In terms of timing, around Oct 31st to Nov 1st looks bearish in cycles, but starting around Nov 3rd looks surprisingly bullish from my work. Looking at the symmetry at point 6 (yellow) a dip down occurs after the top (from Right to Left). I think it may occur similarly this time as well.
Next week looks very volatile, and it is going to be important in terms of confirmation in my cycle theory.
60min Chart
Silver hit the orange line target today. Price and timing targets both were very accurate on this chart (link below). Upside looks minimal from here, and a quick dip to $30 or so looks possible into next week.
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver-collapse-resumes-2012-target-650.html
2hour Chart
SC, Metals are responding to dollar weakness, inflationary expectations are back. If markets look somewhat positive in your work going forward then us buck may slide down under 74, breaking the important support, that should fuel risk on trade big time.. I dont see how collapse in metals can continue in this scenario. Metals are going to be strong if buck resumes its downtrend.
ReplyDeleteI don't think mkts look positive. I think we are just seeing choppy trading.
ReplyDeleteWill do, also working on more detailed charts for Silver.
ReplyDeleteSo basically the plan for SPX is dip down around Nov 1, and spike up around Nov 3.
ReplyDeleteSC, whats your take on US dollar? short/long term.
ReplyDeletethanks.
I'll show some charts on the dollar.
ReplyDeleteAnything is possible but 1187 by Tuesday seems like a lot to ask for given how well the market is working the overbought conditions; if anything it appears to be consolidating for another push. Maybe the weekend will sober up some of the bulls that have been intoxicated this week and bring about some early Monday selling.
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily all of it happens by Tues, but bottom in the Nov 1 to at latest Nov 3. Then a surge up at that time.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Time - did you notice that time has accelerated in the markets .. and perhaps in personal life? Big changes happen so quickly, we cover moves in less than one month that used to take 3-4-6 months to cover. 200-300 points in any direction in 1-2 months is very possible..
ReplyDeleteYes, agree completely. Volatility is increasing, and will continue to do so as economics become increasingly unstable. The next couple years should be the most volatile in history...
ReplyDeleteCalling for another extreme move here?
ReplyDelete1187? 100 spx points in two days?
Have we not seen this movie?
It's the advancement of technology. Information travels so much faster. When I first started out in the business, I used to stand next to AP Newswire at the brokerage office to get any economic releases. Hell, I remember when the great bull market of 1982 began volume on the NYSE ran up to 100 million shares and the tape was delayed for several minutes. Times have changed dramatically
ReplyDeleteThat is true, look at the 2010 flash crash. It was untradable except by certain automated computers. It was just incredible how fast that tape moved. No there was no error - just a fast market.
ReplyDeleteckorey - I wouldn't call 100 extreme any more. We did this regularly all Aug/Sept in a few days. It's the "new normal" lol.
ReplyDeleteWe got major gaps on the dow dailys and they all get filled ....
ReplyDeleteSo yes we will eventually fill those gaps.. thats 100% guaranteed.
Never in the history of the markets we've had such a huge gaps on the dow dailys that weren't filled eventually .. usually within a 1 -3 weeks
SC, lol! There is some truth to that. Crazy world theses days.
ReplyDeleteHowever last time you made that call I said I have no sell signal on any one of my charts and we are in the same position today. Just FYI
Ok, well let's see how it goes next week. Should be interesting.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteYep. Let's see if 1270ish holds and they move it up again or they move it up again from here.
Silver will hit $50, after the current Silver bear mkt (which started in April), finishes. That won't be for many years.
ReplyDeleteI do see Gold is on the way up, and hitting a slight new high is anticipated.
Sorry, meant to type $30. Do you see a bounce at $30?
ReplyDeleteYes, I think what likely happens with Silver here is it spikes down, and back up to slightly higher than this current level. I plan to show a more detailed look on the weekend.
ReplyDeleteWhat a miserable pattern!
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean?
ReplyDeleteSilver is pretty choppy that is why I typically don't chart or trade the squiggles.
ReplyDeleteIn August, the S&P went from 1260 to 1120 in 3 days, that is 140 points. So if we have this hypothetical scenario this weekend where the Greeks decide to screw the IMF, ECB, and default on all its debt, instead of the stupid 50% debt forgiveness, which really doesn't do them any good. This way, the market will certainly drop fast and furious for 100 points plus before the news is digested on Thursday where SC predicted the spike up, which would be after the crash from Mon to Wed.
ReplyDeleteJust for grins!! Have a nice weekend, everyone.
Importantly, on the SPX chart above notice all the lines intersecting at the blue vertical cycle line. This tells me that I have the geometry - the symmetry is correct.
ReplyDeleteI've made the adjustments necessary now, and I can see clearly why things didn't line up right in Oct. Highly confident now that I have the full picture in place.
SC,
ReplyDeletePlease explain why things didn't line up in Oct. The symmetry looked great until it broke higher than point 6 Of its symmetry which is supposed to be lower than point 7. How can this be explained in term of the symmetry still being valid? If the symmetry holds,point 7 should be lower than point 5, which mean a lower low than Oct 3. But the fact that Point 6 in October is higher than point 7, would it also imply that point 7 will be higher than point 5? Just wondering
I'll be more than happy to see a drop, but others have pointed out that your charts seem inverted in terms of when you are calling for a drop. THat said, if you look at the last 2 candles, we have a hanging man (or also in inverted Hammer) which is quite reliable. So we should have a bearish Monday and perhaps Tuesday at which point would be a good time to cover. 1187? Doubt it, but anything is possible. I think 1230 will be the absolute low before the SPX heads to new highs.
ReplyDeleteEMINI ..............
ReplyDeletehttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/emini.gif/
“LEARN NOT TO TRADE WHEN YOUR PERSONAL BALANCE POINT DOES NOT MATCH THE CHART”
The symmetry is intact. It only is meant to show what comes next in a bigger picture sense. It is not a mirror image, but it is correct. I did get the bottom right in early Oct, and first part of the rally as well. I can see that it was much too early to be bearish in the latter part of Oct. However, it was not wrong, just too early to short.
ReplyDeleteThe final plunge is yet to come. 1075 will not hold. I can say this with certainty.
Unlike last year, Santa is not bringing sugar plums this year, just a lump of coal....will explain better with charts to come.
To be clear as I have said previously this is not 2008 although it will sure feel like it....
ReplyDeleteThese categorical statements such as "final plunge is yet to come" get all the bears riled up and when things don't play out, the crowd gets very angry. As i have said before, your analysis SC is well appreciated and have made some good calls but when you are wrong, you are VERY WRONG and therein lies the problem. Unless you can provide guidance to identify when a scenario is no longer valid (and there is no shame in saying you are wrong)the overall analysis and forecasts will lack merit
ReplyDeleteGabe, from your chart it seems that you are saying we may first drop to 1240, then rally to 1300+ before the cycle turn down again. Can someone chime in on what they see from Gabe's chart? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteSC, what is your sense of timing?
ReplyDeleteFrom the confluence of resistance lines on your SPX chart, it doesn't look like there is much room for further upside (though I suppose a fake-breakout, or a small decline followed by a retest of the highs, remain a possibility).
In the last few months, declines have been rapid once they get started - for example, the July high to the August low only took 2 weeks to drop 250 points; and the late Sept high to the Oct low took barely a week.
Are you expecting a similarly quick decline this time, once the rally finally tops? You'd mentioned a bullish outlook for Nov 3rd and 14th; do you see those as higher peaks in this rally, or as interim peaks in a decline from the current high?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts...
curious...............
ReplyDeleteI am just posting that as a small cycle low date and a cit date not targets, once again targets over power the mind I guess..........BUT I am personally just watching it.......my focus is the next stronger cycle turn and positioning in as close to the turn as possible with a large position! I will be doing that as usual with a set of smaller charts! Good trading! joed
Spudthorp,
ReplyDeleteI am satisfied that a top is already in place, or just a few points. This is apparent because the geometry is near perfect already. Notice the lines crossing at the dark blue vertical cycle line. That geometry is only off by a few points. Let's say up to 5 points approx.
What I am anticipating are 2 large whipsaws with upsurges at Nov 3 +/1 and Nov 14 +/1. Lower highs are favored for those, but yes "fakebreaks" are possible.
There is momentum to this rally obviously so bears need to be patient in waiting for that to fizzle. You'll know it is just about ready when the crowd becomes convinced in a Christmas rally scenario. Once it gets started on the downside it'll be similar to the first week of Aug.
I want to be very clear though a "2008 like move" is not what I am seeing at all. In fact, I am looking forward to going long when the crowd calls for that scenario (which they will). I have done the work already and know which index to play on that bull move. It is going to be really something. No point showing that chart until the right time.
Thank you
Here's one for da bears.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/4yvrolj
Just remember that my 1998 Oct 3rd low cycle came from a long distance out and it's the more powerful cycle. If we continue higher, I don't see this stopping until March..
Thanks Zigzag, nice chart. Mostly I agree with your work, looking out that view is on the right track.
ReplyDeleteDOW................
ReplyDeleteAlso........at the end of this move down and into the next move up into next year ....I see it as choppy up! More like swing trades up .....but in that move there will be both swings up and down with the bias to the up side in a 5 wave move so it will be an organized trading time period.........I do not see it as a stright up move or a buy and hold period! imho Good trading and the best! joed
SC,
ReplyDeleteI'm rooting for you and respect your work very much.
SC what are your longer term targets for the SPX?
ReplyDeleteAs of last week I have begun hedging some of my profits off this rally with FAZ and SPXU and lloking to hold both long term as I think the world will soon begin to wake up to the fact that nothing has been resolved.
Well, my long term target for mkts is miniscule. The economics are steadily deteriorating, despite the cycles of euphoria and wishful thinking. The mkts will reflect the fundamentals with time as they always do.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I will caution that the bull isn't done yet, not even close. These things take time because the long term cycles are measured in decades long.
With etfs one has to be cognizant of the decay, and so the timing becomes rather important. Wait for the cycles to fully mature to think long term. More time required.
Beetlejuice, you just can't hold levered ETFs long term. The decay will wreck their price even if you are ultimately right about the direction of the underlying index. There were plenty of cases in the 2008 bear market of levered inverse ETFs losing value even though their underlyings had cratered during the same period. If you want leverage on a long-term short position, just short and hold. You can get 2x leverage on margin, and as interest rates are low, holding the short won't cost you much. Or use futures, or deep-in-the-money, long-term options. Anything except levered ETFs.
ReplyDeleteTo be clear, the decay comes from daily volatility. In a perfectly trending market, the levered ETFs do fine. It's the daily back and forth - even in the context of an overall trend - that causes their value to decay.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHi sir.
ReplyDeleteDo you have any email.
I think your point 4 isn`t correct..
If you push point for next swing will give you point 6 iqual point 6 in the past.
And that is why your point 6 very diferent point 6 in the past= extension and points.
Can you put email. thanks
Enjoy your sunday.
cyclicalanalyst@gmail.com
ReplyDeleteI understand why you are making that suggestion Carlos, however, I am satisfied that the symmetry is correct as shown. Point 6 is higher and that is ok. These patterns are not mirror images. This is typical - not unusual at all.
When it comes to this type of symmetry, there are skeptics and I understand that. I realize this is an unusual way of looking at things. I developed this technique myself, having used it for many years, and I know it does work. It is more of an art than science. Symmetry is not the tool to use to pinpoint tops or bottoms. It is the tool to see what move is coming next in a bigger picture sense.
The symmetry is clearly showing that this Oct rally, while powerful, was just a false start.
Geometry is what I show with the fork lines. Geometry is a tool which can be very prescise. The geometry is complex and I realize the chart is a little "noisy".
In a simpler sense all we are doing now is backtesting the 200 day MA at 1274 on the daily. In June it hit exactly, and this time overshot slightly. RUT and Rifin have been weakening since Summer, and the NDX rally has been weakening for weeks already. So it is not just my complex patterns. All of the basics indicate downside coming. There really is no case for the bulls on a near term basis.
SC, dollar is spiking up leaving huge gap behind, telling us that it will come back later and head most likely lower.. if this is indeed short-mid term bottom for the buck then stock market downtrend may resume very soon.
ReplyDelete