IMO I think natgas will outpreform until about Jan/Feb. I think gold and silver could make another run even though they did not meet my downside projections
Musk definitely orchestrated short squeeze on Tesla. It is faltering a bit but Musk's end game may be to get Tesla into S&P which would generate the mother of short squeeze as funds would be forced to buy hundreds of million shares to index.
Sc, you said the last month that in November we would see a big drop coinciding with the US elections, what has changed you say now it will be in February?
SPX consistent with a consolidation period that has begun. Expect to last though September. I'm not sure if we would see a higher high in September but in October yes much higher high.
I've been trading lower highs and lower lows on it. What I do is buy a quarter or half position and add to average down. However, it is starting to look better. So I think it may start grinding higher.
With drop last week, SPX is saying September is consolidation month.
ReplyDeleteHi SC so what is your view? Where do you see we are heading?
ReplyDeleteSo where are we going long term ?
ReplyDeleteThese charts are showing what we all can see already SC...
More charts are coming. These are a start.
DeleteIn my opinion SPX is likely to form an alternating pattern. August was bullish. September consolidation. October bullish. November consolidation.
ReplyDeleteOnce traders see the pattern then the reversal comes.
Expect December start bullish then reversal. Selloff December through February coinciding with peak Flu season...
Thanks for the ideas SC, it will never be easy, but this set-up could be amazing.
ReplyDeleteThis market is becoming more and more profitable with time.
DeleteThe golden age of trading.
SC, will gold, silver and oil follow the SPX or do the opposite? Thank you:)
ReplyDeleteOil will follow. Oil and oil stocks are out of favour. Exxon has been booted from the DOW. Oil stock in particular could be a very good short.
DeleteSilver and Gold we'll see about them.
SC... you had mentioned we would see 3050 spx at some point... is that delayed to next year now?
ReplyDeleteor will that occur this year do you think?
That's what I'm thinking. SPX likely to trade higher, but then drop to test the pink line at 3,050.
DeleteIMO I think natgas will outpreform until about Jan/Feb. I think gold and silver could make another run even though they did not meet my downside projections
ReplyDeleteI think y all gunna miss the short of the century same as you missed most of the march short
ReplyDeleteBought tqqq at 125
DeleteGood call Sami! You love the smell of napalm in the morning!
ReplyDeleteSeptember 8th turn date!
ReplyDeleteThe dates work especially well for CCL. That's why I exited Friday and put that trade on the backburner to simmer for a while.
DeleteThanks SC...and I have Sept. 11th as forecoming turning point. Let's see if we can form a daily bottom today with next daily top coming.
DeleteVery good. Sept 11th.
DeleteThank you Alex. Let's watch these dates.
DeleteShorted uvxy and vxx premarket
ReplyDeleteVxx 31.42 and uvxy25.30
I meant to say 28.30 lol
DeleteUVXY looks to head lower into next week.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it
DeleteCovered udow short 78.90
ReplyDeleteUvxy vxx about to puke
ReplyDeleteSold tqqq 127.40
ReplyDeleteI've looked at SVXY but I can't justify that one at this time. Maybe in October.
ReplyDeleteThat is because VIX futures curve in contango. The curve peaks in October.
DeleteContango means uvxy down correct
DeleteNot necessarily. It means UVXY is constantly rolling over into higher priced futures. Every day it rebalances and so there is decay.
DeleteIt is a disadvantage for UVXY, but if VIX moves enough UVXY could be higher.
It makes it difficult for UVXY though.
In October the curve slopes down improving the environment for UVXY with each month.
DeleteAlthough it made a nice move last week this is one reason I haven't gotten too excited about UVXY just yet for larger move.
Today we see SPX slightly lower low but notice UVXY lower high from last week.
DeleteMusk definitely orchestrated short squeeze on Tesla. It is faltering a bit but Musk's end game may be to get Tesla into S&P which would generate the mother of short squeeze as funds would be forced to buy hundreds of million shares to index.
ReplyDeleteCovered uvxy short 26.30
ReplyDeleteCovered vxx short 30
ReplyDeleteSc, you said the last month that in November we would see a big drop coinciding with the US elections, what has changed you say now it will be in February?
ReplyDeleteWe do see some action in volatility though it is preliminary. Let's see this month and we will have more indications on the timing of events.
DeleteFor now just trading. We'll get to the bigger moves.
DeleteIf it is not in November-December, hurst cycles say the big move will be in summer 2021, I don´t see nothing in February...
DeleteInteresting, thank you.
DeleteMarch 2020 4 year cycle low , then November-December 40 week low and July-August 18 month low, this is my logic
Deletewow crude is getting killed....
ReplyDeleteHave another stock play coming in September. This one a higher octane. Racing fuel hahaha
ReplyDeleteLets go!!!!
DeleteBought tqqq 126.10
ReplyDeleteThank you Louis.
DeleteI think there is going to be a capitulation type of move coming to the spx to the downside... thoughts?
ReplyDeleteNot now, possibly first week of October
DeleteUvxy is puking right now its gonna vomit
ReplyDeleteUVXY opened at the weekly 50 ma 28.15 and dropped.
ReplyDeleteClose below 3340 is going to open a can of worms....
ReplyDeletefor tommorow.... most likely the short term bottom capitulation ..
I have my doubts the market will drop here
DeleteBought tqqq 123.50
ReplyDeleteFor what its worth, the correction in June was approx 8%. A close at 3340 is approx 7%
ReplyDeleteirrelevant...
DeleteIt does look similar though
DeleteBought more tqqq 122.45
ReplyDeleteI am having a hard time seeing the market drop here i think spx will bounce into friday
ReplyDelete3450 plus maybe 3480
ReplyDeleteIm sitting on bid tqqq lol hahaha
ReplyDeleteNow one can see how UVXY will eventually see 10 to 11... I couldn't before...
ReplyDeleteI have my doubts on 10 maybe 18
DeleteHard to figure
There is substantial support at 3330 and extremd support at 3300
ReplyDeleteThe vix is not supporting this drop
ReplyDeleteVxx and uvxy not moving
Yes, and another point to make about UVXY, the UVXY 200 weekly is coming down very steep. This keeps pressure on it.
ReplyDeletelooks like that 3050 this year mark is back on the table.. who knows maybe even in the next week lol
ReplyDelete3050 coincides near 200 DMA, 38.2 Fib
DeleteHowever, in the short term, I think I agree with Louis. There is no real reason for this selloff other than the market is extremely overbought.
DeleteSold tqqq 129
ReplyDeleteBought back 126.90 and 126
ReplyDeleteSold 129.10
ReplyDeleteTqqq is a clear animal
ReplyDeleteGood call. My avg 124, sold 131.52
DeleteIm glad you did well brother
Deletelou,
ReplyDeleteJust for the fun of it bought a little UVXY at 22.57
You still own tqqq
DeleteLouis I think sept 11th is turn date. Where will u buy uvxy
Deletefew points only
ReplyDeleteSPX traded around my blue line all day yesterday. It held as support. We see the result today.
ReplyDeleteGood enough
DeleteSCSeptember 3, 2020 at 10:26 AM
"SPX support 3,350"
Does SPX go to new highs from here or do you see a lower high? Thx
DeleteSPX consistent with a consolidation period that has begun. Expect to last though September. I'm not sure if we would see a higher high in September but in October yes much higher high.
DeleteHow much?, 3800?
Delete3600 and change
DeleteI am thinking mid 3700 minimum, with the possibility of much much more
DeleteBy when oct
DeleteBought tqqq 132
ReplyDeleteSold tqqq 135.10
ReplyDeletethink at 10:15 pst today... a Sell algo will hit...
ReplyDeletelets see
Thats good for me I will trade it
DeleteAnybidy trading anything else
DeleteYou're welcome boys.....
DeleteGood call Sami
DeleteWow- excellent.
DeleteLooks like tqqq could hit 140
ReplyDeleteBought tqqq at 133.30
ReplyDeleteBoght more tqqq 132.50
ReplyDeleteBought more 130.50
ReplyDeleteVix is not confirming this move
ReplyDeleteBought more 127.50
ReplyDeleteso is this on sale or what!
ReplyDeleteBought more 125.50
ReplyDeleteLouis if tomorrow is turn date may be low
DeleteYes
DeleteIt might be a low
ReplyDeleteWe could hit 3312 but i thinkvwe rally into sept 30
ReplyDelete@louis Lombardi
ReplyDeleteSold out of Uvxy around $23, bought Tqqq @123. Going to scale into it.
VIX is definitely not confirming this move... should be much higher with how the market dropped today
Shorted vxx
ReplyDeleteI think that was spx bottom
ReplyDeleteBulls and bears brawling right now at 3350
ReplyDeleteLou
ReplyDeleteprobably a good move
I will wait to tomorrow
this was so wrong with UVXY
I think if the market goes up tomorrow
so will the VIX
Wrong... if market goes up tommorow vix will get decimated...
DeleteI think tommy has a typo lol
DeleteSpecifically uvxy....
ReplyDeleteOctober vix futures is very elevated...
Almost a 5 point premium to septembers
Whats that mean
DeleteAlso post what your looking at
DeleteYes Sami it is very steep slope on VIX futures
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletewhat happening with Kodak
Is it a but again????
buy again????
ReplyDeleteYes, I've been trading it. I had a sizable position yesterday average $6.20. Popped aftermkt and I sold it all for prices between $7.05 and $7.27.
DeleteI've been trading lower highs and lower lows on it. What I do is buy a quarter or half position and add to average down. However, it is starting to look better. So I think it may start grinding higher.
DeleteI bought some back premkt for $6.36. Will look to add. Maybe see $7's next week.
DeleteHave some other strategies and thoughts on this one. Don't short this KODK stock haha.
DeleteCovered vxx and uvxy shorts lol
ReplyDeleteBought more tqqq 122.66
ReplyDeleteI think market will break over 3600
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete