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Sunday, September 8, 2013

UVXY - Mount Everest Cycle First Blue Arrow

Over the summer months, UVXY dropped down and formed the first blue arrow low in the Mount Everest Cycle.  UVXY should retest around that low according to the Cycle as it approaches the second blue arrow.

Since it is a large scale Cycle, it can take time (weeks) to reach the second blue arrow.   

The VIX Cycle is helpful for short term timing.  The VIX Cycle orange arrow high was likely August 30th.     

4hour Chart















Large Scale Mount Everest Cycle:
















23 comments:

  1. SC,
    What is the lowest point of UVXY and VIX when the blue arrow is reached?
    Thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Right now UVXY is approximately halfway between the blue arrows in this large scale Cycle.

      The first blue arrow was $32. Based on the Cycle it should retest around that level again in coming weeks as it completes a major bottoming formation.

      VIX should retest 13's which should be a strong support.

      Delete
  2. SC, thanks a lot for the update, greatly appreciated your work and time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Tushar. I appreciate your market thoughts as well!

      Delete
  3. Sc

    You were going to give an update on where you thought we were on the SPY/SnP chart? Are you still going to? Thanks, s

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, will do. In the SPX Cycle, I believe the retracement from the yellow completed, and so SPX should be on the upswing for weeks next according to the Cycle.

      I'm not expecting much action this month though. Relatively slow. I think the action will pick up in Oct/Nov so I don't mind if things are a little quiet this month.

      Delete
    2. SC,
      That means S&P will be up for Sept, and then when it comes to the Blue Arrow, probably starting Oct, the plunge will occur and UVXY will rise to approach the Yellow Arrow? In early 2014, UVXY will drop a bit and then a big surge will take place (the big crash in S&P will occur)?
      Thx!

      Delete
    3. That is the right idea. Keep in mind since it is a large scale Cycle, the yellow and orange arrows will take time to form with a lot of sideways and consolidation.

      So best to take it one step at a time.

      Delete
  4. Hi SC

    From what I gather with your information, VIX is going lower, yet you holding onto your over weight position of UVXY instead of letting it go and re-enter on a better position? Is what I gathered correct?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do expect VIX to test 13's, and will continue to increase the size of my position. I am showing both short term and big picture Cycles, but I'm most interested in the big picture and so plan to increase positions as the VIX reaches a mature configuration.

      Delete
  5. SC, you state earlier that after this bottom formation, UVXY will go to 160-200... Is that the first yellow arrow after the blue or is that the green arrow way up top? Thks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is the target for the yellow arrow.

      Delete
  6. SC what is your target for S&P to hit before it turn down?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The SPX Cycle showed the retracement from the yellow arrow, then new high for SPX. Might see a bit of a dip first, but a new high looks possible.

      In the Cycle there were 3 pushes up from the June bottom (5 waves), and this is likely the wave 5 shown in the Cycle.

      Delete
  7. Sc,

    It would help everyone if you would post a SPX/Snp chart! Tx, s

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ok, will do. SPX did retrace in accordance with the Cycle, and we are seeing the rally shown in the Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SC, so you think VIX has still more then 2 dollars to go before it turn back?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There might be some support around the current 14.50 level for VIX, but I think we'll see 13's tested.

      Delete
  10. Hello SC, was that IT for Gold? From the POMO schedule it looks like no tapering from FED this coming meeting, so are there chances Gold can continue higher? What about mining and your earlier target of 15-16 for NUGT? Thanks a lot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold is probably due for some consolidation here, but I can see it higher for another month or two.

      Delete
  11. Dow to 16.000 before november!After weak time to april 2014.Maybe more 20.000 in 2017.
    Eur/usd like up next 20 month to 1,70.
    Usd/chf like hard down to 0.60 .


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  12. Trend big is bull,thinks are very weak in life some when hell,bull market not play down scenary.A children if to se ma200 up today in Dow,said this is bull buy dont worry be happy.A boss hedgefund have think,work hard more probably strategy moment and can to go hell.

    Pluto retrograde 20 september,very bad history in brent,wti.
    Maybe wtic,brent down monday and tuesday,then up to friday 20 september.After more down to finish month september.Sell wtic,brent today,scenary more probably is down next weeks.
    Regards.

    ReplyDelete