SPX is trading in an expanding formation as predicted by the Deja Vu Cycle. In the Cycle, it does overshoot the red line to reach point A. Horizontal support held in April, and the Cycle accounts for that horizontal.
This is the 8th week that VIX has been trending up, and that is a serious warning. The behaviour of VIX is also evidence in support of the large Cycle continuing. However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may decline closer to the mid-March bottom.
30min Chart
The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.
Point N in the large scale Cycle is the 1343 SPX November 2012 low.
ReplyDeleteThe VIX has NOT been trending higher, it has been making lower lows for past 3 weeks
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with SC on this one: the VIX made its low on March 14th, made a higher low on April 12, and remains above that low. It's been making higher lows since mid-March, roughly 7 weeks ago.
DeleteJust to be clear I think VIX will probably see lower than the April low but stay above the March low.
DeleteIn any case it is clearly holding quite well considering the rally in SPX.
SC, so what do you see UVXY at, mid $5's?
DeleteLet's see how things shape up next and can fine tune a number.
DeleteSC, I just wanted to point out that you've drawn a megaphone/broadening top formation on SPX in red on your chart above. But if you zoom out a bit, the upper red line turns out to be a channel top. It isn't obvious to me that the next decline (which, I agree, should come soon) has to break through the channel line to your 1530s-40s bottom line (drawn in yellow on my chart).
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/nmScKSWrX4mr
Thank you for the chart!
DeleteYes, that is a good point, and it will be interesting to see what sort of interaction with the channel line occurs.
I believe your A is complete...
ReplyDeleteHi Unknown
DeleteCrazy, are you actually agreeing with SC for once?
Thanks!
What make you believe there is one "unknown" on the board?
ReplyDeleteYeah the internet does have a lot of idiot running around lol
DeleteHere are the history of the great market crash of 2012. The market was on fire between November 2011 til end of march 2012. After four months of mark crash calls with a 980 target price, the market finally corrected 10% beginning of April. Boy, if you keep throwing darts, sooner or later you ought to hit something, right? My point is, why not buy the dips and stay with the trend? Top callings can be disastrous.
ReplyDeleteSunday, November 20, 2011
SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
$SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now
Monday, December 5, 2011
SPY - Top is IN!
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
$SPX - Triple Top
Sunday, December 11, 2011
$SPX - DAX Leading Down
Monday, December 19, 2011
SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
$SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
$INDU - Major Decline Next
Thursday, December 29, 2011
$SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow
Saturday, January 7, 2012
$SPX - Major Top Roadmap!
Thursday, January 19, 2012
$SPX - Eye of the Hurricane
Saturday, January 21, 2012
VIX - Bottomed
Monday, January 23, 2012
$SPX - Correction Due
Saturday, February 4, 2012
$SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
$SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
$SPX - Ready to Decline
Saturday, March 10, 2012
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
I did buy every dip last year. June, Nov, and Dec. The charts are there to prove it.
ReplyDeleteUSDX looks to be getting ready for a ride north.
ReplyDeleteSC What will it take to confirm that the blue arrow low is in?
ReplyDeleteWhat are you expecting the next few days? Still a break to test March lows next week?
SPX overshoot the red line, and VIX under 12 still look possible.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the charts SC!
ReplyDeleteNot to get too far ahead of myself, but Point Z correlates to what exactly? 600 S&P? 80 Vix? 100 UVXY?
Measured approximate target for point Z is in the 900's. The analysis has shown some resistance in the 70-80 range for VIX although may exceed that. Maximum 120 to 130 could be possible for VIX. UVXY 145 target seems possible. It all seems reasonable given history since VXO reached 172 in 1987. Z is a similar size % move, perhaps not quite as fast a drop as in 1987.
DeleteOf course these targets are assuming that the large Cycles continue. Both the Deja Vu Cycle for SPX and Mount Everest Cycle for UVXY are in agreement and predict the same large move. This makes it intriguing.
SC your hilarious.. UVXY target 145 seems possible!!!! Did you mean $1.45 ?? Your down almost 200 spx handles and still calling for crash ... just curious how many shares are you long UVXY ? my guess 100, if you were large trader you would have blown out years ago, history of this blog is evidence of that... good luck
ReplyDeleteThe Cycles are clearly pointing to an unusually large move. $145.00 is reasonable given history.
ReplyDeleteYes, I had the same debate with many who were adamant that the Silver crash predicted by the Cycle was impossible. Yes, history is proof - the Cycle works. Deja Vu.
September 23, 2011:
"This has been an historically awful day for precious metals.
Here’s just how grim the selloff in silver was today:
The $6.49, 18% decline to $30.05 an ounce (that’s the September contract) was the worst dollar loss
since January 22, 1980 and the worst percentage loss since April 27, 1987.
It was the second-biggest dollar loss in history and the fifth-largest percentage loss in history.
Silver has tumbled 26% this week."
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/23/silver-has-its-worst-day-since-1987/
UVXY $145!! These are just figures pulled out of thin air.
ReplyDelete100 different people could show 100 different charts, all it does is provide hope for those who are long & wrong.
Once (if) the decaying beast trades above $14.50, then that would be the time to start getting bullish on the little rascal..
Until that time, it's just another trade gone wrong in my humble opinion.
I'm long at 5.92...looking to add if the mkt goes higher early this week.
These targets are simply measurements from the large scale Cycle Point Z.
ReplyDeleteSC...these are your own words is it not?
ReplyDeleteSunday, November 20, 2011
SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
$SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now
Monday, December 5, 2011
SPY - Top is IN!
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
$SPX - Triple Top
Sunday, December 11, 2011
$SPX - DAX Leading Down
Monday, December 19, 2011
SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
$SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
$INDU - Major Decline Next
Thursday, December 29, 2011
$SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow
Saturday, January 7, 2012
$SPX - Major Top Roadmap!
Thursday, January 19, 2012
$SPX - Eye of the Hurricane
Saturday, January 21, 2012
VIX - Bottomed
Monday, January 23, 2012
$SPX - Correction Due
Saturday, February 4, 2012
$SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
$SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
$SPX - Ready to Decline
Saturday, March 10, 2012
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period.
DeleteSolar eclipse was May 10th, and lunar eclipse full moon is May 25th.
ReplyDelete"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
SC, Have you ever used CVOL as a volitility ETF? I wasn't aware of that one until recently and have been trying to get more information on it.
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm not familiar with it.
ReplyDeleteSPX trading at the red line 1640. Has not overshot it yet though.
ReplyDeleteDon't speak too soon!
ReplyDeleteSPX does have a small overshoot now. I'd like to see VIX lower but VIX is up lol.
ReplyDeleteYES...interesting isn't it, bought some more UVXY.
ReplyDeleteI'm still thinking the VIX can come down with some time, but the fact it is holding so well is quite telling.
ReplyDeleteSC How can the VIX spike some and UVXY hardly moved?
DeleteIs there a lag? Does that action concern you that it may not follow the VIX like you think it can? (the other Phil) Thanks
Generally, both VIX and UVXY move directionally together. However, UVXY is pegged to the VIX futures not the VIX itself. So they are different.
DeleteThe best example is to look at TVIX in 2011. The VIX peaked in August 2011 and put in a lower high in October 2011. TVIX continued to rise from August to October 2011. Overall it gained over 700% and doubled from Aug to Oct with VIX actually just putting in a lower high.
DeleteSo it works both ways.
Not so sure the VIX goes lower to be honest....my guess is its made the low now as we are nearing the end of this 5th wave up.
ReplyDeleteMax upside is 1680 IMO.
SC...these are your own words is it not?
ReplyDeleteSunday, November 20, 2011
SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
$SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now
Monday, December 5, 2011
SPY - Top is IN!
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
$SPX - Triple Top
Sunday, December 11, 2011
$SPX - DAX Leading Down
Monday, December 19, 2011
SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
$SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
$INDU - Major Decline Next
Thursday, December 29, 2011
$SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow
Saturday, January 7, 2012
$SPX - Major Top Roadmap!
Thursday, January 19, 2012
$SPX - Eye of the Hurricane
Saturday, January 21, 2012
VIX - Bottomed
Monday, January 23, 2012
$SPX - Correction Due
Saturday, February 4, 2012
$SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
$SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
$SPX - Ready to Decline
Saturday, March 10, 2012
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period.
DeleteJust pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Today, SPX reached that level, and we do have an overshoot of the red line suggested by the Cycle.
ReplyDeleteSCMay 6, 2013 at 10:41 AM
"It'll be helpful to see how the market behaves this week to fine tune that number and timing. 1640+ it seems. If it is similar to the Cycle it may overshoot the upper red line."
Now let's see if SPX can spend enough time over the red line to cool off the VIX a little more.
ReplyDelete"There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period."
ReplyDeleteSo the bulls did not make money by buying every DIPS the last year? LOL!!!ALL time highs and you have been calling for a top since 2011.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
$SPX - Major Top Roadmap!
Saturday, February 4, 2012
$SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway
Saturday, March 10, 2012
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The bulls and the bears made money. 2012 was choppy. I bought all the major dips last year June, Nov, and Dec. Bought them all, and bullish charts were posted at these times.
ReplyDeleteSure you did. Be honest with yourself so God will not punish you. LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteThis is 8 and a half weeks now that VIX higher than mid-March!
ReplyDeleteThis is 4 months now & you are down almost 200 points on your shorts, 65% on your uvxy. Buying the dip would have work pretty good this year, huh?
ReplyDeleteThe large Cycle correctly predicted the sharp raly phase to start in November and caught a lot of the SPX rally. Many large cap stocks actually peaked in February or March.
ReplyDeleteI'm building up shorts for the next phase of the Cycle. Looking to build up aggressive shorts soon.
It is the low quality stocks such as TSLA and NFLX that have run lately. Typical in the late stages of a rally.
ReplyDeleteHope you are right soon SC.... I do find the VIX action puzzling...10% higher than March even though SPX up 150 pts! Strange!
ReplyDeleteIt's a huge difference and very serious warning imo.
ReplyDeleteSerious? Explain?
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall SPX drop 150 pt last Nov while VIX hardly budged...maybe the VIX is just plain broken or no longer correlates to SPX moves...
The VIX was a great indicator in Novemeber. VIX didn't spike last Nov because it was forseeing this rally in SPX coming. VIX was correct and predicted rally at that time.
DeleteSince then VIX spiked Dec, Feb, April, and now is holding up surprisingly well since March.
So now it is the opposite, VIX is giving a serious warning and signalling a decline ahead for SPX.
92% Of Investors Expect A Great Summer (Bank of America)
ReplyDeleteA new investor poll from BAML shows that only 8% of investors think we will see another 'sell in May and go away.' "Only 8% of investors believe that we are at risk of seeing markets repeat the pattern of 2012 and 2011 with significant risk-off episodes in the summer following data weakness in the spring." Moreover, most surveyed did not seem worried about a rise in bond yields.
May 14 - 16 timeframe is here and as suggested this is a ttt moment. Www.timethetrade.blogspot.ca
ReplyDeleteMay 14 - 16 timeframe is here and as suggested this is a ttt moment. Www.timethetrade.blogspot.ca
ReplyDeleteI do not understand this site...there are at least two other alternate charts other than the primary one and the author in March favored alternate 1 but now favoring primary 1?
DeleteSo i guess the stock market now crashes until July 29 ...unless its only till May 20 then up to November?
EMINI 1 YEAR
ReplyDeletehttp://imageshack.us/a/img801/5936/eminid.jpg
so are you saying the target for the top is 1679?
DeleteApparently there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that said this may be the last month the Fed ads $85 billion of QE money and will begin to cut back. If that's true this could very well be close to a top.
ReplyDeleteUS DOLLAR
ReplyDeletehttp://imageshack.us/a/img109/3427/89633081.jpg
SC, how far of overshoot is in Point A? Are we there yet?
ReplyDeleteGood question. We did reach the estimate for Point A yesterday both in time and price. In other words the minimum overshoot has been met.
DeleteLet's see how it plays out this week. I'd still like to see if the VIX can dip. So at this point we cannot say it is finished, but by this model it is near.
Market does feel heavy. A 3-4 day dip for SPX could be possible here.
ReplyDeleteSo the VIX may pop soon, then may see that final dip for VIX under 12.
ReplyDeleteMy five favorite CALLS by SC,
ReplyDeleteMonday, December 5, 2011
SPY - Top is IN!
Saturday, January 7, 2012
$SPX - Major Top Roadmap!
Thursday, January 19, 2012
$SPX - Eye of the Hurricane
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
$SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull
Saturday, March 10, 2012
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Well,
ReplyDeleteCycles - shmykles! How it turned out, heh?! SnP500 at 1650. Who would have known? When 1600 level was mentioned as next target months ago - you were laughed at.
Keep it simple.
10 daily moving average, 20 daily moving average, 50 daily moving average. USE STOPS!
These gave last buy in december at 140 SnP500, STOP just under 140! Give a little room!
300pts in the bank.
There are no sell signals yet. STOP IS MOVED UP TO 160 on the remaining xx% (your #) of the long position initiated last year. Or just take all off the table and go for a nice vacation!
Keep it simple. There is no need for complicated cycles. They are simply too complicated to use reliably and profitably.
1680! And we were looking for 980!!!
ReplyDeleteSaturday, March 10, 2012
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
New post is up!
ReplyDelete