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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

$SPX - Cycle Update

The Cycle for SPX showed the retracement from the yellow arrow.  Even though SPX is bouncing sharply at the moment, it is not clear that the purple arrow Cycle low is in place yet.  Recent lows could potentially be retested.

SPX may find resistance around the pink resistance line once again.

60min Chart
















Crash Cycle #1:



















Posted by at

132 comments:

  1. sydSeptember 11, 2013 at 1:50 PM

    SC,

    Thanks for your considerate approach! s

    ReplyDelete
  2. PayDaySeptember 11, 2013 at 10:55 PM

    What level SPX is the Pink arrow?

    And is Vix making new lows or higher lows on this move towards pink?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:07 AM

      The pink arrow should be just slightly above the yellow. According to the VIX Cycle, the August low is expected to hold for VIX. Update for the VIX Cycle is coming.

      Delete
    2. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:08 AM

      Higher lows for VIX.

      Delete
  3. SimpleSeptember 12, 2013 at 12:09 AM

    Thanks for your update. The 1hr chart of SPX looks like the bearish shark pattern defined here: http://www.niftypundit.com/uploads/1366164701.jpg

    We are very close!

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:05 AM

    I'll be shorting S&P again soon.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:31 AM

    VIX trading in the 13's as per the plan.

    SCSeptember 3, 2013 at 7:26 AM

    "I think VIX cools but support for VIX in the 13's range."

    ReplyDelete
  6. MeteoSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:37 AM

    nice call , SC. SPX ,silver & Vix . i hope for the big crash in Fall.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:45 AM

    VIX did see a little higher in Aug than my 15-16 orange arrow VIX Cycle high.

    SCAugust 5, 2013 at 11:20 AM
    "The orange arrow should be around 15 to 16."

    ReplyDelete
  8. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:47 AM

    In Aug it was just the retracement as shown in the Cycle.

    SCAugust 21, 2013 at 7:46 AM

    "I know the market feels "crashy" at the moment but just let this VIX configuration mature. There is some time yet before it'll be ready to crash."

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:49 AM

    VIX pushed to the limits but stopped in the 17's.

    SCAugust 21, 2013 at 7:50 AM

    "For one thing 18 is a strong resistance for VIX. Even if VIX were to continue to rise here it should stop around 18, and cool off into the 14's for a spot to take a position.

    The 50dma for VIX is curling down at the moment. Even if VIX were to rise to 18 it is not ready to crash!"

    ReplyDelete
  10. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 8:23 AM

    Sc. Falls. Gold stocks should should also fall

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 8:30 AM

      Yes, my Silver Cycle shows that as well, agree.

      Delete
    2. SCSeptember 12, 2013 at 8:31 AM

      However, it is a matter of timing. Metals are consolidating, but will not be ready for a major fall for at least a month or two according to the Cycle.

      Delete
  11. beetlejuiceSeptember 12, 2013 at 8:22 PM

    It seems we have situation again where despite overbought indicators on the indices, even the bearish analysts are looking for higher highs?

    I still maintain that this market will fool most and turn down before we get higher highs.
    I think we're there.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousSeptember 15, 2013 at 1:01 PM

    My apprehension with this market is how will the events unfolding in the ME impact the markets.

    Any insight?

    ReplyDelete
  13. beetlejuiceSeptember 16, 2013 at 7:26 AM

    RE the announcement of Summers and the market reaction.

    Reminds me of the saying my Grandpappy used to use:

    "Beware of Greeks Bearing Gifts"

    ReplyDelete
  14. PayDaySeptember 16, 2013 at 10:21 AM

    SC, with the 20 pt move over 1700 has SPX met the pink target yet or is more upside possible?

    I am surprised VIX still around 14 still. Is this the higher low you were referring to?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 16, 2013 at 7:36 PM

      SPX looks toppy short term and the VIX cycle is probably near the higher low before the red arrow low.

      So the VIX is bottoming out, but there are a few gyrations in the cycle before anything major occurs.

      Delete
  15. rotrotSeptember 16, 2013 at 10:32 AM

    Banks May Soon Face Severe Limitations in Commodities Markets

    http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Banks-May-Soon-Face-Severe-Limitations/9/16/2013/id/51775

    ReplyDelete
  16. SCSeptember 16, 2013 at 7:39 PM

    SPX looks toppy short term, and a dip can occur soon, but the pink arrow high is likely weeks away.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousSeptember 17, 2013 at 7:21 AM

    If you want a good look of what might happen with SPY go to http://stockcharts.com/public/1696337. The second chart is for SPY. Please note I am not affiliated with this person. He has a very good track record using Elliott Wave.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 17, 2013 at 5:04 PM

      kygold61 - I use to follow PUG. He's basically stating 1900 then down?

      He always seemed bullish so this is a change.

      Delete
  18. joedSeptember 17, 2013 at 10:18 AM

    CRUDE/GOLD

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  19. TusharSeptember 18, 2013 at 7:13 AM

    Hi Sc, I am trying to understand if we are looking at similarities in technical picture of the VIX now and during July 2011. If so, what are they currently that is tradeable and the timeframe in coming weeks when we can initiate the trade? Please share your thoughts,thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 18, 2013 at 7:35 PM

      Compared to 2011, imo we would be in June 2011. A few gyrations first, and then I could see similarilies. I'll be discussing that in weeks ahead.

      Early still.

      Delete
  20. DavidSeptember 18, 2013 at 9:57 AM

    From Bloomberg:

    “This year’s rally in U.S. stocks has led to a 19 percent
    plunge in the VIX, creating profitable strategies to bet against volatility futures. A decline in equities and subsequent increase in share-price swings would bring losses for VIX short sellers, which may drive them to cover the trades, according to Ramon Verastegui of Societe Generale. Increased demand for the contracts will push volatility higher and may exacerbate the stock-market selloff, he said.

    The concentrated short in the VIX futures is like a red
    point if you look at a map of the market, signaling potential
    risk,” Verastegui, head of engineering and strategy at the
    French bank, said in a Sept. 13 interview from New York. “A
    short squeeze in the VIX will have an impact on the volatility
    market and that can spill over into other markets, accelerating
    a move down in the S&P 500.”

    ReplyDelete
  21. StockboomSeptember 18, 2013 at 11:45 AM

    This market is not turning back now...will go up forever I guess or until FED really taper...long live BULLS....

    ReplyDelete
  22. UnknownSeptember 18, 2013 at 12:14 PM

    SC can u please post some new comments

    ReplyDelete
  23. SantaSeptember 18, 2013 at 12:20 PM

    Hi SC

    If Pink arrow high is weeks away. are you still planning to hold your UVXY till then?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  24. PayDaySeptember 18, 2013 at 1:10 PM

    My guess 1765-1770 for pink arrow top.... Then crash!

    VIX move to 12-12.50 for higher low...then move to 45

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaSeptember 18, 2013 at 1:30 PM

      Hi PayDay

      we are like basically at 1730, your guess of about 30-40 more points than the crash, do you see this to happen really soon? Shouldnt take long to go 30-40 more up points at this rate.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. PayDaySeptember 18, 2013 at 3:17 PM

      I think if Merkel wins the German election it should be the boost foe SPX 1770+.... German election very close so thats why I think BS Ben Bernake cried "wolf" again and no taper...cannot afford any market weakness in Europe right now.

      After Merkel is 'in' anything can happen.

      Vix 12 & under always a buy imho. Uvxy may see 22-25 and then load up.

      Delete
    3. SantaSeptember 18, 2013 at 3:26 PM

      PayDay

      have you seen the NYMO chart? it at a level of extreme overbought that was not seen since last year. I doubt we go much higher, minor or major pullback is overly due.

      Thanks!

      Delete
  25. UnknownSeptember 18, 2013 at 2:59 PM

    Anyone noticed how SC stop monitoring? I bet yah I can get him to do it again.:-)

    ReplyDelete
  26. SantaSeptember 18, 2013 at 3:07 PM

    i dont think we are looking for crash here anymore, more like new bull rip in the medium term according to SC map with that Pink arrow.

    ReplyDelete
  27. PayDaySeptember 18, 2013 at 3:24 PM

    Only reason crash hasnt happened yet is due to central bank intervention.

    Market was set to crash oct 2011.... Then CB step in

    Again in July and Sept 2012

    Anytime CB lets foot off the QE gas petal the market tanks... Eventually even QE will no longer work (just like white house has no problem starting war after war after war for last 23 years...now Syria...people finally wake up and say NO! russia &China say NO! Poor Obummer has his tail between his legs)

    Now NO ONE WANTS TO REPLACE BEN CRIED WOLF BERNAKE,! Not summers, not Gueitner....WHY? B/c they know TSHTF very soon...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaSeptember 18, 2013 at 3:41 PM

      biggest interest to me right now is Yellen, everyone and their mother is saying Yellen replace Ben...why then there is zero interview with this lady on news or anything...no one knows what her promises are when she becomes fed chair, beside guessing around. Giving today reaction, imagine Ben steps up and announce he wont leave, i bet that can and probably will happen :)

      Delete
  28. UnknownSeptember 18, 2013 at 4:49 PM

    Monday, December 5, 2011

    SPY - Top is IN!

    All of the cycles and methods that I use in my analysis are unanimously bearish with a major decline commencing today, and continuing through December. The symmetry indicates that the decline will be steady, relentless with no significant bounces until 1044 SPX.
    A substantial bounce is expected from the 1044 SPX January 2012 target. A final low is estimated at 1025 SPX early 2012. The entire process is mapped out in the symmetry to be an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern encompassing several months early 2012. The target at the green arrow is the Left Shoulder.

    This is a market trending downwards. There have been lower highs since late October, and in fact, lower highs since May.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SCSeptember 18, 2013 at 7:46 PM

    VIX and UVXY are likely to pop soon, with a pullback for a few weeks next for SPX.

    Although I expect a pullback soon, I'm simply waiting for the VIX cycle to mature to the red arrow. That will not occur until October.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Open MindedSeptember 19, 2013 at 11:37 AM

      SC,

      I'm a tad lost on where you see us on the VIX cycle. You mention waiting for the VIX cycle to mature to the red arrow; Are you referring to the red arrow on your Sept. 8th VIX Cycle post? I thought that we were heading for the blue arrow on your Large Scale Mount Everest Cycle and thus had past the red arrow already.

      Thank you for all your work, cheers!

      Delete
    2. SCSeptember 22, 2013 at 8:05 PM

      The red arrow is for the VIX Cycle. We have seen the drop for VIX from the orange arrow and will be approaching the red arrow low in coming weeks.

      The first blue arrow is in place for the Mount Everest Cycle which is for UVXY. We do need to give time here for the second blue arrow to form.

      It's getting there slowly but surely.

      Delete
  30. SCSeptember 18, 2013 at 7:51 PM

    Based on the Cycles there won't be major moves for a while yet.

    The Cycles are working nicely, and I'm sitting back waiting to take positions once this lines up for the major move.

    As I said in August it will drop but only the wave 4. Now we are into the wave 5 as per the plan. Once the wave 5 completes then I'll be shorting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DarrenderekSeptember 18, 2013 at 8:00 PM

      SC,
      Sorry, I'm a bit confused. are you saying we are now into Wave 5 up? if so, then why would VIX and UVXY pop soon? if S&P is going to hit 1760 -1780 (just a wild guess) in this Wave 5, UVXY would probably hit low 20's before the next surge?

      Delete
    2. SCSeptember 19, 2013 at 4:51 AM

      Market is top heavy short term, so should dip soon, and then a higher high for SPX in Oct. So I do expect a moderate pop for UVXY to mid $30 then cool again.

      Delete
  31. SCSeptember 18, 2013 at 7:55 PM

    Bears should see moderate pullback for a few weeks next, but I'm not going to be doing much for weeks until this set's up properly.

    ReplyDelete
  32. JohnSeptember 18, 2013 at 8:06 PM

    do you see uvxy making a new low at the red arrow or a higher low?
    Thanks for sharing your work!

    ReplyDelete
  33. SCSeptember 19, 2013 at 4:50 AM

    UVXY should pop to mid $30 range soon. Then according to the Cycle looking for a double bottom with current levels.

    After that things become much more interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  34. rose2797September 19, 2013 at 6:17 AM

    Sc when do u see double bottom in uvxy. People not expecting any correction now. 1775 1800 targets now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 22, 2013 at 11:34 AM

      It'll take weeks imo. UVXY can pop up here and then settle to form ideally a double bottom.

      Delete
  35. PayDaySeptember 19, 2013 at 7:31 AM

    SC, outlook for gold? Nice pop yesterday in miners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 22, 2013 at 11:36 AM

      Not expecting any major moves for a while according to my Silver Cycle. Consolidation next.

      Delete
  36. pbSeptember 19, 2013 at 1:49 PM

    "Market is top heavy short term, so should dip soon, and then a higher high for SPX in Oct. So I do expect a moderate pop for UVXY to mid $30 then cool again."

    SC are you expecting this crash senerio to occur after this higher high in October?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 22, 2013 at 11:37 AM

      We are due to dip short term but these Cycles are projecting an Oct high.

      I will have an update coming on timing.

      Delete
  37. SantaSeptember 19, 2013 at 2:48 PM

    Hi SC

    There is a ton of talk in various blog that 2014 spring will have this big pullback/"crash". Is that what you see in your longer term forecast now?

    Remembered you mention before that it will take weeks to get to the pink arrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 22, 2013 at 11:42 AM

      We're on pace for an Oct high but due to dip short term. It's going to crash, but need to let it top out first of course.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousSeptember 28, 2013 at 3:42 PM

      SC.
      Thanks for you analysis. I'm looking for your thoughts. I see 2 possibilities. In either case I see Oct as a high as well.
      The question I have is whether the move from the 666 lows in 2009 is an ABC move up or a 5 wave count up.



      1. The move from 666 in 2009 was an ABC. If so, the bull market top is in early Oct in the 1750-1770 area. Then a bear market starts.

      2. The move from 666 in 2009 was a 5 wave count and not an ABC. If so, from the same 1750-1770 top area (a W3 top in this case) we will then drop to the 2009 bottom trendline in the 1510's -1520's in late december in a W4. Then from there a W5 of +348 to 1858 in May 2014. Then a bear market starts.

      November 2013 and May 2014 are both Puetz windows so they are potential market highs and so potential crash points...

      Delete
  38. ScruffSeptember 19, 2013 at 9:01 PM

    It would be nice to know why you think "this" cycle is the precursor for the SPX cycle.. Perhaps, show this cycle outlaid amongst other cycles. Maybe? This is beginning to seem to be more of a fancy of yours than a prognostication at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  39. beetlejuiceSeptember 21, 2013 at 12:33 AM

    A few things that have struck me today.

    Number 1. German elections Sunday. Polls no too close to call. What happens to the Euro zone if Merkel doesn't win?

    Look at the DAX run up the last few weeks. Is it a case of buy the rumor sell the news?
    Some German political analysts are saying it is going to be close, really close. The only thing markets like less than the wrong decision is no decision.
    Dare I even suggest the DAX gap down on Monday creating a "island reversal" on the DAX weekly chart:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DAX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p29038244413

    Now the DOW weekly chart. A bearish "shooting star". The negative divergences in the RSI and UltOsc are frightening.
    As I said somewhere on Wednesday. The Fed slashes growth forecasts and the market leaps higher. Nothing wrong here, market in perfect working order!

    Unless we get a "black swan" event that is!!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p60835352836




    ReplyDelete
  40. rotrotSeptember 21, 2013 at 1:26 PM

    UVXY...it's approaching a buy...not there yet...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaSeptember 22, 2013 at 5:16 PM

      Hi Rotrot

      can you provide a bit more detail than it approaching a buy but not there yet? Like what kind of buy you talking about, a day trade type of buy or medium term buy or longer term buy?

      And not there yet, do you mean weeks away, months away, years away?


      Thank in advance.

      Delete
    2. rotrotSeptember 24, 2013 at 1:38 PM

      http://tinyurl.com/leg94vp

      Delete
    3. SantaSeptember 24, 2013 at 2:38 PM

      Hi Rotrot

      Looks like from your chart, dont know what that blue chart at the bottom is, but it looks like it going up, and lines up with a bounce with UVXY in the past from that chart. Is that what you trying to show there?

      Still not sure if you meant short, medium or long term buy on UVXY though?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    4. rotrotSeptember 26, 2013 at 2:31 PM

      UVXY...getting closer to a buy...looks like a few more days...

      Delete
    5. rotrotSeptember 30, 2013 at 7:36 AM

      UVXY...trend is now confirmed to be up...

      Delete
  41. SCSeptember 24, 2013 at 6:07 AM

    It's not that far away. There are several steps. First it has to top, then according to the models decline moderately for a while, and then plunge.

    It will take time for all the steps but we are in the late stages of the topping process in these models.

    ReplyDelete
  42. SantaSeptember 24, 2013 at 2:06 PM

    Hi SC

    what you think of the miners right now?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  43. SCSeptember 25, 2013 at 5:05 AM

    They look ok, but not expecting major move. Small upside in near term imo.

    ReplyDelete
  44. rotrotSeptember 25, 2013 at 5:51 AM

    as previously mentioned, utilize proprietary versions of NYSI, NASI, BPCOMPQ to help gauge the state of the market...all are in the sell zone (can stay there for some time before a sell signal is generated)...look at standard charts for NYSI, NASI, and BPCOMPQ...all reflect significant negative divergences with price action...

    NYAD has made three peaks on the daily cumulative chart...164.3 in May, 164.3 in July, 163.9 in September...diverging negatively with price action...NYAD has a tendency to peak before the indices...NYAD sometimes bottoms concurrent with the indices...could get interesting...

    ReplyDelete
  45. UnknownSeptember 26, 2013 at 1:39 AM

    SC,

    Where do you think VIX is in your VIX Cycle 1?

    UVXY must pop-up to mid 30's (35?) before making the double bottom?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 26, 2013 at 5:16 AM

      We formed the first low after the orange arrow high in the VIX Cycle. The action for VIX has been perfect according to this Cycle. Now VIX is seeing that moderate pop that was shown on the Cycle.

      Once this pop is complete then the VIX Cycle will approach the red arrow low.

      I am simply waiting for the red arrow low...

      Delete
    2. DavidSeptember 26, 2013 at 11:09 AM

      October 7ish would be the red arrow if using a matching distance from green to orange arrows.

      Delete
    3. SCSeptember 26, 2013 at 3:59 PM

      Thank you, I'm going to have an update coming on the progress of the Cycle. Very pleased with the way this VIX cycle has worked.

      Delete
  46. UnknownSeptember 26, 2013 at 5:56 AM

    It seems that the pop-up ( 4 green candles ) after the orange arrow is completed.

    Do You agree?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCSeptember 26, 2013 at 4:03 PM

      Suspect it may still be a little early for that, but let's see how things shape up next.

      Delete
  47. AnonymousSeptember 26, 2013 at 5:02 PM

    I still think it's going to be hard for the markets to correct when the Fed is still pumping money into them

    ReplyDelete
  48. AnonymousSeptember 26, 2013 at 7:11 PM

    H,

    I agree. But I fear when it does it will be quite a correction.

    ReplyDelete
  49. SantaSeptember 30, 2013 at 12:51 PM

    Hi SC

    Just as your predict, UVXY is around the mid 30 range. Do you now expect it to cool down back into the high 20 range?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  50. SCSeptember 30, 2013 at 4:13 PM

    Yes exactly per the plan! VIX should be reaching a high right around this level, and cool off. Timing for VIX to cool mid-Oct to hit the red arrow Cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaSeptember 30, 2013 at 6:03 PM

      Hi SC

      Do you plan to go over over weight with UVXY then at that point and just hold it till next year?

      Thanks!


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCOctober 1, 2013 at 4:58 AM

      My plan will be to load up UVXY at the red arrow in the VIX Cycle. Mid-Oct. This will be the first opportunity in history to catch a major crash with a volatility etf.

      That is why I have plenty of patience. The last time we saw this large a move setting up was 2007.

      Delete
    3. SCOctober 1, 2013 at 5:01 AM

      I have a very specific plan and it is setting up nicely with the Cycle working extremely well.

      Things are quiet now which is why I haven't been that active. After taking profits on the last set of trades, I am simply waiting for the right moment in these Cycles.

      I will have charts and updates coming this month as the Cycles mature.

      Delete
  51. UnknownOctober 1, 2013 at 7:24 AM

    SC, what are your thoughts on GOLD and the metals here? Do you still think they will move higher before lower? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  52. SantaOctober 1, 2013 at 11:15 AM

    Hi SC

    Do you have a target for UVXY mid Oct where you plan to buy?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  53. SCOctober 1, 2013 at 3:58 PM

    I don't have a target for UVXY mid - Oct but the VIX Cycle shows VIX re-testing near the Sept low. Ideally a slight higher low for VIX during Oct.

    ReplyDelete
  54. SCOctober 1, 2013 at 4:03 PM

    Gold and metals should have some upside short term but nothing exciting. Just a moderate move.

    ReplyDelete
  55. beetlejuiceOctober 2, 2013 at 5:06 PM

    SC I think you are trying to play this way too cute. You are looking for a bounce into mid Oct but the facti is that this market could tank at any moment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PayDayOctober 3, 2013 at 7:38 AM

      SC still has his UVXY position from 140 and is just waiting to ADD more on the next VIX cool off.

      I have similar strategy and maintain core UVxY position at all times just in case TSHTF!

      Delete
  56. SCOctober 3, 2013 at 5:31 AM

    In this market environment I'm simply waiting to short. The VIX Cycle has been excellent and suggests VIX cools into the 13 area with the market collapsing at that time.

    ReplyDelete
  57. SantaOctober 3, 2013 at 7:30 AM

    Hello SC

    VIX is above 17 here. and still no conclusion on the shutdown. On top of that SPX is negative. How do you see VIX and SPX diverge now? shouldnt they follow each other?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  58. beetlejuiceOctober 3, 2013 at 8:53 AM

    "In this market environment I'm simply waiting to short"

    SC It's dropping like a rock, so what environment are you waiting for? Do you honestly believe that the VIX is coming back down to the low teens?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PayDayOctober 3, 2013 at 9:18 AM

      Its possible Vix cools off if shutdown is resolved before debt ceiling...shutdown would beed to last another 2 weeks which seems unlikely imho.

      Remember in 2011 it wasnt the debt ceiling hat crashed the market. Obama came to an agreement with Congress end of July and market rallied...it was the DOWNGRADE of US credit rating a week later Aug 6 that started the plunge.

      Delete
  59. Be CarefulOctober 3, 2013 at 10:29 AM

    Ok ok...that was it. Vix last spike until next winter. Back down to 11 now. 1750 next S&P. Without a doubt.
    No more news of any consequence remainder of year. We hit the worst. Done.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. beetlejuiceOctober 3, 2013 at 11:44 AM

      I'm glad you're so certain.

      The way I see it the US has a broken and corrupt political system that holds the world to ransom via the USD reserve currency status. For way too long the US has abused that reserve status privilege and has been exporting inflation to the rest of the world so that it can live the high life.
      The time is fast approaching, the piper has to be paid!

      Delete
  60. PayDayOctober 6, 2013 at 4:36 AM

    New charts soon?

    ReplyDelete
  61. SantaOctober 7, 2013 at 9:04 AM

    Hi SC

    You still seeing VIX back to 13 area? currently we are around 18 area for VIX...and we are heading towards mid october.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  62. AnonymousOctober 7, 2013 at 10:20 AM

    Folks, Why do you keep doing this to yourself?

    There is no free lunch. You have to work hard on your own, develop your own system and then MAY BE you will be somewhat successful at speculating the markets.

    First thing you have to do is cut off the noise in order to gain clarity.

    ReplyDelete
  63. ConanbabOctober 7, 2013 at 3:16 PM

    Maybe Dow in 16.000 points around 15-20 november,i am believe are near began a rally from 9 october to medium november rally easy.Level 14.700 good buy in short time tomorrow or 9 october!!!

    ReplyDelete
  64. beetlejuiceOctober 7, 2013 at 4:15 PM

    In case most of you didn't notice. The DOW put in a a very bearish "shooting star" reversal the week commencing 16th September.
    This market now has the potential to accelerate to the downside.
    The bulls will want to hope that the August lows hold because if they don't we have a double top and another 1K pt drop on the DOW at least.

    This market is changing very rapidly. Most participants are still calling for higher highs in the intermediate term.
    I would suggest that when "late comers" realise that higher highs are not going to eventuate in the immediate term that a panic will ensue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. beetlejuiceOctober 7, 2013 at 4:18 PM

      Secondly, if you don't like what SC has to say.....bugger off!

      Delete
    2. SantaOctober 7, 2013 at 5:54 PM

      he has not said anything for a while time ;)

      Delete
  65. SCOctober 7, 2013 at 6:09 PM

    I have a number of updates coming later this week. Everything going as per the models. This pop for VIX was shown in the Cycle. I did say mid-Sept to look for a moderate drop in SPX. We have seen that occur now.

    VIX has the golden cross. However, still need the red arrow low in the VIX - higher low.

    This should take about 2 weeks to hit the red arrow low. Therefore the market should rally for about weeks, but use caution. Once these Cycles are mature the bottom is due to fall out.

    Not much time left.

    ReplyDelete
  66. PayDayOctober 7, 2013 at 6:22 PM

    Isnt it possible red arrow low in VIX was hit 2 weeks ago at 12.52 and now huge volatility spike?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SantaOctober 7, 2013 at 6:42 PM

      payday

      That exactly what i wonder as well, like could we have hit it earlier SC?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  67. SCOctober 7, 2013 at 7:06 PM

    No, the VIX is due to slide for a couple weeks next to form another higher low according to this Cycle. The red arrow low. I have the charts coming later this week and I'm confident the market rallies for a couple weeks next.

    ReplyDelete
  68. SCOctober 7, 2013 at 7:12 PM

    This steady slide for SPX was exactly what the VIX Cycle suggested. I'll show what I mean with the charts coming. It should be a steady rally next for a couple weeks. Slow and steady up and then will be ready to plunge.

    ReplyDelete
  69. SCOctober 7, 2013 at 7:13 PM

    I have a plan and will be getting more active soon.

    ReplyDelete
  70. PayDayOctober 7, 2013 at 9:14 PM

    Has that pink arrow top been met on the SPX chart? I just see continuing downtrend after the pink arrow, and then a crash...no bounce?!

    ReplyDelete
  71. SCOctober 8, 2013 at 4:24 AM

    The SPX Cycle is bigger picture and doesn't show much of the detail. The pink arrow may be in place, but we should see at least a lower high to challenge the Sept high according to the smaller Cycles which are more accurate for that detail.

    ReplyDelete
  72. PayDayOctober 8, 2013 at 8:33 AM

    I do not see a 2 week bounce unless the govt shutdown / debt ceiling is solved...and i dont see that happening any time soon either.

    Only 2 scenarios:

    A. No debt ceiling solution, default and immediate panic crash/VIX spike to 40's

    B. Last second debt agreement, breif relief bounce...then another downgrade and panic ensues few days later.

    ReplyDelete
  73. SantaOctober 8, 2013 at 11:09 AM

    Hi SC

    VIX just broke above 20 today. your cycle picture still on track it going lower? like it wouldnt have been late again right?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 8, 2013 at 5:46 PM

      Still the same. Expecting market to rally for a couple weeks.

      Delete
    2. SantaOctober 9, 2013 at 1:13 PM

      Hi SC

      You think the bounce started yet?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  74. SCOctober 9, 2013 at 6:49 PM

    VIX bottomed in middle of March.

    ReplyDelete
  75. SCOctober 9, 2013 at 6:54 PM

    VIX to dip for a couple weeks and then up to 40. 70-80 VIX first half next year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DarrenderekOctober 10, 2013 at 1:01 AM

      SC,
      how low will you expect UVXY to drop for the coming weeks? and then it will be the best entry point for the next crash in S&P?

      Delete
    2. SCOctober 10, 2013 at 4:55 AM

      Around $30 for UVXY late this month.

      Delete
  76. StevenOctober 9, 2013 at 9:44 PM

    How loyal friendship!!! UNKNOWN

    ReplyDelete
  77. SCOctober 10, 2013 at 4:57 AM

    Rally time! I have a number of charts and updates coming soon.

    ReplyDelete
  78. UnknownOctober 10, 2013 at 7:12 AM

    Conanbab, great timing call on that date! Do you happen to see SPX retest next week before going higher or is it straight up from here til mid November? Thanks

    SC or anyone else, do you guys still see one more new high for a blowoff top or a lower high than 9/19?

    ReplyDelete
  79. beetlejuiceOctober 10, 2013 at 9:59 AM

    I can't believe that the market actually thinks that Obummer is going to agree to this proposal!?????

    ReplyDelete
  80. ConanbabOctober 10, 2013 at 3:16 PM

    I am believe stockmarket bull and few correction to 10-15 november,then maybe a weak time began 2014 with march-april more dangerous.But here not like we have a crash and from month may to finish 2014 year bull sockmarket.14 april to 28 april is best time bear maybe but To need similar distant view run the time clear up themselves doubts.

    ReplyDelete
  81. SantaOctober 10, 2013 at 3:28 PM

    Hi SC

    UVXY almost around 30 something today. You think it will go lower than your target now considering you thinking we rally for a couple weeks?



    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 11, 2013 at 7:50 AM

      UVXY should see a bit lower yet since I think 13's is support for VIX.

      Delete
  82. Be CarefulOctober 10, 2013 at 7:10 PM

    No to 40 Vix. Not even 21 again this year. There won't be a default and the shutdown will end in a couple of days. Mid 1700s S&P. Not all that exciting.

    ReplyDelete
  83. PayDayOctober 10, 2013 at 8:07 PM

    SC, this next drop to VIX back to 12's or higher low? Also is this the final red arrow low?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 11, 2013 at 7:49 AM

      13's is support for VIX. Another week or so. Yes, the charts are coming to show that this is the approach to the red arrow low for VIX.

      Delete
  84. SqrootOctober 11, 2013 at 11:57 AM

    "We are observing a huge divergence now between the daily number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE and what price indices like the SP500 are doing. In the past, divergences like this have been followed by more significant declines than what we have seen thus far. "

    http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/new_highs_divergence/

    ReplyDelete

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