TVIX is cheap relative to VIX. This is because the futures curve is in extreme backwardation. VIX is high and the VIX futures will continue to rise to reach equilibrium.
Fade this one day bounce for markets!
Daily
SPX will rise tomorrow and fall for 5 or 6 days afterwards. Fade this bounce! You will see a better entry the following week.
Daily
VXO is pushing towards the 1987 trendline. Higher yet!
Yearly
TVIX is cheap!
ReplyDeleteExtreme backwardation VIX futures:
ReplyDeletehttp://vixcentral.com/
Plan to enter TVIX tomorrow. Hold into Tuesday March 10th.
ReplyDeleteyour plan is to buy this in the 100 plus range?
Delete80's
DeleteSC - Any target for SPX next week? Just curious do you think it will stage a larger bounce after that back to 3100-3200?
ReplyDeleteExpect this rally attempt to fail around 3,025 slide down next week to 2,925.
DeleteYes after that SPX will perform better in March.
We can already see the relationship unfolding. Currently VIX down 3%, TVIX up 5%.
ReplyDeleteThe VIX futures curve is in extreme backwardation.
To reach equilibrium again VIX will settle but remain elevated.
DeleteThe VIX futures will press higher giving TVIX huge advantage.
SPX is damaged and can't bounce enough to normalize the VIX futures curve.
DeleteTvix 80 to 130 is that what your thinkin?
DeleteYes, $80's and $130's for TVIX.
DeleteSVXY would have been good to enter on Friday. Quite difficult to catch that falling knife. Better entry next week anyway.
ReplyDeleteSo 2840 low wont be broken in march
ReplyDeleteNot in March.
DeleteCycle is ready for TVIX with ultimate target. Will post it when the time is right.
ReplyDeleteI have been patiently waiting for this moment to use this Cycle for 10 years.
DeleteSo no new high in spx in 2020
ReplyDeleteNope
DeleteSPX has reached the 3,025 target.
ReplyDeleteBought TVIX $97.00.
ReplyDeleteBought VXX $22 March 13th calls. $1.85.
ReplyDeletecovered uvxy short thisd vix is down huge and i thought this would be at 16 but i guess not
ReplyDeleteSold TVIX $105.00
ReplyDeleteare you looking for a re entry price in the 80s
DeleteWas hoping for $80's but TVIX stubbornly strong.
DeleteOkay, I better just tell you guys.
ReplyDeleteIf TVIX hits $135 this week it's target $200 Friday the 13th of March.
why u sell then
DeleteI think we have most of this week to fine tune an entry. There's time.
DeleteHaving said that so far TVIX is holding incredibly strong. The white line rises every day so if TVIX hits it later in the week maybe around $90 best we can get.
SC - that sounds like we will be heading towards SPX 2,750 after this bounce is over...
DeleteIt could very well be the case. 2,650 to 2,700 very important.
DeleteDoes not make sense tvix at 39. And now to buy at 95.
ReplyDeleteI know. I did move in and out of it last week. Caught some of that first leg.
ReplyDeleteTVIX is a beast. It's an animal. In 2011 it ran 700%.
Measured move. I think TVIX runs 600% this time.
6x gives TVIX target $228..
DeleteBut u saying lows of 2850 will not be broken this month
ReplyDeleteTVIX held incredibly strong today.
DeleteI'm thinking now that SPX may not be able to hold the lows...
The other huge warning is that SPX fell harder that the Chinese market.
ReplyDeleteNormally the Chinese market is far more volatile. That's a "tell"...
Goldman Sachs made sure of it.....the big moves are over.....
DeleteSold VXX $22 March 13th calls. $2.45.
ReplyDelete32% gain
DeleteDon't bet against the fed, its not time to start that yet...
ReplyDeletefear is something that can be erased in a .50 rate cut second
The Fed probably will cut rates but when?
DeleteTrump is demanding lower or even negative rates. Wall Street now begging for rate cuts.
So far Powell does not seem to be budging.
Fed cut rates this morning...SC we have hit the 50% retracement near 3125 SPX, should we wait for 3150-3180 to short for the next leg down?
DeleteThis is nowhere like 2008
ReplyDeleteSo now what break lows or not
ReplyDeleteMarket is trying to find it's footing. For sure whipsaws are ahead as it tests and tries to find that balance.
DeleteFor now I'm trading those whipsaws as I see them unfold. Today's trading plan worked precisely.
SC - just curious, you said next selloff would be March 6 to 13th, should we wait till the 6th to go long TVIX? This market is an obvious short...just matter of levels/timing. Thanks for your guidance as always!
DeleteYes next window for selloff March 6th to 13th.
DeleteI definitely plan to get positioned this week TVIX. Friday may be best though Wednesday may be good enough.
SPX may be quiet tomorrow as it digests today's gain. 3,048 is the daily 200. The 50 weekly is 3,030.
DeleteProbably slip to test those.
SPX 200 weekly is 2,637.
ReplyDeleteEvery one bullish now
ReplyDeletebamm just like that
ReplyDeletei will tell ya thou volatility vix down but uvxy and tvix holding up
ReplyDeleteuvxy almost flat
ReplyDelete50% retracement occurred on the SPX within a minute or so, then eroded. check the 7:00a bar. This is either exactly what SC is suggesting, or it is a fake out before the next move up.
ReplyDeleteHow do we confirm either?
I'm shorting UV XY that Piece of krapp
DeleteFake out confirmed
DeleteFake breakout. SPX bounce tomorrow and slide down into next week
Deletetvix up 20
ReplyDeleteShort uvxy 26.05
ReplyDeleteSPX one day rally attempt failed as expected.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow expect SPX to bounce recovering about half today's losses.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow will be another good short entry.
ReplyDeleteThanks SC!
Deletesc are you looking to buy tvix at 95 again or lower
ReplyDeletethere is no guarantee that tvix goes up otherwise we would be holding from 40
ReplyDeleteTomorrow $105 TVIX then spike to $140 this week. Drop to $85.
ReplyDeleteTVIX hit the white trendline on the emergency rate cut then shot up.
ReplyDeleteFriday is looking good for TVIX entry.
ReplyDeleteAre you looking to enter below 105 still
DeleteYes there is still the chance for a good entry TVIX $90's.
DeleteFor $140 target.
DeleteCovered my short pre market23.30
ReplyDeleteBought March 13th $23 VXX puts $1.38.
ReplyDeleteTVIX looks like it can cool today..
ReplyDeleteI shorted again at 25 UV XY you think with the could go down how far down
DeleteLow $90's TVIX this week looks possible.
DeleteI'm thinking 3190 is possible on spx
ReplyDeleteuvxy holding up tvix holding up
ReplyDeleteSold March 13th $23 VXX puts $1.59.
ReplyDeleteUp 15%.
DeleteTVIX is 15 pts higher than what it was when SPX hit this same area around 3130.
ReplyDeleteIs that significant? How come it has not come back to the same price or below?
that means vix is staying strong?
This is because of the VIX futures curve. VIX futures are floating up to meet the VIX itself. That's why there is this rising pressure for TVIX over time.
DeleteSPX cannot bounce enough to fix the inverted curve.
DeleteTVIX dipped to $105 level as identified yesterday.
ReplyDeleteSC - Seems like we should be buying TVIX at 105 for the rally to 140 now? SPX close enough to 3125?
DeleteIt's very close but Friday may present the best entry. March 6th. Looking like it's going according to plan.
DeleteThanks SC - scaling in for the next short...going to be good...hopefully we can see 2800-2900 SPX next week.
DeleteI'm thinking $95 TVIX Friday. Tomorrow it may try for $120.
ReplyDeleteSc how high u expecting for spx
ReplyDeleteCovered my short in uvxy
ReplyDeleteEven as SPX is rising, SVXY continues to look very heavy. It does appear that a lower low is coming for SVXY.
ReplyDeleteEvery day SVXY takes hit from Mike Tyson. It's reeling and on the ropes. Waiting for the KO.
ReplyDeleteShorted uvxy premarket26.30
ReplyDeleteThis appears to be a gap and go for TVIX. It is likely breaking out to $140.
ReplyDeleteShorted more 26.80
ReplyDeleteLoaded TVIX $109.30 and VXX March 13th $25 calls at $1.19.
ReplyDeleteHow do you buy office before the market open
DeleteI meant to say options not office
DeleteAnd when did you buy tvix at 109 yesterday Because I can't do a trade till 7:00 a.m. in the morning did you buy that yesterday
U said friday best day to buy tvi
ReplyDeleteTook positions yesterday before close. Figured the TVIX breakout would occur between Wednesday and Friday. It does look real.
ReplyDeleteStill a sell at 140 SC, or higher next week?
ReplyDeletePullback to $85 after $140.
DeleteSCMarch 2, 2020 at 1:54 PM
ReplyDelete"Yes next window for selloff March 6th to 13th.
I definitely plan to get positioned this week TVIX. Friday may be best though Wednesday may be good enough."
Looks like Wednesday was the day.
DeleteTVIX target $140 and then $85.
ReplyDeleteThx SC
DeleteVIX target around 42? or breaking out from trend?
ReplyDeleteEs daily chart looks like it will explode higher
ReplyDeleteCovered uvxy 25.75
ReplyDeleteWhat would be a good entry point for today?
ReplyDeleteShorted uvxy 26.78
ReplyDeleteShorted uvxy at 27.05
ReplyDeleteShorted more at 28
ReplyDeleteYou might get 140 today
ReplyDeleteLooks like there is no good long entry point today, but SOXL might be a good buy for a pop up in the SP.
ReplyDeletePlan to hold TVIX into Monday. Monday expect big down day for SPX as low is retested.
ReplyDeletegood call!
DeleteSC TVIX is near 140...you sure we are not headed back to 85 first?
DeleteStill rising for TVIX $160.
DeleteIt was a great call however you didn't post of your trade till the next day so nutty of people bought
ReplyDeleteI know, was tricky entry. Expected TVIX pop today but I felt Friday was more likely for the turn.
DeleteIt's okay the next moves are much larger.
louis lombardiMarch 5, 2020 at 10:14 AM
DeleteIt was a great call however you didn't post of your trade till the next day so nutty of people bought
are you using google translate again?
For your enjoyment and pleasure.
ReplyDeleteA new dimension in terror:
https://youtu.be/E6P4iatMl7M
Raise target to $160 TVIX.
ReplyDeleteIt's too strong today but maybe tomorrow can try intraday trade on TVIX.
ReplyDeleteVXX March 13th $25 strike calls are up 130%. Aim for 400%.
ReplyDeleteThe best guys is that the biggest move played out!!! Wait until you see the next chart!
ReplyDelete$140 has been hit! Just on the first day!!!
ReplyDeleteMaybe we go down to zero by the 13th?, ha
ReplyDeleteHAHAHAHA
DeleteNeed some bounce. Options are too expensive at the current VIX
ReplyDeleteTomorrow
DeleteShorted uvxy 29.10
ReplyDeleteInterestingly this year Friday the 13th is coinciding with the Ides of March. March 15th.
ReplyDeleteDow moves 1,000 points a day. Let's see if we can get a Dow 2,000 point down day next week.
ReplyDeleteRaise target again to $180 TVIX!!!
ReplyDeleteBy when ?
DeleteNext week
DeleteFear phase is over it seems we are entering panic?!!
ReplyDeleteSc you dont think there will be a better entry to go long because I'm having a problem buying this crap up here since I owned 10000 shares at 43 and everyone sold it
DeleteI hear you. I know it seems ridiculous. I had to block out the thoughts and just go with the charts.
DeleteYes, agree once TVIX does top out it'll retrace most of the entire move.
Still I expect there will be ample time to exit at the top, and then of course look to the other side.
DeleteBelieve me I am well aware that there is more than meets the eye.
DeleteUp 200% on the Calls
ReplyDeleteVXO volatility still plenty of upside. It's at 45. Target is 65. 50% upside approximately.
ReplyDeleteLouis I feel the same did not keep uvxy at 1 . And buy at 30
ReplyDeleteI understand completely. The thing is that panics are not rational. So this why we have our charts and cycles to use.
DeleteIf you follow loius he posts his trades immediately.
DeleteSold my uvxy options at .77, now worth 16.92
ReplyDeletePost your trades I wanna see it because it was never posted on that on the blog
DeleteTill next day
Bulls and bears make money pigs get slaughtered
ReplyDeleteI shorted as high as 29.80 good luck
ReplyDeleteIf the cycles are so strong. Need to keep what bought at lows.
ReplyDeleteYour totally misleading people by posting your trades after the fact.Not cool. You state Friday may be 90 then it moves on the futures you say maybe 120 tomorrow then post you bought.
ReplyDeleteI am curious why you bought TVIX at 1:09 and did not tell the blog or the options as well because 77 cents would have been really nice for some of the smaller guys
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThankyou Louis,
ReplyDeleteThis makes you Sc look shady
That's why was asking your plan so people can decide. Instead of in but and pieces.
ReplyDeleteThink everyone needs to calm down...SC provided a plan earlier in the week to get short Wed or Fri...Market will bounce back later and we will have another good chance to short.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying that SC doesn't know what
DeleteWhat he is doing him and Joe must be
Friends because joe bought options at 77cents and no one else did So obviously every time Sc Put to trade up he tells the blog Now all of a sudden he left it out I made more money shorting this piece of shit then going long for sure lol I gotta keep sure this piece of krapp until it goes down
Louis, I always trade options on my own. I sold my options at a loss for .77, I just WISH I had held on for higher prices...
DeleteIt's all about credibility.We are all adults responsible for our own trades.Having said that.There are quite a few small traders that follow his every word.This was not credible.
ReplyDeleteThat's why was asking your plan so people can decide. Instead of in but and pieces.
ReplyDeletelouis never loses money. even when he's wrong, he makes money. Even when the market goes against him, he makes money. Louis for President!
ReplyDeletei do lose money thats not true sc was on the money its the dissapoint ment of not posting his trades. 43 to 140 thats 100 points
DeleteLouis is a very good trader and has the funds to scale in and out. SC likely didn't post his trade because he didn't feel 100% confident and didn't want to lead us wrong. His blog and opinions are free and he said it was going down soon. I missed it all too but blame myself as I should not have been so greedy and should have taken the trade even if not "perfect" and held on tight. Good luck to all!
ReplyDeleteNicely said Holly
DeleteI feel if there is a plan for three or 6 months people decide when to sell or buy. Playing the waves nobody is correct. I remember getting stuck in uvxy when buying so high
ReplyDeleteCongrats all that bought
ReplyDeleteI sincerely apologize for that guys!!!
ReplyDeleteThe intention has always been to make money and have a lot of fun!
The price action for SVXY was telling me it was in trouble. I said it was reeling and against the ropes and about to be knocked out by Mike Tyson.
When I took the positions I was thinking about a pop to $120.
Then when I saw it breakout above $120 I told you the breakout was real. I saw the price come backtest the $120.
Even $120 was a very good entry. I tried to explain how cheap TVIX was because of the curve, and the VIX futures had huge spread and needed to surge dramatically!
Anyway don't be hard on yourselves. Panics are extremely difficult to trade. You are only human!
TVIX $178 Pre market. Wow!!
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 5, 2020 at 11:46 AM
"Raise target again to $180 TVIX!!!"
Are you still thinking $180 to $85?
ReplyDeleteNo, it made the most extreme move possible. I'll be out today because I expect it could fall back to $150 to $160.
DeleteThe only other target really I have is $228. I think this is likely to hit next week after a pullback. I calculated $228 from a measured move with 2011. That time it ran 700%.
To be conservative I figured $228, which is a 600% move from $38.
I’m disappointed I missed the big run up in TVIX, I’m also super thankful that I’ve been sitting in cash and I haven’t lost a dime.
ReplyDeleteIf the measured move is slightly more than 2011 then I guess an 800% move $304 TVIX could be possible in theory but...
ReplyDeleteSPX 2,830 target next week.
ReplyDeleteMassive spike in panic overnight.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely entering panic phase.
DeleteSCMarch 5, 2020 at 11:49 AM
"Fear phase is over it seems we are entering panic?!!"
these pricks wont let me short tvix someones gonna be holding the bag
ReplyDeletei will short this pig up till 40 bagholders beware
ReplyDeleteSPX is likely to recover most losses today. I plan to exit and retake positions before the close or Monday morning.
ReplyDeleteTVIX multiplying faster than Corona as panic sets in. Too much panic for today!
ReplyDeletelol the ball sack media causing the problem
Deletecredit suisse the biggest bag holders of all time im on there back like a gorilla lol
Deletei am on direxions back like a rino lol
DeleteYes the panic feeds on itself through social media like wildfire and of course the media is all too enthusiastic to fan the flames.
ReplyDeleteBut u think 2850 will not be broken in marc .
ReplyDelete2,830, that's it.
DeleteMrvl holding up like a beast
ReplyDeletelol i would of turned 430k into 2 million i could off took the whole blog on vacation
ReplyDeleteHow much is rally after 2830
ReplyDelete450 points
DeleteInto mid April?
DeleteYes April 10
DeleteI'm out on the open. These prices look stupid!!!
ReplyDeleteS@P 88 point gap lol
DeleteConsidering all the panic, UVXY did not perform that well.
ReplyDeleteSo. 3250 to 3300 Sox. That's big rally
ReplyDeleteYes
Delete