SC: a 32.5 of SVXY for the end of march is in line with a 500 point up of s&p500? or we can see weaker impulse? is there contradiction between the 2 things?
Low was 2,280 SPX. Let's assume 2,700 to 2,750 next high.
I estimated 500 points. By this calculation if the high is 2,700 to 2,750 as shown on the SPX chart that gives 420 to 470 points which is right in the ballpark.
unless the VIX goes low again before another huge and fast leg down, I missed the good trade when I sold UVXY options for .76 then watched them go to 113.0...
Hi here Europe, the German Dax and Italian FTSE MIB are just forming a bottom since last week, in area 8500 and 15300 respectively, we are basically waiting for “your” bottom to enjoy the big bounce with target the 50MA…for everyone. Thanks SC for sharing your precious contributes I am actually following your blog since 2015 but I never posted thoughts. Anyway, I really appreciated the contributes of everyone here, it is always a pleasure to follow your trade/opinions. @Dennis T, Thanks for the radioparadise link… self-isolation here too.
With weak Silver, Gold is hampered. Sure Gold has performed better for last few years. No question it is trying to test its 2011 high, and it will, but it's still weak over the last 10 years.
you have been wrong on gold and silver all year, its now about to go parabolic, no one beleves in the dollar and the paper short is about to implode at comex......spot prices are much higher.....you need to learn about gold before talking about it....
SC: a 32.5 of SVXY for the end of march is in line with a 500 point up of s&p500? or we can see weaker impulse? is there contradiction between the 2 things?
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
SVXY is relatively conservative in the way it is constructed.
DeleteLow was 2,280 SPX. Let's assume 2,700 to 2,750 next high.
DeleteI estimated 500 points. By this calculation if the high is 2,700 to 2,750 as shown on the SPX chart that gives 420 to 470 points which is right in the ballpark.
SPX 200 dma 2,641. Should at least hit that next week possibly overthrow.
ReplyDelete2,700 to 2,750 possible on overthrow.
DeleteOnce SPX hits the upside target, what would be your downside target? Do you expect a lower low? Thx
DeleteThe SPX chart has confirmed and so I'm expecting it to play out with the next high 2,700 to 2,750 SPX next week and a low 2,450 the week of May 4th.
DeleteSC, is there a typo in your post? Those numbers and dates don't look right per your previous posts.
DeleteThanks
I have some other dates in April to watch also.
DeleteBut let's review next week and we will have further confirmation of the timings.
Some dates are major and some are minor.
DeleteThank you
DeletePlan to hold my long positions until late next week.
ReplyDeleteI haven't done anything with Oil yet Best timing to enter the week of May 4th.
ReplyDeleteI must admit having filled up at the pump yesterday. For the first time in decades actually left smiling.
DeleteThe 50 weekly for TVIX is $146. Even an undercut of that is possible at $110.
ReplyDeletemj looks great here
ReplyDeleteUsing log scale TVIX clearly forming high.
ReplyDeleteMarkets are still a little soft which is okay. Unemployment coming out later in the week. So looking like a low this week.
ReplyDeleteWhat a great year for traders!
ReplyDeleteWe should aim the profit bar high this year, extremely high!!
ReplyDeleteSc... are you still holding upro ?
DeleteFrom the 2400s Spx ?
SVXY is holding well and up, but yes UPRO is still down. Plan to increase later in the week.
Deleteunless the VIX goes low again before another huge and fast leg down, I missed the good trade when I sold UVXY options for .76 then watched them go to 113.0...
ReplyDeleteIt was a big move for certain. If we add up the next couple moves can total the same size as this one.
DeleteThx SC, I am looking forward to trading the moves, but potential is limited when the VIX is high.
DeleteIs this a bottom for a while, or just the first leg of a huge down?
ReplyDeleteThere is another negative cycle in April.
DeleteSC: no market rebound.. too late to sell. try to hold positions.. 2100 S&p good support i think. what do you think? many thanks..
ReplyDeleteRebound next week likely. Yes it may slide a little more this week.
DeleteBought more upro at 17.80
ReplyDeleteHi here Europe, the German Dax and Italian FTSE MIB are just forming a bottom since last week, in area 8500 and 15300 respectively, we are basically waiting for “your” bottom to enjoy the big bounce with target the 50MA…for everyone.
ReplyDeleteThanks SC for sharing your precious contributes I am actually following your blog since 2015 but I never posted thoughts. Anyway, I really appreciated the contributes of everyone here, it is always a pleasure to follow your trade/opinions.
@Dennis T, Thanks for the radioparadise link… self-isolation here too.
In Canada, glad you like it. Voluntary self isolation to do my part
DeleteThank you very much my friend! Glad to hear from you!!
DeleteThank you for the perspective from Europe!
DeleteSc target for upro
ReplyDeleteSold SVXY $31.90 aftermarket. Target reached.
ReplyDeleteSc what u expecting this week spx will go lower than 2100
ReplyDeleteSc tvix already 233
ReplyDeleteUvxy tvix people holding th bag
DeleteYes, reviewing. TVIX 50 weekly 146.11.
DeleteTVIX similar to the South Sea Company bubble of 1719.
ReplyDeleteI'm still short these tires
ReplyDeleteSc u think we get up to 30 again ur thoughts I was thinking 2700 spx
ReplyDeleteWe can see that level next week.
DeleteSC, this is interesting, haven't seen this before. 50 dma and 50 wma are around the same level https://imgur.com/a/CruqedG
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/CruqedG
ReplyDeleteSc svxy did not go up. Vix kept on rising
ReplyDeleteBought TVIX $390.
ReplyDeleteFor employment numbers?
DeleteMay see $500 soon.
DeleteTVIX chart played out. SVXY hit resistance and dropped.
DeleteUnemployment is coming. Also they are delaying voting on stimulus bill.
Sc are u expecting 2250
ReplyDeleteSPXU 50 weekly $25.16. Support.
ReplyDeletebounced right off 25.16 good call
DeleteAren't you looking for 50 wma on TVIX ultimately?
ReplyDeleteYes, though it should rise first.
DeleteVIX does not seem to agree with this rally in the least
ReplyDeleteThis is a strong daily chart TVIX, UVXY, and VXX.
ReplyDeleteVXX can see a fresh high soon.
Sc if that's the case how do you expect to see 2700 on Spx then?
ReplyDeleteVolatility is starting to build a base, slowly rising, but SPX still has upside as well.
DeleteRecord Unemployment but it's not a shock to the market because everyone knew about it last week.
ReplyDeleteUS jobs market is going through a rebalancing.
ReplyDeleteDumped spxl upro
ReplyDeleteSpxu breaking down
ReplyDeleteSold UPRO $28.90.
ReplyDeleteSPX chart coming.
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley chief investment officer
ReplyDeleteHands me a laugh he says now is the time to buy stocks Why didn't he tell us to buy 4000 points lower
you want to cancel that call on gold and silver, Gold parabolic move is coming....
ReplyDeleteSilver deep bear market coming on 10 years.
DeleteWith weak Silver, Gold is hampered. Sure Gold has performed better for last few years. No question it is trying to test its 2011 high, and it will, but it's still weak over the last 10 years.
Deflation in commodities.
This will surprise many. In time of greatest crisis, the US dollar is the most liquid, best safe haven.
DeleteUS dollar index rising since 2011 when Gold peaked. The index is heading for the 2001 peak.
Deleteyou have been wrong on gold and silver all year, its now about to go parabolic, no one beleves in the dollar and the paper short is about to implode at comex......spot prices are much higher.....you need to learn about gold before talking about it....
DeleteStay in the USD. Avoid Canadian or Australian dollars especially, those commodities producers and stock markets are the worst, falling precipitously!
ReplyDeleteSC - silver is leading gold...it’s already below the 2016 lows...means gold might reverse soon and join it with a big plunge...
ReplyDeleteThat is what is most interesting is that there is this imbalance between Gold and Silver.
DeleteTIPS plunged too...if next downdraft is because of liquidity crisis then gold will be under 1000 in next few months as USD soars.
DeleteNew Chart posted!
ReplyDelete