreyOctober 12, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    SC,

    To be clear you think it goes lower than 1044 by those dates?

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  19. srikanthOctober 12, 2011 at 9:31 AM

    Sc,What's your revised target now,Thanks

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  20. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 9:37 AM

    Yes ckorey, lower than 1044 by Oct 21st or 24th bottom.

    On that date the wedge line is at 1032. That is assuming no undershoot.

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  21. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    It takes very large COJONES to make that statement.

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  22. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 9:42 AM

    SC,

    Do you have any shorts on or are you waiting for tomorrow?

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  23. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 9:43 AM

    It's better to put more weight on the bottom timing target Oct 21st than the price estimate. That is a superior strategy imo.

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  24. ckoreyOctober 12, 2011 at 9:49 AM

    SC............thanks.

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  25. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 9:53 AM

    Because I'm looking for a sudden drop, I am not going to mess around with trying to get the top tick. Swing short into Oct 21st or 24th is my plan.

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  26. StockboomOctober 12, 2011 at 10:42 AM

    SC

    i am not getting when you believe market will top? one side you saying market will drop tomorrow and early next week and some times you saying it will top around oct 21/24! can you please be more clear you expect market to top from today or end of next week?

    Thanks

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  27. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 10:46 AM

    Top tomorrow, and severe drop from there. The bottom date I am looking at is Oct 21 or 24.

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  28. DD_IngOctober 12, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    SC - I would be happy with SP 1144 by that date, 1044 (or 1032) would be incredible!!

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  29. ckoreyOctober 12, 2011 at 11:20 AM

    What you need to ask yourself.............. is there something out there that would cause a 190 point drop in 6 trading days?

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  30. curiousmindOctober 12, 2011 at 11:22 AM

    Today is the kind of day that really test the "guts" of the bears. Hang in there my fellow bears and celebrate on Oct 21/24. Cheers to you SC. And Gabe if you are reading, I can't wait to see your SPY 96 play out by the end of Oct.
    It's true if it is going to <1040, it doesn't matter if I short at 1150 or 1200 or today 1220 (if it gets there). I will be a patient short.

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  31. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 11:28 AM

    ...but always maintain an open mind to the other side.

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  32. MuzzOctober 12, 2011 at 12:20 PM

    Hi SC, yes they really squeezed the shorts on this move, but I agree the top is very close here if not in already. I am still short and will add more in this 1215-1220 zone.

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  33. MuzzOctober 12, 2011 at 12:52 PM

    Gents the top maybe in, let's see

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  34. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 1:40 PM

    ckorey,

    what about war with IRAN?

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  35. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 1:46 PM

    Thank you all for the kind words! EMINI DEC INTRA TRADE UPDATE/SPY DAILY TIME

    GOOD TRADING, joed

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/209/spydaily.gif/

    http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/1874/eminiintra.gif

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  36. PKOctober 12, 2011 at 1:50 PM

    Awesome Gabe,

    good to have you back.

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  37. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 1:59 PM

    Pk and all...............

    Hope all is well with everyone and the trend be with you............joed


    “THERE ARE DAYS THAT MAKE YOU MONEY AND DAYS THAT PAY FOR LUNCH, KNOW THE DIFFERENCE OR IT WILL HAUNT YOU”

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  38. DD_IngOctober 12, 2011 at 2:02 PM

    Thanks Gabe - your track record speaks for itself...incredible!!

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  39. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 2:16 PM

    Rock and Roll Gabe, let's get this party started!

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  40. justmy02October 12, 2011 at 2:16 PM

    Welcome back Gabe!

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  41. TheBlueMoonOctober 12, 2011 at 2:28 PM

    Thanks a lot SC for your blog, your vision of the market, and welcome back Gabe!
    You're in sync, even in generosity.

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  42. Anon.October 12, 2011 at 2:45 PM

    Thanks, Gabe

    Welcome back. Your post is already heart-warming.

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  43. curiousmindOctober 12, 2011 at 2:58 PM

    Welcome back Gabe. How can we party without you? By the way, good call SC on the 1220 to get most of the bears out! But not us, growl!! Anyway, do you think the top is in today, it was quite a drop at the end...

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  44. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 3:52 PM

    The cycle is due tomorrow so we'll have to wait until then to see if we have our top in place or not quite. Practically speaking though this rally is out of time.

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  45. MuzzOctober 12, 2011 at 6:04 PM

    Thanks Gabe welcome back you were missed :)

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  46. MuzzOctober 12, 2011 at 6:14 PM

    SC looks like we have topped or are very close to topping as you mentioned. We should start to weaken now and move down to below 1050 on SPX.

    Gabe it looks like your chart is indicating the same that we have topped here.

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  47. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 6:37 PM

    Thanks all.........

    Muzz......

    My master cycle has the high due today.......very seldom do I stop and reverse into a swing but the orderly fashion and time against my upper intra day range today made it easier!

    Good trading! joed

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  48. SS76October 12, 2011 at 6:50 PM

    How would you all suggest playing this drop on the TSX? T.HVU which follows the VIX, or T.HZD which is the Silver Short? Or something else? Rather trade on the TSX since I wouldn't have to deal with exchange rates.....thoughts? By the way, who is Atilla?

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  49. MuzzOctober 12, 2011 at 7:29 PM

    Thanks Gabe, is your target still 960 on SPX by the end of October early November followed by a monster rally?

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  50. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 7:56 PM

    Muzz..........

    My target now has been adjusted and is on the SPY chart I posted! Dec Emini target is 1023.....BUT time will speak at that time and the price target will be obvious! I never called for a "monster" rally after that! Good trading! joed

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  51. SS76October 12, 2011 at 8:03 PM

    Gabe, please post what the obvious price target is and when it is, as that is not obvious to me!

    Any comments on how to play this? I found HSD & HSU on the Toronto exchange, levereged ETFs.

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  52. curiousmindOctober 12, 2011 at 8:59 PM

    SS76,

    I just bought some HSD today and have been picking up HVU along the drop. HVU is like TVIX in the US market, very volatile. It went from a low of $9 in July to a high of $64 last week. If S&P were to drop to 1040, I expect HVU will surpass its previous high.

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  53. ZOctober 12, 2011 at 9:15 PM

    Gabe thanks for commenting again.
    I know SC pointed out before about Atilla's tweet for one final plunge "that would wipe out some hedgehogs." Shorts are in good company right now. Atilla and Gabe's track record speak for themselves. I would never ever ever EVER bet against Atilla. I have no idea how he does it but he is by far best trader I've ever followed. The fact that he tweets this straightforward is a sign he is dead serious.

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  54. MuzzOctober 12, 2011 at 11:10 PM

    Thanks again Gabe, yes sorry it was not you that called for a monster rally my mistake.

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  55. MuzzOctober 13, 2011 at 1:01 AM

    Can someone tell me who this Atilla is is where to read his stuff also what is his tweet so I can follow him. Thanks

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  56. DD_IngOctober 13, 2011 at 4:15 AM

    Agree, Atilla has an impressive track record - I have been following him for several years now. When he makes a firm call (which is not often) you better listen. Gabe and SC are right there at the top of the list also!! Thanks guys!!

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  57. SCOctober 13, 2011 at 6:40 AM

    Muzz, his site was shut down, @xtrends is the twitter, but I do not know if he will accept. He rarely tweets, often weeks or even months. I'll let you know when there is something significant.

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  58. BlakeOctober 13, 2011 at 6:44 AM

    SC- Why did they shut down Xtrends, do you know?

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  59. SCOctober 13, 2011 at 6:53 AM

    I don't know for certain, but a while back he had said that when the mkts deteriorate he will shut it down.

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  60. SqrootOctober 13, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    Xtrends shutdown well over a year ago. Saul ran it for a while and lots of people lost lots of money. You can probably find comments on the web of people losing over 50%.
    Atilla made some great calls, but on a day to day basis he wasn't that great. He would get 100 ES points underwater, or so he claimed.
    He called the decline in 07 and the bottom in 09, but he was short a lot of the time in 09-10.

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  61. StockboomOctober 13, 2011 at 7:23 AM

    Gabe welcome back! people did miss you so does SC. ok any word on gold and silver? do you see this contend to continue till Oct 13?
    Thanks

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  62. PKOctober 13, 2011 at 7:28 AM

    Gabe and SC,

    both of you gentlemen are calling for a sharp decline into the OCT 21/24 time frame. Is there a level or a deviation from time (I.E. next week we find ourselves at new highs) that will make both/either one of you change your forecast?

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  63. SCOctober 13, 2011 at 7:35 AM

    I think Gold and Silver drop initially with the mkts, but then rise sharply after that. Silver could trade under $30 and rise to $36-37.

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  64. Anon.October 13, 2011 at 7:42 AM

    Gabe

    Does your 3 min ES chart, give any clue regarding:
    upper limit on any bounce this morning, or for whole day ?

    Thank you, and
    Welcome back !

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  65. SCOctober 13, 2011 at 7:46 AM

    All signs looking good from my point of view. My cycle work looks extremely negative starting today and into Tues Oct 18th.

    So in terms of timing limitations I will want to see a sharp decline during this period.

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  66. PKOctober 13, 2011 at 8:47 AM

    why is the NDX so strong?

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  67. MuzzOctober 13, 2011 at 8:53 AM

    Thanks SC

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  68. SCOctober 13, 2011 at 8:54 AM

    NDX is holding up better today, but was weaker yesterday. That may indicate a short term bounce as it indicated a selloff yesterday.

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  69. ckoreyOctober 13, 2011 at 11:18 AM

    One more pop?

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  70. ZigZagOctober 13, 2011 at 11:31 AM

    We've been tracking 1966 for over a year now, with major cycle low last week. Cycle low can also be measured from the 1998 low, which also measured to last week. I had a momentum low on Aug 9th and even though we dipped a bit below, it's still was a good time for longer term holds..

    I am a buyer on dips..

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  71. PKOctober 13, 2011 at 11:40 AM

    If I recall, SC had stated that today was perceived to be the cycle high so maybe that's why the indexes are holding with the NDX possibly making a run by day's end to a new reaction high. That would complete the picture for a more serious decline tomorrow. Just speculating!

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  72. AnonymousOctober 13, 2011 at 2:02 PM

    from Carl Futia's blog, he sees top in second half of october with decline into November possibly sub 1000. i wonder if we are a bit early ...

    http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/4383/111013cht29535459.jpg

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  73. Anon.October 13, 2011 at 2:25 PM

    Gabe, SC

    Any updates.

    or we are on our way to a BIG S&P decline starting tomorrow.
    (possibly, starting tonite via ES Dec futures.)

    Thanks in advance.
    I'd say that today's S&P action did not seem that bearish in the afternoon.


    SC
    You are expecting a sudden drop (in S&P) - still.

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  74. SCOctober 13, 2011 at 2:38 PM

    I have an update coming later with an interesting cycle chart. Just a waiting game now...

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  75. Anon.October 13, 2011 at 2:44 PM

    SC

    Thanks, and we all appreciate your tremendous hard work and insight into the Cycles.

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  76. ckoreyOctober 13, 2011 at 3:19 PM

    I think we have one more pop towards that 1220 level..............then sell off.

    How much is an open question.

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  77. PKOctober 13, 2011 at 3:33 PM

    Unless tomorrow is down hard (and i mean 40-50 handles on the S&P), the bulls will in my opinion have gained the upper hand for quite possibly something more than just a short term rally.On the other hand, I don't think the bears hopes should be dashed either; since stocks started to advance at the beginning of the month, bonds have moved in the exact opposite direction. Today on the other hand, bonds had a pretty reasonable advance in spite of stocks coming back. Tomorrow is key.

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  78. ckoreyOctober 13, 2011 at 3:39 PM

    PK..............

    Agree. I think we test 1220 again tomorrow and maybe poke a bit higher or come up a bit shy. We then sell off into the close.

    Correction into early next week but as to how much............who knows?

    The 1140-1160 range looks about right. It may be a shallow as 1185ish.

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  79. PKOctober 13, 2011 at 4:11 PM

    On a slightly different note, if stocks do sell off hard here and they take down the mining stocks with them, I believe this sector will be a terrific buy for very impressive gains. Of course this is from an investment/positioning standpoint and not just for a trade.

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  80. m 8 zOctober 13, 2011 at 4:23 PM

    coupling Gabe and SC + shooting star then hanging man candlestick formation smells like bull steak on the menu

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  81. m 8 zOctober 13, 2011 at 4:29 PM

    I forgot to add
    Thank you SC & Gabe

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  82. SS76October 13, 2011 at 5:37 PM

    Today looked quite bullish the way the SPX bounced back. Kind of regretting my morning purchase and nervous about what tomorrow brings. Sure hope its down right from the open! Lots of negative news coming out of Europe with the talk of a 60% haircut on greek bonds needed, which would in turn damage the banks.....along with tomorrows retail sales report which will probably dictate what happens. I'm thinking that the retail sales for September will not be good, the markets likely spooked a lot of people from spending too much.

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  83. phantomOctober 13, 2011 at 5:43 PM

    sc, could options expiry next week influence your cycles. also your earlier posts mentioned that the latter half of oct were bullish to u. thanks

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  84. SS76October 13, 2011 at 6:27 PM

    lots of bad news out after the close. Spain downgraded, 13 banks downgraded, 4 spanish banks rescued.....perhaps we will have a big down day tomorrow.

    Whats next, France downgraded? That could be the big news we need.

    I have some hope, lol. Hoping my HVU purchase gets back to $34.90 that I paid for it today!

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  85. ZigZagOctober 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

    Bad news after the close about Europe and /ES has barely budged. The 1998 and 1966 cycles are telling me you want to buy the dips...Any sell off will be short lived and they will buy.

    I was bearish on my July 22nd cycle peak and I'm now bullish. New highs coming in a few months..

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  86. SS76October 13, 2011 at 6:58 PM

    I'm just concerned very short term....I'm ok with a short lived sell off, just want it to be a nice steep one over the next few days.

    I had expected a bigger drop in commodities however not looking like it so far.

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  87. mariyamkhanSeptember 22, 2021 at 9:12 PM

    Have you ever thought about publishing an e-book or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog based upon on the same topics you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my readers would appreciate your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e-mail. great post to read

    ReplyDelete

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