Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
eeenf giddy up
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SC, do u see SPX@4100-4200 / VIX@15 before a major downturn?
sc,you saying that VIX looks like it bottomed for the short term and later in the year ---correct---No big moves yet?
sc,You saying that VIX looks like it bottomed for the short term and later in the year---it may go lower (two or three months out)---correct---No big moves yet?
Yes, that is correct I think.
What is interesting today is VIX is up with SPX. When this happens it can signal a down turn often a few days later in SPX.
Lou,giddy up Louie----EEENF---Nice call!
sc,There is no correlation--between and UVXY--That always makes me LaughIf the VIX----can get to 25 or better--the UVXY may move to .50 cents---This makes me Laugh more!
I know right. UVXY moving with SPX rather than VIX. Usually though UVXY bottoms after VIX.
SC, what about vix 140?, You give up 🤣🤣 or you still think it's will happen
Yes it will happen. VIX 170 would be a test of the 1987 crash.
SC are you still in GUSH?
No, took profits on both Thursday.
Was travelling on the day, but they may bounce still. OPEC today was rather abrupt turn.
sc,Yes it will happen. VIX 170 would be a test of the 1987 crash.Sometime this year???Is their a time ---second , third or fourth Qtr?
We are moving towards massive volatility. Everything is becoming more volatile over time and fear building, but that is big picture, over a few years.
In next months anticipating vaccine trade will be largest moneymaker. I am starting to raise cash for this play. That is one reason less interested in other things. It's a matter of priorities.
I am watching TNXP and CVAC
There is a volatility trade coming this year though too. A plan is in place.
What the S&P arrive to?
The VIX filled its gap but when is the S&P 500 going to fill the dozens of gaps on its chart? There are so many of them.There is one from the daily high of 2300.73 on March 23, 2020 and the daily low of 2344.44 on March 24, 2020.There is another one from the daily high of 2538.18 on April 3, 2020 and the daily low of 2574.57 on April 4, 2020.There is another gap between Fri, May 15th and Mon, May 18th of 2020.There is another gap between July 31st and August 3rd 2020.There are so many gaps on the daily chart of the S&P 500 it looks like Swiss cheese.
Warren Buffett says not to bet against America. What I say is volatility is increasing over time.SPX is still rising, yes, but it is becoming more volatile as it does.
An increasingly volatile market is a bad sign over the long run. It's getting disorderly.
Ken,There are big gaps in the SPX, over time they will be filled --the fed is adding 120 billion to support this Market---in the end it will be a problem --but the re-opening trade is taking control at this time!Volatility -will come when reality sets in and old regime --don't care anymore ---watch for the infection rates---that is the key for the next three months
We don't care about reason, we look just on the graph, just technically
technically---SPX 5000 to 6000
Oil making a nice bounce overnight. GUSH and RIG recovering. OPEC is a relic of 1980's.
SVXY $55 is important level.
SC, why it's important level?
Bough more eeenf at. 017
Lady s,Because id it get s to $55-----the next gap in the chart is $61 to $63.5 ---- They will try to fill that gap ---computer algorithms----the market is rigged!
SC....What year do you expect the VIX to see 170?This year , 2022 or 2023?Also are the markets going to put a long term top this year based on your model?Thanks
It will be a messy 4 year term. We should expect an important high this year.
SC, UVXY 63, what the value parallel of S&P
SC,Or it means 9_10 for vix?
sc,The UVXY is having a had time breaking below 5 bucks I know it is not a margin problem--ETFS are not marginable is there a reverse split parameter at 5 bucks please advise?
Typically they reverse split UVXY any time under $10. This time they have waited longer than usual probably because of the strength in volatility over the last year. Surely they will do it soon.
sc,Tom demark--from Cramer last nighr-was looking at a short term top in the 4129 area (13 days---by Friday)---if you are familiar with his work.Any validity for a short term top in this area ???
Thank you! I'll do some review on the short term levels.
SC, we hav lower low today in the vix, don't you think the vix is going to 10?
Doubt it would get that low now, but it could later.
RUT is looking weak, rounding top, Tax rates proposed will zap some bigger multinationals. XBI is down 25% could bust lower to 115 then 99..Rut looks to visit 1900'sleader and divergence
SC are you buying UVXY yet?
Not yet. 2 more weeks.
sc,That is the Million dollar question----He may be waiting for the reverse split---VIX keeps on dropping ---still capitulating---still this run up was steep---he will probably wait for a break of SPX 3900 before a position is taken---to confirm a short term reversal of trend!
SC,What is one of the important items you look at when deciding to buy a stock?I’m interested in learning about your technique, if you are willing to share some.
This is a great stock pickers market. One of the things I always say is keep it simple. The simplest charts are the best. The 50 and 200 moving averages on both daily and weekly time-frames can be interpreted and give a lot of insights. Also watch overbought and oversold. They have uncanny ability to make these levels.Then there are clues. How is it behaving or trending? Is it up or down consecutively days? Timing is important and the moves tend to occur around key dates.
sc,I think you got this blog addicted on UVXY---I dont see a big move down when the fed is adding 120 billion a month to hold it up.That has to stop for this market to move down in 10 to 15% correction.Ride the wave to infinity and beyond!
Hahaha I suppose I did!
UVXY nearly at $4.50 downside target posted February 13th. I think 2 more weeks.
Now we have have UVXY oversold on daily.
DRIP had a good week. The OPEC turn occurred and, of course, it happened right at the holiday which made it even more tricky. That is ok because we can see DRIP still under 50 dma. GUSH looks ok for a couple more weeks.
sc,we need an oversold on the weekly---before you buy some!are you expecting 30 to 40 on UXVY ---like the person on Youtube?
Let's see how UVXY looks in a couple weeks. Nothing major.
sc,I could use a laugh ---how high do you think UVXY can go in the next 90 days?10- 15 -20 bucks ???The Feds add 120 billion a month--it don't make sense?
bro i told u uvxy is a short
guys,I just want to see if SC---has an area for a high on uvxy--after it falls to $4.50---as I said, I just to know if $10 bucks is possible or higher?Alot people on this blog-- follow the blog because of UVXYSimple question?
New chart posted!