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Monday, August 5, 2013

$VIX - Cycle 1

The VIX is at the green arrow in the Cycle.  The market is approaching a level of extreme complacency.      

30min Chart
















VIX Cycle 1:














107 comments:

  1. VIX due to pop to 13.50 short term according to this Cycle. VIX right at bottom of the green candle.

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  2. What is green arrow.. other than an arrow you drew on chart... arrow is not a trendline and appears insignificant

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  3. Interesting. Can you attach any time scale to this cycle? Looks like you expect new lows in VIX before any significant rally (the return to 13.5 doesn't count as significant in my book).

    I take it the beige arrow is the drop to 1650? Then a revisit of the lows (for VIX) and a revisit of the highs (for SPX) before the big fall?

    Thanks...

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    1. Yes, I will attach a time scale to this, and believe this will be quite useful for timing.

      I do see VIX dribbling a little lower this month into an important low. Then spike up to the orange arrow. Yes, that is the retracement move for SPX.

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    2. Thanks. I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on timing.

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    3. I did show those equal timing boxes and will have dates coming. Can get accurate timing with this Cycle. Many of my other Cycles are larger scale so this is the one to use for timing.

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  4. The orange arrow should be around 15 to 16.

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  5. Its August 5th so for month of August VIX dribbles lower... to what 10?

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  6. All these small moves..and meanwhile.. VXX, TVIX, UVXY just continue to decay..day after day.
    --

    The only time to be meddling in either of those crazy things is AFTER the volatility has come back.

    It is laughable to consider that VIX 13s would count as anything other than 'mere noise'.

    Even VIX 15s barely count as a moderate gain.

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  7. What are those spikes correlating to? Vix 40's?

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    1. Yes, around 40 for VIX will be the target. UVXY should continue to rise as those spikes in VIX occur. UVXY would be expected to continue to rise even after VIX had topped. Similar situation as 2011.

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  8. Spx:vix ratio at all time highs 140's....even higher than in 2007

    http://www.ponziworld.blogspot.ca/2013/08/mass-complacency.html#more

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  9. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spvxsp.id/charts?CountryCode=xx
    no contango . New low Index , new low UVXY and Tvix. is quite simple. October 2011 index value 22.000 , today 1290..... - 98%...

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  10. SC , THE high in the index was October 2011.... while Vix cash printed a Lower low....

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    1. Yes, the VIX futures went way up after VIX cash had already peaked in Aug 2011. Likely the same would occur this time around.

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  11. Someone else agrees with you on the Market taking a fall SC.

    "Bear Hunting: Bad Vibes on the Market"

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704755304578631012062362262.html?mod=googlenews_barrons

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  12. SC,
    How much time lapse between the green and orange arrow?
    Thanks

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  13. Right on time today we're seeing the VIX pop as shown in the Cycle. The orange arrow is on pace for around the end of the month.

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    1. Are you holding your position in UVXY through this month?

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    2. I'm expecting UVXY probably see a little lower then rise quite strongly into the end of Aug.

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  14. Is orange arrow is end of august then when is the spike? Nov? Seems a long time for vix to be bouncing along so low..

    Spx crash start is when? End of sept?

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    1. We'll see a plunge for SPX this month similar to Nikkei in July which will be the dominant move for the month. However, it is just the retracement.

      I have dates coming, and I expect this Cycle to work really well for timing.

      This is an important time for VIX. This Cycle shows the low and a new bull market to start for VIX this month. Ultimately VIX over 100 from this low due shortly.

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  15. SC , DO you think to cover Uvxy with XIV in a few days... ?

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    1. That can work for short term, however, XIV is extremely expensive with the new bull market for VIX about to start this month.

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  16. tomorrow... is the date for the start Armstrong's crash cycle....

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    1. CAN YOU steer us to the article..as I missed it on the site! Prob just me! syd

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  17. do you see UVXY making new lows from here or are you holding for now

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  18. UVXY probably see lower according to the Cycle then spike into the end of the month.

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  19. if your cycle predicted UVXY drop why are you holding from 48?

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    1. VIX low due soon with new VIX bull market to start.

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  20. The green, orange, and red arrows appear to be roughly evenly spaced, and the distance between the green and red arrows is about the same as the distance from the red arrow to the VIX peak.

    If the chart is linearly proportional in terms of time, and you see the orange arrow arriving at the end of August, then the red arrow (beginning of the crash) would be around the end of September, and the VIX peaks would be late November.

    Is that accurate, or do you not expect the timing on the chart to be linear in that way?

    Thanks again...

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  21. Yes, there are equal time measurements, and I expect it to be accurate to measure in a linear fashion.

    It will be more accurate to measure as this Cycle progresses of course, but yes can make some initial measurements.

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  22. If u r expexting vix to make lower low then sp will make higher high. 1720 1740

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    1. Lately there has been only small movement in SPX, therefore small amount only looks possible.

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  23. SC, you will not be able to predict the actual crash.

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  24. You think gold will take out 1180?

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  25. GOLD UPDATE

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    1. Hi Joed. If I am reading your chart right, you see 1200 or so around Aug 12th time frame...right?

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  26. Predicting a crash/big movement is not what the game is about....that's just ego.

    Buying & selling for profits is all that counts. Being long UVXY at av price of $96 but getting THE top of the mkt called doesn't do a lot for one's P&L.

    I'm long of UVXY at $42 (5% capital) which isn't very clever either....but I never double up on a bad trade.

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  27. This morning VIX is into the spot shown on the Cycle.

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  28. too many gaps in vix, which will be filled

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    1. VIX should stall not much higher short term and settle back again.

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    2. Chand, those gaps can fill, and UVXY could still have you in a loss. Pretty soon it will roll over to the next contract presently trading at 15.03.

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  29. I am talking about, open gap today and yesterday, so there will be another rally in market, which people are saying 5 of 3.

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  30. SS76 no contango in UVXY only index like Benchmark and a natural leverage matematic decay ....

    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spvxsp.id/charts?CountryCode=xx

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    1. Hi meteo. Exactly what is that link you posted....don't know what I am looking at. Right, so UVXY tracks VIX futures, which right now its tracking August which is at 13.88. September is at 15.35. in about 5 - 6 days, UVXY will track September. If cash vix moves back to the 11 area, then expect September to move back to the 12 - 13 area......that is the decay in action.

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    2. Right now UVXY is tracking more Sept than Aug futures. About 60% Sept. The fund rolls over gradually.

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  31. I disagree. Uvxy tracking no vix future index , but SHORT TERM VIX FUTURE SP500 Index
    (factsheet ETF and ETN ) .

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    1. "tomorrow... is the date for the start Armstrong's crash cycle...."

      Can you show us where this article is? Tx, syd

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  32. It's the same thing. The short term VIX futures index is made up of the first and second month VIX futures contracts.

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    1. This is a quote from the UVXY fund manager:

      "The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index measures the movements of a combination of VIX futures and is designed to track changes in the expectation for one month in the future. The index maintains an average weighted settlement date of one month by rolling a portion of the position in the first month VIX futures contract into the second month VIX futures contract on a daily basis."

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  33. SC.

    To invalidate this break out in the SnP - the index needs to close below 1550 on weekly basis.

    Until this happens CRASH scenario is OUT.

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  34. That is the drawback to trading trends with moving averages versus using Cycles that show turning points. Your system cannot see the crash coming until it already falls more than 150 points.

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  35. SC, i am sorry but how much of the 600pt move from the 2011 did your system capture?

    Moving averages are tertiary indicators to me. I do not trade based on them but they do help with longer term trends.

    Two most important things to me are TIME and PRICE level.

    Close above 1550 was super bullish on long term charts as failure to move above that level in 2007 resulted in the CRASH.

    Picking tops now becomes a fools game.

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  36. But sc, you said no significant Vix moves until spx 1550 is breached, so there is time for uvxy entry even with 150 pt drop...lower risk to enter at 1550 ...might miss $5-10 of uvxy, thats about it.

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    1. VIX will definitely make a significant move on a 150 point drop. It will move aggressively after the support breaks also.

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  37. SC

    On your SP cycle are you look for the 1650ish on this dump? Tx, syd

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    1. Second half of Aug is when we are due for that move in this Cycle.

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    2. Tx SC so where are we now in your cycle ..........

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    3. In this VIX Cycle we formed the green candle today shown at the green arrow.

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    4. Srry SC I was asking about your SP cycle chart! Tx, syd

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    5. It is the yellow arrow.

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  38. Given nobody can predict the top, we have a level of 1709 assumed top & so an 18 point stop loss.

    UVXY will be a buy at $34 (.618% retracement from the high) with a stop loss of $1.75.

    Risk reward is good & worth taking the trade in my view.

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    1. Wrong, UVXY is a buy at $34.40 if it gets there again.
      http://americanbulls.com/members/StatusPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=UVXY

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    2. No I was right....it did trade to $34 & it did bounce perfectly off that level.

      Sold for $1.20 profit.

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  39. We had monday and tuesday cycle time up brent but this was very weak and short.Yesterday was bad close,maybe brent can began a down trend lost 106$ when wtic,not buy here if not up strong today to 108,not believe.
    This trend can attack index stocks in future days,not sign buy and next 2 weeks out stocks will are good or buy few puts protect portafolio in days volatil.
    Regards.

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  40. SC, Having a difficult time with your charts. Do you see the SPX dropping next or moving higher?

    Do you see UVXY dropping next or moving higher?

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    1. This VIX Cycle did an excellent job of showing the pop that occurred yesterday with the green arrow and candle.

      According to this VIX Cycle, VIX should decline to 12 and spend a few days around that level next then decline lower.

      That is the near term picture. The Cycle shows the VIX low this month with a new bull market for VIX to start this month.

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    2. Hi SC

      Are you still in your UVXY position then?

      If you are still in UVXY, why you not exit yesterday then if the cycle pop was suppose to happen yesterday and now downtrend continue.


      Thanks!

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    3. I'm mostly interested in the big picture move. The new bull to start for VIX this month. As well there is a larger spike coming for VIX later this month in this Cycle anyway.

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    4. But before we get to this spike, UVXY probably go lower. I thought you mention before you want to be in better position, so with this downtrend coming, should you sell now and get into it cheaper? confused.


      Thanks!

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    5. Bottom line is that VIX looks like it can see lower but only short term, then a spike to 15-16, and a huge move.

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  41. I think SC's intent was to sell the UVXY's purchased at 48.50 on the brief spike if SPX revisited 1650 in order to get a better entry point either in low 40's or mid to high 30's. The problem was SPX only went as low as 1670's before rebounding quickly and UVXY had already dropped too much to 39's and the "pop" only got it back to 41/42 very briefly before plummeting almost on a daily basis to low 32's.

    Even with this 25 point drop in SPX this week, UVXY can only muster up a 15% increase from its 52-week low to just under $37. Even at that price any investment or trade in UVXY in the mid to high 40's is severely underwater and at current prices I doubt a further $2 or $3 decline really makes any difference if you stuck with it still.

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  42. Eric Janszen at Itulip has only made a few market calls in the past 14 years and every one of them has been basically correct. He called the March 2000 top in stocks, the 2007 top in stocks, he called the bottom of the market in March 2009 (he was two weeks off on that call). He called the top in silver on April 29th 2011 one day before the massacre. He is now calling for another market crash starting most likely at the end of Jan. 2014. He has said: "the 2014 stock market crash will be triggered by the global bond market's reaction to fears that the change in Fed leadership will produce a significant change in monetary policy that was negative to bond prices."

    Anyone can read his June 28th 2013 post for free on his website.

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    1. After careful review, it feels like rant. Crash window after January 2014 - December 2014, how about a correction window? What do you think

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  43. Look, Vix September futures are at 14.90 right now. Even if Cash VIX (currently at 12.73) drops to mid 11's, UVXY could drop much more since its following mostly September futures now. This is the big problem with UVXY. Even with a pop in cash vix, UVXY may not move much.

    If your timing is not perfect, forget about it.

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  44. UVXY needs to hold 33.25 (.718%) retracement otherwise its new lows once again.

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  45. Quiet market. SPX still just hovering around my pink line at 1694.

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  46. looks like lower peak on vix, so I feel there should be another rally in spx and vix should fill the gap around 12.

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    1. Yes, that is the key for VIX short term. If 12 holds next week then 15-16 for VIX.

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  47. http://stockcharts.com/public/1317031
    posting his vix chart again, when he had postev iv on vix around 11, I did not believe, but it happened. It looks like we might be following post election cycle in dow, with the fall in down in septhttp://seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones_postelection.html

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  48. Took profit on Silver position at $21.20 from entry at $18.80.

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    1. Where are we on your chart..........is this the exit for the SMALL bump up? Would be great if there was some estimate of dates on charts! Tx again, syd

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    2. Dates are coming. Right now we're just churning sideways so waiting for the Cycle to progress.

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    3. Sc, still looking like 1780+ on S&P by Sept 23 (after fed meeting) and similar correction / sell off like last year in October/November prior to December/January rally. Without catalysts (could be one as sequester in Sept), hard to see sustained selling in markets.

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    4. Thanks Tushar, let's see how things shape up next. Quiet now, but should see volatility increase as we get into the fall months.

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    5. The VIX does not look ready for a sustained move lower in markets yet but is slowly configuring for that move.

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    6. Good point on VIX, I agree.

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  49. Time future,february-april 2014 is maybe danguer and can hard down stockmarket but not believe more 20%,this should are more in time in 2021.
    Today index are weak.brent or wtic not have bull,maybe a correction in next days is here.Bear time.
    The pair eur/usd believe to go level 1.60 in 1 year this can are very down in usd/chf.
    Regards.

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  50. SC, I was wondering why you took early profits on your silver position. Here is my guess. From mid August, you expect stock markets to decline sharply which could push gold and silver lower. Then from September, you will play "the safe haven" trade and buy again precious metals.
    Thank you for your thoughts !!!

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    1. In the short term I am doubtful that Silver is ready to follow through to the upside. Seems more likely to dip. I don't expect a lower low from June though so will be looking to load up again on a dip.

      Target of $26 from my Silver Cycle so there is more to go imo, just decided to sit on the sidelines for a while as things develop.

      I still hold Gold, but if it trades a bit higher may look to take profit on it too.

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  51. VIX break below 11.. shortly. UVXY death....no revival.
    1680 did hold.

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  52. Agree BeCareful. UVXY is tracking September now and it is at 14.83, expect it to drop to around 12.8, that is another 40% decline for UVXY/HVU.

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  53. VIX bottoms this week and it will not break below 11 and should likely hold around 12 +/- a bit. US market to have a relatively significant initial correction just around the corner, and VIX should also have an initial pop to coincide with that first salvo.

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  54. the crash had to be 2 years ago .... only when the last of the bears will become bullish, the market will collapse.

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  55. https://twitter.com/Meteo1970/status/367656670748372992/photo/1

    Hy SC , the MEGAPHONE PATTERN , BROADENING TOP is completed on DJTRAN.
    What do you think about ?

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  56. The downward trend is now I do not believe let's have a collapse I am very upward for the dow or nasdaq but in the next days to buy serious to lose. The beginning of next week can be very weak a cut sera well to cover and buy cheap.
    Regards.

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  57. SC,
    Where do you think we are in the vix cycle chart?
    Thanks

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    1. VIX spiking up to the orange arrow in the Cycle.

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  58. Looks like a nice double bottom now in UVXY....

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  59. SPX update has been posted.

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