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Thursday, June 20, 2013

$VIX - Trending Higher

VIX has been trending higher since the middle of March.  As a result the 50-day moving average for VIX is now rising. 

It hasn't broken out yet, and still may be quite choppy going into early July.    

Daily

54 comments:

  1. VIX might pop short term but I suspect test between the yellow line and blue 50 day moving avg afterwards.

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    1. Might pop first then test around 14.50.

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  2. SC, that scale is months .. I could see VIX going back down to 12's easily into the late summer/early fall.

    Are such holes in your timing accuracy ok with you?

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    1. that is if this break out right here is not real thing and does not lead to a more significant sell off from here.

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  3. It is a similar situation to the Aug to Dec period. That time VIX spiked in Dec but was not ready to break out. According to the large Cycles, VIX will break out higher out of this uptrend. However, I don't think it'll do that until July.

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  4. Silver and Gold looking interesting!

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    1. SC, what targets for Gold/Silver are you watching for to build positions? Thanks!

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    2. I think Gold is attractive in the $1250 to $1285 range. Silver $19.50.

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  5. Hi SC

    Dont get why you didnt enter UVXY at 62 to 63 and now looking for VIX around 14. Looks like we just broke 1620 today with volume. Does that affect your analysis?


    Thanks!

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    1. Well I was anticipating UVXY to test $62 to $63 and it did. Obviously it has popped quite strongly off that level.

      However, VIX still does not look to be lined up for a bigger move though it can pop here some more short term. SPX 1580's might be tested but then it may bounce again.

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    2. There is a lot of whipsawing going on but what I am interested in positioning for is a major move. I believe there is a 300 point move coming in SPX.

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    3. I'm going to try to catch the turn as close as I can to capture most of the move. If I do miss the start then no problem, maybe I'll miss the first 50 points and catch the next 250.

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    4. As well I hold normal size short positions at all times. Then, when things line up I increase to overweight.

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  6. EMINI


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    1. still not worried about wash out in gold? ;)

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    2. AM

      I am not shorting only looking for intra day entrance long off 240 min once time is complete! 240 never gave completion signal yet! joed

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    3. GOLD .......

      LONGER CYCLE had been posted! Good trading! joed

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    4. joed,
      i dont mean to disrespect but the charts are not really useful without #'s/targets. All we see is big dot and general direction.

      i know its very useful for your students who know and use your system, but we are not your students!

      if you are trying to do public service (?) then more clarifying info is needed if this is just an attempt to recruit more people then forget what i said.

      good day!

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    5. AM..............

      Understood...........BUT I as I have posted many times TARGETS ARE NOT THAT IMPORTANT.........TIME IS AND LEADS TO THEM! IF you see no benefit, I understand, ppl that do not deal with time try to lean on targets! Best, joed

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    6. Joed, both are very important, like meat and salt, wont make great dish with one without another!

      but as i said your charts are just a cloudy teaser without anything concrete: i.e. pretty pictures in cooking magazine without recipes! whats the point?

      I understand you dont want to turn this into freely available source. There is no free lunch. I understand that.

      Good day!

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    7. AM.......

      My SUPPORT areas ARE shown with the HORIZONTAL LINES.....but as I have stated TIME makes them ACTIVE once it is complete! AND if you see no value, as I stated I respect your opinion, but respect others as you are not the only viewer and many get benefit in various degrees depending on experience......you obviously have much to share so I will look forward to your charts and time/targets etc. I always enjoy seeing other's work as I do Sc's! Best, joed

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    8. joed i see value, but a little clarification would be helpful!

      i dont know if anyone but me is looking at your blog! lol because if they did they would no longer hang out around here! if you know what i mean.

      Folks got wiped out (as you could see by the comments on this blog last 6 - 12months) as i said in the past before the real move came around!

      Good day!

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    9. AM............

      Not referring to you .....but I try not to spoon feed as I find it leads to a person giving away their own power and not putting in the effort needed! A good example is I tried to help a friend by doing some teaching with him! He took NO notes in 7 hrs......hard for me to understand as when I was younger I put in 24 hrs a day for weeks just trying to figure out a weakness in my trading!

      Also I just posted a CRUDE update.....TIME was posted in prior posts and the resistance is present! Well anyway, good trading and the best to you as I am older now and have been doing this a long time! I have respect of anyone on this journey......."the journey within." Best, joed

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    10. thanks joed.

      any basic rules on how to construct these cycle charts?

      is it by looking at past price history and applying repeated fractals to the future in time? then figuring out resistances and support levels and looking at those levels when time arrives? thats how it works in general?
      thanks.

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  7. Xiv in dangerous territory...looks like RS complete in H&S pattern. Any drop below $19 and its a $6 projected move to $13.... With corresponding move to $130-150 UVXY.

    Sc, i think we're very close to Point P drop...

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  8. The white trendline on the chart is an important one. The trendline connects the high for VIX of 89 in Oct 2008 to the high of 46 for VIX in Oct 2011.

    We're approaching an important time for VIX...

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  9. Silver down $1.50 and all the Ag miners are higher than they were in April...dang! I'm waiting to add to my miner position (hopefilly AG at $6)

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  10. Hi SC

    Are you still looking for VIX at 14 ish next?


    Thanks!

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    1. I think VIX can still pop more to test near the red or white lines. Then afterwards it can still cool off to around 14.

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    2. Would you try to go long when that happens?

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    3. It could work but have to consider carefully since SPX is trending down. Any bounces are just countertrend moves. In the Cycle the downtrend has only just started! Therefore, I'm mostly focused on shorts and bounces as opportunity to short.

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    4. VIX was right around the white line just now

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  11. Sc, in your opinion, when vix make first move to 30?

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  12. There is likely to be resistance for VIX in the 22 to 23 range which goes back to Dec levels. I think the VIX cools off again and makes a much more aggressive move up in July. This is just a pop but VIX is configuring to make a bigger move in July in my view.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Hi SC

      Looks like you maybe right on that resistance and VIX is ready to cool off again.

      Do you have that 14 target for VIX still for this cool off? or abit higher now?


      Thanks!

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    3. VIX today did hit the red line but not the white. So VIX still might see into the 22 or 23 range, but I still would look for it to cool off again, and yes, VIX 14.

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    4. VIX can gyrate quite aggressively both up and down in a situation like this. VIX fell quite a bit yesterday with little movement in SPX yesterday. VIX is getting jammed into action with all the support and resistances.

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  13. SC, you mentioned before that after the drop to 1580-1590, we can bounce right back to 1650, do you still see that's the case?

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  14. We still might have a little lower to go yet short term. Should hit a low soon though today/Monday. Then, yes, a solid bounce.

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  15. In a way SPX is catching up to the drop that already occurred in Nikkei earlier in June. Now Nikkei is bouncing and holding relatively well.

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  16. If VIX holds in this 18 area it can make another short term pop.

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  17. VIX is going to have a golden cross next few days. Of course once that headline hits the media it will surely cool off short term lol!

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  18. SC, you said that we still might have a little lower to go yet short term, what support levels are you seeing? Thanks!

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    1. There should be support in the 1550 to 1560 range.

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    2. You mean 1560 by today/Monday?

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    3. I figure we hit the minimum 1580 to 1590 range. More could be possible into that 1550 to 1560 range but that is max. Not certain it would go that low.

      In any case I think we need to see more evidence of a low forming.

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    4. Thanks, can't wait for your July waterfall!

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    5. Yes, this is an unstable market. These gyrations are just the tip of the iceberg, and in my view indicative of a much larger move coming.

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  19. The VIX Bollinger Band buy signal for SPX trigger today, SC, do you see a short term bottom has formed today?

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  20. I think today's low might hold for a day or two but it looks to me that SPX still heading lower next week. Nearer to 1550. It looked too weak to bounce today. A couple of sideways days and then lower.

    The Cycle charts will be posted this weekend along with a plan for the next month. Big swings ahead!

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  21. UVXY - closed 7.8 & the mkt has fallen 100 points!!!!

    Another reason never to buy & hold the decaying beast.

    I would be pulling my hair out if I had bought at 14.50 & still holding by now!!! I wouldn't be surprised if we bottom around 1520 & then rally up to 1800++ next year.

    Trade what you see & not what you think....always have stops.

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  22. This is only the beginning. UVXY just warming up. July plan posted.

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