Pages

Monday, September 7, 2020

$SPX - Big Picture Update

In the big picture SPX is ramping up and has pushed out above.

However, as SPX pushes higher volatility is also increasing.  In March we witnessed the largest point drop in history. 

Quarterly













Direct hit for SPX!

Daily











129 comments:

  1. With drop last week, SPX is saying September is consolidation month.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi SC so what is your view? Where do you see we are heading?

    ReplyDelete
  3. So where are we going long term ?
    These charts are showing what we all can see already SC...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More charts are coming. These are a start.

      Delete
  4. In my opinion SPX is likely to form an alternating pattern. August was bullish. September consolidation. October bullish. November consolidation.

    Once traders see the pattern then the reversal comes.

    Expect December start bullish then reversal. Selloff December through February coinciding with peak Flu season...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks for the ideas SC, it will never be easy, but this set-up could be amazing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This market is becoming more and more profitable with time.

      The golden age of trading.

      Delete
  6. SC, will gold, silver and oil follow the SPX or do the opposite? Thank you:)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oil will follow. Oil and oil stocks are out of favour. Exxon has been booted from the DOW. Oil stock in particular could be a very good short.

      Silver and Gold we'll see about them.

      Delete
  7. SC... you had mentioned we would see 3050 spx at some point... is that delayed to next year now?

    or will that occur this year do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's what I'm thinking. SPX likely to trade higher, but then drop to test the pink line at 3,050.

      Delete
  8. IMO I think natgas will outpreform until about Jan/Feb. I think gold and silver could make another run even though they did not meet my downside projections

    ReplyDelete
  9. I think y all gunna miss the short of the century same as you missed most of the march short

    ReplyDelete
  10. Good call Sami! You love the smell of napalm in the morning!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Replies
    1. The dates work especially well for CCL. That's why I exited Friday and put that trade on the backburner to simmer for a while.

      Delete
    2. Thanks SC...and I have Sept. 11th as forecoming turning point. Let's see if we can form a daily bottom today with next daily top coming.

      Delete
    3. Thank you Alex. Let's watch these dates.

      Delete
  12. Shorted uvxy and vxx premarket
    Vxx 31.42 and uvxy25.30

    ReplyDelete
  13. UVXY looks to head lower into next week.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I've looked at SVXY but I can't justify that one at this time. Maybe in October.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is because VIX futures curve in contango. The curve peaks in October.

      Delete
    2. Contango means uvxy down correct

      Delete
    3. Not necessarily. It means UVXY is constantly rolling over into higher priced futures. Every day it rebalances and so there is decay.

      It is a disadvantage for UVXY, but if VIX moves enough UVXY could be higher.

      It makes it difficult for UVXY though.

      Delete
    4. In October the curve slopes down improving the environment for UVXY with each month.

      Although it made a nice move last week this is one reason I haven't gotten too excited about UVXY just yet for larger move.

      Delete
    5. Today we see SPX slightly lower low but notice UVXY lower high from last week.

      Delete
  15. Musk definitely orchestrated short squeeze on Tesla. It is faltering a bit but Musk's end game may be to get Tesla into S&P which would generate the mother of short squeeze as funds would be forced to buy hundreds of million shares to index.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Sc, you said the last month that in November we would see a big drop coinciding with the US elections, what has changed you say now it will be in February?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We do see some action in volatility though it is preliminary. Let's see this month and we will have more indications on the timing of events.

      Delete
    2. For now just trading. We'll get to the bigger moves.

      Delete
    3. If it is not in November-December, hurst cycles say the big move will be in summer 2021, I don´t see nothing in February...

      Delete
    4. Interesting, thank you.

      Delete
    5. March 2020 4 year cycle low , then November-December 40 week low and July-August 18 month low, this is my logic

      Delete
  17. wow crude is getting killed....

    ReplyDelete
  18. Have another stock play coming in September. This one a higher octane. Racing fuel hahaha

    ReplyDelete
  19. I think there is going to be a capitulation type of move coming to the spx to the downside... thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Uvxy is puking right now its gonna vomit

    ReplyDelete
  21. UVXY opened at the weekly 50 ma 28.15 and dropped.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Close below 3340 is going to open a can of worms....

    for tommorow.... most likely the short term bottom capitulation ..

    ReplyDelete
  23. For what its worth, the correction in June was approx 8%. A close at 3340 is approx 7%

    ReplyDelete
  24. I am having a hard time seeing the market drop here i think spx will bounce into friday

    ReplyDelete
  25. https://bolsayciclos.wordpress.com/

    ReplyDelete
  26. Now one can see how UVXY will eventually see 10 to 11... I couldn't before...

    ReplyDelete
  27. There is substantial support at 3330 and extremd support at 3300

    ReplyDelete
  28. The vix is not supporting this drop
    Vxx and uvxy not moving

    ReplyDelete
  29. Yes, and another point to make about UVXY, the UVXY 200 weekly is coming down very steep. This keeps pressure on it.

    ReplyDelete
  30. looks like that 3050 this year mark is back on the table.. who knows maybe even in the next week lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 3050 coincides near 200 DMA, 38.2 Fib

      Delete
    2. However, in the short term, I think I agree with Louis. There is no real reason for this selloff other than the market is extremely overbought.

      Delete
  31. lou,

    Just for the fun of it bought a little UVXY at 22.57

    ReplyDelete
  32. SPX traded around my blue line all day yesterday. It held as support. We see the result today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good enough

      SCSeptember 3, 2020 at 10:26 AM

      "SPX support 3,350"

      Delete
    2. Does SPX go to new highs from here or do you see a lower high? Thx

      Delete
    3. SPX consistent with a consolidation period that has begun. Expect to last though September. I'm not sure if we would see a higher high in September but in October yes much higher high.

      Delete
    4. I am thinking mid 3700 minimum, with the possibility of much much more

      Delete
  33. think at 10:15 pst today... a Sell algo will hit...

    lets see

    ReplyDelete
  34. We could hit 3312 but i thinkvwe rally into sept 30

    ReplyDelete
  35. @louis Lombardi

    Sold out of Uvxy around $23, bought Tqqq @123. Going to scale into it.

    VIX is definitely not confirming this move... should be much higher with how the market dropped today

    ReplyDelete
  36. Bulls and bears brawling right now at 3350

    ReplyDelete
  37. Lou

    probably a good move

    I will wait to tomorrow

    this was so wrong with UVXY

    I think if the market goes up tomorrow

    so will the VIX




    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wrong... if market goes up tommorow vix will get decimated...

      Delete
  38. Specifically uvxy....

    October vix futures is very elevated...

    Almost a 5 point premium to septembers

    ReplyDelete
  39. sc,


    what happening with Kodak

    Is it a but again????

    ReplyDelete
  40. Replies
    1. Yes, I've been trading it. I had a sizable position yesterday average $6.20. Popped aftermkt and I sold it all for prices between $7.05 and $7.27.

      Delete
    2. I've been trading lower highs and lower lows on it. What I do is buy a quarter or half position and add to average down. However, it is starting to look better. So I think it may start grinding higher.

      Delete
    3. I bought some back premkt for $6.36. Will look to add. Maybe see $7's next week.

      Delete
    4. Have some other strategies and thoughts on this one. Don't short this KODK stock haha.

      Delete