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Sunday, October 13, 2013

$VIX - Cycle 1 Approaching Red Arrow

VIX is likely approaching the red arrow low in the Cycle.  The red arrow low should form late this month possibly in the 13's. 

VIX bottomed mid-March and has been making higher lows since that time.  In the Cycle, the red arrow low is anticipated to be another higher low for VIX.

VIX has been flirting with longer term trend lines of resistance going back to 2008.       

60min Chart
















VIX Cycle 1:














95 comments:

  1. Longer term charts are also coming for VIX.

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    Replies
    1. These will show the red and white trendlines.

      Delete
  2. VIX popped quite strongly on that last move. After the red arrow low, VIX should run to 35-40 area. Judging by the Cycle could see spikes up to 70-80 range for VIX after that.

    Can make initial estimates for timing with the measured boxes. More on that later.

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  3. SC,

    We have seen a higher high on the vix... aren't we more to the right of the red arrow?

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    Replies
    1. VIX did see a higher high, but the behaviour is consistent with the Cycle. What I mean is that on the last pop, VIX spiked up and fell right back again. Same as the Cycle. So even though it did see the higher high, I am confident that VIX is dipping into the red arrow Cycle low.

      After that things will get more interesting...

      Delete
    2. You mean instead of Vix spiking to 20 and crashing it should just keep moving to 35-40

      In which case UVXY would enter into backwardation and hit your 160$ target,...

      So SC, is it final chance to load up on uvxy?

      Delete
    3. Yes, that is correct. From the next low, VIX should keep rising to the 35-40 range, steady up according to the Cycle.

      Waiting for the red arrow low to form, and yes, I expect this to set up a nice opportunity for UVXY.

      Delete
  4. This is the last week VIX has a chance to break over 200dma and hold..hold. And even after that going into mid 20s will be hard if not impossible. Most likely below 13 next, and 11. And boring after that.

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  5. Seems all but a given the suits in DC will come up with some kind of deal and the markets shoot higher.

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    Replies
    1. Of course there will be a last minute deal and of course the very large majority expects the market to shoot higher, except that the majority are usually wrong.
      600 Pts on the non-industrials in 3 days?

      Welcome to bizzaro world!

      Delete
    2. I agree. Any rally should be short lived at this point in time.

      Delete
  6. I read on another Blog that another $5Billion on QE money is going into the markets today as well. Seems it's getting harder and harder for any kind of market correction to happen when so much printed money is going into the markets

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  7. sc You do not believe in a Lehman 2.0?
    What is your macro view on the us ? many hanks

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    Replies
    1. Currently in my models we are nearing the start of the P crash. The P crash is serious but the models show the market recovering afterwards. However, the Z crash is the one that everyone will realize that the market is simply doomed.

      The current financial system is mature, and will not work in the future. Austerity nor stimulus will provide a solution to a long term debt problem.

      Delete
  8. Hi SC

    You sure we didnt already made a "near" touch of that red arrow? VIX hitting 18+ today...or you still seeing us hitting that VIX low near end of Oct?

    Thanks!

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  9. Goodnight VIX. Sleep tight until next winter. 12.5 next. 11...

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  10. Beautiful. Would like to see at least 13 to 13.50 and review at that level.

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  11. P crash? Z crash? Sc can you post these charts again...not sure where to find them. Thks!

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  12. http://tradetherightsidealertz.wordpress.com/

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  13. I'll say it again, the markets can't go down with QE pumping billions into them. Add to it all the mutual funds buying at the begining of every month because 401k investors want their returns. How can there ever be any meaningful sell off?

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  14. Usd/chf sell ,money gift,longuer time down,when lost 0.89 maybe 0.40 or more down around april 2015.HELL BEAR USD/CHF.
    EUR/USD LIKE up strong to 1.80 or more before may 2015.
    GBP/USD,AUD/USD,NZD/USD bull to april 2015.
    From april-may 2015 to finish 2016 choppy market in everest usd/chf,maybe begin 2017 year the $ kill began Resurrection of the zombie ,rising few a few.
    A short time maybe 22-23 october danguer days. Down in wti,dow,dax,but this like upstrong from 23 october to 6-9 november.
    Bye...

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  15. GOLD

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  16. No crash. You have been wrong. No VIX support at 13. Next 11.xx

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  17. VIX Red arrow low? If 12.50 breached does this invalidate the chart?

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  18. Let's see how things settle for VIX over the next week or so. I expected at least 13's and here we are. Maybe could see a little lower yet though.

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    Replies
    1. UVXY is forming some sort of bottom...no sign of a buy signal as of this date/time...

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  19. Sc very accurate on calling VIX tops/ corrections. Did so at vix 21 & 18 2 days ago... Not quite as accurate calling bottoms ( or maybe the bottoms take longer to materialise... Meanwhile uvxy continues to languish & decay) vix up 16% and uvxy only 12 instead of 32% if it really was a double tracking ETF! )


    This will change if/when UVXY enters backwardation and VIX over 35 for few weeks instead of thsese 2 day pops. Uvxy will quckly recover several months of loss just as TVIX recovered $15 to $118 in 6 weeks back in 2011.

    Meantime VXX & XIV are good plays and dont decay as much.

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    Replies
    1. payday UVXY does NOT track spot vix it tracks vix futures .....

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    2. I know....doesnt do it very well either.

      Delete
  20. SC - I know you have been mentioning the crash scenario for a while now, but is it even possible under these circumstances of constant manipulation and flooding the markets with printed money?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it'll happen. The market is following the Cycle. Crashes never seem obvious and that is why they occur. Bulls are pretty much all in.

      Delete
  21. Joe D - You seem to have an uncanny level of accuracy in timing key turns. I think you have mentioned before that you focus primarily on time and don't worry too much about price targets, but do you see this constant pumping of money ensuring that we will never see the 2008 lows again, or even a reasonable bear-market-like correction at best in the near future?

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  22. Vix in 12's.....sorry SC but I think your cycles are broken... No way VIX hits 40 this year. Up 30% on XIV this week alone...

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    Replies
    1. But this fact alone doesn't prove that his system is incorrect (yet). He said that VIX will keep going down after a small spike till the end of Oct. Some ppl questioned that when the spike took place. But now, it did go down. The more it drops, the more likely it will bounce hard, IMO. Let's see how it goes. Pls don't trash his prediction just yet.

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    2. yeah, I know what you're trying to say. we are all learning to do it better, so is SC. At least I was doing it fine recently by referring to his prediction recently. I of course hope that its accuracy level will be maintained as sky high and that the crash will come sooner. But I'll do my dd before I make any investment decision. I won't blame him if the crash doesn't take place in Nov/Dec cuz he did it free of charge. He doesn't owe us anything. Just take it easy and let go.

      Delete
  23. SPX reaching the pink arrow Cycle high soon. Market is running out of time and price.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      confused when you say market running out of time and price...how is price related to this? isnt it all time driven?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  24. Since VIX is trading just under the pink line, my feeling is that it probably will find some resistance around that line in the short term. That'll keep the lid on it for a little while...

    That is why I'll wait until next week to take positions.

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  25. "The Dude" wasn't that a movie --- Yup it was - "The Big Lebowski" featuring Jeff Bridges as "The Dude". You've made it to Hollywood SC - people are starting to refer to you as "The Dude".
    Congratulations...

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  26. Sc,
    How close do you believe we are to the red arrow? Seems uvxy is close to a bottom. Thanks!

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  27. John - you must refer to SC as "The Dude"

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  28. I can't believe that anybody still believes this bull#*^+ that spews from the BLS.
    The problem they are crwting for themselves is that one day nobody will have confidence in any statistics they or the Government release.
    And confidence once lost is extremely difficult to restore.

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  29. Sc, can u please post some new charts, comments,updates

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  30. The VIX is just luring you in by holding 13. There will be a day soon where you can see 10.xx and a brief 9.xx. Stay away from it please! Warning!! This blog may become irrelevant...in my humble opinion... until late January. Short term 1770s next with possible 20 point pullbacks if you're lucky.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Complaceny nearing record lows and stock prices nearing the second most most overvalued in history. We keep hearing how the majors are flush with funds but fail to hear how they are loaded to the hilt in debt. In fact the highest debt to equity ratio in history.

      G and especially junk bonds are the biggest bubble in history and equities are not far behind.
      I'll bet now that in three months the VIX is much closer to triple figures than single figures ;)

      Delete
  31. MARKETS

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  32. Where is "The Dude" and where is "The Dude's" charts????

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  33. The dude is kicking himself for being a bear since 2011. Imagine if he just bought every dip instead of tops, crash, bear, it's over, pain, armageddon, etc.

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  34. SC is not a liar - he is "The Dude" and his projections are about to come true

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    Replies
    1. What about this projection?

      Friday, January 4, 2013
      SPY - Crash Pattern Continues - Deja Vu Cycle

      A major crash of the scale that this Cycle predicts for 2013 is extremely rare. The Cycle predicts a measured decline of approximately 460 points to 1025 SPX during the first half of 2013. This represents an initial 31% measured decline potential for the market.

      Delete
    2. If the weatherman predicts rain on Monday and it does not rain until Thursday does that mean the weatherman is a liar. No, inaccurate maybe but certainly not a liar. Being a liar implies intentional deceit. Not the case here at all.
      deceit.

      Delete
  35. Hi SC

    Is the cycle work still valid at this point? it has been 1 week delay almost by the time tomorrow comes, have not heard from you entering your position, while it predicted we were suppose to touch the red arrow last week.


    Cheers!

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  36. While we wait for SC to re-appear a little history of the term "The Dude".

    For some time now, we have known the basic outline of the story of “dude.” The word was first used in the late 1800s as a term of mockery for young men who were overly concerned with keeping up with the latest fashions. It later came to stand for clueless city folk (who go to dude ranches) before it morphed into our all-purpose laid-back label for a guy. What we didn’t know was why the word dude was chosen in the first place.

    Now, we finally have the answer. Allan Metcalf (who wrote the book on “OK”) reports in The Chronicle of Higher Education that a massive, decade-long “dude” research project has finally yielded convincing results.

    The project belongs to Barry Popik and Gerald Cohen, described by Metcalf as “googlers before there was Google.” Along with the help of other colleagues, they have been combing through 19th century periodicals for years, slowly amassing the world’s biggest collection of dude citations. The latest issue of Cohen’s journal, Comments on Etymology, lays out, in 129 pages, the most solidly supported account yet of the early days of dude.

    So where does dude come from? Evidence points to “doodle,” as in “Yankee Doodle Dandy.” He’s the fellow who, as the song has it, “stuck a feather in his cap and called it macaroni.” “Macaroni” became a term for a dandy in the 18th century after young British men returned from their adventures on the European continent sporting exaggerated high-fashion clothes and mannerisms (along with a taste for an exotic Italian dish called “macaroni”). The best a rough, uncultured colonist could do if he wanted to imitate them was stick a feather in his cap.

    “For some reason,” Metcalf says, “early in 1883, this inspired someone to call foppish young men of New York City ‘doods,’ with the alternate spelling ‘dudes’ soon becoming the norm.” Some of the early mocking descriptions of these dudes seem awfully familiar today: “A weak mustache, a cigarette, a thirteen button vest/A curled rim hat—a minaret—two watch chains cross the breast.” Yep, sounds like a hipster. But that word has gotten so stale. We should all go back to “dood,” or maybe even “doodle.”



    Read the full text here: http://mentalfloss.com/article/53317/whats-origin-word-dude#ixzz2ikSBWcPC
    --brought to you by mental_floss!

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  37. I think you will find that the difficulty SC has had in timing is due to the fact that the crash pattern "fractal" is in a different time fram.
    Pin-pointing the current position of the SPX in relation is difficult. That does not mean that it is not unfolding as per the previous pattern, as it certainly does appear to be unfolding to me.

    Where we exactly are is the problem.

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    Replies
    1. Just to add, my best guess is that we are only week/s or even days away from the pink arrow.

      Notice the divergence beginning to emerge in the VIX anyone???

      Delete
  38. SC, I don't know why these guys have nothing better to do than pick on you for posting your trades. You have made some accurate calls and some inaccurate ones, but you have generally been transparent with your trades and market outlook, and you always have something interesting to contribute. I enjoy the blog and hope you will continue to post.

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  39. UVXY is forming a bottom...looking attractive in this price range...daily trading chart is extremely close to signaling a buy...below is a link to an updated weekly chart previously posted...

    http://tinyurl.com/oab3wnt

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    Replies
    1. Hi Rotrot

      This chart looks like it not ever going to not go down like a trend down chart there. Like to know when you say it forming a bottom, are you thinking of a small bump along the way, then continue to go down. Or you seeing forming a bottom bottom and it will go higher now like what SC is thinking?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. The purpose of repeatedly posting the weekly chart was to demonstrate that the trend was down...in turn, why accumulate UVXY...however, there are some signs of a positive divergence on that weekly chart...on the UVXY daily trader chart it is clearly close to signaling a buy...

      Delete
  40. The bulls are everywhere and are very aggressive... that is a good sign.
    After almost a year moving higher WITHOUT a normal correction everybody are great traders next stop 2000. If you mention a correction and you are an idiot, the FED is printing money bla bla nonsense, we will never see a correction any more, sentiment through the roof:) That is exactly what I want to see....
    I have posted this chart early June after the first peak almost 5 months later the patern repeats itself http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--dscN6jdNGc/Umt4XclP9DI/AAAAAAAADOY/8WQuId5cSUA/s1600/w149-3.png
    The circled area are not there just like that - the preceding rally lasts longer and moves faster than the average one, this leads to excessive greed and its usually purged with sharp correction.
    No this time is not different the next move based on statistic and history is 15%-20% correction. We see now the last missing ingredient - aggressive bullishness. We have a green light for the correction.
    P.S. FOMC is usually a top or a bottom. Open your charts and put the FOMC dates and will see the "magic":) I will till Wednesday

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    Replies
    1. The first chart posted on 4.June if you do not believe me:)
      http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DLJwVSp2sio/UanDpc3eWVI/AAAAAAAACw8/UEhZELfq77M/s1600/w131-3.png
      Pretty close I would say.... Five months later I do not see why it should be different.

      Delete
  41. Insiders selling at their highest level in ove a decade. Margin debt at record level. Time magazine publishing bullish article after bullish article and not to mentmion their bull cover images.

    This is top area.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Dow,dax and others index like up to 15 november before a few weak,maybe december weak month,january more weak situation and february hard down.20 january to 21 february time bear and down in stockmarket.Maybe like after 21-24 february 2014 rally strong to finish 2014.Specially here sensational weak danguer october-december 2014 but market force,nothing should happened.October 2014 Dow in 18.000-20.000 points easy.
    Began 2014 down and weak,but is few probably have Crash and more bears happy in frebruary will are out game after,poors.
    Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  43. SC on vacation? Odd no comments for several days..

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  44. SC may show up on Nov 4 according to his chart. red circle range for the red arrow low target. If not, then it pretty much over, since there is solid chart showing exact date range.

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  45. UVXY daily trader chart signaled a buy yesterday...however, suspect the bottoming process could continue into the week of November 11...

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    Replies
    1. Hi Rotrot

      Are you seeing what SC is seeing with UVXY exploding then after this week of Nov 11?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Dude, you must be be short & getting burned. Don't worry, there's a nice pullback started already.

      Delete
    3. Yeah that's right Dude - you what I mean Dude - right on Dude- that's so heavy Dude.

      Delete
    4. pb

      Please refer to him as "dudetttttt" or dudeeeee" save DUDE for "OF WORTH PPL"

      Delete
  46. If you are considering using SC's system, please paper trade for 1 full year before deciding if his system works for you. Good luck traders.

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  47. You're bring me down man with all these negative waves - just think something positive about "The Dude".

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  48. SC, Are you there or left the site?

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    Replies
    1. Hey Stockboom

      got the same question, SC should been here today though since the chart shows today should be the last day or maybe tomorrow last day for VIX to bottom with the red arrow, VIX chart above. Atleast hear SC mention he add more UVXY consider we hit that red arrow.

      If not, maybe he has left the site, cause there is no more updates after the red arrow mark

      Thanks!

      Delete
  49. *as a sporadic lurker here, it remains bizarre how many still don't get the decay issue with the TVIX/UVXY.

    The notion of 'accumulating' any of the leveraged instruments is crazy. Sure, they can give great gains across a few days..or a week or two..but there all collapse to near zero across a few months.
    --

    As for SC... I'm sure he is out there.

    Equity bears should generally take 4-6 months, and return ...refreshed late spring 2014.

    Maybe that is what he is doing :)

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    Replies
    1. So you are saying you are long and holding? Good luck through this correction! s

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    2. Hi Syd

      what correction? we been going up and up and up for the entire year. and now we are heading to major holiday shopping season with "santa rally" everywhere. correction maybe delayed till spring next year at this rate.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. So you are saying you are long and holding or buying more?

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    4. My response was correction in the SnP!

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    5. PD, that depends upon bull market or bear market. No decay issue with XIV for the last few years. Those short VIX via ETF's have done very well.
      I suspect if that reverses then thos holding TVIX and UVXY will do very well too.

      Delete
  50. Permabear really ought to change his blog name to PERMABULL since he's bullish upto 2100 spx or thereabouts.

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  51. Funny, how SC's followers blast all the bulls on this board. Last I check we are at 1760. 700 points above the target of 1025 for the 2013.

    Sure, there are corrections, but buying the dips or just hold were the way to play since 2009.

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  52. UVXY...today might prove to be a very good day to buy!

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    Replies
    1. Hi Rotrot

      Are you basing this on the bullishness of this blog? :)


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. So INVEST are saying you are long and holding or buying more Snp/Stock market?

      Delete
    3. i doubt there will be any significant correction until an event happen is my take and that is an if still consider all that regulation put in place...we will have minor or major pullback...but to have a free fall type of correction we need an event like maybe china went broke...just play the daily moves for now.....day trade only...

      look at it this way...the worst we will drop is to zero which is less than 2000k points...but there is no ceiling limit in sight yet...so play your move if you want to hold...

      my longer term account is buying no matter what, that is a decades upon decades of years in holding...if we do correct or pullback it just means cheaper….

      Delete
    4. Invest

      I see! No I am flat the stock market with all accounts and short in here for a swing trade into the next buy move! Good luck, s

      Delete
    5. Hi Syd

      Yeah, that is probably a good move right now, just use stop and let the position ride up or down.

      Just careful also with index trade, lot more manipulation.


      Thanks!

      Delete