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Wednesday, August 5, 2020

CCL - Carnival Stock it Floats

Cruiseships are one of the last remaining reopening trades.  The trade is set to benefit greatly as schools get ready to reopen into September.

It looks excellent for a turn now with a reversal on the weekly bar.

Daily Chart

69 comments:

  1. CCL low is likely in place now and we have a strong reversal.

    We have a good sense of timing with the next high due in late September or Early October.

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  2. So u expecting high in spx at that time

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  3. SPX continues to grind up steadily towards the blue line. I haven't been interested shorting SPX or volatility.

    Let the reopening finish.

    The bears will have better luck once the schools reopen.

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    Replies
    1. SC... do you see us going below 3000 spx at any point this year?

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    3. Sc You make it sound like we can't have a 100 point drop on SPX that could clearly happen

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    4. Sure, SPX will have a bad day here and there

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    5. Sami, fresh high SPX 3400'S

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    6. So no going below 3000 spx this year?

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    7. Sami, let's give this time to finish the rally. This can typically burn a lot of time. Then we can talk about the downside target and timing.

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  4. Then the other trade I'm doing is China "Whack a Mole".

    When it rallies I whack it down again lol

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  5. Julia CordovaSparkles @CordovaTrades 16m
    I bought a lil UVXY today.

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  6. Here is some timing to watch:

    "U.S. and China set to review phase one trade deal in mid-August"

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    Replies
    1. SC - previously you mentioned an August surprise - will this potentially be a cause for an SPX selloff?

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    2. We'll have to wait and see on this because they haven't set the date yet. I'm sure we'll hear more soon...

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  7. SC, is the 17th still a turn date?

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    Replies
    1. Next turn date August 7th

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    2. Got that, so the next turn is not until Sep 21st?

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    3. September 15th and the 21st more interesting dates in October.

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    4. Ok, thanks, I have been thinking over 3700 in Oct as a top.

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    5. yea 4700 then 6700 lol you guys are to funny

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    6. No, 3700 then 1000, THEN 6700

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  8. Robinhood has been holding on for dear life.

    https://robintrack.net/symbol/CCL

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  9. 100 point spx drop is coming shortterm

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    Replies
    1. I think you are correct Louis, I plan on getting a little down side action tomorrow, before the turn date, if it is still holding up.

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  10. Replies
    1. only if you want to play swings now, gold is going to 2689.....3500 in 2 years....I have been mentioning it here since 1150..

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    2. Russia and China have now traded in dollars under 50%, the lowest ever, 4 years ago it was 90% of all interbanking, trade, money exchange etc. They are following thru on their desire to end the dollar hegemoney....plus it will be easier for them to launder without the eyes of regulators behind the dollar

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  11. Bought more uvxy at close. Will see how the next couple of days shape up. Will add more if goes down. I expect a retrace soon.

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  12. US Cruise operators (including Carnival)have agreed to postpone resumption of cruises until October 31st.

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    Replies
    1. Very nice thank you! Timing confluence with the Election. Hmmmmm

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  13. Everything is starting to go up parabolic....

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  14. Julia CordovaSparkles @CordovaTrades 6m
    about to go nuclear short. nice knowing everyone.

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  15. SC, what are your thoughts on UVXY with the turn date tomorrow?

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  16. Shorting SPX 3350 - let's see if it pulls back now like SC's chart from June!

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    Replies
    1. It is getting close to the blue SPX. It may overthrow a little just like it undercut in March.

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  17. Bookings coming in guys!!!

    "And yet, people are still booking cruises, something that Norwegian Cruise Line CEO Frank Del Rio is both surprised and encouraged by.

    “If you had told me that we were going to be facing these set of circumstances, and your question is, ‘Frank, would you be taking any bookings?’ I would have laughed at you. I’ll say, ‘Of course, not, who would book? It’s crazy,'” Del Rio said in response to a question on the company’s second quarter earnings call on Thursday. “But people are booking. People are confident that we’re going to come back."

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  18. I hate cruises never been on them never will So in a probly go to 50 when everything goes back to normal just right after the election

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    Replies
    1. I'm not a cruiser either lol

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    2. CCL just fits really well with a model I use

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  19. Im looking for 115 or lower on tqqq

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  20. China whacked today!

    SCAugust 5, 2020 at 8:17 AM
    "Then the other trade I'm doing is China "Whack a Mole".

    When it rallies I whack it down again lol"

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  22. If you want a short, check out FSLY. It had a huge run recently, but they announced that most of their business comes from TikTok and Trump said he was going to ban TikTok. However, you shouldn't hold the position overnight, as MSFT has expressed interest in buying TikTok.

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  23. I'll throw a bone to the bears.

    My suggestion is to wait until after school. SPX will drop just as fast as it did in March.

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  24. After schools open in September I plan to short heavily frontrunning the November US Election.

    The crater will look like Beirut.

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  25. Will post volatility chart. It does spectacular big picture.

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  26. SC, do you still see a surprise big drop in SPX in August? or just a grind up into a major September High now?

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