$VIX - Red Arrow!

As predicted by the Cycle, VIX has been forming a low around the pink fork line.   

VIX bottomed mid-March and has been making higher lows since that time. In the Cycle, the red arrow low is anticipated to be another higher low for VIX.  VIX has been flirting with longer term trend lines of resistance going back to 2008.

From this red arrow low, a steady rise for VIX into the end of year is shown by the Cycle.  The next high for VIX is due after a several months rise.       

60min Chart

Before: 

Analysis posted October 13th.

"VIX is likely approaching the red arrow low in the Cycle. The red arrow low should form late this month possibly in the 13's."

60 min Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Cycle 1 Approaching Red Arrow

VIX is likely approaching the red arrow low in the Cycle.  The red arrow low should form late this month possibly in the 13's. 

VIX bottomed mid-March and has been making higher lows since that time.  In the Cycle, the red arrow low is anticipated to be another higher low for VIX.

VIX has been flirting with longer term trend lines of resistance going back to 2008.       

60min Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$SPX - Cycle Update

The Cycle for SPX showed the retracement from the yellow arrow.  Even though SPX is bouncing sharply at the moment, it is not clear that the purple arrow Cycle low is in place yet.  Recent lows could potentially be retested.

SPX may find resistance around the pink resistance line once again.

60min Chart

Crash Cycle #1:

UVXY - Mount Everest Cycle First Blue Arrow

Over the summer months, UVXY dropped down and formed the first blue arrow low in the Mount Everest Cycle.  UVXY should retest around that low according to the Cycle as it approaches the second blue arrow.

Since it is a large scale Cycle, it can take time (weeks) to reach the second blue arrow.   

The VIX Cycle is helpful for short term timing.  The VIX Cycle orange arrow high was likely August 30th.     

4hour Chart

Large Scale Mount Everest Cycle:

Silver - Before/After Cycle Update

Silver continues to follow the large scale Cycle with the rise from the turquoise Cycle low.

June:

"Silver is likely bottoming out at the turquoise arrow Cycle low. The rally next for Silver and Gold should be very sharp according to the Cycle. Price goes almost straight up from the turquoise arrow low in the Cycle."  

2day Chart

Before:

2day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:



$VIX - Cycle 1 Orange Arrow

VIX is likely near the orange arrow in the Cycle.  Therefore, VIX should settle and cool in the short term.  In the VIX Cycle 1, the time from the green to orange arrow is approximately equal to the time from the orange to the red arrow.  

At the current pace timing can be estimated.  The red arrow is due to be reached in September as shown on the chart.  Once the red arrow is reached, then the VIX Cycle is mature.

30min Chart 

                 












VIX Cycle 1:           
  

                                                

$SPX - Retracement Update

SPX found resistance around the pink line and retraced from that level.  The Cycle showed the retracement from the yellow arrow.

30min Chart

Crash Cycle #1:

$VIX - Cycle 1

The VIX is at the green arrow in the Cycle.  The market is approaching a level of extreme complacency.      

30min Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$SPX - Retracement from Yellow Arrow

SPX is retracing from the yellow arrow resistance.  Churning and chop was to be expected as shown in the Cycle.  SPX should dip more in coming days during this retracement.

VIX meanwhile is strengthening, and due for a pop soon.

60min Chart

Crash Cycle #1:

$SPX - Crash Approaching - Yellow Arrow

SPX did, in fact, turn down at Point A, decline to test near the red horizontal, and then rally from the red horizontal. All of these events were predicted by the Crash Cycles.

SPX is likely near the yellow arrow in the Cycle.  Retracement is due since SPX is at the pink resistance line.       

60min Chart

Crash Cycle #1:

The Deja Vu Cycle is a larger scale Cycle. The red horizontal line is shown.

$SPX - Crash Approaching Update

SPX did, in fact, turn down at Point A, decline to test near the red horizontal, and then bounce from the red horizontal.  All of these events were predicted by the Crash Cycles.

SPX is likely near the yellow arrow in the Cycle.      

60min Chart

Crash Cycle #1:

The Deja Vu Cycle is a larger scale Cycle.  The red horizontal line is shown.

VIX - Tested 2008 Trendline

VIX has tested the trendline from 2008 recently, and currently is finding support around the 50 period moving average on the Weekly Chart.  VIX has been trending up for 4 months, and a break above the trendline from 2008 can be explosive.

UVXY should be bottoming out shortly according to the meltup Cycle.  UVXY should form a low soon, and then begin to rise slowly at first, and then meltup.  Initial targets for UVXY to consider are around $160 with a target of possibly near $250 late this year.

60min Chart

UVXY meltup Cycle:

Symmetry suggests a large move is due for VIX.  A break above the trendline from 2008 can be explosive. 

Weekly Chart

$SPX - Crash Approaching - Crash Cycle #1

According to Crash Cycle #1, this rally for SPX should continue higher short term into early July. 

Once SPX finishes this current rally, then the Cycle predicts a July crash with few bounces.  The Cycle continues to be negative into the fall months of 2013.

30min Chart

 

 

Crash Cycle #1:

 

Silver - Sharp Rally Next

Silver is likely bottoming out at the turquoise arrow Cycle low.  The rally next for Silver and Gold should be very sharp according to the Cycle.  Price goes almost straight up from the turquoise arrow low in the Cycle.  

Silver is due to act as a safe haven and spike up next.  It's a fear trade while SPX crashes in July.  The Cycle is based on Silver, but Gold may be an especially strong performer.


2day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

$SPX - July Plan - Large Moves Ahead!

The Cycle decline for SPX has only just begun.  It has been a relatively choppy decline to start.  The Cycle predicts choppy spots, and also during some time periods, rapid declines on the way down to Point P.

SPX is approaching near the red horizontal, and there is a decent bounce shown in the Cycle from that level. 

According to the Cycle, expect the market to move much more aggressively going forward.   

60min Chart

According to the large Cycle, SPX is in the process of dropping to test the white trendline from the March 2009 SPX low.

3day Chart

The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot of the upper red line at point A.  Then the Cycle declines to test near the red horizontal with a bounce from the horizontal level.

 

$VIX - Trending Higher

VIX has been trending higher since the middle of March.  As a result the 50-day moving average for VIX is now rising. 

It hasn't broken out yet, and still may be quite choppy going into early July.    

Daily

$SPX - Down Trend from Cycle Point A

SPX overshot the upper red line by time and price practically identical to the Cycle expanding formation.  SPX has declined enough below the red line to confirm Cycle Point A.  As price trends down, numerous bounces are to be expected on the way down to Cycle Point P. 

The Cycle decline has only just begun.  It has been a relatively slow and choppy decline to start.  The Cycle predicts choppy spots, and also during some time periods, rapid declines on the way down to Point P.

60min Chart

The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.

Deja Vu Cycle on a larger scale:

$SPX - Reversal and Expanding Cycle Update

SPX overshot the upper red line by time and price practically identical to the Cycle expanding formation.  Yesterday, there was a significant reversal and SPX is currently testing near the red line.  The key levels to watch in the Cycle are both the red lines, especially the horizontal red line.

SPX is trading in an expanding formation as predicted by the Deja Vu Cycle. In the Cycle, it does overshoot the red line to reach point A. Horizontal support held in April, and the Cycle accounts for that horizontal.

This is the 10th week that VIX has been trending up, and that is a serious warning. The behaviour of VIX is also evidence in support of the large Cycle continuing.  However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may still reach closer to the mid-March bottom.

60min Chart

The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.

 

Deja Vu Cycle on a larger scale:

Silver - Cycle Low with Powerful Spike Up Next

Silver is likely bottoming out at the turquoise arrow Cycle low.  

The bear market in Silver is just over the halfway mark in the Cycle.  Notice that numerous rallies occur throughout the Cycle.

The Cycle shows a powerful spike up next for Silver from the turquoise low.  Silver may act as a safe haven and spike up next - fear trade. 

2day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

$SPX - Point A Target Reached

SPX has overshot the upper red line and reached the target for Point A exactly on time and price.  The behaviour of the rally is identical to the Cycle expanding formation.

SPX is trading in an expanding formation as predicted by the Deja Vu Cycle. In the Cycle, it does overshoot the red line to reach point A. Horizontal support held in April, and the Cycle accounts for that horizontal.

This is the 8th week that VIX has been trending up, and that is a serious warning. The behaviour of VIX is also evidence in support of the large Cycle continuing. However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may decline closer to the mid-March bottom.

60min Chart

Before:  From May 6th analysis:


30min Chart

The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.

Deja Vu Cycle on a larger scale:

 

$SPX - Cycle Expanding Formation Update

SPX touched the upper red line today.

SPX is trading in an expanding formation as predicted by the Deja Vu Cycle. In the Cycle, it does overshoot the red line to reach point A. Horizontal support held in April, and the Cycle accounts for that horizontal.

This is the 8th week that VIX has been trending up, and that is a serious warning.  The behaviour of VIX is also evidence in support of the large Cycle continuing.  However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may decline closer to the mid-March bottom.

30min Chart

The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.

 

Deja Vu Cycle on a larger scale: