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Saturday, August 8, 2020

SVXY - Flag Formation Reaching Maturity

SVXY has formed a flag.  The pattern is nearing maturity.

Once the pattern completes this Fall, it is extremely bearish for SVXY.  All markets are increasingly volatile.  

Volatility has entered into mega bull market.

Daily













Mega Bull Volatility

Monthly

129 comments:

  1. Volatility is increasing in all markets whether it be SPX, Oil, Gold or Silver, or Bitcoin.

    Even more troubling is that all these markets are highly correlated meaning that all markets rise and fall together.

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  2. I have never seen a chart as bearish as SVXY. Incredible how little this has moved off it's lows.

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  3. So we go straight down from where we are on the uvxy ?

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    Replies
    1. Not sure, but once SVXY reaches higher high, UVXY will be in position for a larger move.

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  4. So you will go short when svxy rea he's 40

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  5. Next target for svxy is 30 - https://ibb.co/vmSxB1y

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    Replies
    1. Thank you, let's see reaction at the mid line.

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  6. Replies
    1. VIX has established a pattern of higher spikes for 30 years since 1990. 2008 high was tested this year.

      VIX wants to test the 1987 peak...

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  7. SC, what's the low target for S&P and when? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'll post SPX chart next. There is well defined target I was looking at yesterday.

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  8. Friday the 13th of March was the appetizer for VIX.

    Bat soup and salad.

    The main course being prepared and served....

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  9. Thanks sc. Might take spx to 3400 or higher than

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  10. sc,

    where do you see a bottom on the UVXY--in the short term???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. tommy we will see a spike you get out on spike svxy should see 30
      So uvxy should pop

      Delete
  11. Replies
    1. We hit August 7th turn date. Government announces free money over the weekend. August 7th has coincidenced with a low for CCL.

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    2. Even a dead clock right twice a day

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  12. My paid subscription says spx going to over 4000 not trading advice just saying.be cautious with the bears.

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  13. sc

    I have more than one paid subscriptions--most of them are saying that the Nasdaq has a topping formation--it is right in the middle of the projection.

    The next projection on the nasdaq is lower

    the spx and the rut may have higher projections

    we have to wait and see---sector rotation is key

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes Nasdaq was really strong out of the gates since March but since mid July it has struggled.

      SPX and small caps are stronger.

      Delete
  14. Top gainers list today resorts, cruiseships, airlines.

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    Replies
    1. It's all about leverage. Sure we could have just bought SPX but the leveraged stocks benefit the most.

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    2. My favorite is Carnival CCL simply because it fits a model I use.

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  15. Back to school will come quickly and people will feel a sense of normalcy.

    Not to mention the fact they are getting free money which of course they will spend foolishly.

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  16. sc,

    That is true--ccl could hit 18

    I dont see uvxy going back to 10 without a pull back in this market

    It may go to 25 or 26 to reload the Nasdaq

    any thoughts on this idea?

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    Replies
    1. There are a couple things. US China trade meeting August 15th.

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  17. listen to David Hunter on Palisade radio

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  18. 4000---is parabolic

    I am trying to find out if there is a pull back in the short term

    That is my question???

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  19. David Hunter feels ww are going parabolic

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  20. David Hunter has 4200 to 4500 by the summer, or possibly later, a tall order, but this market is so out of wack, i give it a chance...

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  21. sc,

    most of the Dow stocks are up

    oil-airlines-

    the DOW is running

    we need another company that can move in this environment??

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  22. I lightened up CCL a bit. Also I had some CCL calls which I exited completely today.

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  23. You probally going a little higher but i will reposition

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  24. im thinking 3218 might be a good buy the dip to 3292 to 3218

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  25. Tqqq is just an animal elso udow
    Short and long made money with sq today yhanks to my friend david

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  26. SC, how do you know the move down in November will be bigger than March?

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    Replies
    1. Well first we have important points to address. The charts are coming and it is best to take things one step at a time.

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    2. There are things I have not said yet because I see these events coming from a mile away.

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  27. My predictions after too many beers. nugt 80 is a buy. HZD can run to 4.75. SPX close the gap at 3275

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  28. Replies
    1. tqqq or spx. seems like we are toppping around here...

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    2. Maybe 3494 double top then 3318 to
      3270 For some reason every time to market drops things seem to be better than expected even though that really bad

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  29. Replies
    1. I am expecting a minor pullback in the S and P 500 I'm expecting a pop on August 17th 18

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  30. Replies
    1. We lightened up yesterday anticipating settling back and we got it.

      Delete
  31. SC... can you please show us the long term SPX chart with the target you said you had in mind for later on this year please?

    Thank you

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  32. SC,

    It is very hard to release SPX chart---not being able to predict the politics that control this market.

    It could be 100% right or the direct opposite

    although--It would be nice to see the chart!

    TDunn

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's already predetermined.

      I heard this constantly this year. All the "uncertainty".

      There is no uncertainty at all.

      It is set and unfolds as it should.

      Delete
  33. We could see 100 percent fib on this move

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  34. Replies
    1. It means there's a possibility that we could get the 3460 on the SPX before we drop hard it's not a guarantee though

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  35. 0r close to 100 percebt fib retracement

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  36. Carnival $7.9 billion of cash as of July 31, 2020

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  37. Aha.... September 21st.

    "Canadian and U.S. officials have agreed to keep the border between the two countries closed to non-essential travel for another month. This comes as both countries are still working to stop the spread of COVID-19, and as tensions continue to flare between Canadians and prospective American visitors.

    The current extension of the cross-border agreement expires on August 21, though as the spread of COVID-19 continues in both countries, the restrictions on recreational travel will remain in place until at least Sept. 21"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What does this mean? are we in Canada going to get invaded?

      haha

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    2. US Canada border reopen September 21st.

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  38. It means the back to school thing will fail by Oct 15 and we will be in lockdown again. Coincides with elections. I can see the SC mega vix playing out. Until then, everything is rosy

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    Replies
    1. I saw an article about previous major crashes. Many crashed again in 6 or 7 months later.

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    2. Thanks Dennis! Interesting

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  39. Sc how high do you see the spx going before it tops out ?

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    Replies
    1. The SPX chart will be posted soon with target levels

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  40. In July I told you that someone prominent was about to die of Covid before September.

    I had suspected Bolsonaro, Brazil's President, but it turned out to be Robert Trump, Donald Trump's brother.

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    Replies
    1. "Robert Trump, the president's brother, dead at 71"

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    2. There not saying he died from covid

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  41. sc-

    That is true----they are not saying:

    What he died from???




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  42. Nasdaq coming out with a volatility index in the near future.

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  43. Replies
    1. Even though cruise lines aren’t open I don’t c a pop b/c of hurricane season and news always reporting Covid cases. Just a tough environment for cruise lines or airlines

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    2. Last two weeks strong performance for CCL. Both up. We'll see maybe it's due for a down week to consolidate.

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    3. Good points though and agree generally

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  44. Bought a littke KODK $7.70.

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    Replies
    1. Just for fun. It is approaching moving averages both on daily and weeklies that may provide support plus I have a long term fork support at $7.35.

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  45. Anybody have any thoughts on an oil spike soon?

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  46. I bought HQD 7.02 hoping 7.20 so by tomorrow

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  47. I think gold is interesting here. They say the miners have not gone up enough to compensate for increase in commodity. You can play it through nugt (bull) and dust (bear). So today, Buffet was said to have put a big stake into Barrick. The gold miners (nugt) soared. The price tested $2000 that it previously blew through. We will see if it makes a commitment over 2000. Else, it could test long term support at 1750, which coincides with the 1.5 yr chart low trend line on bullish channel. Im out right now bull/bear

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    Replies
    1. Oh, and a close below 1950 could indicate a downtrend to support

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    2. opex on gold and silver is 8/26, they have to keep it in check or 2300 comes fast.....27 trillion in debt and 30% of all loans in forbearance are all u need to know where metals are heading, 2000 years as a reserve currency is proof in pudding

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  48. Anyone looking at uvxy at 19.50-19.60 for a trade? I’m think we see a pull back on S&P soon.

    ReplyDelete