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Sunday, July 14, 2013

$SPX - Crash Approaching Update

SPX did, in fact, turn down at Point A, decline to test near the red horizontal, and then bounce from the red horizontal.  All of these events were predicted by the Crash Cycles.

SPX is likely near the yellow arrow in the Cycle.      

60min Chart
















Crash Cycle #1:



















The Deja Vu Cycle is a larger scale Cycle.  The red horizontal line is shown.


















132 comments:

  1. According to the Cycle, SPX is near resistance and I think stall and drop to around 1635 or 1640 next.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SC

    Do the bars on the "crash cycle #1 chart represent days where the arrow is or is this just an estimate..........what I am asking is there still a run up for a few bars/days expected or is it close enough in your mind and that is why you went short?

    Are you going to tell us the years and location on the chart you are following for SP/SILVER or is that too much to ask! I asked before but no answer, either way is fine, just trying to follow! syd

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a daily chart, of the 1987 crash.
      --

      The analogy..was busted some days ago, depending on how 'liberal' you are with such scenarios.

      The fact the R2K is at all time historic highs, is being completely ignored (intentionally or not) by SC.
      --

      QE continues.

      Thats all that matters.

      Delete
    2. Syd,

      The bars cannot be used for timing purposes. The point of the Cycle is to compare the behaviour of the market.

      I went short because I see that the market is near the yellow arrow. Which means it should dip soon. I'm thinking around 1630 to 1640.

      Delete
    3. Perma,

      I could just as easily say that bulls are ignoring the fact that VIX bottomed 4 months ago and currently has a golden cross.

      There are 2 different Cycles shown here. Both work, and show the same result.

      As far as QE they have already planted the seed about tapering as we all know. Markets are forward looking.

      Delete
    4. SC

      Thanks for your time! I get the idea! syd

      Delete
    5. You are welcome Syd! What I mean by comparing the behaviour is that SPX surged up into the yellow arrow. The behaviour of SPX is similar to the Cycle from 1560 to the yellow arrow.

      Delete
  3. Hi SC, I'm just trying to make sure I understand your new charts. Thanks for the post.

    The yellow arrow on the middle chart is followed by a brief period of consolidation, and then a higher high. If you think we're nearing the yellow arrow now, then I take it that means you expect a modest pullback or consolidation, then a higher high? If so, do you have a target in time and price for that higher high (which would be the top before the crash begins)?

    I think you view Point A as the May 22 1687 high. In that case, if we have any higher high above the current 1680 rebound high (as of the close on Friday 7/12), it will also surely make a higher high above May 22/1687/Point A.

    Under your cycle view, is the market "allowed" to exceed point A? Do you thus see a new all-time high coming? Or have I misunderstood the post?

    Thanks...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, you have the right idea. I think we are near the yellow arrow so dip and consolidate next. A dip to around 1640, then could see a test just slightly over that pink line. So a higher high than the May Point A could be possible considering that the Cycle shows 3 pushes up from 1560.

      Right now I only count 2 pushes.

      This could take weeks to play out. I plan to post analysis titled "Crash Imminent" once all conditions in the Cycle have been conclusively met.

      Delete
    2. The main idea right now is that a dip is due. 1630 to 1640. That can take a week or more.

      I may look to cover shorts at those levels, and reshort again. We'll see how things unfold this week.

      Delete
  4. some people are showing a butterfly formation. pull back to 1640 and then to 1787,?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Agree....mkts have got 1700 written all over them.

    There is no support for UVXY using TA.

    One could just throw darts at it but its pure guess work at the moment until a pattern emerges.

    Plenty of other instruments to make money on in the meantime.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Both VIX and UVXY have behaved consistent with the Cycle. According to the Cycle UVXY should churn sideways and form a low, gradually warming up. Therefore, not expecting much short term.

    SCJune 28, 2013 at 7:51 AM
    "UVXY $48 to $50 could be possible."

    SCJuly 9, 2013 at 8:41 AM
    "VIX 13.50 for a bottom still looks about right."

    SCJuly 5, 2013 at 7:09 AM
    "The low for VIX should be about 13.50 to 14. Still more room for VIX to cool short term."

    ReplyDelete
  7. SPX does seem to be running out of gas at this pink resistance line.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC,

    The period from october 2011 to july 2013 - was it a bull market in your book? Yes or no answer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you still suggesting hyperinflation and Dow 30,000?

      Delete
    2. SC, no i am not suggesting that.

      Was this a bull market in your book?

      Delete
    3. It all depends on which time period you are looking at.

      The Financials index has only recovered 50% of losses from 2007. Nasdaq is not even close to the year 2000 peak.

      Sure the rally from 2009 has been strong, but we have seen 2 massive crashes in years 2000 and 2007. SPX is up a feeble 110 points from 13 years ago in year 2000.

      Delete
    4. SC, i specified the period in the question above.

      Delete
    5. I believe the 13 year trend of weakness is more important while you believe the last several years is more important. I'm right about what is important to me, and you are right about what is important to you.

      Delete
  9. Hi SC:

    Wondering if you think commodities will take a nose dive as well ... especially looking at Crude Oil ... seems to have gone parabolic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most commodities would likely decline. Although I do like Gold and Silver for the near term.

      Delete
  10. One way to measure how expensive stocks are is by using the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio, or CAPE. Unlike the normal P/E ratio, which looks at just 12 months' worth of earnings or forecast earnings, the CAPE compares share prices to average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years.

    This smooths out any anomalies created by unusually high or unusually low earnings over a 12-month period. And it has been a good guide to long-run returns.

    At today's CAPE of 24.6, history suggests returns of less than 1% over the next decade for buying and holding the S&P 500.

    The CAPE for the S&P 500 is above its historic average

    This is a problem for the bull case for US stocks. Because it suggests stocks have not yet reached their final secular bear market bottom – where valuation levels are low enough to give above-average returns.

    This usually happens with the CAPE in single digits... not far above the historic average, where it sits today.

    History suggests we'll see one last big fall in stocks before the next secular bull begins.

    Chris Hunter
    Investment Director
    Bonner & Partners Family Office

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Sqroot. Good to see you!

      Delete
  11. I think that Dow Jones can not crash after 10 agoust 99% probably but maybe before 60% probably.I should not play this parobably hard down,stockmarket is bull to began 2015 and very bull agoust-november 2014.I like more bull after 10 agoust in Dow jones and eur/usd to january 2015...
    Bye...

    ReplyDelete
  12. As shown in the model SPX is approaching a peak. It is not quite ready yet since near the yellow arrow. VIX while slowly warming up, VIX isn't in a position to spike quite yet.

    Right now simply waiting for SPX to peak.

    Once SPX peaks, the Cycles predict a moderate paced decline to 1540. As the 1540 horizontal breaks, SPX crashes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you have a price level or time target for the peak?

      Delete
    2. SPX due to retrace somewhat since it tested near the pink resistance yesterday. I think it'll retrace and then probably test just over that pink line.

      Delete
  13. Hi SC

    I am confused then, why you would enter UVXY or short so early, if you think we only retrace somewhat and the head for new high. Wont both of those position get screw if we go that direction?

    you plan to hold through that event?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Retrace to what level?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  15. I am positioned for the crash. I think it is a fools game to speculate on what the top tick would be or which day it rolls over given the extreme risk, and where we are in these multiple Cycles.

    There is little or nothing for upside compared to downside, and the time is running out.

    ReplyDelete
  16. How much time are we talking about SC? Days-Weeks or Months?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Weeks at most. This could grind along still but there won't be the strength to last.

      Delete
    2. weeks until the crash, or weeks for the top? It looks like a long time between the two looking at the chart.

      Delete
  17. That's weeks of profit opportunities in other instruments....

    As long you have stops, play the upside....it's all about pattern recognition, taking each trade & winning 70% of the time.

    Buying & holding a decaying beast is a mugs game. There will be plenty of opportunity to jump on board UVXY when the train starts to move.

    We could go to 1750 don't forget!

    I do agree once we top, we have about 200 points downside unless we see 1750 then it will be 250 points....but where will UVXY be at 1750?

    Patience is the key...trade what you see & not what you think.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Agreed Phil... but given the low volume churn we're experiencing currently, what are your preferred trading instruments for gaining some upside?

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  19. I don't have a preferred instrument, I just trade patterns. Today's trade was the morning Forex set up in EUR.USD back to the pivot for 20 pips.

    Last night was a short in the S&P for 5 points.

    Every trade is 1:1 or 2:1 depending on the set up, just happened that these both came off as winners, not luck, just probability.

    I do trade UVXY or other such instruments 1-3x per year with a larger stop & in bigger size but ONLY on extreme movements. If the S&P gets to 1730 then such an extreme set up may be the case. Will have to see what happens if & when we reach such levels.

    Concentrate on the NOW....past & future are irrelevant in trading.

    ReplyDelete
  20. OK....an example for today's trading:

    UVXY - I will buy at 48.60 which is the 0.618% retracement of the rally from 47.10 - 51.02.

    Stop is $1, target is 50% at $1 & 50% at $1.5.

    ReplyDelete
  21. They did almost hit the 0.78% retracement pre-open so plenty of opportunity to buy today...

    Well that was quick! $1 profit on 50%....moved stop to breakeven on the rest for a free trade.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Boy SC...how smart are you? LOL!!!

    ReplyDelete
  23. VIX hit 13.50 to the penny and bounced!

    SCJuly 9, 2013 at 8:41 AM
    "VIX 13.50 for a bottom still looks about right."

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  24. At this pace the red arrow target for SPX is due end of Aug - 6 weeks. Ideal target is 1380-1390. 1355 SPX maximum.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      At that SPX target of 1380-1390 or 1355, do you expect UVXY to hit around 160 or 250?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. $160 minimum, near $250 late in the year.

      Delete
  25. Hi SC

    Is your 250$ target for that point P target?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Criminal to suggest crash to 1400. Absurd and rather cooky prediction. 60 billion dollar hedge funds are betting up, not down. Vix to 11 shortly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The VIX has a golden cross! Respect that!!

      Delete
    2. Yeah I think the billion dollar hedge funds said the same thing in the last crash /

      Delete
    3. SC, I think you and your cycle analysis will be right although itś tough to analyze, see and believe it that way. Would it be a good comparison between VIX 2011 and now for various indicators and weekly price movements? If so, it seems we have about two weeks before the start of the decline. I would like to read on your thoughtṣ. Thanks!

      Delete
  27. Today July 17th 2013 an exact alignment of planets occurs called a GRAND TRINE.. This astrological alignment is considered beneficial and harmonious.. A grand trine this exact between slow moving planets is VERY RARE.. maybe once in 500 - 1000 years.. That makes this date a major tipping point .. The question then arises beneficial for who.. The effect of this alignment has been building up for some weeks now since about the time Snowden became a household name.. My observation is this is VERY VERY difficult for the so called powers that be. I believe that up until Snowmen a well planned script was in progress but this good astro has made it impossible to carry out.. Hence Napolitano got the axe last week.

    The failure of the media and cohorts to foment race riots has been telling.. This is a sea change that puts a spotlight on the fact that a majority of Americans are understanding the role the media has had in wars based on lies and covering up of criminal activity in high places. Keep in mind that as I see it the obama admin has been working overtime for a year or more to annoy Americans hoping that will create enough angry reaction to make martial law welcome by the majority.. Me thinks the EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES..

    This wonderful astro is in progress of peaking out in the next few days and I MUST WARN AMERICANS THEY NEED TO STAND DOWN A FEW WEEKS MORE.. The reason is the very chaotic effect of what is called a T Square alignment on the timeline lasting into the end of July..
    IF WE CAN HOLD OFF GIVING GOV AN EXCUSE TO CLAMP DOWN ON US we will be witness to what could be a miraculous unraveling of the war on terror and the side effects this false war has had on the ECONOMY.. The Psychology and physical health of citizens.. and .. the prospects for the future..
    The RED LINES ON THE BELOW CHART IS THE T SQUARE
    http://astroecon.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi S Chand

      what does all that writings mean? can we get a 1 line sentence here?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. reading Robert Hitt's ramblings is a waste of time...

      Delete
  28. I copied and pasted the above information form astrochem.com. It might be useful for some, the others can disregard it

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  29. Is it better to buy metals or short the S&P?

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  30. This looks like a flat wave-4 in the S&P, expecting a wave-5 to start next couple of days to take us to 1700-1750.





    ReplyDelete
  31. July 17, 2013 Market Watch / Mark Hulbert

    Sell signal from key market indicator
    Commentary: Famous ‘High Low Logic Index’ is no longer bullish The last time this indicator generated a sell signal was in late 2007, just before the Great Recession.
    The indicator is called the “High Low Logic Index,” and it was created by Norm Fosback in 1979, then the president of the Institute for Econometric Research, and currently editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster. The indicator represents the lesser of two numbers: New 52-week highs and new 52-week lows (both expressed as a percentage of total issues traded). High readings are bearish, while low levels are bullish.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Point P on your Deja Vu Cycle schematic...do you expect point P in the April/May 2014 time frame?

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    Replies
    1. I've been thinking it is at least 4 months away. Maybe longer. So late this year or early next year looks possible.

      Delete
    2. thanks...then it could be as early as mid to late December 2013?

      Delete
  33. Damn...look at this market!!!! New HIGHS everywhere. SC, please make comments regarding your cycle. Busted and push out again!!!

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  34. The Cycle shows clearly 3 pushes to the high from 1560. The yellow arrow was the second push. That means this is the third and final push to exhaustion for SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  35. The pink line is at SPX 1691.

    SCJuly 16, 2013 at 8:05 AM
    "SPX due to retrace somewhat since it tested near the pink resistance yesterday. I think it'll retrace and then probably test just over that pink line."

    ReplyDelete
  36. Bull !! Data strong. Philly Fed and earnings superb! Contrarian view won't apply this year. Beware.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi SC

    Good luck, let drop this market :)


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. I think we may grind along this pink line for days until SPX reaches exhaustion. Next week.

      The Cycle has been very positive from the 1560 level, but since we're into the final third push the Cycle predicts exhaustion is near.

      Delete
  38. The 50 day moving average on the VIX is currently rising!

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    Replies
    1. Sc, have you calculated your Gold retracement target price and timeframe month? Can you please share..thanks!

      Delete
    2. One of the things I have been watching for is strength in Gold relative to Silver. We are seeing that in July. So it is shaping up nicely.

      My Cycle is based on Silver and I see around $26 for Silver. I plan to unload Gold once Silver is around $26. $1600 seems easy and if Gold is strong relative to Silver then could well be higher. Gold timeframe Aug/Sept.

      Delete
  39. SC, what evidence do you have for the crash? The markets are making new highs, earnings look ok. It is summer.

    ReplyDelete
  40. The evidence is shown on the Cycles above. The VIX agrees with the Cycles and has a golden cross and bottom in March. VIX turned up in mid-March when Cyprus issues erupted.

    UPS shares dropped by 6 percent on Friday after the company reduced earnings guidance. And one of the reasons the global shipping company gave for cutting guidance was "a slowing U.S. industrial economy."

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100892545

    ReplyDelete
  41. SPX did, in fact, turn down at Point A, decline to test near the red horizontal, and then bounce from the red horizontal. All of these events were predicted by the Crash Cycles.

    ReplyDelete
  42. You've got everything Russel, NASDAQ, Financials making highs.

    If crash cycle was correct wouldn't this not be happening?

    There have to be some major divergences in place for the major change in trend to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  43. The Financials have only recovered 50% of losses from 2007. Nasdaq has a long way to go to recover losses from 2000.

    The Cycles predicted a strong bounce from the red horizontal. We got it! The Cycles show this being the bounce before the crash.

    I trust the VIX.

    ReplyDelete
  44. What the Cycles show for SPX is simply a test of the trendline from March 2009. It is reasonable.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Sc, VIX at 13.18. Very close to breaking into 12's. if VIX cannot hold 13 will this impact your crash projection at all. I must admit I thought UVXY 160 was plausable when it was in the 80's...now not so sure. Would need 40 VIX for that to happen!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX overall has been strengthening since March. VIX has the golden cross. VIX hit the trendline from 2008 in June so it cooled off that - no mystery there. I see some resistance in the 15's for VIX, and once that clears there is nothing to stop it from breaking over the 2008 trendline into the 30's/40's.

      Delete
  46. The bull market which started in March of 2009 has been in progress for 52 months. The last bull market lasted 60 months from October 2002 to October 2007 just for comparison.

    If you look at all rallies since 1900's started, this rally is nothing special and there is still room to grow, historically speaking we rank below average:

    http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130717.gif

    So now you are backing off on the really bearish scenario? I thought you were saying that this is the top with next couple of years being very depressing? New low on the SnP (<666)?

    ReplyDelete
  47. I have never shown any scenario that bearish.

    What I am anticipating is a drop to test the 2009 trendline for SPX, then a strong bounce off that level.

    ReplyDelete
  48. In terms of fundamentals the market is forward looking so expect it to readjust lower in advance of QE tapering.

    When the market rallies without QE that is the time to become concerned. Why? Because the ultimate in complacency would be reached when the market rallies without QE. People would then believe economic recovery had occurred.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Nobody is cheering this rally and nobody is saying that we have recovered economically. Once the trendline from 2009 is tested then the market can rally without QE. That is the rally that people will cheer. That is the time that people will say "we've recovered!".

    That is the time to be more concerned...

    ReplyDelete
  50. SC,

    Why are calling this a CRASH if its a mere correction to the trend line then?

    What was the point in focusing on the downside when the majority of the move was/is to the upside?

    ReplyDelete
  51. Because it is a fast 300 point crash to the trendline in the Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  52. So basically eliminating the gains from january 2013 but nothing lower?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not lower than the March 2009 trendline for SPX this year. That is likely a strong support.

      Delete
  53. Hey SC, VIX getting crushed here and well below recent support. I think the FED sees the big drop coming and are doing everything to avert it, as they have every time in recent memory. Last August presented the same set-up, and VIX was crushed by design.

    ReplyDelete
  54. VIX still higher than March even with SPX making higher highs. That's telling.

    ReplyDelete
  55. SC, looks like market will not turn back until it hit 1700 plus change...VIX will be in low 12 I think...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Little happened this week. SPX still near the yellow arrow. Just a touch higher early next week for SPX and then due to retrace to around 1650 SPX imo.

      I'm probably going to look to take profit around 1650 and reshort.

      Delete
  56. why is vix getting crushed today, probably everyone is expecting 1750

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Complacency is setting in.

      Delete
    2. Also, it's options expiry day. I often see weird extremes in options volume, put/call ratios, and implied volatility on opex days.

      Delete
  57. this just looks like a one way market

    ReplyDelete
  58. SC,

    "I'm probably going to look to take profit around 1650 and reshort."

    Your statement here ................I do not see on your chart a retracement once the down starts! What am I missing? TX! syd

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the Cycle we're trading around the yellow arrow. Retracement is due from the yellow arrow. So retracement to 1650.

      Delete
    2. SC

      So are you saying we are not at the 3rd push yet? This rally is still #2? Thanks! syd

      Delete
    3. SC - you are seeing a drop to 1650 and then another final rally to over 1700 - which will be the final rally before the drop to 1390ish area?

      Delete
  59. I'm confident Vix will go below 11. UVXY should see 20s for sure this year.

    ReplyDelete
  60. "...my view on the market is...will keep rising, until the mid of August 2013...then after an all-time-high is created in mid-August 2013...bad news will start to surface on the market...the bad news, however...will not affect the market much at first...only after 2014, the plunge will pick up speed...target of 4,000 on DJI...plunge shall end on December 31st 2016...DJI will rise again from 1st January 2017 onward..."

    Khit Wong
    August 5, 2012

    ReplyDelete
  61. VIX daily trader chart causes me to believe that a bottoming process has begun...however, there are no signs of positive divergence as of the market close on Friday...that means the VIX can go lower...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree, VIX might see a touch lower early next week but it'll be ready to pop soon. Then after that pop one lower low might be possible. So it is shaping up.

      Delete
  62. Interesting we are now seeing over 100 comments....time to get more cautious.

    SC - I thought you weren't looking at short term moves in the mkt, selling at 1650 is not the bigger picture! Also I thought you were long of UVXY at $96 so you won't be taking profit for a long time yet....

    "Now my max upside target for this year is $250. My ultimate long term target for UVXY is $1,450. I'm fully positioned now. Overweight UVXY".

    I'm not having a go but surely given your strategy on the way up, you would be silly to sell at 1650....just close your eyes & wait for a couple of months.

    This week is going to be an important week in my view, if EUR.USD backs down with the mkt following, we could just be in a mini wave 4 & then up to 1700++.

    If EUR.USD sees another 100-150 pips upside then its maximum bearish stance for me as that would signal we have topped out.

    Always use stops of course....

    ReplyDelete
  63. Yes, when the market is setting up for a large move I don't like to be in the habit of short term trading. The money is going to be made by building a short position and holding.

    In the Cycle we're around the yellow arrow so I'm expecting retracement to around 1650. The Cycle suggests a higher high but I will be cautious anyways given the crash coming in the Cycle. So I'll exit around 1650 and reshort soon afterwards. Just a matter of getting a little better short to hold.

    For UVXY I plan to just simply hold for $160. VIX can only see a little lower. The big move for VIX will occur when the red horizontal at 1540 SPX breaks. UVXY might be around $80 when that occurs, and then spike up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, what do you think of the possibility that the dip from 1684 to 1672 was the second dip in your cycle, and the rally from 1672 to 1696 was the third upleg? I realize it's a little small in both directions, but on the other hand the first dip from 1627 to 1604 wasn't very impressive either.

      Delete
    2. That is exactly the question to ask. From 1560 there should be 3 pushes to the high (5 waves). There are 2 retracements. Both retracements are shallow in the Cycle.

      I debated that, but the evidence suggests that we are still at the yellow arrow. First, the 12 point retracement was too shallow compared to the Cycle. Second, the time of the retracement should be similar to the June 27 to July 5 retracement - about a week. So the retracement should take longer - a week or so. Third, SPX is testing resistance at this pink line so it makes sense that the retracement occurs from this level. Fourth, VIX is shaping up but the configuration isn't ripe for anything major quite yet either.

      Therefore, a dip to 1650 soon, then the final push. At this pace, 3 weeks for the topping process to complete, and then 3 weeks for the crash to complete. About 6 weeks total estimate.

      Delete
  64. SC,

    Where do you think we are in the UVXY cycle?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The red candle - forming the low. Once the low is in place, then the trend turns up, and slowly rises initially, slowly warming up as the Cycle progresses. UVXY would then move much more aggressively after 1540 breaks for SPX.

      Delete
  65. SC,
    I understand what you are saying in relation to the UVXY cycle. But you have said that the upper bottom for UVXY will be formed between 46,5 and 48,5. How much more downside do you expect?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very little. Probably less than 10%.

      Delete
    2. I'm holding since I believe that there is so little relative to upside.

      Delete
    3. SC,
      Once S&P drops to 1650 (wave 4).

      Is the UVXY cycle than arrived in the green candlestick next to the red bottom candlestick?

      That means that when the S&P will make wave 5 to 1700+ the UVXY will not drops lower than 43 minus <10%. (See above).

      Am I correct?

      Thanks!!!

      Delete
    4. Is that 10% down from 48 because we're there in Friday...or 10% from 42?

      What would be useful SC is a big fat neon UVXY sign that says NOW!

      Delete
    5. You have the right idea. UVXY would be in the green candle once SPX is dropping down to 1650. UVXY might see a little lower on a wave 5 but little.

      I could see UVXY a touch lower early this week, but looks like it is getting ready to pop back to $50ish.

      Delete
    6. If you are right you make a lot of people happy!

      Delete
  66. DOW


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  67. http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_14691666.png

    VIX close to bottom

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  68. VIX testing April/May levels so expect it to find support soon, and bounce. Then could see under the April low, but hold above the March low.

    Maybe 1 point to go in coming weeks for VIX. Then can see 40ish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC,

      How worried are you that you'll cover at ~1660, and it'll turn out this was the top and the market just keeps plunging? That is my primary concern at the moment.

      Although I very much appreciate your posts, I don't trade based on your outlook - I use my own methods - but I am also looking for a sharp downturn from a price not higher than the 1711 area.

      I don't trade using Elliott Wave Theory either, but I do find it a useful way to think about market movements in a structured way. The big EW question is the structure of the rally off 1560. Do we have an A-B-C up? A 1-2-3, with 4 and 5 to come? Or a nearly completed 1-2-3-4-5? One could make a reasonable argument for any of those (which is why I don't rely on EW in my trading decisions).

      Delete
    2. I think the evidence is quite solid for this being the 3rd. There are the 4 reasons above. Aside from those reasons another piece of evidence that I am watching is to see how the market behaves to distinguish between the 3rd and the 5th.

      The 3rd (yellow arrow in the Cycle) is a "pointy" high whereas the 5th lingers at the top. So if the market drops within a few days of the high, then that supports the 3rd. If it lingers for a week or more then that supports the 5th.

      I'm quite sure it is the 3rd. We'll have more evidence this week.

      Delete
  69. No no! VIX below 11. UVXY will get destroyed before it mildly recovers upward. 160? Never. 250? Never. 80? Maybe with market pullback. S&P down to 1400, -17%? Never. This blog has become conspiracy theory-esque. I respect that you stick to crash call but it simply won't occur. The tide is against you and its not complacency...it's a strong bull environment.

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    Replies
    1. TOO FUNNY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Then go long and post your statement into Oct 1st! That will be interesting! We will look forward to seeing it!

      Delete
    2. Be Careful you are the one who should be careful! VIX UNDER 11? That has happened less than 5 percent of the time. 95% of the time VIX is ABOVE 11!!!

      Vix has spent a total of six days in its entire existance under 10 btw.

      Delete
  70. http://stockcharts.com/public/1317031 this guy in stock charts has been saying for vix to fall to 11-12, see the chart on vix ( to make point iv) and it did not look true, few weeks ago, but from point iv rises to 24 and higher

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    Replies
    1. Very interesting charts! Thank you!

      Delete
    2. Eduardo Mirahyes is a perma bear...go to his website and review his market letters...how often has he been right?

      http://www.exceptional-bear.com/15.html

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    3. Probably more often than Prechter! LOL!

      Delete
  71. The facts are straightforward. The VIX was at 11 in mid-March when SPX was around 1565. Since mid-March SPX is up 130 and VIX is also up. There is no mystery.

    The warning from VIX is loud and clear. Yes, the market can trade a little higher short term. The SPX Cycle is still positive.

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  72. New update has been posted!

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