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Friday, April 9, 2021

$SPX - 2020 Trendline Reached!

SPX likely hitting resistance soon. SPX may grind up this trendline for two more weeks, but with little upside. Any further gains and SPX will be overbought both on daily and weekly time frames. Watch for a turn April 26th down to May 14th for a three week decline. Weekly

85 comments:

  1. Finally we have something to talk about SPX. Resistance and timing is starting to look interesting.

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  2. Looking to reenter GUSH today.

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    1. SC, please keep us posted on gush, might go with xle or iye end of trading dayπŸ˜€πŸ˜€

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    2. I like it! Pretty soon...

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    3. From time research perspective, crude shall be on a weekly bottom, but the reaction so far has been very modest. Do not like price action. While it may still be a prolonged accumulation-distribution, I just do not like the price action so far. If there is a pop in the end, I am looking to short it.

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    4. Thank you Alex, I generally agree. Oil is Choppy. I think there is more downside later April into middle of May.

      I trade it both sides short term.

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  3. Thanks SC, it has been a long wait to hit that line..

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  4. Nice call on SPX I'll be patiently, ha ha waitingπŸ‘πŸ‘

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  5. Thank you for keep sharing your thoughts! I wonder what do you think about other commodities like gold (JNUG) or Nat. Gas (BOIL)? Thank you

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    1. Several years ago I had said that the problem for Gold is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in favor and stealing the show from Gold. It's still true.

      But I think that is coming to a reversal of fortunes. Silver is cheap because it has not tested the 2011 high whereas Gold has done it already.

      Gold and Silver I suspect can run this Fall season. So it's a little early but conditions are becoming more favorable.

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  6. Oil wanted to show a "bad week". I call this the "good cop bad cop" routine.

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    1. Commonly in the movies there is a good cop and a bad cop. Oil is in range alternating bad and good weeks.

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  7. SC, what target for spx in that drop of 3 weeks of May?

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    1. Let's see how things shape up next week, and we can review.

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  8. sc,

    Are you looking for a small pull back----correction ---or----reversal ????

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    1. We'll see. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, but something to ponder is that all big moves start with small pullbacks...

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    2. I’ve been hearing pullback in May, run up into summer. Correction in October. Major top this year, Spx 4600, ndx 17000, Dow 37000

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  9. Replies
    1. DRIP chart update posted to twitter showing reasoning for this trade.

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    2. What is the target price to sell ?

      Thanks

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  10. Notice Financials showing strength today.

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  11. SC, 4120, upper the line, no one can stop the strong market

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  12. They print the money without stopping

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  13. My first target is around 3300-3400 and after maybe 2800.
    I expect this in summer.

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  14. SC what price level are you seeing the spx topping out and how far will the pull back be?


    Also what are the odds of a complete melt up here to say 4500+

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    1. Look at the 50 day, due for a short term top.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX

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  15. SC, April 26--I've been seeing other analysts calling for a top around that date. What are you seeing that leads you to believe April 26 will mark a top? I understand that if it's proprietary, you might not want to share it, but in general are you looking at cycles, Gann analysis, astro, or some combination of these? Thanks!

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    1. In this case it's an estimated date from the SPX Cycle posted in December and another pattern I am watching.

      With the trendline we can start to watch for a downturn soon.

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  16. Have you checked out - XVZ iPath S&P 500 Dynamic VIX ETN

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    1. I am not familiar with it but interesting

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  17. Sc...

    What's your target for gush to sell at?

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  18. sc,

    The SPX resistance is holding --running slowly- on upper trend line----shouldn't we see a couple small drops before late April--or a blow off top?

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  19. sc,

    The SPX resistance is holding --running slowly- on upper trend line----shouldn't we see a couple small drops before late April--or a blow off top?

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  20. Oil made a nice shelf at $60 and pop. When you think about it Crude is a bargain because while SPX went up 300 Crude went flat. Should see Oil around $65 soon.

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  21. Hey Buck, if you are reading, any feedback from Italy? MIB index looks like starts cracking just a bit.

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  22. OCGN is breaking out of consolidation:
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ToYeOXI2/

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    1. Alex thanks for the chart! Nice levels to watch. I'm watching this stock closely.

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  23. GUSH heating up. Looking much better today lol

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  24. Cramer said Ocugen is a good spec stock.

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  25. RIG performing especially well. Looks to be heading towards $3.80.

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  26. GUSH when it runs it gushes haha. Notice it has almost filled the $71 gap though.

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  27. With vaccine failures Astrazeneca and Johnson & Johnson we are down to two.

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    1. I had my Astra jab yesterday. Most available vaccine in Canada

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    2. You should be ok lol. The reason I mentioned the vaccines is that this is a way that they will create drama.

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    3. Ha ha. My arm hasn't fallen off yet

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  28. Where do you think gush is heading? Lower first or higher next?

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  29. Hello from Buck Italy, update of the political situation. Draghi in Italy and Europe, the serene reported, the Italian government crisis seems to have been organized to bring an important non-political voice to Europe, you have seen Draghi's story / Erdogan not? Europe is quietly speaking on the issue of migrants and ERdogan is keeping millions of them on its territory without them going to Germany, which is why Germany is silent and DRaghi speaks. Draghi has nothing to lose. But this feels like a quiet before the storm. Be safe.

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    1. thank you! It's always good to get an update about Europe from someone who lives there. All the best to you and yours!

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  30. We try to help each other, if there are any news expressed, I will report them to you, one thing is certain that we will start to hear from Lagarde, news on tapering in the second half of 2021. If it removes the QE from Italian bonds, Italy fails or inserts the patrimonial, if the patrimonial is inserted, the right-wing government of Salvini returns, if Salvinim returns Brussels it will bring the Italian Spread back to 500, a dog that bites its own tail. A Europe without Italy, however, will not be a true Europe, so everything can still blow, the light at the end of the tunnel could be a truck.

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    1. Thank you, Roberta, and appreciate if you keep informed on your take of the situation. News come out when the right time comes. This is one of the good things about correct market analysis, when there is a turning point - news are subserviant.

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    2. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lXDjflJO/

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  31. sc,

    UVXY ---went to $4.57------close to your target---VIX is hardly moving down --even with 30 points up on the SPX ---the SPX looks like 4200 to 4300--- No Negatives in sight --clear sailing --calm waters---is the Titanic going to show up in the End of April???

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    1. VIX is looking very close. Yes it can turn and pop in May, and larger spike later in summer.

      If a person could buy VIX directly I would do it, but we can't. The VIX futures are a little different animal. So we still should be nimble with UVXY, but it certainly looks more interesting even though likely still trending down.

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    2. I am watching UVXY closer though now. I probably will get more active with volatility.

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    3. I WILL BE SHORTING SVXY WHEN TIME IS RIGHT

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  32. "Covid infection rate is approaching highest level ever, WHO chief warns"

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  33. As predicted several vaccine failures and now the WHO is saying the situation is dire...

    SCSeptember 23, 2020 at 7:33 AM

    "What will happen next is these vaccines will fail one after another. They will then tell us how dire the pandemic."

    SCSeptember 23, 2020 at 7:45 AM

    "Once the pandemic is dire they will then tell the American people that extreme action needs to be taken. It is then that the announcement will be made..."

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    1. We need to get the word out that covid is treatable with effective protocols that bring the hospitalization and death rates down to levels that are comparable to seasonal flu. https://c19ivermectin.com/

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  34. SC,

    Another Pandemic Shut-down------Correct?

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  35. USA is about to strike a deal with Putin's Russia Sputnik V vaccine!!!

    https://youtu.be/EEvopkbc4FE

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  36. πŸ˜…πŸ€£πŸ˜…πŸ€£πŸ˜…

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  37. India is 60th country to approve Sputnik V

    "India is the 60th country to approve the use of Sputnik V against coronavirus, as per the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF).

    The vaccine has been approved for use in countries with a total population of 3 billion people or about 40 per cent of the global population. India is also the most populated country to register the vaccine."

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  38. "MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he got his second COVID-19 vaccine shot, three weeks after getting the first dose.

    Putin got his first coronavirus shot on March 23, also out of sight of the cameras, and the Kremlin wouldn't reveal which of the three vaccines currently approved for use in Russia the president has taken."

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  39. sc,

    Lets ask the direct question!

    When does Reversal start?

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    1. Expect the market to have some hiccups May, June. July 4th.

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  40. LONDON — "The head of the World Health Organization said Friday that an alarming rise in Covid cases has pushed global infections toward their highest level in the pandemic.

    “Around the world, cases and deaths are continuing to increase at worrying rates,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a briefing focused on Papua New Guinea and the western Pacific"

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