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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

$SPX - Cycle Expanding Formation Update

SPX touched the upper red line today.

SPX is trading in an expanding formation as predicted by the Deja Vu Cycle. In the Cycle, it does overshoot the red line to reach point A. Horizontal support held in April, and the Cycle accounts for that horizontal.

This is the 8th week that VIX has been trending up, and that is a serious warning.  The behaviour of VIX is also evidence in support of the large Cycle continuing.  However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may decline closer to the mid-March bottom.

30min Chart
















The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.

 
Deja Vu Cycle on a larger scale:

73 comments:

  1. Point N in the large scale Cycle is the 1343 SPX November 2012 low.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The VIX has NOT been trending higher, it has been making lower lows for past 3 weeks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have to agree with SC on this one: the VIX made its low on March 14th, made a higher low on April 12, and remains above that low. It's been making higher lows since mid-March, roughly 7 weeks ago.

      Delete
    2. Just to be clear I think VIX will probably see lower than the April low but stay above the March low.

      In any case it is clearly holding quite well considering the rally in SPX.

      Delete
    3. SC, so what do you see UVXY at, mid $5's?

      Delete
    4. Let's see how things shape up next and can fine tune a number.

      Delete
  3. SC, I just wanted to point out that you've drawn a megaphone/broadening top formation on SPX in red on your chart above. But if you zoom out a bit, the upper red line turns out to be a channel top. It isn't obvious to me that the next decline (which, I agree, should come soon) has to break through the channel line to your 1530s-40s bottom line (drawn in yellow on my chart).

    http://screencast.com/t/nmScKSWrX4mr

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for the chart!

      Yes, that is a good point, and it will be interesting to see what sort of interaction with the channel line occurs.

      Delete
  4. I believe your A is complete...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Unknown

      Crazy, are you actually agreeing with SC for once?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  5. What make you believe there is one "unknown" on the board?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah the internet does have a lot of idiot running around lol

      Delete
  6. Here are the history of the great market crash of 2012. The market was on fire between November 2011 til end of march 2012. After four months of mark crash calls with a 980 target price, the market finally corrected 10% beginning of April. Boy, if you keep throwing darts, sooner or later you ought to hit something, right? My point is, why not buy the dips and stay with the trend? Top callings can be disastrous.

    Sunday, November 20, 2011
    SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues

    Wednesday, November 30, 2011
    $SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now

    Monday, December 5, 2011
    SPY - Top is IN!

    Wednesday, December 7, 2011
    $SPX - Triple Top

    Sunday, December 11, 2011
    $SPX - DAX Leading Down

    Monday, December 19, 2011
    SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan

    Tuesday, December 20, 2011
    $SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th

    Tuesday, December 27, 2011
    $INDU - Major Decline Next

    Thursday, December 29, 2011
    $SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Thursday, January 19, 2012
    $SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

    Saturday, January 21, 2012
    VIX - Bottomed

    Monday, January 23, 2012
    $SPX - Correction Due

    Saturday, February 4, 2012
    $SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012
    $SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull

    Wednesday, February 29, 2012
    $SPX - Ready to Decline

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    ReplyDelete
  7. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  8. I did buy every dip last year. June, Nov, and Dec. The charts are there to prove it.

    ReplyDelete
  9. USDX looks to be getting ready for a ride north.

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  10. SC What will it take to confirm that the blue arrow low is in?
    What are you expecting the next few days? Still a break to test March lows next week?

    ReplyDelete
  11. SPX overshoot the red line, and VIX under 12 still look possible.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thanks for the charts SC!

    Not to get too far ahead of myself, but Point Z correlates to what exactly? 600 S&P? 80 Vix? 100 UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Measured approximate target for point Z is in the 900's. The analysis has shown some resistance in the 70-80 range for VIX although may exceed that. Maximum 120 to 130 could be possible for VIX. UVXY 145 target seems possible. It all seems reasonable given history since VXO reached 172 in 1987. Z is a similar size % move, perhaps not quite as fast a drop as in 1987.

      Of course these targets are assuming that the large Cycles continue. Both the Deja Vu Cycle for SPX and Mount Everest Cycle for UVXY are in agreement and predict the same large move. This makes it intriguing.

      Delete
  13. SC your hilarious.. UVXY target 145 seems possible!!!! Did you mean $1.45 ?? Your down almost 200 spx handles and still calling for crash ... just curious how many shares are you long UVXY ? my guess 100, if you were large trader you would have blown out years ago, history of this blog is evidence of that... good luck

    ReplyDelete
  14. The Cycles are clearly pointing to an unusually large move. $145.00 is reasonable given history.

    Yes, I had the same debate with many who were adamant that the Silver crash predicted by the Cycle was impossible. Yes, history is proof - the Cycle works. Deja Vu.


    September 23, 2011:

    "This has been an historically awful day for precious metals.

    Here’s just how grim the selloff in silver was today:
    The $6.49, 18% decline to $30.05 an ounce (that’s the September contract) was the worst dollar loss
    since January 22, 1980 and the worst percentage loss since April 27, 1987.

    It was the second-biggest dollar loss in history and the fifth-largest percentage loss in history.
    Silver has tumbled 26% this week."

    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/23/silver-has-its-worst-day-since-1987/

    ReplyDelete
  15. UVXY $145!! These are just figures pulled out of thin air.

    100 different people could show 100 different charts, all it does is provide hope for those who are long & wrong.

    Once (if) the decaying beast trades above $14.50, then that would be the time to start getting bullish on the little rascal..

    Until that time, it's just another trade gone wrong in my humble opinion.

    I'm long at 5.92...looking to add if the mkt goes higher early this week.

    ReplyDelete
  16. These targets are simply measurements from the large scale Cycle Point Z.

    ReplyDelete
  17. SC...these are your own words is it not?

    Sunday, November 20, 2011
    SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues

    Wednesday, November 30, 2011
    $SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now

    Monday, December 5, 2011
    SPY - Top is IN!

    Wednesday, December 7, 2011
    $SPX - Triple Top

    Sunday, December 11, 2011
    $SPX - DAX Leading Down

    Monday, December 19, 2011
    SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan

    Tuesday, December 20, 2011
    $SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th

    Tuesday, December 27, 2011
    $INDU - Major Decline Next

    Thursday, December 29, 2011
    $SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Thursday, January 19, 2012
    $SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

    Saturday, January 21, 2012
    VIX - Bottomed

    Monday, January 23, 2012
    $SPX - Correction Due

    Saturday, February 4, 2012
    $SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012
    $SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull

    Wednesday, February 29, 2012
    $SPX - Ready to Decline

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period.

      Delete
  18. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  19. Solar eclipse was May 10th, and lunar eclipse full moon is May 25th.

    "Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

    ". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

    ReplyDelete
  20. SC, Have you ever used CVOL as a volitility ETF? I wasn't aware of that one until recently and have been trying to get more information on it.

    ReplyDelete
  21. No, I'm not familiar with it.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SPX trading at the red line 1640. Has not overshot it yet though.

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  23. SPX does have a small overshoot now. I'd like to see VIX lower but VIX is up lol.

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  24. YES...interesting isn't it, bought some more UVXY.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I'm still thinking the VIX can come down with some time, but the fact it is holding so well is quite telling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC How can the VIX spike some and UVXY hardly moved?
      Is there a lag? Does that action concern you that it may not follow the VIX like you think it can? (the other Phil) Thanks

      Delete
    2. Generally, both VIX and UVXY move directionally together. However, UVXY is pegged to the VIX futures not the VIX itself. So they are different.

      Delete
    3. The best example is to look at TVIX in 2011. The VIX peaked in August 2011 and put in a lower high in October 2011. TVIX continued to rise from August to October 2011. Overall it gained over 700% and doubled from Aug to Oct with VIX actually just putting in a lower high.

      So it works both ways.

      Delete
  26. Not so sure the VIX goes lower to be honest....my guess is its made the low now as we are nearing the end of this 5th wave up.

    Max upside is 1680 IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  27. SC...these are your own words is it not?

    Sunday, November 20, 2011
    SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues

    Wednesday, November 30, 2011
    $SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now

    Monday, December 5, 2011
    SPY - Top is IN!

    Wednesday, December 7, 2011
    $SPX - Triple Top

    Sunday, December 11, 2011
    $SPX - DAX Leading Down

    Monday, December 19, 2011
    SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan

    Tuesday, December 20, 2011
    $SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th

    Tuesday, December 27, 2011
    $INDU - Major Decline Next

    Thursday, December 29, 2011
    $SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Thursday, January 19, 2012
    $SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

    Saturday, January 21, 2012
    VIX - Bottomed

    Monday, January 23, 2012
    $SPX - Correction Due

    Saturday, February 4, 2012
    $SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012
    $SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull

    Wednesday, February 29, 2012
    $SPX - Ready to Decline

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period.

      Delete
  28. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  29. Today, SPX reached that level, and we do have an overshoot of the red line suggested by the Cycle.

    SCMay 6, 2013 at 10:41 AM
    "It'll be helpful to see how the market behaves this week to fine tune that number and timing. 1640+ it seems. If it is similar to the Cycle it may overshoot the upper red line."

    ReplyDelete
  30. Now let's see if SPX can spend enough time over the red line to cool off the VIX a little more.

    ReplyDelete
  31. "There were 3 plunges Nov, Dec, and April/May for a total of 350 SPX points. Bears did very well during that time period."

    So the bulls did not make money by buying every DIPS the last year? LOL!!!ALL time highs and you have been calling for a top since 2011.

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Saturday, February 4, 2012
    $SPX - CRASH #1 of 2012 Underway

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    ReplyDelete
  32. The bulls and the bears made money. 2012 was choppy. I bought all the major dips last year June, Nov, and Dec. Bought them all, and bullish charts were posted at these times.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Sure you did. Be honest with yourself so God will not punish you. LOL!!!

    ReplyDelete
  34. This is 8 and a half weeks now that VIX higher than mid-March!

    ReplyDelete
  35. This is 4 months now & you are down almost 200 points on your shorts, 65% on your uvxy. Buying the dip would have work pretty good this year, huh?

    ReplyDelete
  36. The large Cycle correctly predicted the sharp raly phase to start in November and caught a lot of the SPX rally. Many large cap stocks actually peaked in February or March.

    I'm building up shorts for the next phase of the Cycle. Looking to build up aggressive shorts soon.

    ReplyDelete
  37. It is the low quality stocks such as TSLA and NFLX that have run lately. Typical in the late stages of a rally.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hope you are right soon SC.... I do find the VIX action puzzling...10% higher than March even though SPX up 150 pts! Strange!

    ReplyDelete
  39. It's a huge difference and very serious warning imo.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Serious? Explain?

    I seem to recall SPX drop 150 pt last Nov while VIX hardly budged...maybe the VIX is just plain broken or no longer correlates to SPX moves...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The VIX was a great indicator in Novemeber. VIX didn't spike last Nov because it was forseeing this rally in SPX coming. VIX was correct and predicted rally at that time.

      Since then VIX spiked Dec, Feb, April, and now is holding up surprisingly well since March.

      So now it is the opposite, VIX is giving a serious warning and signalling a decline ahead for SPX.

      Delete
  41. 92% Of Investors Expect A Great Summer (Bank of America)

    A new investor poll from BAML shows that only 8% of investors think we will see another 'sell in May and go away.' "Only 8% of investors believe that we are at risk of seeing markets repeat the pattern of 2012 and 2011 with significant risk-off episodes in the summer following data weakness in the spring." Moreover, most surveyed did not seem worried about a rise in bond yields.

    ReplyDelete
  42. May 14 - 16 timeframe is here and as suggested this is a ttt moment. Www.timethetrade.blogspot.ca

    ReplyDelete
  43. May 14 - 16 timeframe is here and as suggested this is a ttt moment. Www.timethetrade.blogspot.ca

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do not understand this site...there are at least two other alternate charts other than the primary one and the author in March favored alternate 1 but now favoring primary 1?

      So i guess the stock market now crashes until July 29 ...unless its only till May 20 then up to November?

      Delete
  44. EMINI 1 YEAR

    http://imageshack.us/a/img801/5936/eminid.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. so are you saying the target for the top is 1679?

      Delete
  45. Apparently there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that said this may be the last month the Fed ads $85 billion of QE money and will begin to cut back. If that's true this could very well be close to a top.

    ReplyDelete
  46. US DOLLAR


    http://imageshack.us/a/img109/3427/89633081.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  47. SC, how far of overshoot is in Point A? Are we there yet?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good question. We did reach the estimate for Point A yesterday both in time and price. In other words the minimum overshoot has been met.

      Let's see how it plays out this week. I'd still like to see if the VIX can dip. So at this point we cannot say it is finished, but by this model it is near.

      Delete
  48. Market does feel heavy. A 3-4 day dip for SPX could be possible here.

    ReplyDelete
  49. So the VIX may pop soon, then may see that final dip for VIX under 12.

    ReplyDelete
  50. My five favorite CALLS by SC,

    Monday, December 5, 2011
    SPY - Top is IN!

    Saturday, January 7, 2012
    $SPX - Major Top Roadmap!

    Thursday, January 19, 2012
    $SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012
    $SPX - This Rally is Not a New Bull

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    ReplyDelete
  51. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  52. Well,

    Cycles - shmykles! How it turned out, heh?! SnP500 at 1650. Who would have known? When 1600 level was mentioned as next target months ago - you were laughed at.

    Keep it simple.

    10 daily moving average, 20 daily moving average, 50 daily moving average. USE STOPS!

    These gave last buy in december at 140 SnP500, STOP just under 140! Give a little room!

    300pts in the bank.

    There are no sell signals yet. STOP IS MOVED UP TO 160 on the remaining xx% (your #) of the long position initiated last year. Or just take all off the table and go for a nice vacation!

    Keep it simple. There is no need for complicated cycles. They are simply too complicated to use reliably and profitably.

    ReplyDelete
  53. 1680! And we were looking for 980!!!

    Saturday, March 10, 2012
    $SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    ReplyDelete
  54. Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.

    Now that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.

    June 1st, 2012:
    Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":

    "LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."

    UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    "You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.

    P3 is getting ready to start!!!"

    ReplyDelete