This is a volatility event. VIX is testing near the 2008 high.
SPX is holding quite well compared to 2008. While fast, this drop for SPX is mild in terms of percentage in a bear market relative to 2008.
The monthly chart shows long term levels of VIX support and resistance.
Monthly Chart
Oh wow... maybe that 82 Vix is for real.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the idea that this issue is not part of the cycle of financial issues? Since it is more of a "random" event not specifically tied to financials?
Is it possible that charting this under the assumption that it resides within the echoes of previous 'crashes' makes us ignorant of something else?
Post that chart again for VIX 82 if you can please.
DeleteIt seems it was predictable.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/vYLt49v
DeleteSC, I was able to rebuild that VIX 82 line again. See here on teh 5D, 5 min chart.
82.5ish is from a FIB arc dating back to the 2008 event.
I first showed this chart years ago. We were due for a high volatility event and we got it.
ReplyDeleteNotice there were warnings over the last several years that the dam was about to burst.
I guess they had a blame it on something or maybe they knew what they were doing when they planted the virus
DeleteI just can't see myself buying any of this Volatility I had 10000 shares at 43 I will continue 2 short spikes until volatility crush the market will come back at some point
Yes. We may be close to the tipping point for volatility calming down.
DeleteSo far, all of this response is speculatory regarding the effects that this slow down due to a virus will have on the economy.
ReplyDeleteWe have not even seen the actual effects (numbers of infected and deaths) yet in the USA.
https://imgur.com/a/ymNlkwz
ReplyDeleteI believe this was my previous version of VIX estimates, but the graph was not zoomed out to show the 82.
the turquoise lines are Fib curves relating to 2008. they have been very consistent and accurate. The same method has worked on TVIX.
See an updated VIX chart below, I have since then rearranged and lost the 82 VIX line. Sorry about that.
Interesting, thank you!
DeleteUpro might be good I am hearing commercial realestate Is gonna get crushed any body know what could be shorted?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/kfywf4G
ReplyDeleteupdated VIX
See the same turquoise fib curves from 2008 and the other red ones from a different date. There are red horizontal lines with fib retracements only price based.
looks like VIX is making the 79 a support.
Deleteif it does, here are the next levels based on other models that have shaped up so far:
87
94
97
https://imgur.com/kl584cn
ReplyDeleteFor the hell of it... here is the most TVIX chart I had been using with the same methods. That 100% line has been there since the begining of last week.
It has been held all day today. nuts.
if everything matches what has gone on with Vix, it looks like TVIX could see 638.... I am not taking that gamble.
Sorry, not 638, but nearly 700.
Deleteand I realize there is too much going on in that graph to make sense of... but the important lines that have held are related.
as you mentioned, yes, predictable if you have enough faith in your setup. I am still weak in this regard.
I will short this up to 1000
DeleteYou're nuts. Ha! I wish you the best. It will certainly crash hard when it does.. but it could over a month or 2 from now... correct?
DeleteThe more I look at people's estimates, the more I think it might actually get to 1000. I will still be shocked though.
lol know your risk i also hedge
DeleteSC: is a good entry point a buy at the 2018 low for S&p500 in your opinion? for a cover rebound..
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
Yes, technically SPX is retesting the 2018 low. April likely the best entry.
DeleteCharts are coming with the targets.
un freaking believable...who is going to save us??
ReplyDeleteJesus lol
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/KGl7jG2
ReplyDeleteThis chart really upsets me. Can anyone see what has happened here?
SPX long term weekly
How has no one mentioned this?
See the Fib time retracement? AARGH!!!
There's the event timing... right there.
What makes u think that this is not the day? Trump latest message was that “we may be heading in to a recession”. Earlier from 2018 we had a nice megaphone pattern which finished very nicely and we hit its target of 3400 on SPX. We made this impressive drop of 30% without any strong retest of other support/resistance levels on its way. And historically this happened in winter as most recessions do
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zmlw_xVggu0
ReplyDeleteWell, interesting perspective. Lets see what is going to happen next
DeleteBought SVXY $28.50.
ReplyDeleteSVXY pop to $30 initially, settle back to $28 and up to $38 target.
ReplyDeleteWhats swing target on SVXY SC?
ReplyDeleteTVIX it may well see $700 but $300's soon.
ReplyDeleteI think panic is over.
ReplyDeleteUVXY and TVIX edged higher high this morning. Somehow SVXY has higher low. Rare!
ReplyDeleteSo how high on spx. Is it be end on march
ReplyDeleteFor SPX not expecting a huge rally yet. It's going to be choppy while it solidifies. We can see 2,600 initially.
ReplyDeleteThe chart is coming and the SPX target will be around 3,000.
ReplyDeleteSC - you expect SPX to selloff and bottom after this in April?
DeleteIt may because here is one timing in April that is a concern.
DeleteIt's early.
VIX hit the upper resistance on the chart today. It appears to be rejected.
ReplyDeleteNow the other point to make is that the chart also shows VIX support 45.
ReplyDeleteSPX 2,700 next week may be possible.
ReplyDeleteSVXY $32.
ReplyDeleteDetailed charts will be posted. Expect this week and next week positive SPX.
ReplyDeleteupro is a biger mover?
ReplyDeleteUPRO likely a bigger mover initially. SVXY likely to perform better later.
DeleteNew chart Posted!
ReplyDeleteOn the charts I have for VIX and TVIX, the max estiamte line I had for TVIX was around 840.
ReplyDeleteI dont what that actually means.. bu it seems we are headed there.
I think my computer is glitching... tvix spiking above 1000, vix barely making new highs.
ReplyDeletewatch tvix get cancelled