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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

$SPX - Point A Target Reached


SPX has overshot the upper red line and reached the target for Point A exactly on time and price.  The behaviour of the rally is identical to the Cycle expanding formation.

SPX is trading in an expanding formation as predicted by the Deja Vu Cycle. In the Cycle, it does overshoot the red line to reach point A. Horizontal support held in April, and the Cycle accounts for that horizontal.

This is the 8th week that VIX has been trending up, and that is a serious warning. The behaviour of VIX is also evidence in support of the large Cycle continuing. However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may decline closer to the mid-March bottom.

60min Chart
















Before:  From May 6th analysis:


30min Chart
















The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.




















Deja Vu Cycle on a larger scale:


 

90 comments:

  1. SC,

    Are you ready to wait another 5-6 months for point Z?

    Because thats the next window of opportunity for a significant sell off.

    September - october 2013 VERY HIGH RISK period.

    Examples:

    The Panic of 1907 (October 1907)

    Black Tuesday, Thursday and Monday (October 1929)

    Black Monday (October 1987)

    The original "Black Day," Black Friday (1869), was in September

    Black Wednesday, Soros' raid on the British pound, is another September event

    September 2001 and 2008 single day point declines in the Dow were bigger than Black Monday 1987

    What date is it today?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Point A to Point P is a sizable drop in this Cycle. I do agree though that the Z drop is larger and that comes later in the Cycle.

      Delete
  2. Yes, Point Z is a very large move in this Cycle. BUT look at what happens from Point A to Point P.

    That is a significant Cycle drop in itself!

    ReplyDelete
  3. The drop from Point A to Point P in this Cycle is likely more than 200 SPX points and less than 300 points.

    ReplyDelete
  4. VIX is up again today, and was up yesterday. This is highly unusual with SPX up today and yesterday.

    We're on the cusp of a major turning point in the Cycle, and VIX agrees.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SC, I am just cutting & pasting your own words.

    Friday, January 4, 2013
    SPY - Crash Pattern Continues - Deja Vu Cycle

    A major crash of the scale that this Cycle predicts for 2013 is extremely rare. The Cycle predicts a measured decline of approximately 460 points to 1025 SPX during the first half of 2013. This represents an initial 31% measured decline potential for the market.

    ReplyDelete
  6. SC, thanks for the update! Very useful. This is the moment where bulls don't worry about their future and bears fed up with waiting...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are welcome! Yes, exactly.

      Delete
  7. The Cycle predicted the sharp rally phase to start in November, and was correct. Timing for completion of the Sharp Rally Phase has been slower though since it has been a slow grinding rally.

    SPX near Point A, and the VIX indicating that the large Cycle likely to continue.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "The Cycle predicted the sharp rally phase to start in November, and was correct."

    So it did not predict the 980 Crash target for 2012? These are your words, right? So you were WRONG?

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    Monday, December 5, 2011
    SPY - Top is IN!

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Thursday, January 19, 2012
    $SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012
    $SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull

    ReplyDelete
  9. There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You made 350 pts? From what i read you were nickeling and diming your trades. LOL!!

      Be HONEST with yourself so you can move forward. Look at what you wrote the past 2.5 years. Tops, Bear Market, 980 S&P etc. Why not write about BULL Market, Buy the DIPS, SP 1600 instead of 980.

      Delete
    2. The bulls and the bears made money. 2012 was choppy. I bought all the major dips last year June, Nov, and Dec. Bought them all, and bullish charts were posted at these times.

      Delete
    3. Too BAD you did not post it. But we seen your posting your position in UVXY from 17 to 3 in July to September. LOL!!! How's that for a trade?

      Oh btw, we also seen your trades for this year, and that's what count. LOL!!!

      Once you make money, then let us know. For now you are DOWN 65% and 200 points are your shorts. LOL!!!

      Delete
    4. I've been waiting to build up aggressive short positions.

      The large Cycle is in play.

      Delete
    5. For now you are DOWN 65% and 200 points on your shorts. LOL!!! Let us know once you sell for a profit.

      Wouldn't it be easier to just be long this year instead of trying to catch each top?

      Delete
    6. I went long in Nov near the bottom of the Cycle. It is too dangerous up here to be long with the large Cycle top of this magnitude.

      Delete
    7. It seems like the Nov trade was the only good trade you made the past three years. Good job! Now let's talk about being down 200 points and 65%. What did you learn from this?

      Trying to catch a top is a dangerous game, huh? Imagine if you just bought and held every single dips. You would have been huge. Even if you held your xiv, you would have been upo 150%. Now, that's something to brag about.

      Delete
    8. The Cycle shows a large decline. That is what is important.

      Delete
  10. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  11. SC, do you have any sense of timing for the move from A to P?

    In looking at your charts above, the move from A to P seems much quicker than the move from N to A. Since N to A has taken about six months, that implies we might see P within the next month or two.

    On the other hand, the market seems to have taken several times as long from A to P as it spent in the expanding diagonal structure immediately prior to A. The market has been in that expanding diagonal since March (2 months). If the relative proportions hold, that implies P might be six months or more away.

    What are your thoughts on this? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good question. Yes, the expanding structure was slow to play out. The move from A to P can occur much quicker than it looks on the Cycle.

      Looking at the last chart N to A took 8 bars time. A to P was 2 bars time. The ratio can be similar to this so 6 months for N to A. A to P is about a quarter of the time. 6 weeks is a rough estimate.

      Of course we can gauge the timing better once the decline to P actually is underway and unfolding.

      Delete
  12. Sc, if VIX still needs a complacency low drop to 11-12, then how can you say point A has been met? Wouldnt a drop in Vix mean another pop of SPX to 1700's?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great question. The target for Point A has been met. It's just a target. That doesn't mean the rally is over just yet. I do think it is nearly so, and it looks about right compared to the Cycle.

      VIX is a strange beast. One possibility I am considering is that SPX may drop and then bounce to put in a lower high. VIX could test under 12 on that move.

      Delete
    2. Also sometimes VIX can make a decent size move with only small movement in SPX. Options expiration coming up.

      Delete
  13. Half today's SPX 1660 is 830. Good to remember for Z.

    ReplyDelete
  14. The mkt has almost reached my target of 1680, looking for 100 point pullback at most.

    We should then rally to new highs....my top call will be next year sometime at around 1850-1900.

    But who cares....trade what you see, live in the moment. Don't look for things that haven't formed yet.

    Still long UVXY at 5.92.

    ReplyDelete
  15. "The Cycle shows a large decline. That is what is important."

    Correct! That's why you are down 200 points and 65%. The cycle is what is important, not your returns.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I went long in Nov near the bottom of the Cycle. It is too dangerous up here to be long with the large Cycle top of this magnitude.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I've been waiting to build up aggressive short positions.

    The large Cycle is in play.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Interesting chart over at the high rev's open house compares
    1987 crash timeline with today's INDU - looks frightening!!

    bloghttps://securecdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/493/4381/original.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, interesting. Will have to keep an eye on that!

      Delete
  19. I don't know if the fist link worked / if not try this one - it is located in the comments section May 14, 2013/http://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.com

    https://securecdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/492/8623/original.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  20. The only thing that worries me is everyone seems so bearish at the moment....would be nice to see a few more people calling for higher levels.

    I can't find one 'decent' blog that is bullish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with that, but some more time should build up complacency.

      Delete
  21. New to this blog, just a quick question about your Deja Vu Cycle on a larger scale chart that contains the "z" downside target ... are those Daily or Weekly bars?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are daily bars on the Cycle, but in SPX the Cycle has been playing out much slower. In SPX the bars have varied in time between weekly and monthly.

      Delete
  22. PAYDAY,

    If your around, what is your sense on UVXY at the moment? I know you watch them much more than I do + being quite long myself at 5.92 it would be nice to have a different view.

    They do seem to be holding extremely well & look set to jump but I dont want to let my bias opinion get the better of me.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UVXY due for a bounce $7.5-8 ....getting tired of waiting. I added to my UVXY at 6.4 and $6 so you have better entry point.

      UVXY needs sustained move above $8 before change in trend imo.

      What works best is to watch VIX and exit UVXY on any VIX moves above 17-18 regardless of UVXY price...then add UVXY on any move below 13 VIX...so i've been buyer at these prices.

      Delete
    2. Of course, once VIX breaks thru the ceiling at 25 all bets are off, therefore I always keep a small core UVXY position as well.

      Delete
    3. Yes, there is resistance around $8. I think it'll test around that level, settle back, then breakout for real.

      Delete
  23. I think UVXY will likely pop to $7.50 to $8 initially. It is not clear that it has bottomed just yet though. If there is downside not likely much since SPX has already overshot the red line in the Cycle there SPX upside should be limited.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Yes I tend to agree, my target is $7 - $7.50.

    Today might be a mini-IV down & then the final pop tomorrow / early next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There might a little shakeout on UVXY where it gaps down one day and then surges up to that $7.50 to $8 area.

      Delete
    2. The 50 dma for UVXY is at $7.24. I think it'll pop and test above that this time.

      Delete
  25. Good to know the 50 dma, thanks....

    Not so sure we get a gap down this time round but I'm saving my chips just incase I'm wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  26. "The Cycle shows a large decline. That is what is important."

    The cycle is what is important, not your returns? That's why you are down 200 points and 65 because the cycle is important?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Yes, the Cycle is what is important. Z is wayyyyyyyyyyy down!

    I'm preparing for the crash in the Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I'm preparing to buy at 5.92 & sell at 7...anything more is icing on the cake!

    Don't get carried away with the charts...wait for the mkt to speak.

    ReplyDelete
  29. "I'm preparing for the crash in the Cycle."

    Were you prepare for the crash cycle since 2011?

    These are your words, right? So you were WRONG?

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    Monday, December 5, 2011
    SPY - Top is IN!

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Thursday, January 19, 2012
    $SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012
    $SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull

    ReplyDelete
  30. There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  32. SC, you think we can push this thing to SnP500 1750? Another 100pts up?

    Seems pretty realistic to me.


    Come on bulls!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good on you bluemoon you had better go all in long here then if you are so bullish

      Delete
  33. I think most likely SPX dips for a few days and top out next week. Little upside imo.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i'm thinking this could blow off another 100pts from 1650 to 1750, then roll over.

      Basically short sqzzzzzzzz all the way up. Momentum computer algo's can push it higher no problem.

      They got juice and they got speed!

      Its all computers trading anyway.

      Delete
    2. 1750 just sounds right.

      nice round number.

      Delete
  34. The higher this goes the faster/harder it will fall.... All blow-off parabolic moves end the same disasterous way!

    I still have silver 2011 blow off in my mind.....now look where its at!

    XIV at crossroads again. Next 50 cents up down will establish vix&uvxy trend for next several days? Do we retest $25 or back to 20?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Today's price action feels more like we are now finally getting near the top....

    Added to my UVXY position. Long now at 5.87.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Yes, it's sort of churning here.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Very excited about the gold silver mining companies....getting verynclose to long term buy.... Wll pull the trigger when spot price level out a bit ...another 10-20% down.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I'm good on uvxy. No more additions unless VIX hits 11's....IF it gets that low

    ReplyDelete
  39. I'll post the Silver Gold Cycle this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Are you still looking for VIX under 12? What target on UVXY you looking to add?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ideally 11.50ish VIX would indicate extreme complacency imo.

      Delete
    2. I think we'll probably see that, but how/when it gets there will determine what price for UVXY so just going to let things play out....

      Delete
    3. 12.26 now for VIX so we're not that far off.

      Delete
    4. This can still take some time to play out though, VIX may see some pops, but I would like to see it around that level.

      Delete
    5. I'm a buyer of VIX 11's for at least 40%pop to 16's.

      Delete
  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  42. Shorted SPX at 1667. Maximum overweight position.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some Cycles that I use suggest Monday might be a good time to short, but SPX has overshot the red line enough to look right in the expanding formation.

      Delete
  43. For UVXY I'm going to wait. VIX could pop at any time now, but just not quite into the range I want to see it. Will see how it looks next week for UVXY.

    ReplyDelete
  44. SC .. do you see UVXY going over 10 dollars anytime in the next year to 2 years?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I do. In this model SPX is in the topping process, and on a drop to Point P, UVXY target likely is in the high teens.

      Delete
    2. Drop to P point would take SPX to about what level?

      Delete
    3. Target range 1380 to 1420 for Point P.

      Delete
  45. I dont understand how tvix and uvxy are making new lows when vix is still above its march high

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is because of the structure of the etfs. The etfs trade off the VIX futures rather than the VIX itself.

      Delete
  46. This was 9 weeks VIX higher than the mid-March low.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Unknown, when the reversal happens, you wont know what hit you!

    First youll buy even more "on the dips"....even more once the 50 ema is hit.

    You'll "back up the truck" at the 200 ema...

    Then watch 4.5 yrs of gains evaporate in a few weeks.

    Anyone chasing this market is crazy! SPX already 185 pts ab0ve its 200 ema...that is a record. Even high than 160 pts in 2000 weeks before the 42% crash!

    ReplyDelete
  48. Spx now 20pts above point A overshoot... How much more overshoot can there be? Is 1700's probable?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I doubt it though a little is possible. The overshoot looks very similar compared to the Cycle already.

      SPX looks ripe in both time and price compared to the Cycle.

      Delete
  49. SC - Would you describe the time from point A to P as immenient or can this linger on for several more weeks / months?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Cycle topping process is very mature, therefore SPX is likely to top out and roll over very soon.

      In the Cycle, once it turns down at A then a decline to near the horizontal red line is next. I do expect a bounce near the horizontal, and lower high to form. For SPX bounce just above the red horizontal ~1560 or so to form lower high. This whole process is likely to take weeks.

      Once the horizontal red line breaks, the Cycle accelerates down. There is chop and rapid declines down to P.

      Delete
    2. How high do you see $VIX get on a drop to the red line? You said you expect UVXY to reach the teens on drop to P, how about the initial drop to the red line?

      Delete
    3. With SPX testing near the red horizontal (probably just above), VIX 16.50 to 17.

      Delete
  50. Silver acting wild and looks like it just capitulated. My Silver Cycle will explain why. I am planning to post the large Silver Cycle tonight.

    ReplyDelete