Next, I'll show the timing cycles due at the end of this week.
5min Chart
Monday, October 10, 2011
$SPX - Financials and Small Caps Underperforming
SPX closed just above the yellow fork line after bouncing on the line into the close. Since Friday's open Rifin - Financials and RUT - Small Caps have been underperforming. The indication is that the rally is weakening.
Next, I'll show the timing cycles due at the end of this week.
5min Chart
Next, I'll show the timing cycles due at the end of this week.
5min Chart
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IMO, the benefit of doubt still falls with bears. However, if the cash S&P closes up this week, I think that would signal that an important inflection point was achieved last week, in spite of any short term pullbacks.
ReplyDeletewhat is your "line in the sand" SC or have we already exceeded it?
ReplyDeleteI'm ok at this 1195 level. Would not want to see much higher.
ReplyDeletewhat is "much higher"? 1200? 1205?
ReplyDeleteI'm willing to give some breathing room. Most important to me is how the mkt is acting. The same chart above holds true today. The leaders are weakening. Very much doubt it would surpass 1205.
ReplyDeleteSC, back in '08 collapse in commodities preceded big trouble for the main market, im starting to see a major bottom for metals into December if downtrend continues. Am i wrong to assume in this case that the market will have to go towards lower lows as well into winter months?
ReplyDeletesc, are you in short?
ReplyDeleteI see the commodity cycle as having topped in April. It is going down for independant cyclical reasons imo not because of deflationary pressure. So I don't see this being the same case as 2008 at all even though I realize it appears that way on the surface.
ReplyDeleteYes, my plan is to short S&P into the Oct 13th to 17th window.
thanks, sc
ReplyDeleteFinally starting to cool off somewhat. Next, the bears want to see SPX trading under the yellow line currenty at 1184.
ReplyDeleteAnybody follow Atilla? He's on board as well:
ReplyDelete"One more plunge coming... this will very likely be the biggest one since the summer crash, and will wipe out a number of large hedgehogs"
i have heard that he is basically a gunslinger without any trading discipline
ReplyDeleteSC, thanks for the clarification. Does Atilla have a blog?
ReplyDeleteAre you talking about 60-year commodity cycle? These folks had a video about it in the spring/early summer: http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2011/05/12-video-01.php
SC ok you said in your earlier said you expecting market to bottom this friday and .ow you saying you planning to short snp between 13 and 17th october? i am confused can you please clarify? also please clarify your silver expectations thanks
ReplyDeleteI think Sol is more the technical guy, but I'm not really sure how they operate.
ReplyDeleteLet me check that out Bluemoon and see if it is similar to my own work.
I'm expecting a dive into the 13th to 17th of Oct from the current level. The selloff should be intense during that time period from my cycle work.
Mkt is looking seriously fatigued right now.
ReplyDeleteGold and Silver should be very volatile during that time period as well. I'm working on how the PM's should behave during that period, and will have comments for them soon.
Sc that still didnt clarify my question; are you planning to go long after that dip or going short expecting further down
ReplyDeleteOnce I am satisfied that the bottom is close or in, then yes, I will go long. After the mkt bottoms I am expecting a huge sustained rally.
ReplyDeleteSC - have followed Atilla for several years, he has been very accurate in his calls - very impressive track record!!
ReplyDeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteWhere did you read Attilla's comments ? xtrenders site has gone private , it seems.
This was his tweet from yesterday:
ReplyDelete"One more plunge coming... this will very likely be the biggest one since the summer crash, and will wipe out a number of large hedgehogs"
SC, interesting timing: http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/4255/actor08oct1008471881743.jpg
ReplyDeleteCould there be an extra week before negative news?
Added to my TZA with a larger position this morning. Average now sits at low $41's. I said yesterday it might be a little early but will add later this week. Today the 30 min and 60 min have turned to a buy in TZA. Tomorrow or Thursday at the latest the 120 min should turn to a buy. I will be be adding more tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI am addding as we go from yesterday until the anticipated drop later this week. I never try to get the exact top, as I may miss out on the biggest move if you try to do so. I just acumulate close to tops and bottoms.
I am happy to add TZA at low 41's and if markets go a little higher until for a couple more days I can buy more TZA a little cheaper.
Markets looking a little tired here.
SC, whats bothering me is how metals would react to the big plunge #2 if it was to occur again. Gold did something new in past 2 months, as markets tanked - it spiked. Will the trend continue .. or are we at the point of no return?
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteAm i reading your chart correctly................You see 1030 by the 17th?
Thanks.
That is what I am considering for Gold - a spike. Even more interesting is what would come after that. Gold is very interesting, and I'll show the chart for how that may look.
ReplyDeleteThe main point for S&P is that I am expecting a dive to commence on Oct 13-14th with an estimated target of 1044. Which day it bottoms I am not sure.
ckorey,
ReplyDeleteI see you also read pebble writer. It seems that SC's analysis converge with his analysis with very similar date and target. I think it's time to put on some shorts and buckle our seatbelts. The ride is going to be epic.
Curious,
ReplyDeleteYes I do and like him very much.
Keep in mind these are EXTREME forecasts that rarely play out (or at least not in the timeframe they are looking for).
I'm looking more for a move to 1140 or so but am open to anything.
SC, TSI indicators tell me that the trend is up for gold and silver as well.. you may be onto something here. I guess i have to close my shorts..
ReplyDeleteckorey,
ReplyDeleteIt is true that extreme forecasts rarely play out. However, look at August, did anyone see the move from 1300+ to 1100 in less then a month? We are at treacherous time. a 60+ point downside in one day is no longer impossible. I guess we just have to wait and see how things unfold.
Agreed.
ReplyDeleteWatching and waiting for now.
It comes down to if you believe the lows are in for the year at 1075.
nothing bearish about today's price action
ReplyDeleteThe calm before the storm?
ReplyDeleteI suspect a decent dip tomorrow morning. However, there is still the time tomorrow and part of Thursday to inch higher. It'll do it's best to shake out the bears, but as it inches higher I see the clock ticking.
ReplyDeleteThis will be a test of patience, but in the end I am satisfied it will be well worth it.
Minutes after the market close...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/slovakia-rejects-plan-expand-efsf-government-falls
Hope everyone took advantage of the ramp on the RUT minutes earlier!
Up to 1205 i can live with and would qualify as "inching higher" but above that level, I dont think it would qualify as inching higher. I still think if we close the week on a strong note, the best the bears can hope for will be a retracement of the recent gains and nothing more for now.
ReplyDeleteBingo, there is a reason for a drop in the mkts at the end of week. A failed vote in Slovakia could sure rattle the mkts.... The drama begins.
ReplyDelete"There is an assumption that the EFSF, one way or the other, will be approved by the end of the week," Finance Minister Ivan Miklos, who supports the measure, told parliament before the vote.
The leftist Smer party led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico has said it would be receptive — in exchange for major concessions including a cabinet reshuffle or early elections.
The fourth ruling party, Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), said it would abstain from the ballot. It argued that, as one of the poorest members of the single currency club, Slovakia should not pay for the debts racked up by more affluent countries.
"I consider the tying of the bailout ratification vote to a confidence vote in the government as blackmail," SaS leader Richard Sulik said. "These are things that severely damage Slovakia. Slovakia is not responsible for saving the world."
Parliament can submit the ratification to repeated ballots once Radicova has struck a deal with the Smer party.
"We are ready to talk to political parties seeking approval of the EFSF. But let's wait, this government is facing a test now," Fico told reporters.
Voting Breakdown
Radicova said last week she was personally committed to ratify the agreement by Oct. 14 ahead of a meeting of euro zone leaders originally planned for the weekend. That meeting has now been pushed back to Oct. 23."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44854607