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Monday, August 24, 2020

CCL - Inverse Head and Shoulders

Here we have a nice example of an inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern.

Price bottomed right at the August 7th turn date.  Breakout soon!

60min Chart


233 comments:

  1. Breakout probably tomorrow and look for test of the white line possibly September 8th around $19 as it rises to the $25 target.

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  2. Sc so now your saying we don't top out on the spx in the 3400s and possibly going to 3500s or 3600s ?


    This is very confusing

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    1. There's not much upside for SPX in short term.

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  3. confusing to say the least
    weren't we supposed to top early SEPT with a decline to take UVXY to 135 ?

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    1. Waiting for UVXY entry.

      Right now we don't have any of the criteria. VIX hasn't filled the gap 18 to 20 yet. SVXY hasn't made the higher high from June yet.

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  4. We're approaching a high in SPX. Correctly identified that travel stock would rally into the pandemic high.

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  5. SC I dont understand, in your previous post you said September very positive for markets and now you say not much upside for spx

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    1. Because September is a reopening month, expect it to be positive with reopening events September 8th schools and possibly borders September 21st.

      Yes positive for markets and particularly certain sectors such as travel.

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  6. CCL tried to break the neckline this morning and wasn't quite ready. Came off and found the 50 dma moving average as support.

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  7. SC, you would think VIX would be lower right now. Which leads me to think we go lower from here. VIX 18 and lower with SPX 3500 maybe. Thoughts?

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    1. VIX can move independently of SPX in some cases. I think SPX can see a little higher but it won't be by much

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  8. I'm also confused. The VIX is now around 22 and the S&P 500 around 3440. The VIX needs to fall to 18.21 to close the gap on Feb 21st.

    For the VIX to fall from 22 to 18.21 that would mean the S&P 500 would have to climber a lot higher from 3440. I find that very hard to believe. How high is the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ for that matter going to go. These equity markets are already stretched too high as it is.

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    1. VIX can move without any move in SPX. Still SPX can see higher

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  9. So Sept is positive for the markets with very little upside .Sept 8 will be the top when schools reopen ,vix will be 18 but the rest of the month will be positive.Where did the UVXY 135 get lost or has it been delayed .Mate you cannot make statements like UVXY to 135 then fudge your way out without admitting that you are dead wrong.Either play by the rules or shut this charade down

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    1. I never said 135 for UVXY. That number is for VIX

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    2. September 8th is just for school reopening. Borders may reopen September 21st. There are other dates in later September and into October.

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    3. Have some patience. We are about to embark on largest VIX move in history

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  10. I’ve followed SC for a while and the rules I’ve learn from following him are pretty simple, buy when SC Buys, and sell when SC sells. If he isn’t in a position, then it’s on you if you’re making money or not. Even if you follow his trades, it’s still on you.
    SC is right about 9 out of 10 times.
    There are a couple of bloggers that follow this site that are pretty good, Louis and Gardner, to name a couple.
    That’’s my 2 cents.

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  11. I appreciate this blog and the dialog. From what I’ve seen, SCs analysis is pretty good, he looks at the bigger picture and fine tunes. It’s like a road map, multiple routes to the same destination.

    I currently have uvxy and sqqq. Looking for a pull back this week into the next.

    After the pull back, SPX can go much higher, with VIX going much lower. I believe that is the time SC is looking to buy uvxy.

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  12. SC you still think the vix going to 130

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  13. The Fed is going to make an announcement on Thursday.Some analyst think it's going to create a tidal wave for markets higher.Not sure what they are going to say.Maybe best to wait and see.

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  14. I have a feeling Fed sentiment is priced into the market at this point. This might be a blow off top... Plus you have an unknown with 2 hurricanes hitting tomorrow.

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  15. You may be right.But what if the announcement is for pushing inflation higher or negative interest rates.You never know only the big boys know.

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  16. Yes, let’s see. It could go either way. VIX at 21.5 is still high right now. Realistically, should be 15-16 with all time highs. But these are not normal times I guess.

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  17. Not normal times indeed.This is a Fed induced rally.As long as they are pumping this market it will go higher.For a while at least.

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  18. I tell you one thing. The Fed has no control over volatility.

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  19. We are about to embark on largest VIX move in history

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    1. OH mama.... now you're talking dirty ...

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    2. It'll take quite a while in total. At this time we are waiting on the start of the move.

      The spike itself will be fast as always with VIX.

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    3. I'll post charts on the timing and UVXY

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  20. Hurricane Laura coming for me cruiseships

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  21. Replies
    1. I tried to trade options on CCL twice and got hit both times with the wrong direction, so that personal storm was enough for me.

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    2. It's a weird one to trade. Trades flat then spiky moves out of the blue.

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  22. https://youtu.be/JQ57mCXKx_s

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  23. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  25. Short Nq... 12034 ....

    may have just top ticked the nasdaq.. oh mama

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  26. My average cost in tqqq short is 146

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  27. man what the heck.. this market just refuses to go lower....

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    Replies
    1. "The new rapid test for Covid-19 from Abbott Laboratories could be the development that sparks a turnaround for the travel industry, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday.

      The medical device company announced on Wednesday night that it received an emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration for a new 15-minute test. Abbott’s stock surged on Thursday morning as some Wall Street analysts called the test a “game changer.” 

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  28. RMBS looks very interesting. $13.33 stock, $1.52B market cap and they are in hot areas - Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning, Data Centers & Networking, Network Edge, Autonomous Vehicles and IoT. Many of these segments are identical to Nvidia and Nvidia is interested in making acquisitions. They bought a company called Mellanox a few months ago for $6.9B. Mellanox makes high speed chip interfaces. Check out Rambus.com

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  29. VBIV. Covid stock. They released news yesterday (no reaction). This am it gapped up on huge volume, previous highest volume 50 mil, today 200 mil. Price settled back by mid day. Strangest thing I've seen. Anyone have any insight on something strange like this?

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  30. On another note
    https://www.facebook.com/madmoney/videos/797469250990335/

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  31. At this rate I think we'll be at spx 3700+ by end of september.. if we keep moving at this rate

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  32. Nat gas is on fire (pardon the pun) Expect it to keep going no matter what happens with the market. I has been so beat up over the last few yrs that there will be limited supply

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    1. Noticed that as well. Considered buying UNG. Oil is boring but the gas is performing strong now

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    2. Not sure what ung is?? I play hnu.to in canada

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  33. sc you had said you would post a long term spx chart.... can you please post it ?

    Thank you

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  34. The spx looks long forev5, even if the vix go up.
    The vix stuck at the average in the weekly chart and the day chart

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    Replies
    1. Interesting point that VIX 50 moving averages on both daily and weekly are at sane price.

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  35. Smooth sailing on cruise ships bwaahahahahaaa

    https://youtu.be/1YGfrGKK9Mo

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  36. Sc vix andbuvxy not coming down so strange

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    Replies
    1. Yes, VIX firming up. Right now SPX is rising and VIX is also rising.

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  37. Cruise ships took several spots in top 5 gainers yesterday and Carnival is top #2 gainer on NYSE today

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  38. SC I write only to understand your thoughts: 8 september or 21 september are possible tops date 4 s&p500? Vix & S&p are rising together ..this is signaling a imminent top? is a good idea in your opinion buy put options on S&p500 instead to short index?
    many thanks to share your work..

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    1. It has been according to plan with SPX rising towards September 8th. We should see a high soon but it will not be a major top yet. September 15th is turn date possible low. Then September 21st.

      The S&P won't hit a major turn though until my travel trade is finished. That is when Carnival stock hits $25.

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    2. I think this will take a while yet.

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    3. next year?
      21 september pull back..then new high..

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  39. SentimenTrader @sentimentrader Aug 28
    The S&P 500 set a 52-week high for a week straight.
    Every one of the sessions had a negative McClellan Oscillator.

    This has never happened before, using S&P stock data to 1998 or all NYSE securities back to 1962.

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  40. Best August since 1986! And you all know what happened the following year!

    SCAugust 8, 2020 at 4:44 PM

    "The August surprise is to the upside."

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  41. Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4
    This week (and since June) I was looking for ~3530 and we hit overnight & dipped. This is multi-year resistance and I expect it to break out after a cool-off

    Bears need *direct follow through with 3470 next down. If we just spend today flagging it sets up a breakout to 3570 $SPX

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  42. Tried to exit CCL premkt $17.75. No fill.

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  43. That's okay. There will be more opportunities this week to ring the register. Look to exit this week now that the breakout is obvious to the masses...

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  44. Today is the turn date in my work (for SP500). Next is 3rd of September. +- 1 unit of time

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  45. Exited KODK $8.50. It's up 40% premkt lol

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  46. Telsa 5 billion secondary offering... stock goes up another 3 percent... lmao :)

    This is nuts

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  47. My CCL still a bit sluggish and until travel rallies the stock mania won't end.

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  48. Having said that market has a problem now. August was so good that September doesn't have much room to the upside.

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  49. SC... when will you post your longer term spx chart?

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    Replies
    1. I'll try to post that tonight or tomorrow

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  50. sc,

    If August was so good should I start looking at UVXY

    As you said the top is limited?

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    1. I'm watching. Volatility is rising though it doesn't seem to be that start of the major move.

      Mostly I just play the big swings.

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    2. I'll look at it though. Maybe something we can do in September. UVXY is warming up.

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  51. Replies
    1. And you got him by the tail!! Don't get eaten.

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    2. I would of never expected 3526 uptrend to be broken

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    3. Hey LOUIS when u expecting top

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  52. This is insane.. the market just keeps going higher and higher and higher

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  53. I’ve been adding to sqqq in blocks. I did the same with uvxy and turned a profit. There has to be a pull back very soon. Not the big one yet. Patience is key.

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  54. This market will crash and when it does......it is going to be epic.

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  55. Sc. Can u post the chart of spx. When do u think it will top out. The vxx uvxy climbing. Svxy nit hitting 40

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  56. SPX big picture chart is ready. The market timing and targets. Everything you need to know is there...

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  57. Sc. Uvxy 24 . R u still expexting lower on uvxy .

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  58. sc,

    We are breaking out and UVXY is going higher!

    This should tell us something

    Please advise>

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    1. What do you want to do Tommy hold your Hand uvxy going up with market means people are paying up for insurance just hold it till oct
      Has potential to see 40 50

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  59. Uvxy 24.07. Same story, last time, will be too high to buy?

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  60. LOuis. Does not look like uvxy will go to 10 -15

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  61. I have my doubts it seems like fed is investing though I didnt think we would get above 3526 and for sure didn't think qqq would move like this shorted more tqqq at 175

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    Replies
    1. VIX moving up with SPX - just like Jan 2018 before 10% crash?

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    2. SVXY termination event up next lol? like XIV?

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  62. Thanks. This crazy. Vix uvxy rising. Spy to moon

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  63. Very odd market something wrong here

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    1. Blank check to blackrock... they're buying up short end call options on trumps reelection behalf.. dealers have to hedge buy buying stocks for those options and buy vix to hedge....

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    2. Vix up 20 percent in 4 days
      Qqq crash will be one for the books for sure

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    3. Louis,

      Are you holding UVXY? What price did you get in if you are?

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    4. I trade uvxy its gonna go to 40 50
      At some point it might drop first

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    5. Louis there is big gap in vix at 22. Should be filled first

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  64. The market is too strong, it's amazing, I don't remember something like this

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  65. sc

    I keep reading that an SPX update will be released.

    This will be Helpful

    Please advise?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, most definitely. Big picture update!

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  66. There we go the Carnival perking up into the next turn date!

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  67. Replies
    1. You could just ride it to the $25 of course

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    2. This run for CCL is about halfway now. From $13 to $25.

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  68. Louis u were right. Vxx and uvxy was diverging forbdays

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  69. Made day trade CCL $17.15 out at $17.65.

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  70. One issue we have now is Monday is holiday with markets closed.

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    Replies
    1. This is also coinciding with turn date back to school.

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  71. Alex, good call September 3rd!!

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  72. Sept 4 could kast till 8th this bottom

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  73. So bottom next week. Than up till sept 21 or end of sept

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  74. If we don't close above 3500 we gonna drop

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  75. 3580 they say buy buy buy lol
    Looks like 3420 coming

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  76. Thanks louis . Vix got gap at 22. Big one

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  77. Problem with CCL now is 50 dma is at 15.31. It may be overextended for now.

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  78. So uvxy. 20 to 28. Was a big move. .

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  79. SC when will you post charts for long term spx?

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  80. Just forget it. Do it yourself. One week vxx etc were strong. Big move uvxy 20 to 28. Last time also buy was much higher prices

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  81. Replies
    1. Hope others besides myself and louis got short this last week...VIX rising with SPX was the tell...market makers didn't want people to get short..

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    2. I have spx calls and UVXY, still expecting higher high in oct.

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  82. sc

    sold UVXY at 30.11

    I am out

    don't care what it does now!

    Happy Labor Day Weekend!

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  83. SC - seems we are now en route to VIX 135?

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  84. Sold some blocks of sqqq. Will see what tomorrow brings.

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  85. Replies
    1. "Carnival shares buoyed as Costa Cruises prepares to set sail this weekend"

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  86. CCL held up real well during this drop

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  87. Uvxy popping wd are coming close to bottom in spx maybe 3350

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  88. Louis u are such a good trader. Uvxy 20 to 32. When will u go long in market.

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  89. I got lots of spx calls right before that

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  90. I think nq wants 10700 area before the election.... don't shoot me I could be wrong...

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    Replies
    1. There is a 10800 projection
      But that could be invalidated

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