As far as timing, Oct 6th/7th looks weak. Oct 13th or 14th is the date I have flagged for a possible low.
This may seem to be a bearish outlook, but consider that from mid-October to Nov 14th looks extremely bullish in my cycle work.
Remember, I do not see the recent decline in Gold and Silver as a sign of building deflationary pressure. I see the decline as an unwinding of the safe haven trade. This is very bullish for SPX over a longer term.
3day Chart
The following is a possible route to a bottom for SPX. Important dates and geometry have been incorporated with a "best fit". The dates and prices are estimated. In the current volatile market, it is very difficult to be precise, and modifications may be required. Nevertheless it can be helpful to show a general view. It is always necessary to monitor behaviour of the market and fine tune in real time.
15min Chart
Hi SC thanks for the update, I totally agree on the short term bearish scenario as I do not feel that the downside has finished it's journey as yet. I also agree that we will see a monster rally into the end of the year and early 2012 after this downside is complete.
ReplyDeleteI also have a similar date for the low point of the 10th-13th of October. Lets see how it unfolds.
I added another small short position at 1144, are you short at the moment SC?
Yes Muzz. I don't think the mkt will be able to hold up for long here. Both Financials and small caps look tired.
ReplyDeleteSC just with the comment in your update about " I see the decline as an unwinding of the safe haven trade. This is very bullish for SPX over a longer term"
ReplyDeleteDo you see the SPX after another massive run up to crash down past the March 2009 lows. Then in years down the track the markets becoming bullish again? I just want to clarify when you say bullish SPX over the longer term. It would be great to see a road map of where you see the market heading in the years ahead. Thanks SC
Out of my longs here today. I am hoping one last push down. Bought some TZA for 46.40 just a few minutes ago. Would it be too obvious to try push markets close to 1000 on the S&P?
ReplyDeleteThere would be panick for sure then.
I have my own fear/panick gauge, a friend of mine is a bull and never shorts and I prefer shorting. Usually he declares that he is giving up trading and swears he will never trade again. He says this almost at the bottoms and if I remember it was a couple days before the low of March 2009. He hasn't told me he has given up yet.
The crash will come for sure, and it'll make 2008 look like a picnic. First, we have a long rally. I'll show some of my long run symmetrical patterns. There is no way around it, just a matter of time...
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteWhen is the time zone today that you think the Oct 6 weakness will start seeping in ?
Keep an eye on 12:15 ET. That could be a turning point.
ReplyDeleteThey are really trying to squeeze here.
ReplyDeleteSC, this would take the metals down short term as well? Silver and gold are both near 10MA, which has been a resistance so far in the downtrend..
ReplyDeleteSc may be i dont understand your xomments but can you please clarify that you expecting 2008 style crash before rally or affer?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Rally first.
ReplyDeleteSo you want call this last few days a rally? what is your target for dow and snp?
ReplyDeleteStockboom, I think you've missed SC's point.
ReplyDeleteIn the short term he is bearish. In the intermediate term - from perhaps 1040ish SPX - he expects a long and hard rally. Then AFTER that surprisingly long and strong rally a crash. Presumably the rally he is talking about will be months in duration.
Thanks thorpe for clarification that is what i was confused becoz he mentioned shorting snp today somewhere
ReplyDeleteJust bought some more TZA around $45, so i am in at average under $46. Looks like TZA is trying to make a bottom for today. I am not buying anymore and will let this play out.
ReplyDeleteSC a few days ago you mentioned a bounce of about 40 points or so and we had one close to 80 points. If the bears get a hold of this I would not be surprised to see it overshoot to the downside also a little.
Once again SC for your work and this site.
I'm seeing potential bearish indications until mid-Oct so I will give the bears the upper hand until then. A lot can happen in a week, but the clock is ticking as well. After that things look bullish.
ReplyDeleteThis mkt does seem to take every move to the extreme.
Let's take it one step at a time.
Mkt has held in there today, but I'll show a chart later with bears in good shape.
ReplyDeleteSC, your call for metals to correct much deeper based on the notion that safe heaven trade will be unwinding in the next few months, if i remember correctly. With debt ceiling drama scheduled to continue in December and sovereign debt crisis overseas coming to the surface it feels like this could be just a correction with rally to continue thereafter, kinda like an '08... but not.
ReplyDeleteBulls in charge again. With the markets going higher into the close, why would the markets not rally going into the weekend also. Granted the move has not been as big as the last couple of closes, but still closing at day's highs again.
ReplyDeletewow es closed above 1154.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we go much higher
Either pop and drop tomorrow or a HUGE up day.
ReplyDeletePop and drop looking likely for tomorrow. I'll show why with the chart I am posting next.
ReplyDeleteNew chart is up.
ReplyDelete