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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Gold - Final Spike

Gold may see a final spike up in the near term.  While it is my theory that the safe haven trade is unwinding, I do see a final scare potentially propelling Gold to a slight new high.  After that, it should rapidly collapse.

$1,230 is a 2011 target.  Gold is trading at a substantial premium to Gold Miners (GDX - in yellow), and that gap needs to be filled. 

Silver already experienced a collapse at the end of September.

Daily Chart
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8 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 5:27 AM

    SC, what happens to silver in this timeframe? Run to old resistance at 40.. or higher? is it possible to go after 50 one more time?

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  2. StockboomOctober 12, 2011 at 5:45 AM

    SC your target for spike is almost high posted b y gold earlier so i would think that oil and silver will go higher as well and that will result in snp to spike as well so dont you think your theory is conflicting? also slv has breached 31.50 according to your chart so next would be 34 to 35 area? for sure spike down after hitting 31.50 didnt work as you shown on your chart

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  3. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 6:14 AM

    SB, not necessarily, safe heaven trade may be back for a little while, at least this is my reading of this. Big crisis is whats needed to propel higher gold and silver along with it. Debt debate #2 is coming up, europe bail out, bank reports are around the corner, one of these could be a trigger.

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  4. StockboomOctober 12, 2011 at 6:22 AM

    Bluemoon, i dont agree that big crisis or debt crisis will take gold and silver higher; i think they will tank with market and we experienced that during recent european crisis and if it is opposite then why they going up now when europe is close to put a hold on debt crisis?

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  5. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 6:27 AM

    Silver already had it's large move in Sept and I think now it trades more subdued. $37 or so max. Gold becomes more volatile.

    I think the Slovakia vote will fail later this week putting the EFSF into question.

    Gold rushes up as a safe haven. S&P tumbles. Silver does not trade as cleanly as a safe haven, and could gyrate all over, but finally go up to $36-37.

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  6. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 8:55 AM

    Silver could drop with the mkts initially to $27 and then rise to $37.

    For Gold I'll look for a top Oct 21st or 24th.

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  7. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 10:01 AM

    thanks SC, you just answered my question. i see that you also drew a dip on gold chart, double bottom before spike up?

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  8. SCOctober 12, 2011 at 10:05 AM

    Seems to me Gold could dip a little first then rocket up.

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