Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Looks like SPX may poke just above the pink line again here, then ready for a dip.VIX continuing to rise up to test near the 15 spot I've been mentioning.
In a way it seems SPX is following the Nikkei. Nikkei bottomed early June, and SPX bottomed late June. Nikkei plunged last 3 days, and SPX plunges.....
I realize UVXY is based on the futures pricing but any explanation for the significant discrepancy when $VIX moves from low 12's to low 14's (>16%) in one week, yet UVXY remains relatively unchanged to even slightly lower lows??? And is it not 2x leveraged performance too? Baffled.
Vix over 14 and UVXY cant break 39??? Wtf?
It's a slow market, but VIX looks to be setting up for a better pop soon. In July 2011 TVIX was very sluggish initially to move relative to the VIX. It was a sign of extreme complacency.
UVXY does reliably track the VIX short-term futures index on a daily basis. The best explanation I can give of UVXY's performance here is that VIX futures are not rising (despite the rise in spot VIX) because no one is convinced this selloff will last. I would take it as a sign of complacency.
as well, we are rolling into the next contract day by day, which means much more downside potentially if the market doesn't drastically drop like I thought it would into August 8th.
SSNO offense but with so many new road maps and no technical backup, you would end up in Italy going to Chicago! lol
Even once the market does roll over, the VIX should not move all that aggressively until after the 1540 horizontal level breaks for SPX. SPX has bounced numerous times from that level in recent months, but the Cycle only shows a small bounce next time that level is tested and a plunge down through it. That is when the panic should occur.
Is this before or after a spx move over 1700?
Once this rally is complete, then down to break the red horizontal is next.
SC - If Uncle Ben juices the market up tomorrow do you seen the S&P going past 1710 / Will you cover your shorts?
I'm not trading anything short term right now so simply plan to hold positions. We'll just have to see how it shapes up next. False breaks often occur in either direction in these churning situations.
NYSI and NASI joined BPCOMPQ...all are negative...
I'm sure SC will be right with regards to the fall back to 1500-1550 but the question is from what level? Rather than trying to pick the top which is a mathematical impossibility, I would just focus on the NOW & stay present with what the mkt is telling us.The chart looks bullish until proved otherwise, then its time to short.As for the UVXY, its a decaying beast which is designed to fall 10% per month. To stand & buy when the mkt is going up is just stupidity. Trading is all about ironing out the stupid mistakes & staying present. Our time will come soon when UVXY will be a buy but not yet...you can't buy them at the bottom but you can participate in a strong rally in my humble opinion.
Phil - have you closed your UVXY position or are you waiting to see what today's events bring first?
closed it ages ago....20% lower now. I'm up $30,000 in UVXY this year trading the decaying beast but that's only 4 trades. No technical analysis at the moment until we bottom. I'll be buying next after initial big jump of 20% in one day.
Sorry the trading position I closed at 47ish...I was long at 48ish.The position I bought with no stop at 42 I still have but it's really small to be honest hence no stop. I'm expecting a worst case $10 fall that's why. I only do that 2-3x a year but the risk is always small.I won't buy until we see a good rally in the stock & I NEVER add to a losing position, that's another example of stupidity.
SC, I have a question on timing.On your "Crash Cycle" chart above, if you count bars from low to high, you get 9 bars of rally. Then it takes 12 descending bars to reach the bottom.By mid-August it will have been 7 weeks of rally (June 24 to mid-August). If the decline lasts 12/9 (1.33x) as long as the rally - as it did in your Crash Cycle chart - that would imply a 9-week decline into mid-October. That is somewhat longer than the late August/early September timeframe you've been mentioning.Does that sound reasonable, or do you not expect the relative durations to match your crash cycle chart?Thanks!
It makes sense and is reasonable to measure the timing with the bars in the Cycle. However, I noticed that the decline for SPX from June 19th to the June 24th low was very fast. The rallies have been slow grinds and the drops faster relative to the Cycle. I'm still seeing a deeper retracement soon and a slow grinding rally. So the rally should take weeks longer, but still due to retrace first and soon. Once it finishes in August, the drop should be very fast.
SC,As the market keeps staying up at this level does the possibility increase that this is wave 5 instead of 3?Thanks!
No, I don't believe SPX has retraced enough yet. Therefore, this is likely the 3 finally finishing.I think SPX tests near the 50dma on a retracement soon. VIX still setting up to pop.
VIX UP, XIV UP, UVXY down... I see another VIX retest of the 12's, XIV 30, UVXY 30 within next 2 weeks
SC, not sure why your UVXY trade is not working out this time. I've never seen XiV stay so far above its 50 ema for so long. Now XIV moving UP with the VIX?! Very bizzare behavior imo.
It is getting very stretched. I think UVXY hits bottom next few days and snaps up. VIX looks like it can settle a little for a few days but overall heading up for 15-16 soon.
Even if vix hits 15-16, uvxy will have difficulty surpassing 45Yesterday vix even and uvxy down 2%Today vix up 2% and uvxy down further 2%Crazy! Uvxy cant even meet par let alone 2x performance.No doubt SC you have faith in the 160 call you made last month but seems more &more impossible now!
UVXY is sluggish at the moment, but performs best after VIX has already been rising for a while - at higher levels of VIX. VIX may have already bottomed a week ago with a stealth move higher.
VIX looks very strong - overall just keeps floating up. It can bounce around but watch to see if it does follow through and break up to around 16. Then it would have support in the 13-14 range.
UVXY tracks VIX futures, and rolls into the next contract after that as the month goes on. So cash VIX being up does not mean UVXY has to be up, as we are seeing today.
Is there ever a scenario that could make VIX futures shoot up 100% overnite?I read an article about how if that ever happened then XIV would drop 90%... Not sure how thats even mathmatically possible...and i doubt uvxy would shoot up 200% either.
Improbable with large markets but it is possible in a freak move. Those moves tend to happen overnight with individual stocks.
Hy guys this is the index under TVIX , UVXY and XIV New 52 weeks low today , new low TVIX .UVXY and XIV . IT'S QUITE SIMPLE...http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spvxsp.id/charts?CountryCode=xx
Hy Sc, could you post a chart of SPVXSP index futures . This index quoted 22.000 October 2011 AND NOW QUOTE 1400...... Thanks a lot.
VIX to 11.5 then 10.XX next. UVXY obliterated in short term...most likely. Won't recover very well.
VIX heading for 15-16 next and SPX retracement, but UVXY is certainly weak for the moment. It's all supportive evidence for the Cycle wave 4.
SC, I say based on POMO schedule operations in August and September ($45B/month) even with minor correction or set back (negligible) for major indices, we move higher overall into end of September (after September 18 fed meeting) to 1790-1800; Bull market top. So, Gold, Silver, Oil and all commodities also go for the strong bear market rally until around that time as inflationary and short covering impact.I think that would be a wise strategy to play this.So, bumps ahead but higher overall is what I am anticipating.
My plan is the same. SPX struggling at the pink line resistance and due to retrace for the wave 4. I see the wave 5 finishing in Aug.
SC, if you think this is still a wave 3, why are you preticting a crash? Wave 4 would take us to 1620 & wave 5 to 1800! That's a lot of upside in your scenario & UVXY will be 20 by then.
SPX is due for retracement in the Cycle and there is little upside since at the yellow arrow. I don't see a wave 5 taking SPX anywhere near those levels. This rally is finishing. VIX looks to be already rising.
Most importantly right now SPX is due to drop, retrace soon. It is finding resistance at the pink line.
SC, Given your scenario with the VIX we can't be in a 3, this is a wave 4 correction with wave 5 finishing around 1710-1740. That best fits the bottoming zone for the VIX + I see the same patterns in EURO, GBP, FTSE, DAX etc etc...We will find out soon enough depending on the next move in the mkts.
Yes, that is what I see too. There is much evidence consistent with wave 4 to drop soon for SPX. VIX setting up to pop within days which would mark the end of the wave 4 for SPX.
Yesterday Brent lost level 106$ and fast up strong,buy down 106$ was a gift.This is little down and more up maybe to september.In october-november to see down in wtic ,brent,gold and index stocks.Eur/usd is began little down to 1.30 in agoust before up strong september but i am believe this pair is very bull to 2015.I can not to see a Crash in next 2 years around markets,but...Regards.
Looks like the wave 4 is done....now we just need the VIX back to extreme levels again over the next couple of weeks while this wave 5 works its self out.Would love to see UVXY in the high 20's on this push up...
Wave 4 down for SPX coming next.
SCAre you talking about a daily chart? Can you show a chart with your count as this looks like 4 is in! Tx!
Basically the last few points of the 3 is just finishing and the 4 down is about to start.
Similar to the plunge Nikkei made over the last week, SPX is about to plunge for the 4 down.
SCIf you could post your count it would clear things up! WAVE 5 looks in!
your insane... WHAT IF we rally 50 handles from here your UVXY will be at 15 ...
SC, I think we are talking different wave 4's here....I was referring to the minor 4 that is complete & now a minor 5 up to 1710-1740 to finish the entire move.YES - after that we finally get a decent move down in what should be a primary wave 4.What level does the VIX need to hold in this move up?
The minor 4 is about to start, then the minor 5.VIX is setting up to spike soon - a few days, and it'll spike. It'll hold in the 12.50ish area imo and up to 15-16.SPX is having difficulty holding a gain from May. Struggling around the pink line. I think SPX will plunge similar to the move Nikkei just made over the last week.
"...since the 1974 low, key highs and lows have taken place every 13-years." (1974 - 1987 - 2000 - 2013?} http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/dow13yearcyclehereagainjuly301.jpg
No S&P plunge. Vix 11.5 next. Then 11 and below briefly. After that should be a boring market remainder of 3rd quarter. No major Vix spikes up or down. UVXY just a broken tool now :(
Sure enough SPX did poke up above the pink line, and soon drop. VIX strong.SCJuly 30, 2013 at 7:31 AM"Looks like SPX may poke just above the pink line again here, then ready for a dip.VIX continuing to rise up to test near the 15 spot I've been mentioning."
SC, I'm confused with your analysis now....how can the minor 4 be about to start? We had that last week....this is clearly a wave 5 up.
Just to be clear I don't count waves. I rarely even use the term waves because it is Cycle moves that I am referring to not EW.In the Cycle we are still just churning around the yellow arrow. There is a retracement (drop) for SPX due in the Cycle which I have also called the wave 4. Just so people can relate better to it.VIX is holding strong currently which is evidence in support of the Cycle, and also indicates that a plunge is coming in the short term.
In EW this would be the 5th of 3 finishing. Wave 4 due, then SPX will have a base to rally for 5. SPX has no momentum here, needs to drop first, then can rally again. VIX agrees with this.
If we do get a decent correction here, that will set up an even bigger rally to 1800 by year end.Let's see what the mkt tells us then!
I don't see it being ready for correction at all. Just a dip short term.
dude, the only thing you have going for the short case is the humongous negative divergence across the board. this will cause a significant correction here. best way is to trail your long stops and start shorting on the break.shorting just for the sake of it can cause significant financial damage, as we can see with your uvxy.
Sc. How does one come to know. 5 of 3 has completed.Suppose at the end if the day. All gains evaporate what does that mean. They won't do it today as all over the news it will be new highs for sp
I think might see SPX hang in for a day or two then drop.
Might see near the 50dma for SPX short term that is about it. 1650 is the level I have been mentioning.
Down to 1650 then back up to test the highs then the bottom drops out?
Hi SCRecall, you mention your target for UVXY was 160 ish for the first drop. Is that still valid? Reason asking cause a drop of 50 point from current level feel like UVXY will be lucky to get back to 50 right now.Thanks!
Still the same. 50 SPX points won't do much for UVXY. The VIX will go wild when SPX drops down through the 1540 horizontal level.
Hi SCSo will you be holding to this losing trade if we hit 1650, consider we will go back to test the high?Thanks!
To summarize my current trades are long Silver and Gold which are in a profit position, and I would consider taking profit if they rise further short term. S&P short would be profitable at 1650 and may look to cover there and reload short again soon afterwards.We'll see what UVXY does when VIX pops to the 15's I have been mentioning.
Let me see.... vIx 15 should equal uvxy 33 if the last few days any indication. vIX up or down doesnt matter....uvxy always down and more down Only good trade is XIV. Buy every drop below 20 and sell every pop above 25
Hi SC, you're still gunning for 1600+ for Gold, right?
Yes, if Gold moves a little higher I think I may just book the profit and see if it settles back a bit, then reload long again. Still lots of upside overall imo. Yes, 1600+.
Much bigger move up coming than I originally thought. 1680 floor for all pullbacks to come in weeks ahead. This is bordering on euphoria...and the up move will be intimidating at the very least. VIX moves below 12 tomorrow. No question in my mind, 11 will not hold. Don't try and apply waves and cycles to a market that prices LNKD stock at 223 after hours. Up up up. No down :(Gold will move below 1300 tomorrow.
Can you show something to back your claims..........so you are a buyer here?
You just saw consolidating. Now up. There goes gold to 1280s.Other than key support levels ....why use fictitious waves cycles derived from past performance.....to forecast future? Instinct works just as well.I think this blog is incorrect in its ...instinct and calls. Its going against momentum.
I'm not sure if the rally is that robust BC ... not enough volume here to reflect euphoria and it doesn't seem like there is widespread buying of this all time high. Yields on the 10 year treasury are the wild card and they've gone up significantly - I think that creates a high risk for the SPX sustaining the current levels.
When the stockmarket down hard,if you play should have odds good or nothing.Time is the king,when DOW or DAX can have a CRASH?NOT MISTERY HERE,you have information and know odds perfect in this scenary,play strong then.90% odds to see hard down in stockmarket is time between:February 2021 to december 2021.Like to bear jupiter uranus square and mercury venus conjuction,began and end.Remember benner cycle said panic 2021 year,i do not believe that fail. 17 january to 30 december 2021 is hell down,crash,hard down,Panic!90%2021 PANIC!Other time danguer maybe this year 22 agoust top market but not hard down from here alone correction,finally this year november -december other time few bull in stockmarket,but this is not time Danguer Crash.This. have 5% odss like crash,not play this best Vegas .50%'40% down from top is rare happen.More to left like time down maybe around medium mercury retrograde 17 february to april 2014,stockmarket weak but odds crash little.Then time weak between two cycles period desviation with sigma like 2013 november-april 2014.Regards.
Well 1680 will hold!! Who cares about low volume or RSI divergence at the moment. Its ignored by buyers.
I have a VIX Cycle coming. It shows why I have been saying VIX to rise to 15-16 short term and why this is a fake breakout. More importantly, it also shows right when the peak for SPX is due and also when the crash occurs.
VIX is close to that support area today. This level is from the Cycle.SCAugust 1, 2013 at 6:04 AM"VIX is setting up to spike soon - a few days, and it'll spike. It'll hold in the 12.50ish area imo and up to 15-16."
SC, all due respect but you have been calling for a crash since 2011, instead month after month SnP pushed higher. You cant tell us now here that this is it, it may still take months.Trend is our friend until its no more.You timing is not there SC.
The Cycle has been positive since June when SPX tested near the red horizontal level. What I have said is that when this rally from June peaks, the Cycle does show the crash occurring.
with all due respect but the bull market would end in December 2011 .. 400 points ago ..... the year 2012 was supposed to be a process of top ... , and 20% of this increase in 2013 was not to just be there. That said, the current bull market is one of the most powerful in the history and not having ridden him since 2012 is one of the worst mistakes I've ever made.with best regards.
That is true, however SC the $48 uvxy entry 3 wks ago is down 30% and continues to deteriorate no matter what vix does.I do not see how the 160$ uvxy call is mathmatically possible unless vix spikes to 40++Even IF (big IF) that were to occur, the $1450 call is insane...spx would need to drop below 1000 and vix over 80+ maintained for at least several months. I do not see it. Sorry.Best to stay nimble and use XIV instead. xIV will never get to zero unlike uvxy!
VIX ready for its below 12 move now.Get out of this market's way. LNKD 237, FB 38.xxAlthough this blog is free ..it lends itself to criticism!1660 was its original upside call. Begging you not to tell readers UVXY going to 160. Impossible now.
1660 was 100 points from 1560. It's still a decent call. Since then I have said that the Cycle is still positive.
I'm going to post the VIX Cycle this weekend. It'll be helpful. SPX is still weeks from peaking, but yes it's going to be ugly when it does.
SC, Could you please show us where the yellow arrow at this moment in the spx crash cycle is situated? At the right side of the yellow arrow are 3 blue candles. Are we now arrived in the second or third arrow?
No SPX still trading in that yellow arrow candle. There has been no significant retracement yet.
Oke, But what I don't understand is:Why do you have bought UVXY around 48?How much more downside UVXY do you expect in wave 5 (spx)?
It was too early for UVXY. I have a plan for UVXY though. Will explain with the VIX chart. I do expect to see VIX pop to 13.50 soon.
Why not state right now when the peak for the SPX is, and when the crash occurs. Dates.SCAugust 2, 2013 at 6:08 AMI have a VIX Cycle coming. It shows why I have been saying VIX to rise to 15-16 short term and why this is a fake breakout. More importantly, it also shows right when the peak for SPX is due and also when the crash occurs.
Yes, I am going to post that Cycle on the weekend with all the dates.
all over internet, they are about 1750,1775,1800, unless they is an external event this market will keep going up on light volume. I am stuck in tza
I still see a decent retracement down coming for SPX but then still higher in Aug. I'm going to cover shorts on the retracement, and reshort later.
How much higher are you thinking on the second go around, 1750,1775
I'll have estimates coming for that.
The False Move - Martin Armstrong, August 1, 2013http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/01/the-false-move/"The timing arrays are also now lining up with August 7th. This is independent of the ECM and is the collection of 72 models. Thus, as we move close to this target, we also see a Panic Cycle and volatility rising the week after. Capital will begin to shift and start to make its decision. If we see a high on the 7th in the Dow, we may see the classic False Move to the downside for the typical time period of 1 to three units. This is what we may see. A brief correction with all the bears yelling I told you so, then followed by a rally that wipes them out. This market has not peaked yet and it is destined for much higher prices ahead going into 2015.75."
What does "time period of one to three units" mean? Days? Weeks? Months?Also armstrong was all up up up in 2011 and missed the summer/fall correction that year.His record has been good since then though.
From armstrong model charts 1-3 units looks like several months but not specified. I dont think a drop to 1650 is the panic in volatility armstrong is referring to. Must be deeper than that with a vix move over 40... thats PANIC!!!From previous articles its more like the 1987 crash (swift with rapid retracement).I wish armstrong would specify what a time unit is in his analysis.
This is always the problem, it seems in quoting someone when really you do not know for sure, unless it is your own woek what their thought really are! syd
WILL WE COLLAPSE BY AUGUST 2013?Martin Armstrong, August 31, 2012(a year ago he was singing a different tune)http://tinyurl.com/mzc4bpc"...August 7th, 2013 we must be very careful about next year...We may not last until 2015.75 and that could be the complete economic meltdown."
I think SPX is setting up for a similar move to what Nikkei did this month. We're trading in the tight range now that Nikkei was in mid-July, plunge "out of the blue" in about a week. Yes, a "false" downside move that shakes people up. That is the retracement I have been talking about, then the SPX can still see a high after that which is when the bears have the real setup.
1650 on that plunge for SPX.
if 1680 breaks, won't it be start of bigger correction.
BE CAREFUL SAID"Other than key support levels ....why use fictitious waves cycles derived from past performance.....to forecast future? Instinct works just as well.I think this blog is incorrect in its ...instinct and calls. Its going against momentum."BCPOINT TAKEN but then why would you waste your time here, with frequent posts and not just spend that time building your account, since you have the answers?? s
Maybe Brent floor monday red ,then best tuesday to wednesday up .Buy stocks and wtic,brent in tuesday.Not easy to see days down way to november believe.Regards.
when will UVXY reverse split again at 10 or at 5 ??? Not sure
uvxy going to 20
VIX Cycle coming today. VIX should rise back to 13.50 or so next according to this Cycle.
SC,are you still expecting vix 15-16 area on the drop to 1650?
Yes, the VIX Cycle will show that move.
VIX fell from 13 to 12 on Friday with SPX up 1.5 points. Complacency is becoming extreme.
UVXY is a perfect example of why one should never add to a losing position....They now need to go up 50% just to get back to 48!!!
$48 is a good entry for the crash move. To put the math into perspective UVXY was $24,500 in 2011.
UVXY will never get back to $24000 or even $2000....hell $200 seems impossible too.Not sure why you think $48 is a good entry but $33 not as great?
It won't see $2000 again but will make a big bounce. UVXY is cheap down here, as we approach the crash.
The VIX Cycle will be very helpful.
UVXY TANKING ANY COMMENT SC ??
Where is the Vix cycle?Xiv $1 from $30 ... Will swap it out for 1:1 uvxy next few days
The VIX Cycle has been posted.
Can are down time:February-april 2014.Can are soft down trend:November-december 2013.Can have a mini crash:march-april-may 2015.Top aroun 3 months 233 moving average big cycle.This was seen in october-november 2008"CRASH",june-july 2005"lONDON",february -march 2003"IRAK WAR",agoust -september 2011 "HARD DOWN"BIG HAPENED.Can have a hard down:july-october 2015.Moving average 233 down.Can have stockmarket weak ,choppy, down between december 2016-september 2018.Can have a hard down stockmarket and finally BIG CRASH january 2020-december 2021.December 2021 233 moving average in hell same march 2009.But to began 2015 easy little 1 stage and up 2 stage.Regards.