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Thursday, August 15, 2013

$SPX - Retracement Update

SPX found resistance around the pink line and retraced from that level.  The Cycle showed the retracement from the yellow arrow.

30min Chart
















Crash Cycle #1:
















47 comments:

  1. SC,
    Does Crash Cycle #1 show that there will still be a new high in S&P before the real crash starts?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that is what the Cycle suggests.

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  2. UVXY having made a double bottom needs the previous resistance at 36.78 to become a support level for further gains.

    Will be buying at that level with a tight stop.

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  3. How high it can go. And by when

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    Replies
    1. These Cycles have progressed well and can estimate some dates. I'm working on that and will have more charts coming.

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  4. SCAugust 1, 2013 at 8:05 AM

    "Might see near the 50dma for SPX short term that is about it. 1650 is the level I have been mentioning."

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  5. This is your move to 1650 with another higher hi over 1709 next?

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  6. But can high. Can it go as high as 1775 as some people are saying

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    Replies
    1. I don't think so. Momentum fizzled, and probably too weak to see that much.

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  7. Hi SC

    You plan to exit your short/UVXY whatever you have and go long now? and re-short later?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I may cover the SPX short soon and take profit then reshort later. VIX did pop to around 15 so UVXY probably limited upside and cool again soon in the short term, but looks great in the bigger picture according to these Cycles. So not sure if I will bother exiting and reloading.

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  8. From a purely visual perspective in terms of point "P" wouldn't a drop to the low 1600's fit better?

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    Replies
    1. Based on all these Cycles I see the trendline from March 2009 for SPX being tested. Point P target 1380-1390 area.

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    2. Next to impossible.

      Be lucky to see 1575/50 in September, and then a bounce..at least to 1625/50.

      Worse case..it just rallies into the spring. sp'2200.
      --

      The notion of sub 1400s.. is crazy talk.

      One down day doesn't merit such hysteria.

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    3. In the short term the Cycles suggest that the market finds support soon and bounces. The bigger picture is what is negative. One step at a time is the best approach as it is a relatively slow market.

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  9. Also my feeling is that most crashes come about as a result of the market failing to make new highs. ie, the sheeple after coming to expect new highs, panic when new highs are not obtained ie, lower highs and the market actually reverses and then breaks to new lows.
    This is what causes the panic.

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    Replies
    1. That is what happened in 2011.

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  10. Looks like gaps in vix. And everytbin g will be filled. To me it looks lime 1680 will fill. As a rally. 1775. And all does not look lime

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  11. Great call and patience so far on SPX! SC, are you looking to buy probably early next week near 1650, then head to 1720 SPX in early September? Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! This market does take a lot of patience. In May SPX hit that pink resistance, turned instantly, and dropped fast. This time it spent a lot of time testing that pink resistance.

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  12. “THE CLARITY OF THE PICTURE IS DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO THE PATIENCE OF THE TRADER”

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  13. Beautiful down today but remember the Dow jones is very bull to 1-2 years.Situation does not surprise to give hopes to the bears to return to rise to levels mas raised as the setback of a obus. Dow Jones around 20.000 in one year.
    Regrads.

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  14. http://stockcharts.com/public/1317031, see his vix chart again, looks like he expecting rally in stocks end of the month and beginning of sept, to give a low in vix and then a blast off in vix

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    Replies
    1. http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/07/spx-crash-approaching-update_3072.html?showComment=1374450106401#c1392001844625619085

      How do you reconcile the obvious inconsistencies between Mirahyes' VIX chart and SPX charts (monthly and daily)?

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  15. I just launched a new service with Woody Dorsey. He has been featured on almost every financial news station around and works with some of the largest institutions in the world.

    Woody is considered to be one of the best market timers in the world. His sentiment profiles and market psychology is absolutely amazing to say the least. His market turn calls are made weeks-months in advance and they are done with amazing accuracy. July 22nd top call was made on June 18th..August 6th top call was made on August 1st.

    His longer term call? Low in November of 2012 with a top in July. He is that good my friends and I am excited gto be working with him.

    http://behavioralmarkettrading.com/

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  16. Took profit on the Gold position at $1364 from $1240.

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  17. SPX probably going to attempt to bounce but might see a little lower in a few days.

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  18. Hi SC:

    Not sure if you trade Crude Oil ... would like to hear your take on it if you have the time. Crude seems to be very resilient but I just cannot see how it can hold up so well if the market itself is in doldrums.

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    Replies
    1. Crude Oil has been a good leading indicator for SPX in the past. For example, Crude made a higher low in June whereas SPX made a lower low. The higher low in June for Crude signalled rally for SPX in June.

      Crude is holding up and suggests limited downside short term for the markets. The Dow looks very weak, but others such as SPX have only moderate declines.

      Markets are slowly losing momentum, and should see Crude weaken later in the fall.

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    2. Thanks tons SC. Appreciate your up-to-date postings and truly wish your constant hard work will bring you tons of success.

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    3. Thank you, all the best!

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  19. there were people saying 1740 on august 16, it did not happen, now they are saying 1820 in oct. to me it looks like this market will fill the gap at 1680, so will the vix, it will match something like this: http://seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones_postelection.html

    Sc do you see this scenario.

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    Replies
    1. I do think short term downside is limited and market may remain quiet, but also that we are configuring for a bearish fall season.

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  20. Sc, why sell gold now? Looks like a double bottom in place.

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    Replies
    1. My Silver Cycle remains positive so should see metals higher this year. However, it is a large scale Cycle. So it may be early to have booked the gain, but I am questioning whether Gold/Silver might cool off in the short term for another entry. Maybe not, but if they dip enough I could be interested again in taking positions. I just decided to play it conservatively.

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  21. Covered SPX short at 1655 from 1670.

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  22. Might see lower but I am just going to sit back and see how things unfold next, and look to reshort later.

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    Replies
    1. SC, when you say lower what levels do you see might be the next good support zones?

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    2. My estimate for this dip was 1650 and we have basically met that level.

      SCAugust 1, 2013 at 8:05 AM

      "Might see near the 50dma for SPX short term that is about it. 1650 is the level I have been mentioning."

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    3. I doubt we see much lower short term. It really needs to hold here within a few points.

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  23. SC, you mentioned 3 pops for this rally, I can see that 1560-1630 as the 1st, 1610-1700 as the 2nd, and 1680-1710 as the possible last pop, your thoughts?

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    Replies
    1. This is the right question to ask. The Cycle shows 3 pops. I believe we have only 2 pops though at this time. The reason is that the second dip was perhaps too shallow and only 10 points for the third pop was probably too small.

      I have charts coming this weekend to specifically address this issue with supporting evidence.

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  24. SC, pretty much every analyst i have read is expecting some kind of bottom here. Either to new marginal highs or a gap fill at the very least.
    Indicators are oversold, most crashes occur from already oversold indcators. I lke the way this guy trades. He was expecting some kind of bottom but it hasn't eventuated. What has happened is that the situation has actually detiorated. Friday was OPEX and we once again enter a weekend with markets in a precarious position. Markets need to bounce out of the open on Monday. A failure to do so could be crucial, worse still, a large decline on the open could set the ball rolling to much lower levels and open up the crash window.
    Many analysts have stated that there will likely be no crash because mainstream media has discussed the idea too widely, however, it may also have created a self fulfilling prophecy.

    http://trader-moe.com/

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    Replies
    1. Don't weigh too heavily on Trader Moe's analysis or opinions by utilizing it in your own trading/investing. This guy is a very, very short term trader and can go long or short flip flopping within minutes. Certainly much quicker than he could update a posting on his blog.

      He also trades S&P mini futures and does a lot of his work in the overnight sessions. Actually, I recall how he brilliantly came up with an analysis of a bullish triangle intraday break out to the upside after markets closed on Wed Aug 15 and commenced to go long. Luckily he had a tight stop and got stopped out overnight and apparently went short. But what about all of the people following his blog the day before who actually base their own decisions and actions of a blog post? They obviously all got creamed on Thursday's huge GAP DOWN and even a stop would not have stopped blood flow.

      From what I read he is a professional blackjack gambler and also dabbles in poker and other stuff. So much of his trades, albeit utilizing TA as a basis for setups, are based on betting the probabilities. As an example he will bet on a trade if it has a 70% probability of winning, but it has no bearing on a full analysis of what is most likely to occur in the bigger mid-term picture.

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    2. Some markets such as the Dow have already dropped so much that a new high looks very unlikely. Others indexes have only declined moderately and a marginal high looks possible.

      Any way one looks at it the markets are weak, and getting weaker. SPX barely managed to squeak out a new high from May in 2 and a half months then collapsed.

      Crashes absolutely do occur from oversold levels. However, I don't think it is quite ready just yet.

      I have charts coming this weekend with the reasoning. What I expect next is a rocky market down here for a little while (week or so) that will shake everyone up, but I do see it setting up to bounce into Sept.

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