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Monday, July 22, 2013

$SPX - Crash Approaching - Yellow Arrow

SPX did, in fact, turn down at Point A, decline to test near the red horizontal, and then rally from the red horizontal. All of these events were predicted by the Crash Cycles.

SPX is likely near the yellow arrow in the Cycle.  Retracement is due since SPX is at the pink resistance line.       

60min Chart
















Crash Cycle #1:



















The Deja Vu Cycle is a larger scale Cycle. The red horizontal line is shown.

















133 comments:

  1. I'm confused. On the second chart spx looks like it makes a slightly higher high after the yellow arrow... On the 3rd chart it looks like the crash starts immediately after testing the red horizontal after point A?

    I dont see a higher high after point A on he 3rd chart.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both Cycles show a strong bounce from the red horizontal. One showed a higher high and one showed a lower high, but both show this rally from 1560 being the final move before the crash.

      Both Cycles are derived from different places. The small scale Cycle is better used for finer detail. The larger scale Cycle is meant for seeing the large scale moves.

      Delete
  2. Also can you pit your green circles on the first chart...is it down to 1650...Up to 1720...down to 1540?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is the right idea. Retrace to around 1650.

      Delete
  3. VIX is warming, looking like it can pop soon. I think SPX may churn around this pink line for a day or two then drop.

    ReplyDelete
  4. UVXY 42!!! They were 47 the other day when I looked....

    What a stack of 'rubbish'

    1700 is the key...if we break above then 1740 here he come!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Good morning SC..and your mini legion of followers.
    ---

    So..the irony is..even the 'crashy' scenario only gets us back to levels from June.
    -

    ..and then no doubt..we rally again.
    -

    For the bears, this is indeed arguably a complete waste of time.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Good morning Perma,

    This is only the first Crash in the large Cycle. Sure, after it crashes, it'll bounce well, and then the next larger crash down to point Z. That is the scary one.

    It is a large scale Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SC, seems like your thesis for gold is not working out. It is not rallying on panic as you expected but just oversold rally. This has implication IMO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The same occurred in July 2011. Gold started to rally first and then the market crashed a little later.

      The move in Gold is just in the early stages.

      Delete
  8. SC, the thing is ..where is the crash? there is no evidence of the crash in progress.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The SPX Cycle is currently positive since I am saying we are at the yellow arrow. There is retracement due soon, a final rally and then crash.

      That is why I say in the title "Crash Approaching". When the crash is imminent the title will say "Crash Imminent.

      The whole of this Cycle is to show how the market rallies as it approaches the tipping point into the crash.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      Wouldnt a title read "New High Approaching" if that is to come before the crash be better? confused.


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. It would not be prudent to toot the bullhorn way up here just before a crash. It was safe to be bullish in June at 1560 according to the Cycle which I posted then.

      It is too dangerous to speculate on a top tick right before a crash.

      Delete
  9. So far I think UVXY was the one that crash. Are you currently overweight in it? LOL!!! You need to learn how to make $$$!!! It's so easy out there. Just buy on every 3-5% dips, and trail your stops. It beats trying to time your shorts.

    ReplyDelete
  10. What are the 'Crash Cycles'…..

    ReplyDelete
  11. Well here I go....buying UVXY with no stop at 42.30.

    Yes I know...goes completely against what I have been saying about stops but 1-3x a year an opportunity presents itself & I am of the opinion that there is perhaps 10-15% downside in the decaying beast & 50% upside.

    This is the 2nd time this year...the first time I made $30,000 so hopefully I will be right this time too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm expecting chop in the $40's and $50's range up and down before anything major. This will give the time for VIX to configure properly for a major move.

      Once the 1540 SPX level breaks, the VIX will really go wild. Only moderate moves until that level breaks. Until then, weeks of just moderate moves and chop for UVXY.

      Delete
    2. Phil - I joined you today in taking the plunge... UVXY position opened at $41.19 after the close... will overweight that position tomorrow just in case prices go lower, which seems to happen more often than not at the moment. Although with VIX at current levels we must be close to bottoming out. I've set the trailing stop at 10% which should be a big enough buffer for now... we'll see what happens and adjust accordingly.

      SC - everything is screaming sell right now so we'll see if this is the week we've all been waiting for... although the experience of the last few weeks has reminded me of the old saying that the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent!

      Delete
  12. Could you please show us where we are in the UVXY cycle with an arrow from the side?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I'll be showing where we are as things progress through the Cycle. Currently in the red candle under the white line.

      Delete
    2. Do you think that we are arrived in the red little line under the candlestick?

      Delete
    3. That means once in the green candlestick UVXY will not go lower than in the red candlestick.

      Is that correct?

      Delete
    4. I would say that there would be little possible once in the green candle. I'm expecting UVXY to slingshot back up soon to $45-$50 and then churn. It is getting stretched here.

      Delete
  13. Sc, funny when you call for SPX bounce its within a day or to but SPX drop/VIX bounces you are usually early 1-2 weeks!

    XIV making new high today by about 20 cents... It could go a little higher yet but I do not like th angle of assent...30 degrees or less...straight up...not good

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, that is because the market goes down fast but rises with a slow grind. SPX only 10 points higher today than a week ago. Even worse, only 10 points higher than 2 months ago for that matter.

      This grind up will just exhaust and collapse this week imo. However, we're just at the yellow arrow. So this will take time to play out.

      Delete
  14. "It is too dangerous to speculate on a top tick right before a crash".

    Its never too dangerous to speculate as long as you have stops, its when you don't have stops that the danger is imminent.

    ReplyDelete
  15. VIX testing April/May support levels. Tremendous strength in the VIX!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your kidding right?

      VIX broke the upward trendline since april and now looking to form double bottom. Didnt think VIX 11's was possible 2wks ago (i believe 13's was your line in the sand also)... Now not so sure

      Will double down on UVXY at any price if/when VIX hits 11's...or perhaps just swap out XIV for UVXY 1:1 getting very close

      Delete
    2. The VIX is still well higher than March. It has been strong for over 4 months.

      There have been 2 levels that I have been watching for VIX:

      SCJune 14, 2013 at 7:24 AM
      "VIX cash heading for 13.xx, and that is when I will load UVXY to the maximum."


      SCMay 17, 2013 at 9:58 AM
      "Ideally 11.50ish VIX would indicate extreme complacency imo."

      Delete
    3. VIX bounced around in the 13's but it is not surprising to see VIX 12 at all. I've been saying for months that 11.50 would be ideal and indicate extreme complacency.

      I think VIX is due to pop short term, but still may see 11.50ish in coming weeks. Then pop to 40+.

      Delete
    4. UVXY down 20% from your 48$ entry ...

      I will be a MEGA buyer at 11. For now sticking with XIV which is up 50% in less than a month! Wow! That sucker will hit 30 in next couple weeks 1:1 xiv:uvxy

      Delete
    5. I'm expecting UVXY to jump starting tomorrow.

      Delete
    6. Yes but only a small jump to 45-50 and bunch of back & forth for while for uvxy.

      If you are correct about UVXY jump tomorrow trigger may be AAPL...bad earnings will get the SPX to 1650 ...on the otherhand a beat by AAPL will leapfrog spx into 1700s

      Delete
    7. Yes 3 weeks of chop coming imo. Tomorrow does stand out for me. Thanks for the Apple info. That could it. I'm seeing a high tomorrow and dip starting soon after.

      Delete
  16. SC, looking at the spx daily I believe a case can be made for this morning being the final push. The magnitude of pushes around the yellow arrow are vague.

    ReplyDelete
  17. It is a severe warning from VIX. VIX is higher than March. That was when the Cyprus issues erupted. VIX has been warning ever since that time!

    The VIX won't be warning for much longer, it'll shoot up like a geyser, "old faithful".

    ReplyDelete
  18. UVXY is at the white line right now. Flirting with a break out.

    ReplyDelete
  19. SPX is currently at the pink line, flirting with breakdown. I still think we are only at the yellow arrow in the Cycle though.

    ReplyDelete
  20. SPX struggling at the pink resistance to hold the 10 point gain from two months ago in May.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tomorrow is a high on a time Cycle I use for SPX. I think SPX drops from tomorrow.

      Delete
    2. Indeed... shaping up to be a breakout rally failure in SPX... looks even more pronounced in the QQQ chart. Failure at the 1670 level on SPX should confirm this rally has ended - it will be interesting to see if we get the bounce at 1650 or continue on to the 1540 support level

      Delete
  21. It should be noted that the anniversary date the market is in, in history collapsed over 20% into August 31st before reversing on September 1st when the market opened down almost 300 points before finding a bottom. Good trading, joed

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very interesting Joe, thank you. I've been saying 6 weeks estimate to hit bottom which lines up almost exactly with that timing...

      Much of the drop, as always, during the last few days.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      Do you still target UVXY around 160 from current level, or would it be lower now that UVXY went lower than your entry price?

      Thanks!

      Delete
  22. Do you still think it is wave 3?

    SCJuly 21, 2013 at 5:37 PMI think the evidence is quite solid for this being the 3rd. There are the 4 reasons above. Aside from those reasons another piece of evidence that I am watching is to see how the market behaves to distinguish between the 3rd and the 5th.The 3rd (yellow arrow in the Cycle) is a "pointy" high whereas the 5th lingers at the top. So if the market drops within a few days of the high, then that supports the 3rd. If it lingers for a week or more then that supports the 5th. I'm quite sure it is the 3rd. We'll have more evidence this week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, the evidence supports wave 3. Expecting retracement to 1650 SPX next.

      Delete
    2. Wanted to ask you if you are expecting new lows in VIX for the wave 5 spx, or more of a divergence with VIX making concurrent higher lows/basing pattern?

      Delete
    3. It could be either, but usually divergence is the case for VIX. I see resistance in the 15's, and it'll take a while to clear that. Expecting some pops and 3 weeks or so of chop next for VIX.

      Delete
  23. I don't get it because:

    - 1) when I look at the UVXY cycle the 3 red candles have a duration of 4-5 weeks. At the right side of the red candles are more than 3 candles before the crash is starting.

    2) crash is still possible within 6 weeks when we are arrived in the first green candle after the 3 red candles. When we look at last week UVXY was rising up and now down so I think we are arrived in the green candle yet. (You have said also the upper bottom in the green one could be a little lower than the red one next to it).

    3) when point 2 is correct and we are in wave 5 over x weeks it means that UVXY will go up and S&P also (divergence)

    What is your comments?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. The particular Cycle for UVXY is not suited for time estimates. There are other methods for that. What is useful is the behaviour - the price action for UVXY.

      2. Other methods suggest 3 weeks estimate for wave 5 in SPX and another 3 weeks estimate to hit bottom of the crash.

      3. In a wave 5 for SPX, UVXY could still see slightly lower in some of those spots in the Cycle. There are dips in there that could a little lower. However, would expect it to hold well relative to SPX during wave 5. Therefore, little downside.

      Delete
    2. Okay, thank you!

      You suggested that we are stll in the last red one till tomorrow when probably S&P will go to lower regions?

      Delete
  24. Folks, with so many retailers getting ready for the crash ... chances are.. you know what.

    SC, is it ok for your crash cycle for VIX to go below 11?

    What will invalidate your crash model? What action should market take for you to say - ok, this thesis is wrong.

    You were saying 1600 was impossible, according to your model, and that we should not reach these price levels.

    Did it not make you model invalid?

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi SC, what is your view on Gold after this spîe up? is this the start of the real move? Do you still see a top around early august for PMs ?
    thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice start. I'm not sure Gold is ready to follow through higher just yet. It'll take weeks longer. I'm looking at much, much higher levels.

      Delete
  26. VIX is at the levels I've been been saying for months should occur before the crash.

    In Nov, the Cycles were very positive. I was very bullish, calling for the "sharp rally phase". That was correct and yes the rally was sharper than forecast, which is fine.

    Since then we have seen the overshoot of the red line for SPX, and turn down at A. The drop to the horizontal for SPX also occurred. Now we have bounced from the horizontal.

    The moves were predicted by the crash Cycles. The Cycles have been validated by the moves that have already occurred as predicted. The rising VIX from March as well is a strong confirmation of the models.

    ReplyDelete
  27. There is plenty enough evidence already.

    ReplyDelete
  28. There are no forks in the road when it comes to the market.

    ReplyDelete
  29. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  30. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  31. ...institutional investors have never (that's a long time) sold as much stock as they have in the last 4 weeks - as retail has been piling in.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-24/real-great-rotation

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hence the low volume float up as Institutions throw a few crumbs to retailers...

      Delete
    2. It's called 'distribution' as the 'smart' money sells to the 'dumb' money. Smart money is getting out.

      Delete
  32. Short term looks like VIX heading for 15-16.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      what does that translate for UVXY?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Can see $50 or better next week.

      Delete
    3. Hi SC

      you plan to exit your overweight position at that point?
      and keep the rest non overweight UVXY position?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. I may just hold UVXY. I'm not expecting much other than chop for weeks. Bigger picture looks great.

      Delete
  33. Any guesses on how metals/mining shares will fare in the weeks ahead?

    ReplyDelete
  34. I have today sign buy in WTIC or BRENT futures,this is very accurancy in years.This like up 2 days to finally week.Wtic like are strong next week ,maybe little down monday before more up.
    My swing system is one the best in Wtic or brent but this succes good in Dow or Dax but not big time.
    Strong Wtic and little danguer down in Dow or dax on next days.
    Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Mkts finally giving in today in Asia....if the US mkt opens down 0.6% as the futures are indicating, this could be the start of a 150 point move down IMO.

    I will be looking for a bounce (wave 2 up) off 1650ish to around 1665ish to add to UVXY.

    My initial UVXY ($42) has no stop but this next purchase will have the usual $1 stop.

    Finally we get some momentum from which to use technical analysis from...no rush to buy UVXY, plenty of opportunity before we hit the BIG wave 3 down.

    ReplyDelete
  36. SPX stalled at the pink resistance line. Expecting a choppy wave 4 for SPX for the next week or so down to 1650. Then the final wave 5.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Agree SC that option is still on the table....that's why it pays to wait & see if we get a sell off that's greater than a wave 4.

    If we do, look to short on the pullback but if not we have the option of shorting higher up in wave 5. Either way we eliminate a great deal of the risk.

    ReplyDelete
  38. SC, your July plan (per Saturday, June 22, 2013 update) - up into July 15th and down to 1370 on the SnP500 into August 5th is no longer valid time wise?

    How much is time pushed down the road?

    Saturday, June 22, 2013
    $SPX - July Plan - Large Moves Ahead!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, that is right. We got the big rally shown in the Cycle, but it has been slowly grinding up, burning time. I saw a negative spot into early Aug and it looks like we will see that too, but it is only wave 4 imo.

      So yes, wave 4 currently and dip for a week, and then wave 5 Aug. Once wave 5 is done, then crash in the Cycle.

      Delete
  39. Sc. How high can wave 5 go people r saying 1740- 1778

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1650 next, and little for wave 5.

      Delete
  40. So u don't e pext highter than 1700 for wave 5

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think down to 1650 and it can see over 1700 but little. In the Cycle after the yellow arrow there is little upside.

      Delete
  41. The VIX is firming up and in about a week due for a decent pop. It'll be choppy as it firms and will take weeks for it to be configured for a major move. Once it clears 16 or so though there is nothing to stop it from melting up to 40ish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you think VIX will break lower than 12 on the SPX move to 1700 on wave 5?

      Delete
    2. 50/50. The low a few days ago at 12 may hold, or could see 11.50ish.

      Delete
  42. Sc, when will you know if this was a wave 3 or 5? If spx breaks 1650 its a wave 5 but if it bounces then its a 3?

    Many spx charts show this as a 5? Are you prepared for that or is it outside the realm of possibility?

    ReplyDelete
  43. The evidence is strongly in favor of only wave 3 from my point of view.

    If SPX were to see 1610 then I would say it is over. Unlikely. It doesn't really matter much either way.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Conanbab, I see you have a buy signal in WTI/brent crude. What is your target for WTI? Do you think crude will lead and help SPX get to over 1700 in coming days or next week before big selloff to maybe 1650 SPX? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  45. There is a Cycle for Nasdaq that I have been watching for years. I see the pop in FB but doubt it will go too far anytime soon. However, I do see a specific spot in the Cycle due next year when the Nasdaq Cycle looks positive, and I believe FB could be quite interesting and bubble.

    Next year I'll be looking at it and the Nasdaq 100.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Rut. Wont gove up. So market recovered

    ReplyDelete
  47. Hi SC

    UVXY is making new low. Does that concern you? not sure if you have a stop in place, what would be your stop if you have one?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX firming up and looking strong for over 4 months.

      Delete
  48. VIX should touch 10.xx
    There's no doubt about this. Time frame is 10 trading days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah so? 10.xx is 2 pts....where does VIX go after that?

      That's right....UP!

      Delete
  49. Alan,the signs was buy Brent and Wtic,brent was more strong yesterday not new low,this is the best for system.Wtic down to 104$ and after up.I had sign sell before 21 july because here we had a mercury max s-d 20 july"This sign astrology in saturday or sunday is easy see down in WTIC OR BRENT"
    Monday is other day mercury max but max-w and i have a sign buy monday,but monday is not saturday or monday.This is like are bull Brent or wtic.This was when 12 june.
    Target easy 108$ in wtic and 109$ brent next week and tricky lost level 106$ brent or 104$ wtic.
    Spx more easy up that down but not always behave well.

    Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  50. lot of people expecting higher high in spx in wave 5, looks like a double top in iwm: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/tenpp/5
    vix broke out of bullish wedge
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905

    ReplyDelete
  51. these charts by Maurice walker in stock charts, I like his charts

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  52. looks like fxy is going up, that why the sell off in market

    ReplyDelete
  53. This price action is consistent with the wave 4 retracement. A lot of chop and churning is to be anticipated.

    SPX stalled at the pink resistance and going lower for about a week imo. VIX can test the 15-16 area in about a week.

    ReplyDelete
  54. it looks like uup, and fxy have bottomed , jjc and gold both coming down

    ReplyDelete
  55. Sc, still expecting UVXY over $50 next week or just chop in the 40's?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Give or take. It is going to be very choppy and that does keep the lid on it to some extent.

      Delete
  56. the problem is vxx is not moving, the gap on the indices will be filled, lot of people still saying v of 3 to come. if vxx is not moving, today, how much lower will it go with the rally

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The volatility etfs are basically just churning up and down in a sideways range imo. It is possible that VXX could dribble a little lower next week. For VXX it would not be a surprise to see 20 cents lower. Also little upside in the short term.

      A lot of chop but overall VIX rising for a week or so, and SPX decline for a week or so imo.

      Delete
  57. Where do you see Gold going in the S&P down turn?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold could see some retracement around these levels, but I am targeting much higher around $1600.

      Delete
    2. I think a retest of the lows happens first.

      Delete
  58. UVXY 20/50DMA bear cross says UVXY is likely to continue down trend.

    VIX to 9!

    ReplyDelete
  59. SC, I see that you think that SPX will target 1650 next. If this happens, then do you see SPX creep back up above 1700 before the mega drop? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I could see 1695, then near to 1650 in a week or so and then might see over 1700. A lot of chop.

      Delete
    2. Sc, does it bother you 10$ early with $48 UVXY call and $100 early on $140 call?

      Why no stops?

      XIV much more profitable!

      Delete
    3. Exactly what i'm thinking!! first off ..this should be a W4..

      I figure...up to 1694... then likely dropping to 1660's or 1650's (Head and shoulders targets 1654ish).. Then +60pts minimum in a W5

      Delete
    4. SC..

      Where can I see this point Z labeled and your overall crash pattern for that matter?

      I agree that we go as follows
      --1650ish..
      --then 1700+ (1720ish and more if it exends) that will be the end of W5
      -- Then a drop into the lower 1500's (mini crash but really its just a retracement)
      -- Then a rise to 1800's somewhere or maybe even 1900 depends on the wave count..

      That would put the real crash into 2014. There is a puetz window in november (possibly the C of the 1500ish drop).... Then another in May 2014..

      I don't see you talking about SPX in the 1800's - 1900's. Do you have that as a possiblity in your counts?

      The thing is my count is.... the top in the 1700's is a W3.. the drop to the 1500's is a W4 and the rise to 1800-1900 is the W5.... That is when I think the crash begins..

      Delete
    5. My thinking is much in tune with that view. I'm just waiting for this rally to finish up in Aug then crash down to point P.

      I don't see 1500 holding because the horizontal red line in my Cycle model is at 1540, and the crash occurs at that level. So I see it going a bit lower than you, but similar idea. I have estimated 1380ish for point P. That target is also the main trendline up from 2009 SPX March low.

      I see that level being a strong support though and a big bounce there. So I will turn bullish again at those levels for the big bounce. I don't want to get too far ahead of things but will estimate that rally size once down there. You see a higher high on that rally move and that looks possible. Once that rally completes then the Z crash.

      The Z crash is the scary one, much larger than the P crash.

      The P and Z moves are shown here on the last chart. You'll see the big bounce after P, and keep in mind that bounce could see higher than current levels prior to the Z move:

      http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2013/06/spx-down-trend-from-cycle-point-a.html

      Anyway my Cycle is similar to your view.

      Delete
    6. It's best to look at it each phase at a time.

      Delete
  60. S&P 500 on historical highs looking to top out, bullishness all over, VIX in the lower trading range, UVXY in the basement, August September soon upon us, isn`t this a great time to - "push it to the limit" and go "all in" UVXY ?
    I`m tempted anyway, but maybe I will just burn myself in a big way (3rd degrees).

    ReplyDelete
  61. DOW

    If the cycle holds true, I believe traders thinking it will be a standard wave formation down will be surprised! Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Which means what Joed ?

      Delete
    2. pb

      In my work I pay attention to swings rather then waves and if this cycle holds true the traditional corrections will not look as expected in wave analysis and will have a tendency to confuse wave analysis! Good trading! joed

      Delete
  62. Armstrong says this ain't the big one...
    "We should see volatility start to rise next week. The Dow is inching upward but is unlikely to exceed the primary target resistance in the 16000 area. A drop back in many markets into September is likely. But keep in mind that the major event should be later 2015 – not right now."
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/07/19/ecm-872013-turning-point/

    ReplyDelete
  63. rotrot July 19, 2013 at 5:12PM

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/07/spx-crash-approaching-update_3072.html?showComment=1374279168527#c8983988127923267

    ReplyDelete
  64. I am to see a big play here,Dow,dax,sp500 easy up to november this year around 10 agoust like began time bull to november,not play down market.Other think,eur/usd like around 10 agoust began up strong longuer maybe 2015 to level!! 1.70 or more!!
    Before 1-2 week agoust stockmarket can down,maybe but this not play.
    Brent or wtic like down monday and good oportunity bull for week.
    Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  65. SC, http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/
    this site is suggesting a blowoff top by aug 20, to dow 16500.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Any corrections will stop at 1650-54. No more downside than that this year. VIX will go down AND stay down remainder of year. This is a 20% plus year for S&P. Gains to hold comfortably. Upper 1700s coming sooner rather than later. Beware. Debate is healthy when making market calls. Merkel will win German elections, debt ceiling will be resolved with time to spare...QE will go on as usual. This is not the 1990s but will trade that way nonetheless...UP...UP...and ...more...UP. LNKD at 209....FB returning to 38 and beyond. Momentum...UP. When the QE training wheels come off....still UP.....that will be the shocker.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Be Careful

      what your position? are you long XIV? how much?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. what are you using to support your thesis? Also, what do you see for the Gold miners if anything at all? I felt like Gold will double bottom before any meaningful rise, which means we have another drop ahead...

      Delete
  67. When retailers are waiting for a crash - guess what happens.

    TIMING IS EVERYTHING.

    Do your own homework folks and don't follow blindly.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Gold¡"backwardation"
    The price of the few physical gold is very much major that that of the forward market, to mas distant maturity mas differentially. The gold is not wheat or coffee they are reservations of central banks.
    The permanent "backwardation" of the gold will be the first sign of that the confidence on the golden forward market has been ruined. Unlike the cereals, million persons and many institutions they have a golden heap that they can sell on the physical market and repurchase across contracts of futures. When they decide not to do it, it will be the beginning of the end of the financial current system?MMM DANGUER?
    Regards.

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  69. utilize proprietary versions of NYSI, NASI, BPCOMPQ to help gauge the state of the market...BPCOMPQ went negative today...NYSI and NASI are barely holding on...

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