June:
"Silver is likely bottoming out at the turquoise arrow Cycle low. The rally next for Silver and Gold should be very sharp according to the Cycle. Price goes almost straight up from the turquoise arrow low in the Cycle."
2day Chart
Before:
2day Chart
Silver Bear Market Cycle:
so when u expecting 2 more rallies and bottom will it bottom around 12-15 and about time period
ReplyDeleteMy long term downside target from when I called the Silver bear market to start in 2011 is $6.50. 1.5 years.
DeleteThe turquoise arrow low for Silver is expected to hold for this year. Silver can see a little higher, but not that attractive at these levels according to the Cycle.
ReplyDeleteSC where do you see the VIX topping in the fall?? Is it still in the 40's?
ReplyDeleteYes, the VIX is cooling from the orange Cycle high last week. VIX should pop to 15's this week but the red Cycle low for VIX in due in Sept.
DeleteFrom the red Cycle low around 40 VIX.
Hi SC:
ReplyDeleteDo you anticipate Gold heading lower from here for September? Also, if the broader market is setting up for a serious decline, would you expect Gold to start going up sometime in September? Thanks for all that you do.
I think there is some resistance approaching for Gold soon. For Gold choppy and probably higher in Sept/Oct. The Silver Cycle is approaching a peak.
DeleteThe Gold/Silver safe haven trade worked during this time frame and I expect it can work for a while longer for Gold.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the Silver Cycle is approaching a peak not much higher from current levels. The easy money has been made since June for Silver especially.
The Silver Cyle is approaching a peak but Gold may top after Silver I suspect.
DeleteHas todays action changed anything for your outlook in VIX short term?
ReplyDeleteStill the same. This is the pop from the hollow candle Cycle low for VIX.
DeleteSCAugust 23, 2013 at 11:42 AM
"1 Candle on the Cycle has been about 1.5 days for VIX roughly. After the hollow candle there is a small pop for VIX. So a dip for SPX can be expected late this month."
SCAugust 23, 2013 at 8:14 AM
"In this VIX Cycle after the orange arrow there are two candles. The hollow red candle low is the second candle after the orange arrow in the Cycle.
Surprise, today VIX has a hollow red candle on the daily chart!"
I suspected that UVXY would see a higher high and it did today.
DeleteSCAugust 22, 2013 at 8:16 AM
"It is possible that UVXY may still put in a higher high than yesterday later this month. I say this because right after that hollow VIX candle, VIX make a little pop there for a lower high.
I suspect this may be a higher high for UVXY."
So still another drop to VIX red arrow? 13's next week?
DeleteShould be heading to the red arrow next according to this Cycle 11.50-12.
DeleteThe VIX Cycle shows a very steady slide for VIX to the red arrow and that implies a steady rally for SPX.
DeleteWould Syria war trump all that? Black swan &all
DeleteWell I'll go with the Cycle timing until proven otherwise.
DeleteWhat I will say is this. The Cycle is pointing to the crash starting in Sept. Therefore, there is not much difference other than short term timing.
What are the odds that today - rather than 8/21 - was the "orange arrow" in your VIX cycle?
ReplyDeleteIt could be possible.
DeleteIt will be easy to tell for sure soon enough next few days.
Deleteyou see a crash in September yet you are NOT short ...why. If you feel that a crash is coming you MAY miss It no ? what happened to big picture positioning.
ReplyDeleteSC...we are going down to revisit the June lows without you. LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteIf the current highs hold on TVIX and UVXY we have a very strong outside reversal week.
ReplyDeleteI have a big picture chart coming for UVXY.
DeletePerched on the edge of the cliff, but not quite time yet imo. A couple more gyrations first.
DeleteVIX didn't trade any higher today than yesterday, and this week only went 50 cents above the orange arrow Cycle high.
ReplyDeleteThe pop after the hollow candle low in the VIX Cycle was a lower high in the Cycle, but VIX did see a slight higher high of 50 cents from last week. I don't see that changing anything. The model still looks good.
Quite frankly there are too many bears around right now. The opposite from early Aug.
ReplyDeletesc, how high it can go, 1680 or new high
ReplyDeleteVery unlikely for the Dow. Yet, a new high looks quite possible for some indexes.
Deletegap 1660,1680
ReplyDelete"SCAugust 28, 2013 at 8:01 AM
ReplyDeleteQuite frankly there are too many bears around right now. The opposite from early Aug."
Are you kidding?
CPCE closed quite low despite prices behaving poorly over the past many weeks. Very complacent and no sign of panic.
That CPCE reading was pretty clearly an error. At 0.34, it was by far the lowest value I've ever seen, and after displaying it for a few hours, the CBOE web site removed it and displayed an error message instead.
DeleteHy, Sc I think you should take a stand for the crash of September. We are at August 29 ... . Thinking of entering the day before is somewhat difficult. Expect this crash for 2 years and surely it is better to anticipate a few days and take short positions strongly, instead of 2 years and anticipate approximately 400 points SP500 .
ReplyDeleteSPX has held quite well around this level for a week now.
ReplyDeleteNot yet. Important to let this VIX Cycle continue to play out.
ReplyDeletewhat do you see SC for VIX from here today? going down or up?
ReplyDeleteThanks
According to the VIX Cycle, VIX should grind lower for weeks next.
DeleteTvix & Uvxy held ......
ReplyDeleteCan't remember the last time VIX short ETF's held up with a rising market. Ths is very significant IMO.
ReplyDeleteUmmmm that was VIX long ETF's of course not short ;)
DeleteI think it is a bearish signal strongly coupled with the fall in oil prices. Tomorrow is the last session of the month and anything can happen, but the signal is strong enough given today.
ReplyDeleteSC, are you going to short metals then? Gold/ silver or both?
ReplyDeleteDo you still expect panic rally in gold?
Thanks.
Once the rally for Silver from the turquoise arrow low completes then Silver should flatten out and consolidate for a while sideways according to the Cycle. That will take months so now Silver may be boring for months.
DeleteThen Silver resumes the bear once again. So yes once the choppy phase is finishing I plan to short Silver.
Gold is a little different story. This Cycle is based on Silver so have to interpret what happens with Gold. I think Gold may be due for a short term dip, but may still rise further in the months ahead.
DeleteSc, is it not possible that VIX orange arrow top was June 24 and we spent july/august grinding down lower with red arrow bottom hit last week?
ReplyDeleteI am considering whether the red arrow may have occurred in mid-Aug. If the VIX goes much higher then it will have support around 13.50 to 14.
DeleteWe'll see how things shape up next.
DeleteI am believe that usd/chf is very bear and eur/usd strong bull in next months maybe more 1.5 year trend think know study.
DeleteThis like are bull by silver in theory but your cycle is bear in silver to finish 2014 or more time.
june 2001 to 2003 summer was very bull in eur/usd and not much in silver,choppy.
I AM BELIEVE that silver can not down 15$ in next 18 months if eur7usd not down in trend.
Bye.
Sc, I am pondering a scenario where a relief rally happens going into Fed meeting to one week or so after the Fed meeting to around Sept 25 bringing 1750+ or so on S&P. Let's say if this is the case, looking at your cycles, what could you say about greater decline after this rally, if there are chances of it happening during October/November timeframe, and if there are such chances, what would be the upside potential in terms of percentage for UVXY if one gets into it say by Sept 25. Thanks so much!
ReplyDeleteYes agree. Top out SPX in Sept, and down huge. I think UVXY will retest the low around $32 maybe a little lower. Once that occurs then UVXY targets $160 to $200.
DeleteSC, if the red arrow have occurred in mid-Aug, according to the cycle chart, VIX would now shoot over the orange high, 21 area back in June?
ReplyDeleteThis rally in the market should persist for a while. I'll do an update on the Cycle soon.
DeleteThe next week maybe monday and tuesday like down in stocks Dow,Wtic,Brent this two can have Big up,"Syria war" brent to 120 or more.In september,trend easy up in rally to 1 week october level 130?Then time more weak wtic.Dow should not loser levels 24 june this year.
ReplyDeleteI am thinking a time weak global begun december to february in eur/usd,here can are you next cycle bear in silver.
April 2014 is very time weak in stockmarket before rally may-june... Sell Dow this month.
Stockmarket not like crash 40%-60% before 2017 .
Bond market is not easy but i am seeing price down next 2 years and siderway crazy up-down rangue.10 years tnx rate more wish run to rates 5 that 2 not bad ,rates up in sprin cycle bull market.
I think we need to consider a continuation and acceleration to the downside in the broader market starting next week.
ReplyDeleteWhilst there may be a lot of analysts looking for lower lows and bearish sentiment prevailing, it pretty much appears to me that every man and his dog is looking for a bounce from here into September before a resumption of the down trend and yet when I look at the market I see paltry rebounds of lower lows right through August.
I am looking for test of the rising lower channel from 2011 around 14250 next week.
Cheers
Very BULL stockmarket maybe mercury sun conjuction killed the bears.They like dream lost 14.600 level Dow Jones but not lost her wallet.
ReplyDeleteStockmarket like bull to november,wtic,brent...War chemical is very DANGUER in the next year.If the weapon is used in mass vx nervously extended to the European continent and escalation of the war to another level, the economy the very volatile bag scares. High risk. After November and as we bring the situation near to April, 2014 it deteriorates and in April great danger tension.World can to go crazy.
SC
ReplyDeleteAny update on Uvxy?
Yes, I have a chart coming today for it. I think this rally for SPX starting and will persist for weeks.
DeleteI think VIX cools but support for VIX in the 13's range.
DeleteSC
DeleteIs it possible you can post where you think we are at on the SnP chart or SPY? Thanks, s
Yes, update is coming.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteWhen you planning to put your update? why board is so quite?
Thanks
Yes, I have a chart coming today. Not much action lately - 3 weeks of sideways chop for the market.
ReplyDeletetoday is today! where is the update SC? LOL...hoping to see it before today's close to make a decision...
ReplyDeleteSC, I just wanted to communicate my stance after careful observation that the market looks prime for sell off early next week and will stabilize Thu, Fri next week. Then I will look for a rise into Fed meeting on Wed 18th, which will be disappointment as Fed will likely stay put, follow the same course and market can finish the remaining correction to end the month of September. That will be two months of correction sufficient with time length. I am looking for SPX to 1575 to end this correction in this scenario which looks very probable now. If this happens, I will be looking to go long beginning of October for a spectacular rise. Thanks!
ReplyDelete