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Monday, March 16, 2020

$VIX - Peak Panic

VIX may be running out of room to advance in this panic.

This is a volatility event.  VIX is testing near the 2008 high.

SPX is holding quite well compared to 2008.  While fast, this drop for SPX is mild in terms of percentage in a bear market relative to 2008.

The monthly chart shows long term levels of VIX support and resistance.

Monthly Chart

47 comments:

  1. Oh wow... maybe that 82 Vix is for real.

    What about the idea that this issue is not part of the cycle of financial issues? Since it is more of a "random" event not specifically tied to financials?

    Is it possible that charting this under the assumption that it resides within the echoes of previous 'crashes' makes us ignorant of something else?

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    Replies
    1. Post that chart again for VIX 82 if you can please.

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    2. It seems it was predictable.

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    3. https://imgur.com/a/vYLt49v

      SC, I was able to rebuild that VIX 82 line again. See here on teh 5D, 5 min chart.

      82.5ish is from a FIB arc dating back to the 2008 event.

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  2. I first showed this chart years ago. We were due for a high volatility event and we got it.

    Notice there were warnings over the last several years that the dam was about to burst.

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    1. I guess they had a blame it on something or maybe they knew what they were doing when they planted the virus
      I just can't see myself buying any of this Volatility I had 10000 shares at 43 I will continue 2 short spikes until volatility crush the market will come back at some point

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    2. Yes. We may be close to the tipping point for volatility calming down.

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  3. So far, all of this response is speculatory regarding the effects that this slow down due to a virus will have on the economy.

    We have not even seen the actual effects (numbers of infected and deaths) yet in the USA.

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  4. https://imgur.com/a/ymNlkwz

    I believe this was my previous version of VIX estimates, but the graph was not zoomed out to show the 82.

    the turquoise lines are Fib curves relating to 2008. they have been very consistent and accurate. The same method has worked on TVIX.

    See an updated VIX chart below, I have since then rearranged and lost the 82 VIX line. Sorry about that.

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  5. Upro might be good I am hearing commercial realestate Is gonna get crushed any body know what could be shorted?

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  6. https://imgur.com/a/kfywf4G

    updated VIX

    See the same turquoise fib curves from 2008 and the other red ones from a different date. There are red horizontal lines with fib retracements only price based.

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    Replies
    1. looks like VIX is making the 79 a support.

      if it does, here are the next levels based on other models that have shaped up so far:
      87
      94
      97

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  7. https://imgur.com/kl584cn

    For the hell of it... here is the most TVIX chart I had been using with the same methods. That 100% line has been there since the begining of last week.

    It has been held all day today. nuts.

    if everything matches what has gone on with Vix, it looks like TVIX could see 638.... I am not taking that gamble.

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    Replies
    1. Sorry, not 638, but nearly 700.

      and I realize there is too much going on in that graph to make sense of... but the important lines that have held are related.

      as you mentioned, yes, predictable if you have enough faith in your setup. I am still weak in this regard.

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    2. You're nuts. Ha! I wish you the best. It will certainly crash hard when it does.. but it could over a month or 2 from now... correct?

      The more I look at people's estimates, the more I think it might actually get to 1000. I will still be shocked though.

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    3. lol know your risk i also hedge

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  8. SC: is a good entry point a buy at the 2018 low for S&p500 in your opinion? for a cover rebound..
    many thanks..

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    Replies
    1. Yes, technically SPX is retesting the 2018 low. April likely the best entry.

      Charts are coming with the targets.

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  9. un freaking believable...who is going to save us??

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  10. https://imgur.com/a/KGl7jG2

    This chart really upsets me. Can anyone see what has happened here?

    SPX long term weekly

    How has no one mentioned this?

    See the Fib time retracement? AARGH!!!
    There's the event timing... right there.

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  11. What makes u think that this is not the day? Trump latest message was that “we may be heading in to a recession”. Earlier from 2018 we had a nice megaphone pattern which finished very nicely and we hit its target of 3400 on SPX. We made this impressive drop of 30% without any strong retest of other support/resistance levels on its way. And historically this happened in winter as most recessions do

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  12. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zmlw_xVggu0

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    Replies
    1. Well, interesting perspective. Lets see what is going to happen next

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  13. SVXY pop to $30 initially, settle back to $28 and up to $38 target.

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  14. Whats swing target on SVXY SC?

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  15. TVIX it may well see $700 but $300's soon.

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  16. UVXY and TVIX edged higher high this morning. Somehow SVXY has higher low. Rare!

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  17. So how high on spx. Is it be end on march

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  18. For SPX not expecting a huge rally yet. It's going to be choppy while it solidifies. We can see 2,600 initially.

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  19. The chart is coming and the SPX target will be around 3,000.

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    Replies
    1. SC - you expect SPX to selloff and bottom after this in April?

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    2. It may because here is one timing in April that is a concern.

      It's early.

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  20. VIX hit the upper resistance on the chart today. It appears to be rejected.

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  21. Now the other point to make is that the chart also shows VIX support 45.

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  22. SPX 2,700 next week may be possible.

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  23. Detailed charts will be posted. Expect this week and next week positive SPX.

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  24. Replies
    1. UPRO likely a bigger mover initially. SVXY likely to perform better later.

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  25. On the charts I have for VIX and TVIX, the max estiamte line I had for TVIX was around 840.

    I dont what that actually means.. bu it seems we are headed there.

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  26. I think my computer is glitching... tvix spiking above 1000, vix barely making new highs.

    watch tvix get cancelled

    ReplyDelete