Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
In the big picture SPX is ramping up and has pushed out above.
However, as SPX pushes higher volatility is also increasing. In March we witnessed the largest point drop in history.
Direct hit for SPX!
With drop last week, SPX is saying September is consolidation month.
Hi SC so what is your view? Where do you see we are heading?
So where are we going long term ?These charts are showing what we all can see already SC...
More charts are coming. These are a start.
In my opinion SPX is likely to form an alternating pattern. August was bullish. September consolidation. October bullish. November consolidation. Once traders see the pattern then the reversal comes.Expect December start bullish then reversal. Selloff December through February coinciding with peak Flu season...
Thanks for the ideas SC, it will never be easy, but this set-up could be amazing.
This market is becoming more and more profitable with time. The golden age of trading.
SC, will gold, silver and oil follow the SPX or do the opposite? Thank you:)
Oil will follow. Oil and oil stocks are out of favour. Exxon has been booted from the DOW. Oil stock in particular could be a very good short.Silver and Gold we'll see about them.
SC... you had mentioned we would see 3050 spx at some point... is that delayed to next year now?or will that occur this year do you think?
That's what I'm thinking. SPX likely to trade higher, but then drop to test the pink line at 3,050.
IMO I think natgas will outpreform until about Jan/Feb. I think gold and silver could make another run even though they did not meet my downside projections
I think y all gunna miss the short of the century same as you missed most of the march short
Bought tqqq at 125
Good call Sami! You love the smell of napalm in the morning!
September 8th turn date!
The dates work especially well for CCL. That's why I exited Friday and put that trade on the backburner to simmer for a while.
Thanks SC...and I have Sept. 11th as forecoming turning point. Let's see if we can form a daily bottom today with next daily top coming.
Very good. Sept 11th.
Thank you Alex. Let's watch these dates.
Shorted uvxy and vxx premarketVxx 31.42 and uvxy25.30
I meant to say 28.30 lol
UVXY looks to head lower into next week.
Looks like it
Covered udow short 78.90
Uvxy vxx about to puke
Sold tqqq 127.40
I've looked at SVXY but I can't justify that one at this time. Maybe in October.
That is because VIX futures curve in contango. The curve peaks in October.
Contango means uvxy down correct
Not necessarily. It means UVXY is constantly rolling over into higher priced futures. Every day it rebalances and so there is decay.It is a disadvantage for UVXY, but if VIX moves enough UVXY could be higher.It makes it difficult for UVXY though.
In October the curve slopes down improving the environment for UVXY with each month.Although it made a nice move last week this is one reason I haven't gotten too excited about UVXY just yet for larger move.
Today we see SPX slightly lower low but notice UVXY lower high from last week.
Musk definitely orchestrated short squeeze on Tesla. It is faltering a bit but Musk's end game may be to get Tesla into S&P which would generate the mother of short squeeze as funds would be forced to buy hundreds of million shares to index.
Covered uvxy short 26.30
Covered vxx short 30
Sc, you said the last month that in November we would see a big drop coinciding with the US elections, what has changed you say now it will be in February?
We do see some action in volatility though it is preliminary. Let's see this month and we will have more indications on the timing of events.
For now just trading. We'll get to the bigger moves.
If it is not in November-December, hurst cycles say the big move will be in summer 2021, I don´t see nothing in February...
Interesting, thank you.
March 2020 4 year cycle low , then November-December 40 week low and July-August 18 month low, this is my logic
wow crude is getting killed....
Have another stock play coming in September. This one a higher octane. Racing fuel hahaha
Bought tqqq 126.10
Thank you Louis.
I think there is going to be a capitulation type of move coming to the spx to the downside... thoughts?
Not now, possibly first week of October
Uvxy is puking right now its gonna vomit
UVXY opened at the weekly 50 ma 28.15 and dropped.
Close below 3340 is going to open a can of worms....for tommorow.... most likely the short term bottom capitulation ..
I have my doubts the market will drop here
Bought tqqq 123.50
For what its worth, the correction in June was approx 8%. A close at 3340 is approx 7%
It does look similar though
Bought more tqqq 122.45
I am having a hard time seeing the market drop here i think spx will bounce into friday
3450 plus maybe 3480
Im sitting on bid tqqq lol hahaha
Now one can see how UVXY will eventually see 10 to 11... I couldn't before...
I have my doubts on 10 maybe 18Hard to figure
There is substantial support at 3330 and extremd support at 3300
The vix is not supporting this dropVxx and uvxy not moving
Yes, and another point to make about UVXY, the UVXY 200 weekly is coming down very steep. This keeps pressure on it.
looks like that 3050 this year mark is back on the table.. who knows maybe even in the next week lol
3050 coincides near 200 DMA, 38.2 Fib
However, in the short term, I think I agree with Louis. There is no real reason for this selloff other than the market is extremely overbought.
Sold tqqq 129
Bought back 126.90 and 126
Tqqq is a clear animal
Good call. My avg 124, sold 131.52
Im glad you did well brother
lou,Just for the fun of it bought a little UVXY at 22.57
You still own tqqq
Louis I think sept 11th is turn date. Where will u buy uvxy
few points only
SPX traded around my blue line all day yesterday. It held as support. We see the result today.
Good enoughSCSeptember 3, 2020 at 10:26 AM"SPX support 3,350"
Does SPX go to new highs from here or do you see a lower high? Thx
SPX consistent with a consolidation period that has begun. Expect to last though September. I'm not sure if we would see a higher high in September but in October yes much higher high.
How much?, 3800?
3600 and change
I am thinking mid 3700 minimum, with the possibility of much much more
By when oct
Bought tqqq 132
Sold tqqq 135.10
think at 10:15 pst today... a Sell algo will hit...lets see
Thats good for me I will trade it
Anybidy trading anything else
You're welcome boys.....
Good call Sami
Looks like tqqq could hit 140
Bought tqqq at 133.30
Boght more tqqq 132.50
Bought more 130.50
Vix is not confirming this move
Bought more 127.50
so is this on sale or what!
Bought more 125.50
Louis if tomorrow is turn date may be low
It might be a low
We could hit 3312 but i thinkvwe rally into sept 30
@louis LombardiSold out of Uvxy around $23, bought Tqqq @123. Going to scale into it.VIX is definitely not confirming this move... should be much higher with how the market dropped today
I think that was spx bottom
Bulls and bears brawling right now at 3350
Louprobably a good move I will wait to tomorrowthis was so wrong with UVXYI think if the market goes up tomorrowso will the VIX
Wrong... if market goes up tommorow vix will get decimated...
I think tommy has a typo lol
Specifically uvxy....October vix futures is very elevated...Almost a 5 point premium to septembers
Whats that mean
Also post what your looking at
Yes Sami it is very steep slope on VIX futures
sc,what happening with KodakIs it a but again????
Yes, I've been trading it. I had a sizable position yesterday average $6.20. Popped aftermkt and I sold it all for prices between $7.05 and $7.27.
I've been trading lower highs and lower lows on it. What I do is buy a quarter or half position and add to average down. However, it is starting to look better. So I think it may start grinding higher.
I bought some back premkt for $6.36. Will look to add. Maybe see $7's next week.
Have some other strategies and thoughts on this one. Don't short this KODK stock haha.
Covered vxx and uvxy shorts lol
Bought more tqqq 122.66
I think market will break over 3600
New chart posted!