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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Silver - Sharp Rally Next

Silver is likely bottoming out at the turquoise arrow Cycle low.  The rally next for Silver and Gold should be very sharp according to the Cycle.  Price goes almost straight up from the turquoise arrow low in the Cycle.  

Silver is due to act as a safe haven and spike up next.  It's a fear trade while SPX crashes in July.  The Cycle is based on Silver, but Gold may be an especially strong performer.


2day Chart
















Silver Bear Market Cycle:


















72 comments:

  1. Hi SC

    Thanks for the chart work.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. You are most welcome. Let's make some money!

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  2. The reason I bought Gold and Silver yesterday is because the Silver Cycle is due for a fast and sharp bounce.

    The Silver Cycle suggests a 40 to 50% rise during the next 5 or 6 weeks.

    I think Gold will be particularly strong though.

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  3. The key here is that Gold and Silver are just a summer trade. Don't fall in love with the metals once they surge up.

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    1. Hey SC, Could it be possible we wait about three weeks or so to SPX 1655 until third week of July and then the fall happens (similarity to July - September 2011). Also, I am confused as to in 2011 Gold was making all time high whereas now it's an oversold bounce. Why compare two different scenarios for PMs? Many thanks!

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    2. I figure the SPX rally takes until about mid-July give or take. The only comparison between summer 2011 and this summer for Gold is that I think Gold rises with SPX falling. Other than that I agree with you.

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  4. Gold back to 1343, and then down again.

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  5. Hi SC

    Do you see us go to below 1600 SPX now?

    Thanks!

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    1. Was expecting a dip from around 1620 SPX. Maybe that has started but hard say just yet... SPX still has 2 weeks to rally imo.

      SCJune 25, 2013 at 2:41 PM

      "I mentioned earlier that there may be 2 dips during this rally.

      Roughly 1620 dip to 1590, then 1645 to 1605, then final pop to 1660. All approximate of course. I want to short and will load up on UVXY on that last pop.

      The whole process should take 2 weeks or so."

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    2. Hi SC

      wondering if you have target price you looking at to get back in UVXY/HVU?


      Thanks!

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    3. I'll have to wait for this SPX rally to advance more to have a downside target for UVXY. A new low may be possible. Still early.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  7. No the stop would be based on the Silver Cycle. So that means price, time or behaviour would stop me out. There should not be much downside based on the Cycle since the behaviour is consistent with the Silver Cycle leading into the turquoise arrow low.

    As well there is a time constraint. Since this is effectively a safe haven trade, Silver/Gold should be rising by mid-July.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. No, moderate size positions with etfs. I might pick up some NUGT also. Looking good.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. No I was referring to NUGT which is up today!

      Weren't you bullish Gold early this year? You must have stopped out, surely you are not down $450?

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    3. SC, only you can handle big draw downs like that and still hold on to your positions.

      I've been long and short several times in last 12 months trading around the downtrend. I am not married to my positions. Stops are there for a reason.

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    4. Well the fact is you were bullish Gold at near $1700 early this year, and now bearish Gold.

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    5. i do think we are due for positive price reaction.

      here to 1180 looks attractive.

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    6. It's difficult to pick an exact low for Gold in a situation like this, however it should be reasonably close anyways according to the Cycle. I have high expectations for Gold second half July.

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    7. i was stopped out on that mid/short term trade SC.

      It is plain stupid to put on short positions here. That train left at higher levels.

      Good luck.

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    8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    9. No, the problem is that you do not seem to recognize that the Cycles I use are large in scale. I target large moves with these Cycle. I'm not pinpointing exact prices or dates. I'm buying Gold at a price that I consider good value based on the Cycle.

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    10. Sure, I might be a little early in time and price for Gold, but according to the Cycle I can be confident over the next 6 weeks or so.

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    11. "Well the fact is you were bullish Gold at near $1700 early this year, and now bearish Gold."

      Wait, SC, were't you bearish on the S&P the last few years? LOL!!! I am back from my vacation!

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    12. Thank you for marking the May top to within 5 minutes and start of crash.

      UnknownMay 22, 2013 at 7:26 AM

      "It's nice to be the only BULL here. Just move your stops and walk away. Calling TOPS can be a dangerous game."

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  9. UVXY is a good move here....$72.65

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  10. SC, eventhough your stop for gold is "flat", would you still hold your position if you see gold below $1,100 ?

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    1. No, I mean I can live with it dribbling down here a little short term for a week or something, but Gold should really form a low soon and not much lower. I would not hold it that low.

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    2. Part of the issue is that the Cycle is based on Silver so the limitation is that it does not translate as accurately for Gold. However, obviously both move together for the most part. I expect Gold to outperform which is why I bought some even accepting some limitation.

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    3. SC, the miners (NUGT) looks like its going to test the 2008 Low, there is no support until that point. While NUGT might be a good short covering pop over $5, it looks like a big downside move is coming again. The bottom is near though, and I agree will provide a major opportunity.

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    4. I'm quite bullish miners but only short term for summer bounce. Longer term still bearish.

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  11. Hi SC

    you thinking we go to around 1590 still at this rate. pretty strong tape.


    Thanks!

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    1. I'm not sure if SPX is dipping yet, but probably see 1595 by Monday imo. Then surge up again to 1650.

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  12. Funny how SC is calling his reader out.

    "Well the fact is you were bullish Gold at near $1700 early this year, and now bearish Gold."

    I will call SC out.

    SC...these are your own words is it not?

    Sunday, November 20, 2011
    SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues

    Wednesday, November 30, 2011
    $SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now

    Monday, December 5, 2011
    SPY - Top is IN!

    Wednesday, December 7, 2011
    $SPX - Triple Top

    Sunday, December 11, 2011
    $SPX - DAX Leading Down

    Monday, December 19, 2011
    SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan

    Tuesday, December 20, 2011
    $SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th

    Tuesday, December 27, 2011
    $INDU - Major Decline Next

    Thursday, December 29, 2011
    $SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Thursday, January 19, 2012
    $SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

    Saturday, January 21, 2012
    VIX - Bottomed

    Monday, January 23, 2012
    $SPX - Correction Due

    Saturday, February 4, 2012
    $SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012
    $SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull

    Wednesday, February 29, 2012
    $SPX - Ready to Decline

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

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  13. Thank you for marking the May top to within 5 minutes and start of crash.

    UnknownMay 22, 2013 at 7:26 AM

    "It's nice to be the only BULL here. Just move your stops and walk away. Calling TOPS can be a dangerous game."

    ReplyDelete
  14. Don't worry. I KILLED it! Stopped out that day and went short with you buddy. Too bad you did not post my comments that day so your reader WILL SEE THE TRUTH. Covered on Monday & playing this rebound. How are you still doing with your UVXY? LOL!!!

    This is why you should not ban people from making comments. You only let them post what you want to hear. Teach you a lesson from screening valuable posts.

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  15. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

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  16. Shit! Not that "unknown" clown here again.....

    Everytime this Bozo shows up the posts have to be moderated again.

    Hey Mr UNKNOWN BOZO, PLS S.T.F.U.

    ReplyDelete
  17. SC, this final VIX & UVXY drop are you predicting this to be the final opportunity to load up in $60's before the move to $200?

    VIX looks like nice inverted H&S formation complete over last few months plus golden cross 50-200 ma....be a shame to waste!

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    1. Yes, in July the last chance is coming to pick up UVXY. The stage is set VIX bull market, and it's going to be bigger than most can imagine.

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    2. VIX still needs to cool for a few weeks though.

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    3. If UVXY actually has the near term potential to run into the $200's, then why is everyone hem haw about picking some right now in the low $70's and instead quibbling about a few bucks trying to bottom fish in the high or mid $60's at the risk of completing missing out and having to pay up?

      Earlier this month UVXY was near $60 and in just two days almost hit $80. And then it happened again after FOMC at just under $63 low and the very next day nearly spiked $90! And this is happening during just a mild correction period with the main decline thus far only reaching -7.3% and the anticipated larger crash correction is still in the cards.

      SPX 1620 is a Fib 61.8% retracement level of the recent decline from the May 22 top. If this rally stalls here (even starting Friday Jun 28) then there are fairly good odds that it probes a slightly deeper level at the 1530 area. I actually have the scenario slightly inverse to SC's version, where I am anticipating a decline to lows by mid/late-July and then a rally into highs topping out by mid-Aug. If I'm not mistaken he is projecting a controlled rise in SPX of higher highs and higher lows right through the month of July.

      If there is no further (larger) correction in SPX then all of the other (related) trades in UVXY and long gold/silver will also fail too.

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    4. I think SC is expecting a rise to around 1660 into mid-July latest (with a bit of chop), before the next decline commences.

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    5. UVXY has a gap to fill at $68 and VIX likes to breakout and then backfill to the trendline, so makes sense to wait for lower prices. Impossible to know the future so i always keep core UVXY position also.

      I use the XIV spikes to add more UVXY.

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    6. Although I do agree there is good value in UVXY at any level, I am confident VIX cools to 13-14 first.

      So I'll wait for UVXY. There is time.

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  18. do you realize that VIX futures margins got hiked after the close last night......significantly too?

    Not sure what effect it will have on UVXY.

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    1. Yep. There basically is NO margin now on UVXY or XIV. Before they would give you 50% credit for the shares and now zip....trades just like NUGT and DUST.

      This sucks but wont affects the price any

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    2. Also, i think this margin hike bodes well for UVXY as it shows there is some anticipation of extreme rising VIX in the future....just like they raised gold etf margin just before dust took off

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  19. By my calculations, this rally for SPX from the low of 1560 is about a third complete in time.

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  20. Your timing for gold and silver seems to be perfect. Congrats SC

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    1. Thank you. Gold still sluggish, but Silver and GSX seem to be warming, leading up?

      We'll see how everything shapes up next week.

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  21. UVXY $48 to $50 could be possible.

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    1. Looks reasonable since SPX still has 2 more pops to go in price and 2 weeks in time in my work. UVXY down $20 on just the first pop in SPX.

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    2. UVXY down $20 because VIX drop from 21 to 16
      For UVXY to hit $50 translates to 12-13 VIX....not likely

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    3. Consider margin requirements are going to force liquidations. Could see a major drop for UVXY, agree $50 is likely in the next few days actually. On my site I identified the May peak (I was off by a week), the May low almost to the day, and this bump lasting until July 5th or July 8th before the plunge resumes. The roadmap has been excellent since End of Feb.

      http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8jgeD0aLkVc/UUZ5HdpzOnI/AAAAAAAAAQ0/JrXOsP7gYRc/s1600/2013+Primary+S&P+Roadmap.JPG

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    4. Ss, margin requirements have nothing to do with UVXY price. Hell i got a $6k margin call n XIV this morning and the thing is UP!

      XIV target is $21-22 to fill gap.

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    5. Hi Payday. I think it does. It affects Vix Futures contracts and may force some to liquidate, hence it could pressure futures to come down and as such, UVXY.

      I'm not 100% certain, got my info from here:
      http://vixandmore.blogspot.ca/2013/06/vix-futures-margin-requirements-to.html

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  22. SC, do you see today's early drop is the 1st dip you mentioned?

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    1. Yes, the first dip. It dipped from 1620 exactly. I thought 1596 would be ideal, but didn't quite see that low. Still could be possible to dip down to 1596 next week though.

      Then should rip to 1650.

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  23. SC you confuse me. A few weeks ago you stated that gold was going to go parabolic to over 2K and then on to new lows and yet now you are only expecting a bounce???

    So a bounce OR parabolic, because if gold goes to 2K the miners will go ballistic not just bounce!

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    1. It is a parabolic shaped rise in the Cycle from the turquoise arrow low.

      I think the Silver target shown is reasonable. Gold I am anticipating very strong performance. It's going to be a huge bounce for Gold in any case. A new high for Gold could be possible.

      I simply plan to sell both Silver and Gold once Silver is into that target area shown.

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  24. SC, according to your studies, is it possible that the SPX dive down to test the 1550 low again or even form a lower low before bounce back to 1660 area?

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    1. No, the next time SPX is down there, Cycle shows it continuing a few hundred points lower.

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    2. So you see a possible low on Monday in the 1595 area before we bounce hard again?

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    3. Either we saw the low for the dip today 1601 or might see the low Monday around 1596.

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    4. SC, you nailed the 1620 and the market exactly pullback from that, I am just wondering what's the significance of the 1596, and not lower area?

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    5. Those price levels are coming from a short term Cycle I am watching. Pleased with the way that Cycle is working, and I have that comparison coming tomorrow.

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